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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Aerosol Midlatitude Cyclone Indirect Effects in Observations and High-Resolution Simulations

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Mccoy, Daniel T.↗

Simulating the Phonon Collection Efficiency in KIPMDs

Kinetic inductance phonon-mediated (KIPM) detectors use microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs) to read out phonon signals in the substrate. They are a promising class of detectors to be used in light dark matter (DM) searches due to their potential eV-scale sensitivity and native frequency-domain multiplexability. In order to improve upon the design of these detectors, simulations are needed to understand the effects of detector design on measurable physical parameters including the phonon collection efficiency, $\eta_{ph}$, which is defined as the ratio of phonon energy detected by the sensitive target element to the incident energy deposited in the substrate. This work simulates the phonon collection efficiency for a KIPMD currently operated at the Northwestern EXperimental Underground Site (NEXUS).

Dang, Stella Q.↗

Neutron-antineutron oscillation search with MicroBooNE and DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international project aiming at neutrino physics and astrophysics and a search for phenomena predicted by theories beyond the standard model (BSM). The excellent imaging capability of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology, particle tracking and identification utilized in the Far Detector, as well as the Far Detector size and underground placement, allow the experiment to achieve high sensitivity to various rare processes. BSM theories predict the existence of baryon number non-conservation effects, in particular when the baryon number changes by 2. Here we discuss the sensitivity of DUNE to neutron-antineutron oscillation. With full event simulation and reconstruction using the LArSoft package, we have investigated the background to potential signal events from atmospheric neutrino interactions and particle misidentification, and utilized machine learning techniques to enhance the discrimination between signal and background. The methodologies being developed for a high-sensitivity search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE can also be demonstrated with the currently running MicroBooNE LArTPC. We discuss progress on demonstrating the developed techniques with the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC using MicroBooNE data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Simulation of Hydrogen Flow in a Nuclear-Thermal Propulsion Reactor Subsystem: Conjugate Heat Transfer in Surrogate Fuel Elements and Flow Through the Dome Inlet to the Fuel Elements

NASA is performing research related to a Nuclear-Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine as a step toward future manned missions to Mars. BWX Technologies (BWXT), in conjunction with NASA, is developing the reactor subsystem for that NTP engine design. As a subset of the reactor subsystem, the fuel elements have continued to evolve in design, as well. A set of experiments within the Nuclear Thermal Reactor Element Environmental Simulator at NASA Marshall has been developed to compliment that design process, including a series of surrogate fuel elements. Before the experiments of each surrogate can be completed, they must be deemed safe using structural analysis, which itself requires thermal and conjugate heat transfer analyses of the articles. Therefore, conjugate heat transfer simulations of the hydrogen flow through the test article fuel element surrogates were developed to provide estimates of heating, as well as to provide assessments of the fluid flow through the elements. The set of simulations involved not only the separate test conditions, but also a sensitivity study to estimate the effect of physical parameter uncertainty on the selected quantities of interest. Additionally, the fluid flow through the fore section inner plenum dome to the entrances of the fuel elements, another section of the reactor subsystem still under active development, was simulated and analyzed. The simulations show the extent of non-uniformity in the mass flow distribution across the dome outlets. Furthermore, additional analyses estimate the effects of required flow blockages on the potential development of flow dynamics. These analyses were used in the design cycle to make improvements to the reactor subsystem design.

Kalen E. Braman↗

Effectiveness evaluation of STOL transport operations (phase 2)

A computer simulation program which models a commercial short-haul aircraft operating in the civil air system was developed. The purpose of the program is to evaluate the effect of a given aircraft avionics capability on the ability of the aircraft to perform on-time carrier operations. The program outputs consist primarily of those quantities which can be used to determine direct operating costs. These include: (1) schedule reliability or delays, (2) repairs/replacements, (3) fuel consumption, and (4) cancellations. More comprehensive models of the terminal area environment were added and a simulation of an existing airline operation was conducted to obtain a form of model verification. The capability of the program to provide comparative results (sensitivity analysis) was then demonstrated by modifying the aircraft avionics capability for additional computer simulations.

Welp, D. W.↗

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion Guidance Navigation and Control

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch. We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool ("Critical Factors Tool" or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Pressburger, Tom↗

Design of Premoderated Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiments for Validating Beryllium Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Accurate thermal scattering laws (TSLs) are essential for reliable neutron transport simulations, particularly for systems with low-energy neutrons. Pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments provide a highly sensitive platform for TSL validation but face challenges from fast neutron leakage and material constraints in nonhydrogenous targets such as beryllium. This work investigates the use of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a premoderator to reduce leakage, improve thermalization, and shorten experimental run times while preserving sensitivity to the Be TSL. Here, three premoderated configurations, encapsulation, slab, and interstitial, were evaluated using MCNP6.3® simulations with ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data. The effects of the Be TSL was quantified by comparing decay constants from simulations with and without 𝑆⁡(𝛼,𝛽) treatments for both beryllium and HDPE. The results show that premoderation enables the use of as little as 5.20% of the beryllium volume required for an unreflected geometry, achieving uncertainties below 0.5% and reducing run time by up to 72.2% in the studied configurations. The interstitial configuration achieved the best balance between low statistical uncertainty and high TSL sensitivity, outperforming the slab and encapsulation designs. These findings demonstrate that carefully optimized premoderation can significantly enhance the efficiency, feasibility, and precision of PNDA experiments for Be TSL validation.

Integral Experiments↗

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Discrete shape sensitivity equations for aerodynamic problems

Intensive research and development in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has recently produced many powerful CFD codes to simulate complex aerodynamic phenomena. However, in order to enhance the usefulness of these CFD codes for design practice, development of design sensitivity equations compatible to these codes becomes very important. This paper represents a part of such an effort to develop a sensitivity analysis methodology that enables the sensitivity equations to be implemented into existing CFD codes with minimal code modification. The methodology is based upon a preelimination procedure which accounts for consistently linearized boundary conditions. Formulations of both the direct differentiation and the adjoint variable methods will be presented in the paper.

Hou, Gene J.-W.↗

MRT 7365: Power flow physics and key physics phenomena

The Z accelerator at Sandia National Laboratories conducts z-pinch experiments at 26 MA in support of DOE missions in stockpile stewardship, dynamic materials, fusion, and other basic sciences. Increasing the current delivered to the z-pinch would extend our reach in each of these disciplines. To achieve increases in current and accelerator efficiency, a fraction of Z’s shots are set aside for research into transmission-line power flow. These shots, with supporting simulations and theory, are incorporated into this Advanced Diagnostics milestone report. The efficiency of Z is reduced as some portion of the total current is shunted across the transmission-line gaps prior to the load. This is referred to as “current loss”. Electrode plasmas have long been implicated in this process, so the bulk of dedicated power-flow experiments are designed to measure the plasma environment. The experimental analyses are enhanced by simulations conducted using realistic hardware and Z voltage pulses. In the same way that diagnostics are continually being improved for sensitivity and resolution, the modeling capability is continually being improved to provide faster and more realistic simulations. The specifics of the experimental hardware, diagnostics, simulations, and algorithm developments are provided in this report. The combined analysis of simulation and data confirms that electrode plasmas have the most detrimental impact on current delivery. Experiments over the last three years have tested the theoretical current-loss mechanisms of enhanced ion current, plasma gap closure, and Hall-related current. These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive and may be coincident in the final feed as well as in upstream transmission lines. The final-feed geometries tested here, however, observe lower-density plasmas without dominant ion currents which is consistent with a Hall-related current. The picture of plasma formation and transport formed from experiment and simulation is informing hardware designs being fielded on Z now and being proposed for the Next-Generation Pulsed Power (NGPP) facility. In this picture, the strong magnetic fields that heat the electrodes above particle emission thresholds also confine the charged particles near the surface. Some portion of the plasmas thus formed is transported into the transmission-line gap under the force of the electric field, with aid from plasma instabilities. The gap plasmas are then transported towards the load by a cross-field drift, where they accumulate and contribute to a likely Hall-related cross-gap current. The achievements in experimental execution, model validation, and physical analysis presented in this report set the stage for continued progress in power flow and load diagnostics on Z. The planned shot schedule for Z and Mykonos will provide data for extrapolation to higher current to ensure the predicted performance and efficiency of a NGPP facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Design of a celestial Thomson-scattering X-ray polarimeter.

A general discussion of the scientific importance and status of stellar X-ray polarimetry is presented. A stellar X-ray polarimeter designed to fit into the bottom half of the NASA OSO-1 wheel compartment or other similar spacecraft is described. In this design, the linear polarization is obtained as a function of energy. The sensitivity of the polarimeter in the 4-24 keV energy range was optimized with the aid of a Monte Carlo simulation computer program and is given for several important celestial X-ray sources. Estimates of sensitivity thresholds for a much larger polarimeter, suitable for flight in the NASA High-Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAO), are also given. The minimum detectable polarization for several X-ray sources is given.

Landecker, P. B.↗

Elastic-Plastic Nonlinear Response of a Space Shuttle External Tank Stringer: Stringer-Feet Imperfections and Assembly - Part 1

Elastic-plastic, large-deflection nonlinear stress analyses are performed for the external hat-shaped stringers (or stiffeners) on the intertank portion of the Space Shuttle s external tank. These stringers are subjected to assembly strains when the stringers are initially installed on an intertank panel. Four different stringer-feet configurations including the baseline flat-feet, the heels-up, the diving-board, and the toes-up configurations are considered. The assembly procedure is analytically simulated for each of these stringer configurations. The location, size, and amplitude of the strain field associated with the stringer assembly are sensitive to the assumed geometry and assembly procedure. The von Mises stress distributions from these simulations indicate that localized plasticity will develop around the first eight fasteners for each stringer-feet configuration examined. However, only the toes-up configuration resulted in high assembly hoop strains.

Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NED_Asteroid_Energy_Deposition

In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's x-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. These simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed x-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull which can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission hydrocode. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials (Silicon Dioxide, Forsterite, Iron, and Ice), two different source spectra (1 and 2 keV blackbodies), and then a broad range of radiation fluences (0.0001 to 1 kt per square meter), source durations (10 to 100 ns), and asteroid porosities (0 to 80 percent). Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the modelinitiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10 percent. Please reference the journal article: Burkey et al., X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission, Planetary Science Journal, (2023) for more information.

Managan, RobertA↗

X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission

Abstract In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor or other means of deflection proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's X-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. The relevant physics in these simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed X-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull that can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission calculation. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials at a range of porosities, two different source spectra, and a broad range of radiation fluences, source durations, and angles of incidence. Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the model-initiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing the Structure and Dynamics of Fluid Mixtures in Porous Materials Through Ultrafast Vibrational Spectro-Microscopy and Many-Body Molecular Dynamics

This research program focused on the characterization of both molecular structure and dynamics of aqueous solutions in various metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) and organic polymers that have recently been proposed for applications in water treatment technologies. This was accomplished by integrating ultrafast vibrational spectroscopy and microscopy, which are sensitive to local environments, molecular orientation, and dynamical couplings, with many-body molecular dynamics (MB-MD) simulations, which enable realistic modeling of aqueous systems and porous materials under different thermodynamic conditions. Our studies allowed for identifying the physical mechanisms and characterizing the underlying molecular interactions between water and host materials that determine the adsorption and transport processes of water in various MOFs and β-cyclodextrin polymers – prototypical examples of porous materials and polymers, that have recently been proposed for technological applications in water purification. By combining bulk- and surface-sensitive, spatially resolved ultrafast vibrational spectroscopy with MB-MD simulations, it was possible to gain broad insight into the structure and mobility of water under heterogeneous confinement at various length scales. In particular, measurements of surface- and bulk-sensitive vibrational spectra at single crystal level, integrated with MB-MD simulations were used to characterize domain-specific, structure–binding affinity relationships. Besides providing specific information about the behavior of aqueous solutions in prototypical MOFs and organic polymers for potential applications in water treatment technologies, our studies also provided fundamental insights into the properties of aqueous solutions in confined heterogeneous environments, which have broad implications in many areas, ranging from heterogeneous catalysis to oil recovery, ion transport processes, and reaction-diffusion processes in crowded systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Verification and Validation of Simulation Models for High-Speed Flow Fields

This paper is largely based on the paper titled "Guide to Credible Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations (Invited)" (AIAA Paper 95-2225). The significance of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations depends solely on their credibility. A customer of CFD products -- simulations and software -- expects that these products are credible for the intended use. Simulation model verification and validation are critical in establishing the credibility of simulations and in certifying simulation software. The only thing that matters in establishing the credibility is uncertainty, not veracity or validity. The sensitivity-uncertainty analysis is the key to the establishment of this credibility. Assessing the credibility of complex simulation results poses a significant challenge. Terminology, concepts, framework, and guidelines are presented for addressing this challenge. Verification assesses whether the problem is solved correctly and estimates the level of computational accuracy of simulations; validation determines whether the right problem is solved and assesses the level of validity of the simulation model by estimating the degree to which simulations accurately represent reality. These concepts and the related guidelines are discussed with examples from high-speed flow fields.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗