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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Groundwater regulates interannual variations in evapotranspiration in a riparian semiarid ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are an important component of Earth’s carbon, water, and energy budgets. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions can significantly alter land surface fluxes in these ecosystems. In regions with groundwater-river water exchange, land surface fluxes are strongly modulated by groundwater table fluctuations in response to river stage variations; however, interactions between fluxes and groundwater remain poorly understood in drylands. Here, we use eddy covariance data collected in paired upland and riparian semiarid ecosystems during two years with contrasting river flow conditions to examine interactions among river stage conditions, water table dynamics, meteorological drivers, and ecosystem fluxes. Elevated groundwater availability resulting from groundwater-surface water exchange at the riparian site enhanced the latent heat flux (LE, the energy form of evapotranspiration), which was sustained longer in the growing season during both years. At the upland site, mean LE during the dry season differed by less than 2% between the two years. In contrast, at the riparian site contrasting river flow conditions resulted in a 41% difference in peak monthly LE between the two years. The two-year mean LE in the summer at the riparian site was twice that at the upland site. Carbon uptake (NEP) and LE were well correlated at the upland site during both years, but at the riparian site enhanced summertime LE during the high river flow year did not correspond t enhanced NEP. Our results demonstrate that enhanced groundwater availability modulated by river stage variability is a critical driver of land surface fluxes in semiarid riparian ecosystems.

Missik, Justine E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

Periods of water surplus and deficit in Northern California follow a pronounced quasi-decadal cycle. This cycle is largely driven by the frequency of atmospheric rivers (ARs), affecting the region’s wet and dry periods. Our analyses demonstrate that the quasi-decadal cycle of AR frequency relies on moisture transport associated with the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low. In observations, the Aleutian Low is shown to covary with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. A modeling experiment, which incorporates ocean observations from the equatorial Pacific into the fully coupled climate model, provides support that the quasi-decadal cycle of the Aleutian Low is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, the tropical Pacific modulates the wet season moisture transport toward California on decadal time scales, affecting AR frequency. These results provide metrics for improving interannual-to-decadal prediction of AR activity, which drives hydrological cycles in Northern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tundra Underlain By Thawing Permafrost Persistently Emits Carbon to the Atmosphere Over 15 Years of Measurements

Warming of the Arctic can stimulate microbial decomposition and release of permafrost soil carbon (C) as greenhouse gases, and thus has the potential to influence climate change. At the same time, plant growth can be stimulated and offset C release. This study presents a 15-year time series comprising chamber and eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem C exchange in a tundra ecosystem in Alaska where permafrost has been degrading due to regional warming. The site was a carbon dioxide source to the atmosphere with a cumulative total loss of 781.6 g C m -2 over the study period. Both gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were already likely higher than historical levels such that increases in R eco losses overwhelmed GPP gains in most years. This shift to a net C source to the atmosphere likely started in the early 1990s when permafrost was observed to warm and thaw at the site. Shifts in the plant community occur more slowly and are likely to constrain future GPP increases as compared to more rapid shifts in the microbial community that contribute to increased Reco. Observed rates suggest that cumulative net soil C loss of 4.18–10.00 kg C m -2 —8%–20% of the current active layer soil C pool—could occur from 2020 to the end of the century. This amount of permafrost C loss to the atmosphere represents a significant accelerating feedback to climate change if it were to occur at a similar magnitude across the permafrost region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Analysis of Two–Phase Flow in Fractal Permeability Fields

Fluid mixing in permeable media is essential in many practical applications. The mixing process is a consequence of velocity fluctuations owing to geological heterogeneities and mobility contrast of fluids. Heterogeneities in natural rocks are often spatially correlated, and their properties, such as permeability, may be described using fractal distributions. This work models the fractal characteristics of such permeability fields in which the covariance function is expressed as a power-law function. A generalized scaling relation is derived relating various fractal permeability fields using the magnitude of their fluctuations. Here, this relation reveals the self-similar behavior of two-phase flow in such permeable media. To that end, a recently developed, high-resolution numerical simulator is employed to validate the analytically derived scaling relations. Two flow problems are considered in which flow is governed by 1) a linear, and 2) a nonlinear transport equation. Due to the probabilistic representation of the fractal permeability fields, a sensitivity study is conducted for each flow scenario to determine the number of realizations required for statistical convergence. Scaling analysis is performed using ensemble averages of simulated saturation profiles and their mixing lengths. Results support the validity of the developed scaling relation across the range of investigated flow conditions at intermediate times. The dynamics of linear flow in the asymptotic regime is affected by the correlation structure of heterogeneity. In nonlinear flow, scaling behavior appears to be dominated by the degree of nonlinearity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights Into the Aerodynamic Versus Radiometric Surface Temperature Debate in Thermal-Based Evaporation Modeling

Global evaporation monitoring from Earth observation thermal infrared satellite missions is historically challenged due to the unavailability of any direct measurements of aerodynamic temperature. State-of-the-art one-source evaporation models use remotely sensed radiometric surface temperature as a substitute for the aerodynamic temperature and apply empirical corrections to accommodate for their inequality. This introduces substantial uncertainty in operational drought mapping over complex landscapes. By employing a non-parametric model, we show that evaporation can be directly retrieved from thermal satellite data without the need of any empirical correction. Independent evaluation of evaporation in a broad spectrum of biome and aridity yielded statistically significant results when compared with eddy covariance observations. While our simplified model provides a new perspective to advance spatio-temporal evaporation mapping from any thermal remote sensing mission, the direct retrieval of aerodynamic temperature also generates the highly required insight on the critical role of biophysical interactions in global evaporation research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeled Surface-Atmosphere Fluxes From Paired Sites in the Upper Great Lakes Region Using Neural Networks

The eddy covariance (EC) method is one of the most widely used approaches to quantify surface-atmosphere fluxes. However, scaling up from a single EC tower to the landscape remains an open challenge. To address this, we used 63 site years of data to examine simulated annual and growing season sums of carbon fluxes from three paired land-cover type sites of corn, restored-prairie, and switchgrass ecosystems. This was also done across the landscape by modeling fluxes using different land-cover type input data. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to model net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and gross primary production (GPP) at one paired site using environmental observations from the second site only. With a mean spatial separation of 11 km between paired sites, we were able to model annual sums of NEE, R eco , and GPP with uncertainties of 20%, 22%, and 8%, respectively, relative to observation sums. When considering the growing season only, model uncertainties were 17%, 22%, and 9%, respectively for the three flux terms. We also show that ANN models can estimate sums of R eco and GPP fluxes without needing the constraint of similar land-cover-type, with annual uncertainties of 12% and 10%. These results provide new insights to scaling up observations from one EC site beyond the footprint of the EC tower to multiple land-cover types across the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lagged Wetland CH 4 Flux Response in a Historically Wet Year

While a stimulating effect of plant primary productivity on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has been well documented, links between gross primary productivity (GPP) and wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are less well investigated. Determination of the influence of primary productivity on wetland CH 4 emissions (FCH 4 ) is complicated by confounding influences of water table level and temperature on CH 4 production, which also vary seasonally. Here, in this work, we evaluate the link between preceding GPP and subsequent FCH 4 at two fens in Wisconsin using eddy covariance flux towers, Lost Creek (US-Los) and Allequash Creek (US-ALQ). Both wetlands are mosaics of forested and shrub wetlands, with US-Los being larger in scale and having a more open canopy. Co-located sites with multi-year observations of flux, hydrology, and meteorology provide an opportunity to measure and compare lag effects on FCH4 without interference due to differing climate. Daily average FCH4 from US-Los reached a maximum of 47.7 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 during the study period, while US-ALQ was more than double at 117.9 ηmol CH 4 m -2 s -1 . The lagged influence of GPP on temperature-normalized FCH4 (T air -FCH 4 ) was weaker and more delayed in a year with anomalously high precipitation than a following drier year at both sites. FCH 4 at US-ALQ was lower coincident with higher stream discharge in the wet year (2019), potentially due to soil gas flushing during high precipitation events and lower water temperatures. Better understanding of the lagged influence of GPP on FCH 4 due to this study has implications for climate modeling and more accurate carbon budgeting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Diurnal Dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity Using Observations From the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite‐R Series at an Oak Savanna Ecosystem

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle and satellite-based GPP estimates have long been used to study the trends and interannual variability of GPP. With recent updates to geostationary satellites, we can now explore the diurnal variability of GPP at a comparable spatial resolution to polar-orbiting satellites and at temporal frequencies comparable to eddy covariance (EC) tower sites. We used observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) to test the ability of subdaily satellite data to capture the shifts in the diurnal course of GPP at an oak savanna EC site in California, USA that is subject to seasonal soil moisture declines. We compared three methods to estimate GPP: (a) a light-use efficiency model, (b) a linear relationship between the product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetically active radiation (LIN-NIR v P) and EC tower GPP, and (c) a light response curve (LRC-NIR v P) between NIR v P and EC GPP. The LRC-NIR v P achieved the lowest mean absolute error for winter (2 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), spring (2.51 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), summer (1.43 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ), and fall (1.35 µmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). The ecosystem experienced the largest shift in daily peak GPP in relation to the peak of incoming solar radiation toward the morning hours during the dry summers. The LRC-NIRvP and the light-use efficiency model were in agreement with these patterns of a shift in peak daily GPP toward the morning hours during summer. Our results can help develop diurnal estimates of GPP from geostationary satellites that are sensitive to fluctuating environmental conditions during the day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse Radiation Forcing Constraints on Gross Primary Productivity and Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration

Abstract The diffuse radiation fertilization effect—the increase in plant productivity in the presence of higher diffuse radiation ( K ↓,d )—is an important yet understudied aspect of atmosphere‐biosphere interactions and can modify the terrestrial carbon, energy, and water budgets. The K ↓,d fertilization effect links the carbon cycle with clouds and aerosols, all of which are large sources of uncertainties for our current understanding of the Earth system and for future climate projections. Here we establish to what extent observational and modeling uncertainty in sunlight's diffuse fraction ( k d ) affects simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and terrestrial evapotranspiration ( λE ). We find only 48 eddy covariance sites with simultaneous sufficient measurements of K ↓,d with none in the tropical climate zone, making it difficult to constrain this mechanism globally using observations. Using a land modeling framework based on the latest version of the Community Land Model, we find that global GPP ranges from 114 Pg C year −1 when using k d forcing from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 reanalysis to a ∼7% higher value of 122 Pg C year −1 when using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System satellite product, with especially strong differences apparent over the tropical region (mean increase ∼9%). The differences in λE , although smaller (−0.4%) due to competing changes in shaded and sunlit leaf transpiration, can be greater than regional impacts of individual forcing agents like aerosols. Our results demonstrate the importance of comprehensively and systematically validating the simulated k d by atmosphere modules as well as the response to differences in k d within land modules across Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Turbulence Structures in the Very Stable Boundary Layer Under the Influence of Wind Profile Distortion

Abstract In very stable boundary layers (VSBL), a “cocktail” of submeso motions routinely result in elevated mean wind speed maxima above the ground, acting as a new source of turbulence generation. This new source of turbulent kinetic energy enhances turbulent mixing and causes mean wind profile distortion (WPD). As a results, this transient distortion in the wind profile adjusts the classical log‐law. Addressing how WPD‐induced turbulence regulates flow structures, turbulent fluxes, and transitions in stability regimes across layers remains a challenge. Eddy covariance data measured at four levels on a 62‐m tower are employed to address these questions. It is shown that the WPD initiates large turbulent eddies that penetrate downward, leading to enhanced vertical mixing and comparable turbulent transport efficiencies across layers. As a consequence, turbulence intensity and fluxes are increased. As the WPD is intensified, turbulent fluxes and turbulent flux transport caused by large eddies are also enhanced, leading to a transition from very stable to weakly stable regimes. Due to the influence of WPD‐induced large eddies, the large‐eddy turbulent Prandtl number does not deviate appreciably from unity and the partitioning between turbulent kinetic and potential energies is linearly related to the gradient Richardson number.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Peak Rain Rate Sensitivity to Observed Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Turbulence in Continental Warm Shallow Clouds During CACTI

Abstract Warm clouds strongly affect Earth's energy budget but remain imperfectly represented in climate models, partly due to the complexity and covariability of relevant processes influencing warm rain. This work presents a detailed analysis of different factors affecting rain rate peak intensity (RR) in continental warm clouds. Clouds were identified with vertically pointing radar and lidar observations and categorized via a temperature‐based cloud type classification algorithm from which warm clouds were isolated. Observations and retrievals of liquid water path (LWP), cloud condensation nuclei concentration (N CCN ), cloud depth, and cloud duration of more than 3,000 separate warm clouds sampled during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign are analyzed in this work. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models are applied to assess the relative impact of these variables on RR. Overall, RR tends to increase as cloud depth, LWP, and cloud duration increase, or N CCN decreases. Cloud depth affects RR the most while N CCN impacts it the least. When considering over 170 warm clouds observed at least 1 hr in which in‐cloud turbulence is retrieved, the effect of N CCN on RR remains most likely suppressive, but it is not significant at a 75% level for MLR and is highly uncertain for RF. The impact of in‐cloud turbulence depends on the moment and location it is sampled. Cloud base turbulence around the time of RR suppresses RR, while cloud top turbulence effects are inconclusive. Possible difficulties in isolating robust CCN and turbulence effects on RR are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction

Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hyperspectral Reflectance for Measuring Canopy‐Level Nutrients and Photosynthesis in a Salt Marsh

Abstract Salt marsh ecosystems are underrepresented in process‐based models due to their unique location across the terrestrial–aquatic interface. Particularly, the role of leaf nutrients on canopy photosynthesis (F A ) remains unclear, despite their relevance for regulating vegetation growth. We combined multiyear information of canopy‐level nutrients and eddy covariance measurements with canopy surface hyperspectral remote sensing (CSHRS) to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of F A in a temperate salt marsh. We found that F A showed a positive relationship with canopy‐level N at the ecosystem scale and for areas dominated by Spartina cynosuroides , but not for areas dominated by short S. alterniflora . F A showed a positive relationship with canopy‐level P, K, and Na, but a negative relationship with Fe, for areas associated with S. cynosuroides , S. alterniflora , and at the ecosystem scale. We used partial least squares regression (PLSR) with CSHRS and found statistically significant data–model agreements to predict canopy‐level nutrients and F A . The red‐edge electromagnetic region and ∼770 nm showed the highest contribution of variance in PLSR models for canopy‐level nutrients and F A , but we propose that underlying sediment biogeochemistry can complicate interpretation of reflectance measurements. Our findings highlight the relevance of spatial variability in salt marshes vegetation and the promising application of CSHRS for linking information of canopy‐level nutrients with F A . We call for further development of canopy surface hyperspectral methods and analyses across salt marshes to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global environmental change.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaporation and Transpiration From Multiple Proximal Forests and Wetlands

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering ecosystem function, including water flux to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration (ET). ET is made up of evaporation (E) via non‐stomatal surfaces, and transpiration (T) through plant stomata which are impacted by global changes in different ways. E and T are difficult to measure independently at the ecosystem scale, especially across multiple sites that represent different land use and land management strategies. To address this gap in understanding, we applied flux variance similarity (FVS) to quantify how E and T differ across 13 different ecosystems measured using eddy covariance in a 10 × 10 km area from the CHEESEHEAD19 experiment in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study sites included eight forests with a large deciduous broadleaf component, three evergreen needleleaf forests, and two wetlands. Average T/ET for the study period averaged nearly 52% in forested sites and 45% in wetlands, with larger values after excluding periods following rain events when evaporation from canopy interception may be expected. A dominance analysis revealed that environmental variables explained on average 69% of the variance of half‐hourly T, which decreased from summer to autumn. Deciduous and evergreen forests showed similar E trajectories over time despite differences in vegetation phenology, and vapor pressure deficit explained some 13% of the variance E in wetlands but only 5% or less in forests. Retrieval of E and T within a dense network of flux towers lends confidence that FVS is a promising approach for comparing ecosystem hydrology across multiple sites to improve our process‐based understanding of ecosystem water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗