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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Effect of Background Pressure on the Plasma Oscillation Characteristics of the HiVHAc Hall Thruster

During a component compatibility test of the NASA HiVHAc Hall thruster, a high-speed camera and a set of high-speed Langmuir probes were implemented to study the effect of varying facility background pressure on thruster operation. The results show a rise in the oscillation frequency of the breathing mode with rising background pressure, which is hypothesized to be due to a shortening accelerationionization zone. An attempt is made to apply a simplified ingestion model to the data. The combined results are used to estimate the maximum acceptable background pressure for performance and wear testing.

Hall Thrusters↗
NASA NTRS1990

Instrumentation and robotic image processing using top-down model control

A top-down image processing scheme is described. A three-dimensional model of a robotic working environment, with robot manipulators, workpieces, cameras, and on-the-scene visual enhancements is employed to control and direct the image processing, so that rapid, robust algorithms act in an efficient manner to continually update the model. Only the model parameters are communicated, so that savings in bandwidth are achieved. This image compression by modeling is especially important for control of space telerobotics. The background for this scheme lies in an hypothesis of human vision put forward by the senior author and colleagues almost 20 years ago - the Scanpath Theory. Evidence was obtained that repetitive sequences of saccadic eye movements, the scanpath, acted as the checking phase of visual pattern recognition. Further evidence was obtained that the scanpaths were apparently generated by a cognitive model and not directly by the visual image. This top-down theory of human vision was generalized in some sense to the frame in artificial intelligence. Another source of the concept arose from bioengineering instrumentation for measuring the pupil and eye movements with infrared video cameras and special-purpose hardware.

Stark, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS1992

Geometric-optical bidirectional reflectance modeling of the discrete crown vegetation canopy - Effect of crown shape and mutual shadowing

Many natural vegetation covers can be regarded as assemblages of plant crowns, on a background, which interact with light as discrete objects. On this basis, geometric optics furnish an approach to the modeling of vegetation canopies that captures the most important features of such growths' bidirectional measurements. Attention is presently given to models which approximate these phenomena and relate the size, shape, and count density of plant crowns to viewing and illumination positions and to crown-background reflectance contrasts.

Li, Xiaowen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer

Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 , Ω m 0 = 0.288 ± 0.017 , and other constraints from lower-redshift, non-CMB, expansion-rate data

Here, we use updated Type Ia Pantheon+ supernova, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble parameter (now also accounting for correlations) data, as well as new reverberation-measured C $\tiny{IV}$ quasar data, and quasar angular size, H $\tiny{II}$ starburst galaxy, reverberation-measured Mg $\tiny{II}$ quasar, and Amati correlated gamma-ray burst data to constrain cosmological parameters. We show that these data sets result in mutually consistent constraints and jointly use them to constrain cosmological parameters in six different spatially-flat and non-flat cosmological models. Our analysis provides summary model independent determinations of two key cosmological parameters: the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.8 ± 1.3 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.288 ± 0.017. Our summary error bars are 2.4 and 2.3 times those obtained using the flat ΛCDM model and Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data. Our H 0 value is very consistent with that from the local expansion rate based on the Tip of the Red Giant Branch and Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) data, is 2σ lower than that from the local expansion rate based on Cepheid and SN Ia data, and is 2σ higher than that in the flat ΛCDM model based on Planck TT,TE,EE + lowE + lensing CMB data. Our data compilation shows at most mild evidence for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, but more significant evidence for dark energy dynamics, 2σ or larger in the spatially-flat dynamical dark energy models we study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Los Alamos National Laboratory R&D Intern

This report details the responsibilities, outcomes, and project details of a summer R&D internship at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). LANL is a multidisciplinary laboratory that focuses on current cutting-edge research in many fields such as national security, engineering, materials science, computational modeling, and advanced manufacturing. The goal of the internship project was to work with lab engineers and resources to develop an energy absorbing structure for high-velocity impact applications. The successful development of this technology and methodology would not only positively impact future project funding but also contribute to the laboratory's commitment to solve national security challenges through simultaneous excellence. Such devices would also support efforts surrounding the research and development of energy absorbing structures and would provide new vital information backed by experimentation. Different computational and modeling methods were used to design these structures, in addition to qualitative background information provided by past literature. The resultant designs were successfully tested, and the test results were successfully quantified. From these results, new computational methods were developed through python programming and modeling to predict ideal materialistic properties for these structures given a sufficiently defined application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

The evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster

A simple model is presented for the evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster. Monte Carlo simulations are given for an initial population of 50,000 binaries against a fixed background population of 500,000 single stars in a tidally truncated cluster model. Individual histories of all binaries are followed through mass segregation, scattering recoil, escape from the cluster, or coalescence. It is found that most binaries are destroyed by binary-binary interactions, with the rest escaping in the point-mass approximation. In a more realistic model, the majority of the rest merge. At any instant, most of the remaining binaries are drifting in toward the center before their first strong encounter. A typical binary spends most of its active life in or near the cluster core. The few binaries which receive a recoil sufficient to place them in the halo past the half-mass radius remain there long enough to make a significant contribution to the radial binary distribution.

Hut, Piet↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Use of High Spectral Resolution Bands for Estimating Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (A Par)

Most remote sensing estimations of vegetation variables such as Leaf Area Index (LAI), Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR), and phytomass are made using broad band sensors with a bandwidth of approximately 100 nm. However, high resolution spectrometers are available and have not been fully exploited for the purpose of improving estimates of vegetation variables. A study directed to investigate the use of high spectral resolution spectroscopy for remote sensing estimates of APAR in vegetation canopies in the presence of nonphotosynthetic background materials such as soil and leaf litter is presented. A high spectral resolution method defined as the Chlorophyll Absorption Ratio Index (CARI) was developed for minimizing the effects of nonphotosynthetic materials in the remote estimates of APAR. CARI utilizes three bands at 550, 670, and 700 nm with bandwidth of 10 nm. Simulated canopy reflectance of a range of LAI were generated with the SAIL model using measurements of 42 different soil types as canopy background. CARI obtained from the simulated canopy reflectance was compared with the broad band vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and Simple Ratio (SR)). CARI reduced the effect of nonphotosynthetic background materials in the assessment of vegetation canopy APAR more effectively than broad band vegetation indices.

Kim, Moon S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
NASA NTRS2013

Jovian Plasmas Torus Interaction with Europa. Plasma Wake Structure and Effect of Inductive Magnetic Field: 3D Hybrid Kinetic Simulation

The hybrid kinetic model supports comprehensive simulation of the interaction between different spatial and energetic elements of the Europa moon-magnetosphere system with respect to a variable upstream magnetic field and flux or density distributions of plasma and energetic ions, electrons, and neutral atoms. This capability is critical for improving the interpretation of the existing Europa flyby measurements from the Galileo Orbiter mission, and for planning flyby and orbital measurements (including the surface and atmospheric compositions) for future missions. The simulations are based on recent models of the atmosphere of Europa (Cassidy et al., 2007; Shematovich et al., 2005). In contrast to previous approaches with MHD simulations, the hybrid model allows us to fully take into account the finite gyroradius effect and electron pressure, and to correctly estimate the ion velocity distribution and the fluxes along the magnetic field (assuming an initial Maxwellian velocity distribution for upstream background ions). Photoionization, electron-impact ionization, charge exchange and collisions between the ions and neutrals are also included in our model. We consider the models with Oþ þ and Sþ þ background plasma, and various betas for background ions and electrons, and pickup electrons. The majority of O2 atmosphere is thermal with an extended non-thermal population (Cassidy et al., 2007). In this paper, we discuss two tasks: (1) the plasma wake structure dependence on the parameters of the upstream plasma and Europa's atmosphere (model I, cases (a) and (b) with a homogeneous Jovian magnetosphere field, an inductive magnetic dipole and high oceanic shell conductivity); and (2) estimation of the possible effect of an induced magnetic field arising from oceanic shell conductivity. This effect was estimated based on the difference between the observed and modeled magnetic fields (model II, case (c) with an inhomogeneous Jovian magnetosphere field, an inductive magnetic dipole and low oceanic shell conductivity).

Jovian magnetosphere↗
NASA NTRS1978

The role of atmospheric shear, turbulence and a ground plane on the dissipation of aircraft vortex wakes

Enhanced dispersion of two-dimensional trailed vortex pairs within simplified neutral atmospheric backgrounds is studied numerically for three conditions: when the pair is imbedded in a constant turbulent bath (constant dissipation); when the pair is subjected to a mean cross-wind shear; and when the pair is near the ground. Turbulent transport is modeled using second-order closure turbulent transport theory. The turbulent background fields are constructed using a superequilibrium approximation. The computed results allow several general conclusions to be drawn with regard to the reduction in circulation of the vortex pair and the rolling moment induced on a following aircraft: (1) the rate of decay of a vortex pair increases with increasing background dissipation rate; (2) cross-wind shear disperses the vortex whose vorticity is opposite to the background; and (3) the proximity of a ground plane reduces the hazard of the pair by scrubbing. The phenomenon of vortex bounce is explained in terms of secondary vorticity produced at the ground plane. Qualitative comparisons are made with available experimental data, and inferences of these results upon the persistence of aircraft trailing vortices are discussed.

Bilanin, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Strong gravitational lensing statistics as a test of cosmogonic scenarios

Gravitational lensing statistics can provide a direct and powerful test of cosmic structure formation theories. Since lensing tests, directly, the magnitude of the nonlinear mass density fluctuations on lines of sight to distant objects, no issues of 'bias' (of mass fluctuations with respect to galaxy density fluctuations) exist here, although lensing observations provide their own ambiguities of interpretation. We develop numerical techniques for generating model density distributions with the very large spatial dynamic range required by lensing considerations and for identifying regions of the simulations capable of multiple image lensing in a conservative and computationally efficient way that should be accurate for splittings significantly larger than 3 seconds. Applying these techniques to existing standard Cold dark matter (CDM) (Omega = 1) and Primeval Baryon Isocurvature (PBI) (Omega = 0.2) simulations (normalized to the Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE) amplitude), we find that the CDM model predicts large splitting (greater than 8 seconds) lensing events roughly an order-of-magnitude more frequently than the PBI model. Under the reasonable but idealized assumption that lensing structrues can be modeled as singular isothermal spheres (SIS), the predictions can be directly compared to observations of lensing events in quasar samples. Several large splitting (Delta Theta is greater than 8 seconds) cases are predicted in the standard CDM model (the exact number being dependent on the treatment of amplification bias), whereas none is observed. In a formal sense, the comparison excludes the CDM model at high confidence (essentially for the same reason that CDM predicts excessive small-scale cosmic velocity dispersions.) A very rough assessment of low-density but flat CDM model (Omega = 0.3, Lambda/3H(sup 2 sub 0) = 0.7) indicates a far lower and probably acceptable level of lensing. The PBI model is consistent with, but not strongly tested by, the available lensing data, and other open models would presumably do as well as PBI. These preliminary conclusions and the assumptions on which they are based can be tested and the analysis can be applied to other cosmogonic models by straightforward extension of the work presented here.

Cen, Renyue↗
NASA NTRS1993

A SIMULINK environment for flight dynamics and control analysis: Application to the DHC-2 Beaver. Part 1: Implementation of a model library in SIMULINK. Part 2: Nonlinear analysis of the Beaver autopilot

The design of advanced Automatic Aircraft Control Systems (AACS's) can be improved upon considerably if the designer can access all models and tools required for control system design and analysis through a graphical user-interface, from within one software environment. This MSc-thesis presents the first step in the development of such an environment, which is currently being done at the Section for Stability and Control of Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. The environment is implemented within the commercially available software package MATLAB/SIMULINK. The report consists of two parts. Part I gives a detailed description of the AACS design environment. The heart of this environment is formed by the SIMULINK implementation of a nonlinear aircraft model in block-diagram format. The model has been worked out for the old laboratory aircraft of the Faculty, the De Havilland DHC-2 'Beaver', but due to its modular structure, it can easily be adapted for other aircraft. Part I also describes MATLAB programs which can be applied for finding steady-state trimmed-flight conditions and for linearization of the aircraft model, and it shows how the built-in simulation routines of SIMULINK have been used for open-loop analysis of the aircraft dynamics. Apart from the implementation of the models and tools, a thorough treatment of the theoretical backgrounds is presented. Part II of this report presents a part of an autopilot design process for the 'Beaver' aircraft, which clearly demonstrates the power and flexibility of the AACS design environment from part I. Evaluations of all longitudinal and lateral control laws by means of nonlinear simulations are treated in detail. The AACS design environment from part I proved to be a very useful tool for designing the control laws of the 'Beaver' autopilot within a very tight time-schedule. The autopilot design process itself will be used as a guideline for future AACS research at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. Flight tests of the 'Beaver' autopilot, done after evaluating the control laws in the SIMULINK package, proved to be quite successful. In the future, the AACS design package will evolve into a standardized, integrated design environment which can be applied to virtually any type of aircraft. The AACS design cycle will be shortened further by developing tools for automatically porting control laws from the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment to a piloted real-time flight simulator and the Flight Control Computers of the aircraft.

Flight Control System Design↗
DOE OSTI2023

Converting dark matter to dark radiation does not solve cosmological tensions

Tensions between cosmological parameters (in particular the local expansion rate H 0 and the amplitude of matter clustering S8) inferred from low-redshift data and data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large-scale structure (LSS) experiments have inspired many extensions to the standard cosmological model, LCDM. Models which simultaneously lessen both tensions are of particular interest. We consider one scenario with the potential for such a resolution, in which some fraction of the dark matter has converted into dark radiation since the release of the CMB. Such a scenario encompasses and generalizes the more standard "decaying dark matter" model, allowing additional flexibility in the rate and time at which the dark matter converts into dark radiation. In this paper, we constrain this scenario with a focus on exploring whether it can solve (or reduce) these tensions. We find that such a model is effectively ruled out by CMB data, in particular by the reduced peak-smearing due to CMB lensing on the power spectrum and the excess integrated Sachs--Wolfe (ISW) signal caused by the additional dark energy density required to preserve flatness after dark matter conversion into dark radiation. Thus, such a model does not have the power to reduce these tensions without further modifications. This conclusion extends and generalizes related conclusions derived for the standard decaying dark matter model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Target Recognition Using Neural Networks for Model Deformation Measurements

Optical measurements provide a non-invasive method for measuring deformation of wind tunnel models. Model deformation systems use targets mounted or painted on the surface of the model to identify known positions, and photogrammetric methods are used to calculate 3-D positions of the targets on the model from digital 2-D images. Under ideal conditions, the reflective targets are placed against a dark background and provide high-contrast images, aiding in target recognition. However, glints of light reflecting from the model surface, or reduced contrast caused by light source or model smoothness constraints, can compromise accurate target determination using current algorithmic methods. This paper describes a technique using a neural network and image processing technologies which increases the reliability of target recognition systems. Unlike algorithmic methods, the neural network can be trained to identify the characteristic patterns that distinguish targets from other objects of similar size and appearance and can adapt to changes in lighting and environmental conditions.

Ross, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗