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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Deep neural network uncertainty quantification for LArTPC reconstruction

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural networks with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainty and robust performance against overconfidence and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are critical for their full deployment in analyzing experimental data. While numerous UQ methods have been tested on simple datasets, performance evaluations for more complex tasks and datasets are scarce. Here we assess the application of selected deep learning UQ methods on the task of particle classification using the PiLArNet monte carlo 3D LArTPC point cloud dataset. We observe that UQ methods not only allow for better rejection of prediction mistakes and OOD detection, but also generally achieve higher overall accuracy across different task settings. We assess the precision of uncertainty quantification using different evaluation metrics, such as distributional separation of prediction entropy across correctly and incorrectly identified samples, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and expected calibration error from observed empirical accuracy. We conclude that ensembling methods can obtain well calibrated classification probabilities and generally perform better than other existing methods in deep learning UQ literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Experimental study of the isomeric state in 16 N using the 16 N$^{g,m}$($\textit{d}$, 3 He) reaction

Here, the isomeric state of 16 N was studied using the 16 N$^{g,m}$($\textit{d}$, 3 He) proton-removal reactions at 11.8 MeV/u in inverse kinematics. The 16 N beam, of which 24% was in the isomeric state, was produced using the Argonne Tandem-Linac Accelerator System (ATLAS) in-flight system and delivered to the Helical Orbit Spectrometer (HELIOS), which was used to analyze the 3 He ions from the ($\textit{d}$, 3 He) reactions. The simultaneous measurement of reactions on both the ground state and the isomeric states, reduced the systematic uncertainties from the experiment and in the analysis. A direct and reliable extraction of the relative spectroscopic factors was made based on a distorted-wave Born approximation approach. The experimental results suggest that the isomeric state of 16N is an excited neutron-halo state. The results can be understood through calculations using a Woods-Saxon potential model, which captures the effects of weak binding.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High stereographic resolution texture and residual stress evaluation using time-of-flight neutron diffraction

Neutron diffraction texture measurements provide bulk averaged textures with excellent grain orientation statistics, even for large-grained materials, owing to the probed volume being of the order of 1 cm 3 . Furthermore, crystallographic parameters and other valuable microstructure information such as phase fraction, coherent crystallite size, root-mean-square microstrain, macroscopic or intergranular strain and stress, etc. can be derived from neutron diffractograms. A procedure for combined high stereographic resolution texture and residual stress evaluation was established on the pulsed-neutron-source-based engineering materials diffractometer TAKUMI at the Materials and Life Science Experimental Facility of the Japan Proton Accelerator Research Center, through division of the neutron detector panel regions. Pole figure evaluation of a limestone standard sample with a well known texture suggested that the precision obtained for texture measurement is comparable to that of the established neutron beamlines utilized for texture measurement, such as the HIPPO diffractometer at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (New Mexico, USA) and the D20 angle-dispersive neutron diffractometer at the Institut Laue–Langevin (Grenoble, France). A high-strength martensite–austenite multilayered steel was employed for further verification of the reliability of simultaneous Rietveld analysis of multiphase textures and macro stress tensors. By using a texture-weighted geometric mean micromechanical (BulkPathGEO) model, a macro stress tensor analysis with a plane stress assumption showed a rolling direction–transverse direction (RD–TD) in-plane compressive stress (about –330 MPa) in the martensite layers and an RD–TD in-plane tensile stress (about 320 MPa) in the austenite layers. The phase stress partitioning was ascribed mainly to the additive effect of the volume expansion during martensite transformation and the linear contraction misfit between austenite layers and newly transformed martensite layers during the water quenching process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Turn Your Half-Cut Cells for a Stronger Module

Here, we employ an existing model of crystalline silicon photovoltaic module cell fracture to explore the effect of cell size and orientation on their probability of fracture under module uniform loading. In addition, we also apply continuum damage mechanics to modify this model to consider the effect of cell fracture on the probability of subsequent cell fracture. We elucidate that cell fracture increases the probability of subsequent cell fracture and that rectangular modules containing half-cells aligned with the module's long orientation are much more robust against cell fracture than full-cell and half-cell short orientation modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Representation and Impact of Water Head on Power System Planning and Operation

Representing water head information in power system model files, can provide a more realistic model of the system and thereby inform operation and planning personnel in the decision-making process. This article describes a procedure for modifying the power system model files (steady-state and dynamic) to represent water head information. Additionally, the impact of representing the water head on power system reliability studies including contingency analysis, cascading failure analysis and dynamic frequency response analysis has been investigated, using the modified power system models. This paper considers the detailed Western Electricity Coordination Council model during summer and winter conditions as the test system for the impact analysis. Results show that under reduced water head: 1) the number of critical voltage and branch flow violations increases; 2) chances of cascading failure and island formation increases; and 3) frequency nadir decreases as compared to those of the base cases where the water head information is not represented.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Photoluminescence-Imaging-Based Evaluation of Non-Uniform CdTe Degradation

A control algorithm is designed to smooth the variability of PV power output using distributed batteries. The tradeoff between smoothing and battery size is shown. It is also demonstrated that large numbers of highly distributed current, voltage, and irradiance sensors can be utilized to control the distributed storage in a more optimal manner. It is also demonstrated that centralized energy storage control for PV ramp rate smoothing requires very fast communication, typically less than a 15-second update rate. Finally, advanced inverter dynamic reactive current is shown to provide voltage variability smoothing, hence reducing the number of voltage regulator tap changes without energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Identifying Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites in CuInxGa(1-x)Se2

CIGS mini-modules are stressed under reverse bias, resembling partial shading conditions, to predict and characterize where failure occurs. Partial shading can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects on thin-film modules due to thermal runaway. We use electroluminescence (EL) imaging and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) to supplement current-voltage curves when reverse-bias breakdown occurs on various CIGS minimodules. For better understanding of how these defects originate and propagate, we have implemented a current-limited, reverse-bias stressing technique. This allowed for DLIT-based detection and detailed study of the region where breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. A correlation between suspected defect sites and actual breakdown has been determined using this method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Thin-Film Module Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites Identified by Thermal Imaging

Thin-film module sections are stressed under reverse bias to simulate partial shading conditions. Such stresses can cause permanent damage in the form of "wormlike" defects due to thermal runaway. When large reverse biases with limited current are applied to the cells, dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) can detect where spatially-localized breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. Predicted breakdown defect sites have been identified in both CIGS and CdTe modules using DLIT. These defects include small pinholes, craters, or voids in the absorber layer of the film that lead to builtin areas of weakness where high current densities may cause thermal damage in a partial-shading event.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DC-Saturated Continuously Variable Series Reactors (CVSRs) for Power Flow Control in Power Transmission Systems

This paper proposes a novel continuously variable series reactor (CVSR) based on a dc current controller (DCC) to manage power flow in transmission systems. There are three major contributions. First, the three-dimensional electromagnetic interaction has been comprehensively analyzed to extend the understanding beyond the conventional 2D relationship. Second, a high-fidelity reluctance model of the CVSR with an improved DCC model is proposed and implemented. To overcome the fundamental concern for the system modeling, the DCC has been modeled as an ideal current source in parallel with an output impedance. Additionally, the induced back-EMF can be precisely projected which provides critical design guidelines for the DCC. Third, inspired by the theoretical analysis and modeling, a reliable high power DCC converter is designed accordingly to interface with kV-level back-EMF and supply kA-level dc current for a 115 kV/1500 A CVSR. Experiments are conducted in a practical transmission demonstration system. When the ac current in the transmission system varies from zero to 1500 A, experimental results show that the proposed CVSR can continuously regulate the reactance from 1.6 Ω to 5 Ω, validating the effectiveness of the proposed system design and modeling methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Extracting Resilience Metrics From Distribution Utility Data Using Outage and Restore Process Statistics

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

TU-FG-BRB-06: A Prompt Gamma-Ray Spectroscopy System for Clinical Studies of in Vivo Proton Range Verification

Purpose: We present a new system to perform prompt gamma-ray spectroscopy during proton pencil-beam scanning treatments, which enables in vivo verification of the proton range. This system will be used for the first clinical studies of this technology. Methods: After successful pre-clinical testing of prompt gamma-ray spectroscopy, a full scale system for clinical studies is now being assembled. Prompt gamma-rays will be detected during patient treatment using an array of 8 detector modules arranged behind a tungsten collimator. Each detector module consists of a lanthanum(III) bromide scintillator, a photomultiplier tube, and custom electronics for stable high voltage supply and signal amplification. A new real-time data acquisition and control system samples the signals from the detectors with analog-to-digital converters, analyses events of interest, and communicates with the beam delivery systems. The timing of the detected events was synchronized to the cyclotron radiofrequency and the pencil-beam delivery. Range verification is performed by matching measured energy- and timeresolved gamma-ray spectra to nuclear reaction models based on the clinical treatment plan. Experiments in phantoms were performed using clinical beams in order to assess the performance of the systems. Results: The experiments showed reliable real-time analysis of more than 10 million detector events per second. The individual detector modules acquired accurate energy- and time-resolved gamma-ray measurements at a rate of 1 million events per second, which is typical for beams delivered with a clinical dose rate. The data acquisition system successfully tracked the delivery of the scanned pencil-beams to determine the location of range deviations within the treatment field. Conclusion: A clinical system for proton range verification using prompt gamma-ray spectroscopy has been designed and is being prepared for use during patient treatments. We anticipate to start a first clinical study in the near future. This work was supported by the Federal Share of program income earned by Massachusetts; General Hospital on C06-CA059267, Proton Therapy Research and Treatment Center.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

X-ray diffraction study of fluorene, 9-fluorenone, and 9-dicyanomethylenefluorene derivatives

The results of a single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis of fluorene, 9-fluorenone, and 9-dicyanomethylenefluorene derivatives as individual compounds, as well as their crystal solvates, molecular complexes, and charge-transfer complexes, are generalized. The most interesting features of the molecular geometry and conformation and the molecular packing in the crystals are discussed. The structural formula of 95 compounds and the R factors for X-ray diffraction analysis, which characterize the reliability of determining the structure, are summarized in three tables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Downscaled Daily 1 km Climate Data (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) for Southeast Texas. Full ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 climate projections at 1 km daily resolution.

For the SETx-UIFL, the daily NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset climate projections were downscaled from approximately 27 km to 1 km. The SETx dataset provides very high-resolution climate data for the historical period (1950–2014) and future scenarios derived from CMIP6 global models under the four Tier 1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1.26, 2.45, 3.70, and 5.85), developed for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. A subset of ten NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was selected to represent a balance of model families, climate sensitivities, and availability across scenarios, ensuring a diverse and reliable ensemble for regional analysis. Selected models: BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-MM. Daily variables downscaled include tasmax, tasmin, tas, pr, hurs, huss, rsds, rlds, and sfcWind.

Persad, Geeta↗

Strategy and gaps for modeling, simulation, and control of hybrid systems

The purpose of this report is to establish a strategy for modeling and simulation of candidate hybrid energy systems. Modeling and simulation is necessary to design, evaluate, and optimize the system technical and economic performance. Accordingly, this report first establishes the simulation requirements to analysis candidate hybrid systems. Simulation fidelity levels are established based on the temporal scale, real and synthetic data availability or needs, solution accuracy, and output parameters needed to evaluate case-specific figures of merit. Accordingly, the associated computational and co-simulation resources needed are established; including physical models when needed, code assembly and integrated solutions platforms, mathematical solvers, and data processing. This report first attempts to describe the figures of merit, systems requirements, and constraints that are necessary and sufficient to characterize the grid and hybrid systems behavior and market interactions. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and effective cost of Effective Cost of Energy (ECE), as opposed to the standard Levelized Cost of Electricty (LCOE), are introduced as technical and economical indices for integrated energy system evaluations. Financial assessment methods are subsequently introduced for evaluation of non-traditional, hybrid energy systems. Algorithms for coupled and iterative evaluation of the technical and economic performance are subsequently discussed. This report further defines modeling objectives, computational tools, solution approaches, and real-time data collection and processing (in some cases using real test units) that will be required to model, co-simulate, and optimize; (a) an energy system components (e.g., power generation unit, chemical process, electricity management unit), (b) system domains (e.g., thermal, electrical or chemical energy generation, conversion, and transport), and (c) systems control modules. Co-simulation of complex, tightly coupled, dynamic energy systems requires multiple simulation tools, potentially developed in several programming languages and resolved on separate time scales. Whereas further investigation and development of hybrid concepts will provide a more complete understanding of the joint computational and physical modeling needs, this report highlights areas in which co-simulation capabilities are warranted. The current development status, quality assurance, availability and maintainability of simulation tools that are currently available for hybrid systems modeling is presented. Existing gaps in the modeling and simulation toolsets and development needs are subsequently discussed. This effort will feed into a broader Roadmap activity for designing, developing, and demonstrating hybrid energy systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quantifying Uncertainty to Improve Decision Making in Machine Learning

Data-driven modeling, including machine learning methods, continue to play an increasing role in society. Data-driven methods impact decision making for applications ranging from everyday determinations about which news people see and control of self-driving cars to high-consequence national security situations related to cyber security and analysis of nuclear weapons reliability. Although modern machine learning methods have made great strides in model induction and show excellent performance in a broad variety of complex domains, uncertainty remains an inherent aspect of any data-driven model. In this report, we provide an update to the preliminary results on uncertainty quantification for machine learning presented in SAND2017-6776. Specifically, we improve upon the general problem definition and expand upon the experiments conducted for the earlier re- port. Most importantly, we summarize key lessons learned about how and when uncertainty quantification can inform decision making and provide valuable insights into the quality of learned models and potential improvements to them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy Intensity Baselining and Tracking Guidance

Each company joining the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) commits to establishing an energy consumption and energy intensity (EI) baseline and to tracking its energy performance over a 10-year period against that baseline. The baseline must reflect a company’s energy consumption over a 12-month period, covering all its U.S.-based operations. Energy consumption is calculated by fuel type in terms of primary energy (also known as source energy). EI is broadly defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of output produced. For this guidance document and for the program, the term energy performance represents an evaluation of a facility’s capacity to use energy efficiently. Metrics used to assess a facility’s energy performance can include EI, energy consumption, improvements in EI, etc. Establishing an energy baseline and tracking system is a critical first step in effectively managing energy use. Developing a baseline can help a company understand energy use within the corporation and give it a point of comparison to evaluate future efforts to improve energy performance. It can also support efforts to validate a company’s energy management activities, improve comparative analyses when using benchmarks, and help in predicting future energy needs. In addition, a company that normalizes its performance data can determine highly defensible measures of energy savings generated through implemented energy efficiency projects. Establishing a baseline and tracking energy performance is also a requirement for ISO 50001 certification. Although basic energy data can be collected through utility bills, most manufacturers will have to perform additional analyses to develop accurate and robust energy baselines and tracking systems. Energy is consumed in many ways within the manufacturing sector and can come from multiple sources. Energy is sometimes generated and sold to other parties or captured and reused on-site. External events can exert a significant impact on a facility or company’s energy use independent of any purposeful efforts to improve energy efficiency. Operational changes, such as production shifts—which may be inevitable for some companies over the 10-year period covered by the program—can also make a big difference in energy use. Since Better Plants asks companies to account for all their U.S.-based operations, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures can also have significant implications for a company’s energy metrics. This document aims to demystify the sometimes complex baselining process. It devotes special attention to the task of normalizing and adjusting energy consumption to account for external factors, such as weather and production changes. A key recommendation is that companies use regression analysis to normalize their energy consumption data whenever possible. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that estimates the dependence of a variable (i.e., energy use in the context of Better Plants) on one or more independent variables such as ambient temperature, while controlling for the influence of other variables at the same time. A properly developed regression analysis can provide a reliable estimate of energy savings resulting from energy improvement strategies and projects by accounting for the effects of variables such as annual production levels and weather. DOE has developed a companion Energy Performance Indicator software tool (EnPI) to simplify the baselining process. This tool can run regression models, calculate changes in EI at the facility level, and automatically compile facility-level data into a corporate-wide metric. Note that although the relevant equations used to calculate EI are provided in this document, the EnPI tool will automatically perform most calculations for the user. Additionally, Better Plants Partners (Partners) can call on their Technical Account Manager (TAM) to help them establish a baseline and assist with the necessary calculations to track progress.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

In-House Alternative for Chemical Analyses of Rhenium and Sulfur in Glass

Accurate measurements of rhenium (Re) and sulfur (S) concentrations in solid samples are of critical importance for the key research activities at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Waste Form Development Laboratory (WFDL) related to Re behavior during waste glass melting process and solubility of S in glass. Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) has provided reliable services for chemical analysis needs at WFDL; however, its long turnaround time, occasionally up to 5 months, has caused some difficulties. An in-house method was developed for dissolving and fusing glass and feed samples in preparation for analyses by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry and -mass spectrometry at a PNNL facility. Using a previously developed sodium hydroxide fusion method as a basis, four groups of samples from Hanford waste glass research were digested and fused at WFDL. The samples included 1) Enhanced low-activity waste glass correlation phase 2/3 melter glasses from the Vitreous State Laboratory at the Catholic University of America, 2) AN-102 dried feeds and glasses, 3) SS-AN-102 dried feeds and glasses, and 4) Integrated Research Project S solubility study glasses. We evaluated three different sets of solution preparation and analysis combinations, which included 1) a WFDL-prepared solution analyzed at SwRI, 2) a PNNLprepared solution analyzed at a laboratory in the Building-331at PNNL, and 3) an SwRIprepared solution analyzed at SwRI. We concluded that the PNNL in-house Re results can be used in parallel with the SwRI data based on the relative standard deviation values less than 6% from three different sets of solution preparation and analysis for all three groups of rhenium-containing samples tested. However, it was proposed that the in-house S data be used for the barium oxide-free glasses only because of the issue of barium sulfate precipitation in digestion/fusion solutions prepared from glasses containing barium oxide. In addition, higher analytical biases between the PNNL and SwRI S results are expected compared to the Re results, based on the relative standard deviation values of less than 10% from three different sets of solution preparation and analysis for two groups of S-containing samples.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗