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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Efficient Approximation for Structural Optimization Under Multiple Constraints

The cooperative agreement covered work between August 1995 and August 1997. The focus of the work was efficient approximations of structural response and sensitivity. The effort proceeded in three directions as follows: (1) Development of an approximation extended to efficient sensitivity approximations and demonstrated for structural models for the High Speed Civil Transport; (2) Preliminary development of the adjoint method for calculating sensitivity derivatives; and (3) A review of method for fast exact reanalysis. Attachments of papers which were submitted during this period are included.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

Abundant Cool Magnesium-Rich Pyroxene Crystals in Comet Hale-Bopp

Modeling of the observed dust emission from Comet Hale-Bopp over a large range of heliocentric distances (2.8 AU - 0.93 AU -1.7 AU) led to the discovery of Mg-rich pyroxene crystals in the coma These pyroxene crystals are apparent in the 10 micron spectrum only when the comet is close to perihelion (r(sub h) = 1.2 AU) because they are cooler than the other silicate minerals. The pyroxene crystals are cooler than the other species because of their high Mg-content. They do not absorb as efficiently as the other silicate minerals. Given the same high Mg content of Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.9, radiative equilibrium computations show that pyroxene crystals are expected to be 150 K cooler than olivine crystals. The pyroxene crystals are also about 10x more abundant than the other silicate mineral species. Their high Mg content and relatively large abundance are in agreement with the preponderance of pyroxene interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) and the recent reanalysis of the PUMA-I flyby of Comet Halley. Before Hale-Bopp, only olivine crystals were detected spectroscopically in comets, probably because the pyroxene crystals are less optically active, hence significantly cooler and harder to detect in contrast to the warmer silicate species. Determining the relative abundances of silicate minerals depends on their Mg contents. If the pyroxene crystals in Comet Hale-Bopp are solar nebula condensates, then they probably had to form during the early FU Orionis epoch when the inner disk was hot enough and be transported out to the region of formation of icy planetesimals without being reheated. Reheating events appear to reincorporate Fe back into the crystals or form Fe-rich rims, which are not consistent with the high-Mg-content crystals. The condensation of Mg-rich pyroxene crystals is expected from solar nebula thermal equilibrium computations. However, their subsequent transport to the outer solar nebula unaltered has yet to be theoretically demonstrated. The discovery of Mg-rich crystals in Comet Hale-Bopp and in AGB stars opens the possibility that these crystals are relic interstellar grains. One-third of IDPs have been shown to have significant deuterium enrichments, thus indicating that they contain presolar material. By spectroscopic analogy to IDPs the Mg-rich pyroxene crystals in Comet Hale-Bopp may be presolar grains. If so, then the comet contains largely ISM silicates. ISM grains may have been the dominant source of dust in the outer early solar nebula.

Wooden, D. H.↗

Wind Forcing of the North Sea Pole Tide

The Chandler wobble of the earth's rotation has a period near 14 months and sets up the 0.5 cm amplitude pole tide in the deep oceans, However, the pole tide is anomalously large in the North Sea, where the amplitude increases sharply up to 3 cm along the continental coast. It is shown here that the sea levels are well correlated with winds at the pole tide frequency. The Princeton Ocean Model is used to investigate the response of the North Sea to wind forcing. The barotropic numerical ocean model depicts realistic coastlines and bathymetry at 5 ft x 5 ft resolution, with 97 x 73 grid points. The monthly mean wind fields for the 40-year period (1958-1997) from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis were used to force the model. The winds were converted to stress with a neutral drag coefficient that varied linearly with windspeed (instead of using the NCEP windstress). A 5-day simulation was made for each month until the resulting flow regime came into equilibrium, and model water levels at various station locations were saved for comparison with tidal-gauge observed sea levels from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). The comparison is made for 10 North Sea stations with high quality tide gauge data. We find: (1) good agreement in annual and semi-annual phases and in the trend of amplitude w.r.t. latitude; (2) more importantly for this study, the model-predicted and observed non-seasonal sea level variations show a very significant temporal correlation as well as spectral coherence. However, a large amplitude difference exists between the two sets -- the overall amplitude variability of the observed is generally a factor of 2-3 larger than the model prediction (this same phenomenon has been reported in ocean circulation studies, although the cause is not yet clear.) Our results indicate that the wind forcing is the main cause of the observed large pole tide in the North Sea.

OConnor, W.↗

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗

The East Asian Jet Stream and its Climate Impact

In this talk, I will present results from an analysis of the winter westerly jet stream over East Asia. The variability of the jet and its teleconnection to other climate subsystems such as the Asian winter monsoon, ENSO, and tropical convection will be focused. The role of external forcing and the predictability of the jet will be assessed using models. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NASA GPCP data, and results from experiments with the NASA GOES-2 general circulation model will be studied.

Yang, Song↗

The Role of Data Assimilation in the Study of Regional and Global Variability of the Hydrological Cycle

In the coming years, researchers will have at their disposal a host of new observations from advanced space-based sensors (e.g. the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, EOS Terra and PM missions) providing, among other things, a more complete and accurate description of various components of the Earth's hydrological cycle. Also, increasingly more sophisticated and comprehensive geophysical models will provide researchers better tools for simulating the hydrological cycle, and for carrying out mechanistic studies of the role of moist processes in the climate system. In addition, new data sets generated with global four-dimensional data assimilation (4DDA) systems will provide comprehensive and complete information on both the state and forcing of the climate system. Ideally, the 4DDA systems optimally incorporate all relevant information from the observations together with a first guess from a state-of-the-art geophysical model to produce a "best" estimate of the climate state. Furthermore, to the extent that the assimilating models are realistic and are constrained by the observations, they should provide reliable estimates of the associated physical processes or climate forcing fields. While operational weather centers now have a considerable history of providing reliable estimates of the basic atmospheric state variables, the associated processes or diagnostic fields (which are less well constrained by the observations and sensitive to errors in the model's physical parameterizations) are still considered experimental and of uncertain quality. In this study we will examine the current generation of reanalysis products to assess the capabilities of 4DDA systems to represent components of the hydrological cycle. The focus is on the role of the model in providing consistent estimates of moist processes. We will also assess whether current observations provide sufficient constraints on these model- generated fields.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Prediction of Particle Number Density and Particle Properties in the Flow Field Observed by the Nephelometer Experiment on the Galileo Probe

This report summarizes the work performed to assist in the analysis of data returned from the Galileo Probe's Nephelometer instrument. A computation of the flow field around the Galileo Probe during its descent through the Jovian atmosphere was simulated. The behavior of cloud particles that passed around the Galileo probe was then computed and the number density in the vicinity of the Nephelometer instrument was predicted. The results of our analysis support the finding that the number density of cloud particles was not the same in each of the four sampling volumes of the Nephelometer instrument. The number densities calculated in this study are currently being used to assist in the reanalysis of the data returned from the Galileo Probe.

Naughton, Jonathan W.↗

A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside from the East coast, PW has a stronger north-south gradient than that of rainfall. As for the temporal variation of PW, June (1988 and 1995) experiences a peak about 1400 local time, corresponding to a maximum in air temperature. In contrast, October (1988 and 1995) experiences a maximum early in the day, 1100 local time, with a gradual decrease toward nighttime.

DeLiberty, Tracy↗

The nu(sub 2) and 2nu(sub 2) - nu(sub 2) bands of N-14 (16)O2: Electron Spin-Rotation and Hyperfine Contact Resonances in the (010) Vibrational State

High-resolution Fourier transform spectra covering the 720-9-10/ cm spectral region have been used to perform a reanalysis of the 2nu(sub 2) band ((010) - (000) vibrational transition) together with the first analysis of the nu(sub 2) - nu(sub 2) hot band of nitrogen dioxide ((020)-(010) vibrational transition). The high-quality spectra show that, for numerous nu(sub 2) lines, the hyperfine structure is easily observable in the case of resonances due to the hyperfine Fermi-type operator. By performing a full treatment of the spin-rotation and of the hyperfine operators, a near line list of the nu(sub 2) band (positions and intensities) has been generated, and it is in excellent agreement with the experimental spectrum. Also, a thorough analysis of the -2nu(sub 2) nu(sub 2) hot band has been performed leading to an extended set of new (020) spin-rotation levels, These levels, together with the (100), (020), (001) spin-rotation levels deduced previously from the analysis of thenu(sub 1), 2nu(sub 2), and nu(sub 3) cold bands performed in the 6.3 - to 7.5 microns spectral range were least-squares fitted, allowing one to derive a new set of vibrational band centers and rotational. spin-rotation, and interaction constants for the {(100)(020)(001)} interacting states of N-14(16)O2.

Perrin, A.↗

Approximate Co-Location of Precipitation and Low-Level Westerlies in Tropical Monthly Means

In summer monsoon regions the monthly mean precipitation regions coincide approximately well with regions of westerlies at low-levels. An included chart shows a 15-year (1979-1993) mean August 850 hPa zonal wind from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and Xie-Arkin precipitation. It shows a region of westerlies covering most of Northern Indian Ocean and extending to northwestern Pacific. This region coincides well with the region with precipitation greater than 6 mm/day. Obviously the coincidence is not exact; the region of larges; zonal wind in the Arabian Sea is in a region of relatively low precipitation and is far from the region of maximum precipitation in Bay of Bengal. Also, in a zonally averaged sense between 40E and 140E, the latitude of maximum precipitation is slightly higher than that of the maximum zonal wind. Low-level westerlies are also found in regions west of Central America and in western Africa north of the equator. These regions are also closely associated with precipitation centers. Across equator from these westerlies regions there are regions of strong easterlies. Also, on their poleward side the westerly regions are flanked by weaker easterly regions. In February, similar observation can be found in the Australian monsoon area and in South America monsoon region; again the regions of westerlies coincide well with regions of maximum precipitation. As in the northern hemisphere, the maximum precipitation is found to the cast of the maximum zonal wind. The two maxima lie almost at the same latitude with that of the westerlies slightly closer to the equator. In the non-monsoon seasons the low- level westerlies can also be found in the tropical precipitation regions, the longitudinal range of the westerlies is undiminished and the speed of the westerlies is not much weaker than that found in February. The interpretation of these observational facts is the goal of this investigation. The approach taken is numerical simulation with the Goddard Earth Observation Systems atmospheric general circulation model, and its aqua-planet version, combined with theoretical arguments.

Choa, Winston C.↗

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗

Remote Sensing of Dipole Rings

Historical satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data are reanalyzed with a zebra color palette and a thermal separatrix method. The new results from this reanalysis are as follows: (a) Thirteen observational sequences of six rings from the Gulf Stream and the Brazil Current, which have historically been interpreted as solitary vortices or monopoles are shown to have a dipolar character; (b) some of these dipole rings have been observed in the open ocean, thereby eliminating the possibility that they are sustained by topographic interactions with the continental slope; (c) whether interacting with other features or evolving as isolated circulations, dipoles are seen to rotate within a relatively narrow range of approximately 4-8 deg/day (interacting) and 10-11 deg/day (isolated); and (d) feature tracking delineates energetic fluid in both vortices and eliminates the possibility of interpreting dipole rings as transient features produced by active monopoles and patches of entrained fluid.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Towards a Comprehensive Dynamic-chemistry Assimilation for Eos-Chem: Plans and Status in NASA's Data Assimilation Office

In order to support the EOS-Chem project, a comprehensive assimilation package for the coupled chemical-dynamical system is being developed by the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. This involves development of a coupled chemistry/meteorology model and of data assimilation techniques for trace species and meteorology. The model is being developed using the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core of Lin and Rood, the physical parameterizations from the NCAR Community Climate Model, and atmospheric chemistry modules from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics branch at NASA GSFC. To date the following results have been obtained: (i) multi-annual simulations with the dynamics-radiation model show the credibility of the package for atmospheric simulations; (ii) initial simulations including a limited number of middle atmospheric trace gases reveal the realistic nature of transport mechanisms, although there is still a need for some improvements. Samples of these results will be shown. A meteorological assimilation system is currently being constructed using the model; this will form the basis for the proposed meteorological/chemical assimilation package. The latter part of the presentation will focus on areas targeted for development in the near and far terms, with the objective of Providing a comprehensive assimilation package for the EOS-Chem science experiment. The first stage will target ozone assimilation. The plans also encompass a reanalysis (ReSTS) for the 1991-1995 period, which includes the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the time when a large number of UARS observations were available. One of the most challenging aspects of future developments will be to couple theoretical advances in tracer assimilation with the practical considerations of a real environment and eventually a near-real-time assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗

Observations of Land Surface Variability Using Passive Microwave Sensing

Understanding the global variability of land surface wetness (soil moisture), skin temperature, and related surface fluxes of heat and moisture is key to assessing the importance of the land surface in influencing climate. The feasibility of producing model estimates of these quantities is being studied as part of the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP). In the GSWP approach, meteorological observations and analyses are used to drive global circulation models. Satellite measurements can provide independent estimates of key land surface parameters that are needed for initializing and validating the climate models and for monitoring long-term change. Satellite observations of the land surface can also be assimilated into soil models to estimate moisture in the root zone. In our research, passive microwave satellite data recorded during 1978-1987 from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are being used to examine spatial and temporal trends in surface soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature. These data include observations at C and X bands (6.6 and 10.7 GHz), which are not available on the current Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and are precursors to data that will become available from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS-II) and Earth Observing System (EOS) PM1 in the year 2000. A chart shows a time-series of SMMR-derived surface temperature, T-e and surface soil moisture M, retrieved on a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg grid and further averaged over a 4 deg x 10 deg study region in the African Sahel. Also shown are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model outputs of surface temperature, T-sfc, and soil wetness, Soil-w. The variables have been scaled to have similar dynamic ranges on the plots. The NCEP data from the NCEP Reanalysis Project are monthly averages on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid averaged over the 4 deg x 10 deg study area. Comparisons of SMMR retrievals with forecast model output show the potential of the satellite data for validating model output and monitoring long-term trends. Continuing work will extend these results to other regions to validate the retrievals more quantitatively. In preparation for the launch of AMSR, field experiments are planned in collaboration with the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) experiments to evaluate the satellite-derived soil moisture measurements and to demonstrate their usefulness for land surface hydrology and climate. Additional information is contained in the original.

Njoku, Eni G.↗

Interannual Atmospheric Oscillations and Their Gravitational Effects

Past studies have examined the effects of the interannual atmospheric oscillations (IAO), or often called teleconnection patterns, on the Earth's rotation, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the quasi-biennial oscillation, and to a lesser extent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The present study focuses on IAO's effects on the gravitational field and geocenter; the purpose is to be able to identify and isolate the contributions of each prominent IAO in relation to the total contribution of the atmosphere, in terms of their magnitudes, their geographical patterns, and their interannual time history. We use the 40-year NCEP reanalysis of the monthly, global atmospheric surface pressure field as our basic data set. The method we apply to isolate the IAOs is the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition which is widely used in meteorological investigations. We do the EOF analysis first on IAOs' seasonal signals (by "collapsing" the 40-year series into 12 mean-months for each grid point) and obtain estimates for their respective contributions. Then we remove these seasonal signals from the data to focus on the (broad-band) interannual EOFs. We examine ENSO, NAO, North Pacific Oscillation, and other less prominent IAOs that can be identified from our data set, and compute their respective contributions to the variation of global gravitational field and geocenter motion. Finally, we compare the results with the available observational data, and discuss the implications w.r.t. the upcoming space missions such as GRACE.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Sensitivity of Spacebased Microwave Radiometer Observations to Ocean Surface Evaporation

Ocean surface evaporation and the latent heat it carries are the major components of the hydrologic and thermal forcing on the global oceans. However, there is practically no direct in situ measurements. Evaporation estimated from bulk parameterization methods depends on the quality and distribution of volunteer-ship reports which are far less than satisfactory. The only way to monitor evaporation with sufficient temporal and spatial resolutions to study global environment changes is by spaceborne sensors. The estimation of seasonal-to-interannual variation of ocean evaporation, using spacebased measurements of wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and integrated water vapor, through bulk parameterization method,s was achieved with reasonable success over most of the global ocean, in the past decade. Because all the three geophysical parameters can be retrieved from the radiance at the frequencies measured by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on Nimbus-7, the feasibility of retrieving evaporation directly from the measured radiance was suggested and demonstrated using coincident brightness temperatures observed by SMMR and latent heat flux computed from ship data, in the monthly time scale. However, the operational microwave radiometers that followed SMMR, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), lack the low frequency channels which are sensitive to SST. This low frequency channels are again included in the microwave imager (TMI) of the recently launched Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The radiance at the frequencies observed by both TMI and SSM/I were simulated through an atmospheric radiative transfer model using ocean surface parameters and atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles produced by the reanalysis of the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). From the same ECMWF data set, coincident evaporation is computed using a surface layer turbulent transfer model. The sensitivity of the radiance to evaporation over various seasons and geographic locations are examined. The microwave frequencies with radiance that are significant correlated with evaporation are identify and capability of estimating evaporation directly from TMI will be discussed.

Liu, Timothy W.↗