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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fast Reactor Physics Model Verification Studies using ARC and PyARC Workflows

PyARC was recently developed at Argonne National Laboratory to automate many of the tasks required in the ARC (Argonne Reactor Computation) fast reactor simulation workflow, from input file generation, code execution, data transfer between ARC codes, and output postprocessing. PyARC will likely be the path forward to train new users of the ARC codes with the goal of wide adoption by the national laboratories, academia, and industry. In particular, for the ANL-JAEA collaboration under the Civil Nuclear Working Group (CNWG) project agreement NE-01, PyARC will be used to model the Joyo and EBR-II reactors for comparisons with measured data and calculated results from JAEA (Task 3: Fast Reactor Fuel and Core). As an additional avenue for verification and validation, this report investigates the use of PyARC towards a variety of existing ARC-based reactor models, in order to understand its efficacy in replicating the behavior of base ARC codes and better understand any limitations within modeling realistic fast reactor problems. To this end, PyARC was used to model the Joyo MKI, RBEC Benchmark-M, PRISM Mod-B, and EBR-II Run 138B cores, and its results were compared to those from existing ARC-based models. It was found that for hexagonal-based geometries PyARC was able to replicate the behavior of ARC codes to within 10 pcm for small reactor cores, and ~150pcm difference in eigenvalue for larger cores. These discrepancies are attributed primarily to differences in local mesh refinement options between ARC and PyARC, which currently cannot be resolved with PyARC’s latest version (1.6.0). In some of these cases, PyARC was used to model steady-state problems with initial core compositions originating from a prior REBUS depletion calculation. While PyARC was not designed to support such steady-state calculations, workarounds were applied to replicate the behavior of ARC-based calculations as closely as possible. Thus, these results demonstrate the wide extent to which they can be applied to fast reactor problems while still providing immense benefit to the user in terms of automating and standardizing common routines within the fast reactor analysis workflow. This study concluded that PyARC will be suitable for modeling the steady-state conditions of the EBR-II and Joyo fast reactors as part of the CNWG project agreement.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multifractal Characterization of Distribution Synchrophasors for Cybersecurity Defense of Smart Grids

“Source ID Mix” spoofing emerged as a new type of cyber-attack on Distribution Synchrophasors (DS) where adversaries have the capability to swap the source information of DS without changing the measurement values. Accurate detection of such a highly-deceptive attack is a challenging task especially when the spoofing attack happens on short fragments of DS recorded within a relatively small geographical scale. Herein this letter proposes an effective approach to detect this cyber-attack by realizing the multifractal characteristics of DS measurements. First, the multifractal cross-correlation of DS measured at multiple intra-state locations is revealed. Then the derived correlation is integrated with weighted two-dimensional multifractal surface interpolation to reconstruct quasi high-resolution signals. Finally, informative location-specific signatures are extracted from the high-resolution DS and they are integrated with advanced machine learning techniques for source authentication. Experiments using the real-life DS are performed to verify the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The HTAP_v3 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2018) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the global and regional atmospheric modelling community's need of a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3, an ad hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including Japan and South Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO $x$ , CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1º × 0.1º and time intervals of months and years, covering the period 2000–2018. The emissions are further disaggregated into 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past 2 decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policymaking, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Nonparametric Estimation of Operators between Infinite Dimensional Spaces

Learning operators between infinitely dimensional spaces is an important learning task arising in machine learning, imaging science, mathematical modeling and simulations, etc. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of Lipschitz operators using deep neural networks. Non-asymptotic upper bounds are derived for the generalization error of the empirical risk minimizer over a properly chosen network class. Under the assumption that the target operator exhibits a low dimensional structure, our error bounds decay as the training sample size increases, with an attractive fast rate depending on the intrinsic dimension in our estimation. Our assumptions cover most scenarios in real applications and our results give rise to fast rates by exploiting low dimensional structures of data in operator estimation. We also investigate the influence of network structures (e.g., network width, depth, and sparsity) on the generalization error of the neural network estimator and propose a general suggestion on the choice of network structures to maximize the learning efficiency quantitatively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of Dry Cask Risk Tools

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has repeatedly expressed a desire to increase the use of risk in its decision-making. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Policy Statement published in 1995 formalized the Commission’s commitment to risk-informed regulation through the expanded use of PRA. While a great deal of work has been done to incorporate risk insights into the regulatory framework for at-power nuclear reactors. Far less progress has been made to risk inform the dry-casks and nuclear waste transportation areas of the nuclear fuel cycle. INL was tasked with incorporating the information from the two completed dry cask PRAs as well as any additional available information into a tool that helps the NRC use those insights to identify levels of risk at various stages in the nuclear waste cycle. The first task was to address the License Amendment Request (LAR) Process for Dry Cask storage, the second task is for the incorporate transportation into the tool, and the third and final task will be incorporate any additional regulatory applications for dry cask storage. This report covers the first task of the tool and will eventually incorporate the remaining two tasks may be completed in the future and built off the model described here. Task 1 specifically asked to incorporate the risk insights into the process for determining and prioritizing review of license amendment changes related to storage applications by outlining a resource allocation strategy and defining recommendations of for the depth and breadth of the LAR review. It was requested that the tool be similar in design to the SDP notebooks/worksheets and contain quantitative, qualitative, or semi-quantitative approaches to assessing the risk of the change. The final tool that was selected by INL to be developed was a flowchart and associated rationale document that allows the reviewer to quickly assess potential LAR changes and their associated risks as well as the rationale behind the risk categorization. This risk categorization will lead to specific actionable recommendations to expect from a change of that specific category. This allows for a more consistent review process as well as improving the overall efficiency of the review itself.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

RAG for FLAG: AI Assistance for a Physics Code

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become an important tool in scientific research, where significant efforts are underway to develop tools that will expedite the research process. One area of particular impact is scientific software, which can be particularly complex, and therefore time consuming to learn and use effectively. AI assistants are increasingly helping to streamline the process by performing tasks such as interactively answering user questions or suggesting solutions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) develops several advanced scientific codes, such as FLAG, which can be used to run multiphysics simulations. With this study, our goal was to develop an AI assistant for FLAG that could help make the process of understanding the software and running physics simulations more efficient. To develop an AI assistant for FLAG, we used a method called retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), which is a technique that uses information from relevant data sources to enhance the accuracy of large language models (LLMs). We used the FLAG user manual and other FLAG documentation as the knowledge base for the RAG system. When a user provides a query, RAG retrieves relevant sections from the knowledge base in response, then uses those excerpts to generate grounded and contextually rich answers. We found that our AI assistant was able to provide context aware answers and source references to user queries. To evaluate performance, we developed a set of 40 benchmark questions and compared the accuracy of the responses to those of two standard LLMs without retrieval. Our AI assistant significantly outperformed the standard LLMs at answering FLAG-related questions, with an 82.5% accuracy rate, compared to 47.5% for both of the standard LLMs. This has the potential to make the process of learning and using FLAG much easier, especially for new users. Ultimately, it supports LANL’s broader mission by empowering scientists and engineers to focus more on discovery and analysis rather than on navigating complex software systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Search for efficient formulations for Hamiltonian simulation of non-Abelian lattice gauge theories

Hamiltonian formulation of lattice gauge theories (LGTs) is the most natural framework for the purpose of quantum simulation, an area of research that is growing with advances in quantum-computing algorithms and hardware. It, therefore, remains an important task to identify the most accurate, while computationally economic, Hamiltonian formulation(s) in such theories, considering the necessary truncation imposed on the Hilbert space of gauge bosons with any finite computing resources. This paper is a first step toward addressing this question in the case of non-Abelian LGTs, which further require the imposition of non-Abelian Gauss’s laws on the Hilbert space, introducing additional computational complexity. Focusing on the case of SU(2) LGT in 1+1 dimensions coupled to one flavor of fermionic matter, a number of different formulations of the original Kogut-Susskind framework are analyzed with regard to the dependence of the dimension of the physical Hilbert space on boundary conditions, system’s size, and the cutoff on the excitations of gauge bosons. The impact of such dependencies on the accuracy of the spectrum and dynamics obtained from a Hamiltonian computation is examined, and the (classical) computational-resource requirements given these considerations are studied. Besides the well-known angular-momentum formulation of the theory, the cases of purely fermionic and purely bosonic formulations (with open boundary conditions), and the Loop-String-Hadron formulation are analyzed, along with a brief discussion of a Quantum-Link-Model formulation of the same theory. Clear advantages are found in working with the Loop-String-Hadron framework which implements non-Abelian Gauss’s laws a priori using a complete set of gauge-invariant operators. Although small lattices are studied in the numerical analysis of this work, and only the simplest algorithms are considered, a range of conclusions will be applicable to larger systems and potentially to higher dimensions. Future studies will extend this investigation to the analysis of resource requirements for quantum simulations of non-Abelian LGT, with the goal of shedding light on the most efficient Hamiltonian formulation of gauge theories of relevance in nature

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mechanical Properties and Deformation Behavior of Additively Manufactured 316L Stainless Steel (FY2020)

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program plans to build most of the TCR core components through additive manufacturing (AM) processes. These processes include laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) for the metallic (316L) components and the newly developed combined process of binderjet printing and chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) for the SiC fuel matrix. Mechanical testing and characterization tasks have been carried out since the beginning of the TCR program to (1) build a property database for the AM materials that will be used in TCR core and (2) to assess the materials’ performance in TCR-relevant conditions. This document reports the outcome of the testing and characterization efforts for the fiscal year with a focus on the mechanical performance data of AM 316L stainless steel (SS). Baseline tensile testing over a wide temperature range of room temperature–600 °C was completed for the AM 316L alloy in as-built, stress-relieved, and solution-annealed conditions. The as-built 316L showed the highest strength, and the alloy after the post-build treatments showed reduced strengths in the low-strain range. However, the strength differences among the AM materials became insignificant in the later part of deformation. Furthermore, regardless of post-build processing, the AM 316L SS showed higher strength and comparable ductility when compared with wrought 316L SS. Thermal creep testing and microstructural evolution during creep deformation were also performed under selected conditions. It was found that the AM 316L steel showed the best creep resistance in the stress-relieved condition. In-situ tensile tests were performed using scanning electron microscopy and 1-ID beamline at the Advanced Photon Source to elucidate the deformation and fracture behavior of AM 316L and the evolution of crystalline stress, dislocations, and pore distribution. Using these in-situ testing data, an in-depth analysis of the roles of microstructural features in deformation and fracture processes is presented herein. The final section of the document introduces ongoing and future activities for materials testing and characterization, including irradiation effect studies and ball punch testing on AM 316L and AM IN718 alloys.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

5.1.6 Demo #6: NanoStitch (NAWAStitch) Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation

The overall objective of the NanoStitch Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation Demonstration project was to determine the value proposition of adding NanoStitch to rapid-cure composite systems for structures used in the expanding sector of advanced air mobility (AAM) and specifically electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The expected value proposition was stronger composite parts, with new multifunctional attributes, that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. NanoStitch is a new composite innovation where a contiguous vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) forest is located between each ply of a laminate composite resulting in improved mechanical properties as well as other multifunctional properties such as enhanced thermal and electrical conductivity. NanoStitch was originally distributed by N12, later acquired by NAWA Technologies, now called NAWAStitch, and henceforth referred to in this document as NAWAStitch. Two significant evaluations were framed to help meet the overall objective. First, was Task 1 to evaluate the effects that adding NAWAStitch to a rapid cure material system would have on the mechanical and processing properties of the material. Second, was Task 2 to evaluate the workability of adding NAWAStitch to practical flight demonstration articles. From previous research, it was already known that the application of NAWAStitch to a composite structure can enhance the mechanical properties of that structure. However, this project will help the engineering community understand those benefits and the basic structural strength values to apply when incorporating NAWAStitch material into composite structure that utilizes a rapid-cure resin system, which is novel. Testing showed that by adding NAWAStitch to the prepreg, most material properties were improved because the VACNTs strengthened the resin to fiber interface, and the interface itself, between plies. For example compression strength improved by more than 20%, and erosion resistance by more than 50%. The UDRI team identified two flight demonstration articles through discussions with Aurora Flight Sciences (Aurora) and reviewing literature on air mobility and the eVTOL market. The demonstration articles were a thin skin honeycomb panel and a section from an eVTOL propeller blade. The manufacturing and testing trials of the demonstration articles were as follows: • NAWAStitch added no manufacturing complexity or detriment to the article physical qualities, while at the same time added multifunctional properties such as enhanced rain erosion and electrothermal de-icing besides enhanced mechanical properties • VACNTs did not increase or hurt the mechanical properties of the interface between honeycomb core materials and the thin skin face sheet • Demonstrated successful de-icing function in an eVTOL propeller meeting real-world specifications in uniformity and endurance • Multifunctional eVTOL propeller cost analysis showed a cost savings of at least 67 % for a single propeller blade with multifunctional de-icing capability and improved mechanical properties which equates to a potential savings of $10,116 per eVTOL aircraft with six three-bladed propellers Overall, the results of this project can provide additional tools for the composite industry to optimize energy efficiency through faster and stronger composite parts that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. Additionally, the results of this effort can help US industry like NAWA America set the stage for rapid growth and establishment of a manufacturing facility in Ohio. The project has given NAWA America the basic understanding of how the addition of VACNTs to a composite structure can affect the mechanical properties and hence point them to potential commercial applications. The project has also provided Teijin Carbon US with another potential material application for their rapid cure materials that are manufactured at the Renegade facility in Miamisburg, OH.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensor impact evaluation and verification for fault detection and diagnostics in building energy systems: A review

Sensors are the key information source for fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) in buildings. However, sensors are often not properly designed, installed, calibrated, located, and maintained, which negatively impacts FDD performance. Several sensor-related FDD topics have been widely studied, covering a wide range of fault types and applications. However, it is difficult to get a clear picture of the technical development of sensor-related topics in FDD. A systematic review of sensor topics is needed to summarize the existing research in a logical way, draw conclusions on the current development, and predict the future development of sensors in building FDD. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive literature review of more than 100 FDD-sensor-related papers. In this article, we subdivide the FDD tasks into building-level, system-level, and component-level FDD, and review sensor-related topics in each category. Our major conclusions are: (a) current data-driven FDD research focuses more on FDD algorithms than sensors, (b) sensor “hardware” research topics are less studied than sensor “software” topics, (c) very few papers focus on sensor engineering as an integral aspect of FDD development, and (d) some important sensor topics, such as sensor cost-effectiveness and sensor schema/layout/location, are not well studied. Finally, we discuss the need for a systematic framework of FDD sensors and models to integrate sensor design/selection, sensor data analysis/mining, feature selection, physics-based or data-driven algorithm development, sensor fault detection, sensor calibration, and sensor maintenance. Finally, expert interviews are conducted to validate the above findings and conclusions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High-Silicon Steel Strip by Single-Step Shear Deformation Processing

It is well known that Fe-Si alloys with Si content higher than in conventional electrical sheet steels (>3.2% Si) can make a significant impact in improving the efficiency of electrical motors if they are available in sheet/foil (strip) forms at suitable cost. While the magnetic and electrical attributes (e.g., resistivity, core loss) of these high-Si Fe alloys, of relevance to electrical motor core laminations, are known to be exceptional, the alloys have limited workability, making them difficult to produce consistently in sheet/foil (strip) forms. Current processing techniques such as rolling, while adequate for producing conventional electrical steel sheet, do have important disadvantages - large energy consumption and emissions, limitations in processing of low-workability alloys (e.g., high-Si content steels), large-scale plant infrastructure, and less than adequate capability to engineer sheet metals with specific microstructures (e.g., fine-grained) and crystallographic textures (e.g., shear textures). It is therefore of interest to have an alternative commercial process that can produce sheet/foil (strip) from high-Si Fe alloys and which can also overcome some of the deficiencies of current multistage strip processes. The goal of the present project was design and demonstration of a new energy-efficient pilot process for producing high-Si electrical steel strip of commercial widths and thickness, and with superior electrical and magnetic properties than current electrical steels (Fe-3.2% Si as benchmark). The applications domain for these steels is electrical motor core laminations. We have addressed this goal by accomplishment of the following specific objectives and tasks: a) Development of an Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy with electrical resistivity >80 μΩ-cm, induction flux density >1.48 T at 5000 A/m and core loss 35% lower than the benchmark 3.2% Si alloy. The alloy which meets DOE target specifications for motor core attributes was designed with the Si content controlled for the electrical properties and the Cr content tailored to meet material/process workability requirements. b) A unique machining-based deformation processing system was designed and scaled-up to produce strip of commercial width (25 mm to 150 mm) and thickness (up to 0.5 mm) from the Fe-4Si-4Cr alloy and other alloys of varied workability including copper, Al6061-T6 and naval brass. The key attributes of the machining-based strip production are deformation processing by concentrated simple-shear; single-step production of strip from ingot using compact machine infrastructure; strip surface finish of Ra 0.35 to 1 micrometer that is comparable/superior to that of rolled strip; discrete production of strip that can potentially be done at point of use; and controllability of strip mechanical/formability properties by deformation control. c) The electrical, magnetic, surface quality, mechanical, formability, and metallurgical properties/attributes of the machining-based strip were established by direct ASTM standard or equivalent measurement techniques. d) Punching characteristics of the strip in terms of load, edge quality and macro defects were similar to those of conventional 3.2% Si electrical steels. These punching characteristics are critical from a manufacturability perspective for motor/transformer core applications. e) A modeling framework for energy analysis of multistage rolling and the machining-based deformation processing has been established. Application of this modeling to the two strip-processes showed that the machining-based process requires significantly lower specific energy for processing, ~ 25% of that for rolling. The modeling framework can be adapted for a range of sheet-metal forming, bulk metal forming, and machining processes. It can be used to identify key parameters controlling process specific energy. f) A comparative analysis of advantages and disadvantages of machining-based processing against rolling for strip production. The single stage machining-based processing, with compact infrastructure, represents a new manufacturing paradigm for sheet and foil manufacturing that can potentially also be applied to advanced titanium, aluminum, copper and magnesium alloys. The goals and objectives were accomplished by a cross-disciplinary project team comprising of personnel from Purdue University; M4 Sciences LLC, a small-business focused on advanced manufacturing technology development; the Pacific Northwest National Labs; and tool manufacturers. The team is currently in advanced discussions with multiple entities for future process development for commercialization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗

Image segmentation for analyzing galaxy-galaxy strong lensing systems

The goal of this Letter is to develop a machine learning model to analyze the main gravitational lens and detect dark substructure (subhalos) within simulated images of strongly lensed galaxies. Using the technique of image segmentation, we turn the task of identifying subhalos into a classification problem, where we label each pixel in an image as coming from the main lens, a subhalo within a binned mass range, or neither. Our network is only trained on images with a single smooth lens and either zero or one subhalo near the Einstein ring. On an independent test set with lenses with large ellipticities, quadrupole and octopole moments, and for source apparent magnitudes between 17–25, the area of the main lens is recovered accurately. On average, only 1.3% of the true area is missed and 1.2% of the true area is added to another part of the lens. In addition, subhalos as light as 10 8.5 M ⊙ can be detected if they lie in bright pixels along the Einstein ring. Furthermore, the model is able to generalize to new contexts it has not been trained on, such as locating multiple subhalos with varying masses or more than one large smooth lens.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anomaly Detection and Identification Using a Leave-One-Variable-Out Method

At nuclear power plants (NPPs), anomaly detection and identification (i.e., determining the causes of anomalies) are important tasks for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. These tasks are currently labor-intensive and costly, and are made more difficult by the size and complexity of NPP systems. An alternative approach to conducting these tasks is to automate them, such as via the reconstruction-based contribution method, which is a well-researched unsupervised machine learning method that uses a data-driven model of anomaly-free behavior to detect events and then identify each variable’s contributions to those events. The present effort developed a novel contribution approach that utilized a leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, with which each variable is predicted using all the other variables. The novelty lay in transforming this model into a reconstruction model and modifying the identification algorithm to work with the new reconstruction model. To evaluate this method in a controlled environment, a synthetic dataset based on spring-mass-damper (SMD) systems (commonly found in mechanical engineering references) was used, with known anomalies introduced into the system. The proposed method successfully detected the anomalies and afforded insights into their causes, thus enabling the appropriate identifications to be made.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

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