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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prioritized LT Codes

The original Luby Transform (LT) coding scheme is extended to account for data transmissions where some information symbols in a message block are more important than others. Prioritized LT codes provide unequal error protection (UEP) of data on an erasure channel by modifying the original LT encoder. The prioritized algorithm improves high-priority data protection without penalizing low-priority data recovery. Moreover, low-latency decoding is also obtained for high-priority data due to fast encoding. Prioritized LT codes only require a slight change in the original encoding algorithm, and no changes at all at the decoder. Hence, with a small complexity increase in the LT encoder, an improved UEP and low-decoding latency performance for high-priority data can be achieved. LT encoding partitions a data stream into fixed-sized message blocks each with a constant number of information symbols. To generate a code symbol from the information symbols in a message, the Robust-Soliton probability distribution is first applied in order to determine the number of information symbols to be used to compute the code symbol. Then, the specific information symbols are chosen uniform randomly from the message block. Finally, the selected information symbols are XORed to form the code symbol. The Prioritized LT code construction includes an additional restriction that code symbols formed by a relatively small number of XORed information symbols select some of these information symbols from the pool of high-priority data. Once high-priority data are fully covered, encoding continues with the conventional LT approach where code symbols are generated by selecting information symbols from the entire message block including all different priorities. Therefore, if code symbols derived from high-priority data experience an unusual high number of erasures, Prioritized LT codes can still reliably recover both high- and low-priority data. This hybrid approach decides not only "how to encode" but also "what to encode" to achieve UEP. Another advantage of the priority encoding process is that the majority of high-priority data can be decoded sooner since only a small number of code symbols are required to reconstruct high-priority data. This approach increases the likelihood that high-priority data is decoded first over low-priority data. The Prioritized LT code scheme achieves an improvement in high-priority data decoding performance as well as overall information recovery without penalizing the decoding of low-priority data, assuming high-priority data is no more than half of a message block. The cost is in the additional complexity required in the encoder. If extra computation resource is available at the transmitter, image, voice, and video transmission quality in terrestrial and space communications can benefit from accurate use of redundancy in protecting data with varying priorities.

Woo, Simon S.↗

A Parameterized Inversion Model for Soil Moisture and Biomass from Polarimetric Backscattering Coefficients

A semi-empirical algorithm for the retrieval of soil moisture, root mean square (RMS) height and biomass from polarimetric SAR data is explained and analyzed in this paper. The algorithm is a simplification of the distorted Born model. It takes into account the physical scattering phenomenon and has three major components: volume, double-bounce and surface. This simplified model uses the three backscattering coefficients ( sigma HH, sigma HV and sigma vv) at low-frequency (P-band). The inversion process uses the Levenberg-Marquardt non-linear least-squares method to estimate the structural parameters. The estimation process is entirely explained in this paper, from initialization of the unknowns to retrievals. A sensitivity analysis is also done where the initial values in the inversion process are varying randomly. The results show that the inversion process is not really sensitive to initial values and a major part of the retrievals has a root-mean-square error lower than 5% for soil moisture, 24 Mg/ha for biomass and 0.49 cm for roughness, considering a soil moisture of 40%, roughness equal to 3cm and biomass varying from 0 to 500 Mg/ha with a mean of 161 Mg/ha

soil moisture↗

Using Deep Learning to Automate Inference of Meteoroid Pre-Entry Properties

Properly assessing the asteroid threat depends on the knowledge of asteroid pre-entry parameters, such as size, velocity, mass, density, and strength. Although a vast number of possible bodies to study exist, such characterization of asteroid populations is currently limited by substantial costs associated with space rendezvous missions and rare meteorite findings. As asteroids fragment, ablate, and decelerate in the atmosphere, they emit light detectable by ground-based and space-borne instruments. Earth’s atmosphere, thus, becomes an accessible laboratory that enables impactor risk assessments by facilitating inference of the pre-entry parameters. These asteroid pre-entry conditions are typically deduced by modeling the entry and breakup physics that best reproduce the observed light or energy deposition curve. However, this process requires extensive manual trial-and-error of uncertain modeling parameters. Automating meteor modeling and inference would improve property distributions used in risk assessments and enable population characterization as more light curves become more readily available through the presence of space assets and ground-based camera networks. We previously developed a genetic algorithm to automate meteor modeling by using the fragment-cloud model (FCM) to search for the values of the FCM input parameters (e.g., diameter) that generate energy deposition profiles that match the observed one. Now, we apply deep learning to infer asteroid diameter, velocity, and density from observed energy deposition curves. We trained and tested our neural network models with synthetic energy deposition curves modeled using the FCM rubble pile implementation. We present an application of a 1D convolutional neural network and compare its performance to other attempted regressors and machine learning techniques, such as a fully connected neural network and Random Forest regression, to demonstrate its capabilities. We validate our model weights and approach using the Chelyabinsk, Tagish Lake, Benešov, Košice, and Lost City meteors.

Tarano, Ana Maria↗

Ptychographic wavefront characterization for single-particle imaging at x-ray lasers

A well-characterized wavefront is important for many x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) experiments, especially for single-particle imaging (SPI), where individual biomolecules randomly sample a nanometer region of highly focused femtosecond pulses. We demonstrate high-resolution multiple-plane wavefront imaging of an ensemble of XFEL pulses, focused by Kirkpatrick–Baez mirrors, based on mixed-state ptychography, an approach letting us infer and reduce experimental sources of instability. From the recovered wavefront profiles, we show that while local photon fluence correction is crucial and possible for SPI, a small diversity of phase tilts likely has no impact. Our detailed characterization will aid interpretation of data from past and future SPI experiments and provides a basis for further improvements to experimental design and reconstruction algorithms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Statistics of the NiCoCr medium-entropy alloy: Novel aspects of an old puzzle

Abstract We study the K -state phenomenon in the NiCoCr medium-entropy alloy using first-principles techniques jointly with the efficient Wang–Landau Monte Carlo and simulated annealing algorithms. Our theoretical results successfully explain the existence of the peak around 940 K in the experimental specific heat curve that characterizes the K -state phenomenon and give a fine picture of its atomic origin. The peak is caused by the maximum change of the local configurations characterized by the short-range-order (SRO) parameters at that temperature. The maximum change in SRO parameters is dominated by the nearest-neighbor interactions of atoms but substantially tuned by the many-body interactions. One surprising aspect revealed by the reciprocal-space SRO parameters is that the Ni–Co pair distribution is not random even above the ordering transition temperature, dramatically different from Ni–Cr and Co–Cr, indicating the system cannot be treated as a pseudo binary alloy. This prototypical example shows the complicated nature of multicomponent alloys, different from binary alloys. Our methods can be directly used to study the important K -state phenomenon observed in a number of other composition-concentrated alloys regardless of their number of components.

Pei, Zongrui (ORCID:0000000307484629)↗

On the utilization of engineering knowledge in design optimization

Some current research work conducted at the University of Michigan is described to illustrate efforts for incorporating knowledge in optimization in a nontraditional way. The incorporation of available knowledge in a logic structure is examined in two circumstances. The first examines the possibility of introducing global design information in a local active set strategy implemented during the iterations of projection-type algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used algorithms for nonlinearly constrained problems. The technique used combines global and local monotinicity analysis of the objective and constraint functions. The second examines a knowledge-based program which aids the user to create condigurations that are most desirable from the manufacturing assembly viewpoint. The data bank used is the classification scheme suggested by Boothroyd. The important aspect of this program is that it is an aid for synthesis intended for use in the design concept phase in a way similar to the so-called idea-triggers in creativity-enhancement techniques like brain-storming. The idea generation, however, is not random but it is driven by the goal of achieving the best acceptable configuration.

Papalambros, P.↗

Fiber optic computing using distributed feedback

Abstract The widespread adoption of machine learning and other matrix intensive computing algorithms has renewed interest in analog optical computing, which has the potential to perform large-scale matrix multiplications with superior energy scaling and lower latency than digital electronics. However, most optical techniques rely on spatial multiplexing, requiring a large number of modulators and detectors, and are typically restricted to performing a single kernel convolution operation per layer. Here, we introduce a fiber-optic computing architecture based on temporal multiplexing and distributed feedback that performs multiple convolutions on the input data in a single layer. Using Rayleigh backscattering in standard single mode fiber, we show that this technique can efficiently apply a series of random nonlinear projections to the input data, facilitating a variety of computing tasks. The approach enables efficient energy scaling with orders of magnitude lower power consumption than GPUs, while maintaining low latency and high data-throughput.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Open-Access Repository of Synchrophasor Data Quality Examples: Curation and Example Applications

Synchrophasor measurements are critical in providing wide-area situational awareness to power system operators. However, data artifacts may be introduced due to various issues such as loss of communication, loss of GPS signal, internal clock error, and vendor-specific implementation of phasor estimation algorithms. Tools designed to provide actionable insights from synchrophasor data, hence, must be designed to be robust to these data quality issues. In this work, two years of synchrophasor data sourced from multiple electric utilities in the United States were analyzed to identify examples of data quality problems. These examples were then labeled and published in the Grid Event Signature Library, a publicly available repository of power system measurements hosted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This paper describes the data curation process, and illustrates two application use cases where the dataset can be valuable to the research community. In the first use case, a random forest classifier is trained to distinguish power system disturbance signatures from data anomalies introduced in synchrophasor measurements due to clock errors. The second use case studies the impact of data quality issues on an example synchrophasor application (specifically, event start time determination). The choice of data quality problems investigated is informed by the examples in the repository curated in this work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using a Quadtree Algorithm To Assess Line of Sight

A matched pair of computer algorithms determines whether line of sight (LOS) is obstructed by terrain. These algorithms were originally designed for use in conjunction with combat-simulation software in military training exercises, but could also be used for such commercial purposes as evaluating lines of sight for antennas or determining what can be seen from a "room with a view." The quadtree preparation algorithm operates on an array of digital elevation data and only needs to be run once for a terrain region, which can be quite large. Relatively little computation time is needed, as each elevation value is considered only one and one-third times. The LOS assessment algorithm uses that quadtree to answer LOS queries. To determine whether LOS is obstructed, a piecewise-planar (or higher-order) terrain skin is computationally draped over the digital elevation data. Adjustments are made to compensate for curvature of the Earth and for refraction of the LOS by the atmosphere. Average computing time appears to be proportional to the number of queries times the logarithm of the number of elevation data points. Accuracy is as high as is possible for the available elevation data, and symmetric results are assured. In the simulation, the LOS query program runs as a separate process, thereby making more random-access memory available for other computations.

Gonzalez, Joseph↗

Noise-induced barren plateaus in variational quantum algorithms

Abstract Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs) may be a path to quantum advantage on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) computers. A natural question is whether noise on NISQ devices places fundamental limitations on VQA performance. We rigorously prove a serious limitation for noisy VQAs, in that the noise causes the training landscape to have a barren plateau (i.e., vanishing gradient). Specifically, for the local Pauli noise considered, we prove that the gradient vanishes exponentially in the number of qubits n if the depth of the ansatz grows linearly with n . These noise-induced barren plateaus (NIBPs) are conceptually different from noise-free barren plateaus, which are linked to random parameter initialization. Our result is formulated for a generic ansatz that includes as special cases the Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz and the Unitary Coupled Cluster Ansatz, among others. For the former, our numerical heuristics demonstrate the NIBP phenomenon for a realistic hardware noise model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Refactoring the elastic–viscous–plastic solver from the sea ice model CICE v6.5.1 for improved performance

This study focuses on the performance of the elastic–viscous–plastic (EVP) dynamical solver within the sea ice model, CICE v6.5.1. The study has been conducted in two steps. First, the standard EVP solver was extracted from CICE for experiments with refactored versions, which are used for performance testing. Second, one refactored version was integrated and tested in the full CICE model to demonstrate that the new algorithms do not significantly impact the physical results. The study reveals two dominant bottlenecks, namely (1) the number of Message Parsing Interface (MPI) and Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) synchronization points required for halo exchanges during each time step combined with the irregular domain of active sea ice points and (2) the lack of single-instruction, multiple-data (SIMD) code generation. The standard EVP solver has been refactored based on two generic patterns. The first pattern exposes how general finite differences on masked multi-dimensional arrays can be expressed in order to produce significantly better code generation by changing the memory access pattern from random access to direct access. The second pattern takes an alternative approach to handle static grid properties. The measured single-core performance improvement is more than a factor of 5 compared to the standard implementation. The refactored implementation of strong scales on the Intel® Xeon® Scalable Processors series node until the available bandwidth of the node is used. For the Intel® Xeon® CPU Max series, there is sufficient bandwidth to allow the strong scaling to continue for all the cores on the node, resulting in a single-node improvement factor of 35 over the standard implementation. This study also demonstrates improved performance on GPU processors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constrained Deep Reinforcement Learning for Energy Sustainable Multi-UAV Based Random Access IoT Networks With NOMA

In this paper, we apply the Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access (NOMA) technique to improve the massive channel access of a wireless IoT network where solar-powered Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) relay data from IoT devices to remote servers. Specifically, IoT devices contend for accessing the shared wireless channel using an adaptive p-persistent slotted Aloha protocol; and the solar-powered UAVs adopt Successive Interference Cancellation (SIC) to decode multiple received data from IoT devices to improve access efficiency. To enable an energy-sustainable capacity-optimal network, we study the joint problem of dynamic multi-UAV altitude control and multi-cell wireless channel access management of IoT devices as a stochastic control problem with multiple energy constraints. We first formulate this problem as a Constrained Markov Decision Process (CMDP), and propose an online model-free Constrained Deep Reinforcement Learning (CDRL) algorithm based on Lagrangian primal-dual policy optimization to solve the CMDP. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our proposed algorithm learns a cooperative policy in which the altitude of UAVs and channel access probability of IoT devices are dynamically controlled to attain the maximal long-term network capacity while ensuring energy sustainability of UAVs, outperforming baseline schemes. The proposed CDRL agent can be trained on a small network, yet the learned policy can efficiently manage networks with a massive number of IoT devices and varying initial states, which can amortize the cost of training the CDRL agent.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Algorithm for Characterization of Fiber Aggregation in Composite Microstructures

Composite structures are susceptible to localized flaws, or variability, that drive global failure. To capture this variance, a multiscale model needs to be introduced that not only accurately represents the statistical nature of the composite microstructure but is also efficient. At the microscale, fiber aggregation creates local stress concentrations, where failure is likely to occur sooner than expected. A method of rapid microstructure generation, in conjunction with cluster characterization, is examined to develop accurate reproductions of 2D composite cross-sections. Parameterization of shape and size of fiber clusters is used to characterize representative volume elements. The discrete element method is used to generate pseudo-microstructures. The clustering parameters from the pseudo- and actual microstructure arrangements (obtained from micrographs) can be compared to determine the validity of the representative volume element generated with the discrete element method. Results show a promising approach to evaluating randomness of fiber distributions and how to accurately recreate microstructures for strength analysis.

Carbon fiber↗

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations

Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗