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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A quantile-based scenario analysis approach to biomass supply chain optimization under uncertainty

Supply chain optimization for biomass-based power plants is an important research area due to greater emphasis on renewable power energy sources. Biomass supply chain design and operational planning models are often formulated and studied using deterministic mathematical models. While these models are beneficial for making decisions, their applicability to real world problems may be limited because they do not capture all the complexities in the supply chain, including uncertainties in the parameters. This study develops a statistically robust quantile-based approach for stochastic optimization under uncertainty, which builds upon scenario analysis. We apply and evaluate the performance of our approach to address the problem of analyzing competing biomass supply chains subject to stochastic demand and supply. Finally, the proposed approach was found to outperform alternative methods in terms of computational efficiency and ability to meet the stochastic problem requirements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application Deconfliction Characterization and Alternatives Analysis

This report provides an overview of the domain space and solution techniques that could be used to create a robust, flexible app deconfliction service. Three approaches are reviewed with summaries of the characteristics, elements, and results from preliminary demonstrations of solution techniques based on each approach: 1) rules and heuristics, 2) cooperation, and 3) optimization. The strengths and weaknesses of each solution technique were explored through a set of numerical demonstrations on modified IEEE 123 node and 9500 node test feeders. An alternatives analysis of individual deconfliction elements was performed with each solution technique element evaluated against criteria reflecting the dynamic app environment, need to balance app objectives, and scalability issues versus the number of applications, setpoints, and distributed control areas. It is anticipated that a combined solution for a GridAPPS-D Deconfliction Service can be formulated using a combination of elements from each solution technique. The combined solution would combine 1) device control budgets to reduce the size of the solution space by constraining system setpoints to those will not result in accelerated degradation of physical assets, 2) system operations rules to constrain the solution space by eliminating setpoints that result in violations of system limits or operational best practices, 3) contextual status signals shared with or among apps such that they could update their desired setpoints based on the evolving context, 4) a mediator that incentivizes apps to come to a cooperative solution, and 5) Setpoint-informed optimization as a fallback mechanism if a cooperative solution cannot be agreed upon by applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Robust and Accurate Shock Capturing Method for High-Order Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

A simple yet robust and accurate approach for capturing shock waves using a high-order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is presented. The method uses the physical viscous terms of the Navier-Stokes equations as suggested by others; however, the proposed formulation of the numerical viscosity is continuous and compact by construction, and does not require the solution of an auxiliary diffusion equation. This work also presents two analyses that guided the formulation of the numerical viscosity and certain aspects of the DG implementation. A local eigenvalue analysis of the DG discretization applied to a shock containing element is used to evaluate the robustness of several Riemann flux functions, and to evaluate algorithm choices that exist within the underlying DG discretization. A second analysis examines exact solutions to the DG discretization in a shock containing element, and identifies a "model" instability that will inevitably arise when solving the Euler equations using the DG method. This analysis identifies the minimum viscosity required for stability. The shock capturing method is demonstrated for high-speed flow over an inviscid cylinder and for an unsteady disturbance in a hypersonic boundary layer. Numerical tests are presented that evaluate several aspects of the shock detection terms. The sensitivity of the results to model parameters is examined with grid and order refinement studies.

Atkins, Harold L.↗
DOE OSTI2015

PMU-Aided Voltage Security Assessment for a Wind Power Plant

Because wind power penetration levels in electric power systems are continuously increasing, voltage stability is a critical issue for maintaining power system security and operation. The traditional methods to analyze voltage stability can be classified into two categories: dynamic and steady-state. Dynamic analysis relies on time-domain simulations of faults at different locations; however, this method needs to exhaust faults at all locations to find the security region for voltage at a single bus. With the widely located phasor measurement units (PMUs), the Thevenin equivalent matrix can be calculated by the voltage and current information collected by the PMUs. This paper proposes a method based on a Thevenin equivalent matrix to identify system locations that will have the greatest impact on the voltage at the wind power plant's point of interconnection. The number of dynamic voltage stability analysis runs is greatly reduced by using the proposed method. The numerical results demonstrate the feasibility, effectiveness, and robustness of the proposed approach for voltage security assessment for a wind power plant.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Multivariable control of the Space Shuttle remote manipulator system using H2 and H(infinity) optimization

Three linear controllers are desiged to regulate the end effector of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) operating in Position Hold Mode. In this mode of operation, jet firings of the Orbiter can be treated as disturbances while the controller tries to keep the end effector stationary in an orbiter-fixed reference frame. The three design techniques used include: the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), H2 optimization, and H-infinity optimization. The nonlinear SRMS is linearized by modelling the effects of the significant nonlinearities as uncertain parameters. Each regulator design is evaluated for robust stability in light of the parametric uncertanties using both the small gain theorem with an H-infinity norm and the less conservative micro-analysis test. All three regulator designs offer significant improvement over the current system on the nominal plant. Unfortunately, even after dropping performance requirements and designing exclusively for robust stability, robust stability cannot be achieved. The SRMS suffers from lightly damped poles with real parametric uncertainties. Such a system renders the micro-analysis test, which allows for complex peturbations, too conservative.

Prakash, OM, II↗
NASA NTRS2012

Subscale and Full-Scale Testing of Buckling-Critical Launch Vehicle Shell Structures

New analysis-based shell buckling design factors (aka knockdown factors), along with associated design and analysis technologies, are being developed by NASA for the design of launch vehicle structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles and can help mitigate some of NASA s launch vehicle development and performance risks by reducing the reliance on testing, providing high-fidelity estimates of structural performance, reliability, robustness, and enable increased payload capability. However, in order to validate any new analysis-based design data or methods, a series of carefully designed and executed structural tests are required at both the subscale and full-scale level. This paper describes recent buckling test efforts at NASA on two different orthogrid-stiffened metallic cylindrical shell test articles. One of the test articles was an 8-ft-diameter orthogrid-stiffened cylinder and was subjected to an axial compression load. The second test article was a 27.5-ft-diameter Space Shuttle External Tank-derived cylinder and was subjected to combined internal pressure and axial compression.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multicriteria Gain Tuning for Rotorcraft Flight Controls (also entitled The Development of the Conduit Advanced Control System Design and Evaluation Interface with a Case Study Application Fly by Wire Helicopter Design)

Handling qualities analysis and control law design would seem to be naturally complimenting components of aircraft flight control system design, however these two closely coupled disciplines are often not well integrated in practice. Handling qualities engineers and control system engineers may work in separate groups within an aircraft company. Flight control system engineers and handling quality specialists may come from different backgrounds and schooling and are often not aware of the other group's research. Thus while the handling qualities specifications represent desired aircraft response characteristics, these are rarely incorporated directly in the control system design process. Instead modem control system design techniques are based on servo-loop robustness specifications, and simple representations of the desired control response. Comprehensive handling qualities analysis is often left until the end of the design cycle and performed as a check of the completed design for satisfactory performance. This can lead to costly redesign or less than satisfactory aircraft handling qualities when the flight testing phase is reached. The desire to integrate the fields of handling qualities and flight,control systems led to the development of the CONDUIT system. This tool facilitates control system designs that achieve desired handling quality requirements and servo-loop specifications in a single design process. With CONDUIT, the control system engineer is now able to directly design and control systems to meet the complete handling specifications. CONDUIT allows the designer to retain a preferred control law structure, but then tunes the system parameters to meet the handling quality requirements.

Biezad, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2016

An energy-stable time-integrator for phase-field models

Here, we introduce a provably energy-stable time-integration method for general classes of phase-field models with polynomial potentials. We demonstrate how Taylor series expansions of the nonlinear terms present in the partial differential equations of these models can lead to expressions that guarantee energy-stability implicitly, which are second-order accurate in time. The spatial discretization relies on a mixed finite element formulation and isogeometric analysis. We also propose an adaptive time-stepping discretization that relies on a first-order backward approximation to give an error-estimator. This error estimator is accurate, robust, and does not require the computation of extra solutions to estimate the error. This methodology can be applied to any second-order accurate time-integration scheme. We present numerical examples in two and three spatial dimensions, which confirm the stability and robustness of the method. The implementation of the numerical schemes is done in PetIGA, a high-performance isogeometric analysis framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of Logistics in Support of a Human Lunar Outpost

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation system and lunar surface system architecture options is performed to inform NASA Constellation Program senior management on the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This paper presents an overview of the approach used to perform the campaign (strategic) analysis, with an emphasis on the logistics modeling and the impacts of logistics resupply on campaign behavior. An overview of deterministic and probabilistic analysis approaches is provided, with a discussion of the importance of each approach to understanding the integrated system behavior. The logistics required to support lunar surface habitation are analyzed from both 'macro-logistics' and 'micro-logistics' perspectives, where macro-logistics focuses on the delivery of goods to a destination and micro-logistics focuses on local handling of re-supply goods at a destination. An example campaign is provided to tie the theories of campaign analysis to results generation capabilities.

Cirillo, William↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sensor fusion IV: Control paradigms and data structures; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 12-15, 1991

Various papers on control paradigms and data structures in sensor fusion are presented. The general topics addressed include: decision models and computational methods, sensor modeling and data representation, active sensing strategies, geometric planning and visualization, task-driven sensing, motion analysis, models motivated biology and psychology, decentralized detection and distributed decision, data fusion architectures, robust estimation of shapes and features, application and implementation. Some of the individual subjects considered are: the Firefly experiment on neural networks for distributed sensor data fusion, manifold traversing as a model for learning control of autonomous robots, choice of coordinate systems for multiple sensor fusion, continuous motion using task-directed stereo vision, interactive and cooperative sensing and control for advanced teleoperation, knowledge-based imaging for terrain analysis, physical and digital simulations for IVA robotics.

Schenker, Paul S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Growing neoclassical tearing modes seeded via transient-induced-multimode interactions

Nonlinear extended magnetohydrodynamics simulations demonstrating seeding of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) via magnetohydrodynamics-transient-induced multimode interactions are presented. Simulations of NTMs are enabled by two recent NIMROD code developments: the implementation of heuristic neoclassical stresses and the application of transient magnetic perturbations (MPs) at the boundary. NTMs are driven unstable by the inherently pressure driven kinetic bootstrap current, which arises due to collisional viscosity between passing and trapped electrons. These simulations use heuristic closures that model the neoclassical electron and ion stresses. NTM growth requires a seed island, which is generated by a transiently applied MP in simulations. The capability is demonstrated using kinetic-based reconstructions with flow of a DIII-D ITER Baseline Scenario discharge (La Haye et al., in Proceedings IAEA FEC, 2020). The applied MP seeds a 2/1 NTM that grows in two phases: a slow growth phase followed by a faster robust growth phase. Additionally, an evolving sequence of higher order core modes are excited at first. Power transfer analysis shows that nonlinear interactions between the core modes and the 2/1 helps drive the initial slow growth. Once the induced 2/1 magnetic island reaches a critical width, the NTM transitions to faster robust growth, which is well described by the nonlinear modified Rutherford equation. Furthermore, this work highlights the role of nonlinear mode coupling in seeding NTMs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Keys to the House: Unlocking Residential Savings With Program Models for Home Energy Upgrades

After more than 40 years of effort, energy efficiency program administrators and associated contractors still find it challenging to penetrate the home retrofit market, especially at levels commensurate with state and federal goals for energy savings and emissions reductions. Residential retrofit programs further have not coalesced around a reliably successful model. They still vary in design, implementation and performance, and they remain among the more difficult and costly options for acquiring savings in the residential sector. If programs are to contribute fully to meeting resource and policy objectives, administrators need to understand what program elements are key to acquiring residential savings as cost effectively as possible. To that end, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive review and analysis of home energy upgrade programs with proven track records, focusing on those with robustly verified savings and constituting good examples for replication. The study team reviewed evaluations for the period 2010 to 2014 for 134 programs that are funded by customers of investor-owned utilities. All are programs that promote multi-measure retrofits or major system upgrades. We paid particular attention to useful design and implementation features, costs, and savings for nearly 30 programs with rigorous evaluations of performance. This meta-analysis describes program models and implementation strategies for (1) direct install retrofits; (2) heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) replacement and early retirement; and (3) comprehensive, whole-home retrofits. We analyze costs and impacts of these program models, in terms of both energy savings and emissions avoided. These program models can be useful guides as states consider expanding their strategies for acquiring energy savings as a resource and for emissions reductions. We also discuss the challenges of using evaluations to create program models that can be confidently applied in multiple jurisdictions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗
DOE OSTI2014

On signals faint and sparse: The ACICA algorithm for blind de-trending of exoplanetary transits with low signal-to-noise

Independent component analysis (ICA) has recently been shown to be a promising new path in data analysis and de-trending of exoplanetary time series signals. Such approaches do not require or assume any prior or auxiliary knowledge about the data or instrument in order to de-convolve the astrophysical light curve signal from instrument or stellar systematic noise. These methods are often known as 'blind-source separation' (BSS) algorithms. Unfortunately, all BSS methods suffer from an amplitude and sign ambiguity of their de-convolved components, which severely limits these methods in low signal-to-noise (S/N) observations where their scalings cannot be determined otherwise. Here we present a novel approach to calibrate ICA using sparse wavelet calibrators. The Amplitude Calibrated Independent Component Analysis (ACICA) allows for the direct retrieval of the independent components' scalings and the robust de-trending of low S/N data. Such an approach gives us an unique and unprecedented insight in the underlying morphology of a data set, which makes this method a powerful tool for exoplanetary data de-trending and signal diagnostics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Geometric Analysis Based Double Closed-loop Iterative Learning Control of Output PDF Shaping of Fiber Length Distribution in Refining Process

In order to improve the pulp quality and to reduce the energy consumption, the fiber length distribution (FLD) is generally employed as one of the important technological indexes in the refining process. Considering that the traditional mean and variance of fiber length are unable to adequately characterize the non-Gaussian distribution properties, this paper proposes a novel geometric analysis based double closed-loop iterative learning control (ILC) method for probability density function (PDF) shaping of output FLD in the refining process. Primarily, a RBF neural network (NN) with Gaussian-type is utilized to approximate the square root PDF in the inner loop, where the RBF basis function parameters (center and width) are tuned between any two adjacent batches by using an ILC law, and the subspace identification method can be applied to establish the state-space model of weight vector. Then, for the sake of accelerating the convergence rate of the closed-loop sysyem, a geometric analysis based ILC method is adopted in the outer loop. Lastly, both simulation and experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2002

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Hammond, Walter E.↗