Reliability analysis of complex systems using subset simulations with Hamiltonian Neural Networks
Not Available
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Not Available
For nearly a century, global power systems have focused on three key functions: generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity as a real-time commodity. Physics requires that electricity generation always be in real-time balance with load-despite variability in load on time scales ranging from subsecond disturbances to multiyear trends. With the increasing role of variable generation from wind and solar, the retirement of fossil-fuel-based generation, and a changing consumer demand profile, grid operators are using new methods to maintain this balance.
This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 104 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from 1998 through 2018 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS), formerly the INPO Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the EPS results.
Next generation of fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries requires higher power, faster kinetics, and larger energy density, which necessitate the use of compositionally complex oxides to achieve multifunctionalities and activity. These compositionally complex oxides may change their phases and structures during an electrochemical process – a so-called “electrochemically driven phase transformation”. The origin for such a phase change has remained obscure. More importantly, there is a need to develop high performance solid oxide fuel cells with an enhanced stability. In this work, the La 0.6 Sr 0.4 Co 0.2 Fe 0.8 O 3 (LSCF) cathode surface is modified by infiltration of Pr 6 O 11 and the power density at 0.8V and 750 °C is improved by 21%. In addition, by replacing the traditional barrier layer Gd 0.2 Ce 0.8 O 1.9 with mixed conducting Pr 0.1 Gd 0.1 Ce 0.8 O 1.9 , the power density increases by 38%. The different mechanism of promotions was investigated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The ohmic resistance is dramatically reduced by applying the PGCO interlayer, and the distribution of relaxation time was used to analyze the mechanism for which the polarization resistance was decreased attributing to the mixed conduction nature in PrO x . An increase of power density at 0.8 V of 0.358 W/cm 2 (71%) is achieved with the implementation of both surface modification and buffer layer engineering. An experimental study and a theoretical analysis were then carried out on phase evolution in praseodymium nickelates. Nickelate-based electrodes show up to 60× greater phase transformation during operation when compared to thermally annealed ones. Theoretical analysis suggests that the presence of a reduced oxygen partial pressure at the interface between the oxygen electrode and the electrolyte is the origin for the phase change in an oxygen electrode. Guided by the theory, an addition of the electronic conduction in the interface layer leads to the significant suppression of phase change, while improving cell performance and performance stability. When an oxygen electrode is under polarization, the oxygen partial pressure at the interface between the oxygen electrode and the electrolyte is lower than that of incoming oxidant. Under a high polarization, the environment at the aforementioned interface may lead to phase transformation of the oxygen electrode. The local oxygen partial pressure is determined by the transport properties at the interfaces. An addition of the electronic conduction in the interface layer, for instance using (Pr,Gd)-doped ceria to replace Gd-doped ceria, results in improved cell performance and performance stability, while the phase transformation is significantly suppressed. This work provides a fundamental understanding of the origin for phase transformation in oxygen electrodes during operation and use this knowledge to develop a high-performance electrode that exhibits improved performance stability.
Abstract not provided.
Abstract not provided.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Mississippi’s electric grid resilience challenges are linked to an intersection of complex socioeconomic, ecological, technological, historical, and political challenges, exacerbated by increasing severe weather like flooding and tornado events. The state’s legacy of underinvestment in critical energy infrastructure, particularly in rural areas and vulnerable floodplains, have stressed an aging grid, creating long-lasting disruptions in electric service during weather-related outages. Effective emergency management and preparedness is further hampered by a lack of coordination across local, county, and regional scales. Using the TASTI-GRID platform and partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Mississippi is developing a comprehensive regional resilience strategy to overcome energy security and reliability challenges, mitigating the impacts of natural hazards, and positioning Mississippi as a resilient and premier destination for residents, businesses, and economic development.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
A method is proposed to compute the transition probability (the probability of partial or total failure) of parallel redundant system. The effect of geometry of the system, the direction of load, and the degree of redundancy on the probability of complete survival of parachute-like system are also studied. The results show that the probability of complete survival of three-member parachute-like system is very sensitive to the variation of horizontal angle of the load. However, it becomes very insignificant as the degree of redundancy increases.
Solid state power controllers (SSPC's) are to be considered for use as replacements of electromechanical relays and circuit breakers in future spacecraft and aircraft. They satisfy the combined function of both the relay and circuit breaker and can be remotely controlled by small signals, typically 10 mA, 5 to 28 v(dc). They have the advantage over conventional relay/circuit breaker systems in that they can be located near the utilization equipment and the primary ac or dc bus. The low level control, trip indication and status signals can be circuited by small gauge wire for control, computer interface, logic, electrical multiplexing, onboard testing, power management, and distribution purposes. This results in increased system versatility at appreciable weight saving and increased reliability. Conventional systems require the heavy gage load wiring and the control wiring to be routed from the bus to the load to other remote relay contacts, switches, sensors, etc. and to the circuit breaker located in the flight engineer's compartment for purposes of manual reset.
Mirror, with area of low reflectivity, replaces neutral-density transmission filter in star-tracking system, increasing reliability. It may have applications in other optical systems.
Final report on solar-heating demonstration project in Huntsville, Alabama, is rich in technical data, planning considerations, test and maintenance data, and other information. It can be useful reference for those planning similar systems.
A system which can generate multiple signals such that each signal can have different quality states is modeled. A measure of the effectiveness of the system as a function of the status of its components is developed. Assuming only that the probability distribution of the status of each component is known, bounds on the probability distribution of the system's measure of effectiveness are developed.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
A method for estimating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of material failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the qualitative effect of disk speed on the probability of survival.
Through the use of equivalent variable analogies, the authors demonstrate how an electrical subsystem can be modeled by an equivalent structural subsystem. This allows the electrical subsystem to be probabilistically analyzed by using available structural reliability computer codes such as NESSUS. With the ability to analyze the electrical subsystem probabilistically, we can evaluate the reliability of systems that include both structural and electrical subsystems. Common examples of such systems are a structural subsystem integrated with a health-monitoring subsystem, and smart structures. Since these systems have electrical subsystems that directly affect the operation of the overall system, probabilistically analyzing them could lead to improved reliability and reduced costs. The direct effect of the electrical subsystem on the structural subsystem is of secondary order and is not considered in the scope of this work.