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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Model quantification of the effect of coproducts and refinery co-hydrotreating on the economics and greenhouse gas emissions of a conceptual biomass catalytic fast pyrolysis process

Here we present model results for a scaled-up conceptual process informed by bench scale biomass catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) and hydrotreating experimental data. This process uses a Pt/TiO 2 catalyst during CFP, which produces a partially deoxygenated organic biocrude intermediate that is then hydroprocessed to a hydrocarbon fuel blendstock; the catalyst also enables high yields of acetone and methyl-ethyl-ketone (MEK) coproducts. Two options for hydroprocessing were modeled: (A) co-hydrotreating at a petroleum refinery using hydrogen sourced from steam reforming of natural gas and (B) standalone hydrotreating at a biorefinery using hydrogen sourced from CFP off gases. The results revealed that Case A was economically advantageous with a modeled minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $\$$2.83/GGE or gallon gasoline equivalent (in 2016 US dollars), while the additional cost of standalone hydrotreating facilities in Case B increased the MFSP to $3.13/GGE. Conversely, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were lower for Case B (3.9 g CO 2 e/MJ) compared to Case A (21.5 g CO 2 e/MJ) due to the use of biogenic (Case B) and fossil-derived (Case A) hydrogen. In a third option (Case C), the requirements for separation and purification of acetone and MEK were removed from the refinery co-processing scenario (Case A) to evaluate the impacts of this process simplification. Elimination of these coproducts increased the MFSP to $3.21/GGE and GHG emissions to 35 g CO 2 e/MJ. These comparisons based on our detailed conceptual models provide economic and sustainability guidance regarding processing choices for future biorefineries. While refinery coprocessing using existing equipment and the production of relatively valuable coproducts can benefit the economics, the hydrogen-source and biogenic coproducts can have significant impacts on the sustainability of the process, and feasibility to use CFP off-gases or other renewable sources for hydrogen production can help lower GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Process-Based Balance-of-System Cost Modeling for Offshore Wind Power Plants in the United States: Preprint

This work describes the development of a process based and open source balance of system cost model which provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute the times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays due to weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation; installation times are shown to agree with real data with relative errors of less than 35\%. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the functionality of the model. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. This quantifies the cost benefit tradeoffs of decreasing number of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations and shows a net cost savings. These results demonstrate that the BOS model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrocatalytic Reduction of CO 2 to CO over Ag(110) and Cu(211) Modeled by Grand-Canonical Density Functional Theory

We report the results of modeling CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) to CO over Ag(110) and Cu(211) surfaces at different applied potentials using grand-canonical density functional theory (GC-DFT), a method specifically designed to accurately model electrochemical systems. In addition to demonstrating GC-DFT’s ability to accurately model electrochemical processes, we also compare it with the computational hydrogen electrode (CHE) approach. GC-DFT predicts that the geometries of these reacting systems strongly depend on the applied potential and the Helmholtz free energies vary nonlinearly with the applied potential, which contradicts a central assumption of the CHE approach. The CHE approach neglects the change in the number of electrons on the electrode surface at different applied potentials, which reduces its accuracy as the potential changes from the potential of zero charge. Our results further demonstrate that the grand free energies of the reaction intermediates not only depend on the value of the applied potential but also on the metal surface type, adsorption site, and adsorbate. GC-DFT’s ability to predict the effect of the applied potential on adsorbate geometry enables it to evaluate different possible reaction mechanisms at different applied potentials. For instance, GC-DFT predicts that the first step of CO2R likely switches from proton-coupled electron transfer to sequential electron transfer and then proton transfer at more reducing potentials, a result that cannot be determined by the CHE because it assumes that all electron transfers are coupled to proton transfers and neglects the effect of the applied potential on the adsorbate geometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling nuclear waste disposal in crystalline rocks at the Forsmark and Olkiluoto repository sites – Evaluation of potential thermal–mechanical damage to repository excavations

We conduct coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of a KBS-3V repository design in crystalline rocks, using data and conditions from the Forsmark in Olkiluoto repository sites in Sweden and Finland. The study focuses on repository performance related to the impact of thermal and hydraulic evolution on the potential for thermal–mechanical damage to underground repository excavations. For the designs and conditions considered at the Forsmark and Olkiluoto repository sites, the simulations show a peak temperature well under the adopted performance target of a 100°C maximum temperature, whereas there is still a high potential for thermal–mechanical damage to the KBS-3V waste deposition holes. The thermal–mechanical damage is much more likely if rock permeability is so low that it delays saturation and swelling of bentonite-clay-based backfill beyond the time for the thermal–mechanical peak, which occurs 50 to 100 years after nuclear waste deposition. We also found that sidewalls of the KBS-3V emplacement tunnels are vulnerable to tensile fracturing due to the combined effect of thermal stressing and backfill swelling. The study highlights a strong interaction between bentonite-based backfill and host rock through capillary suction along with induced rock desaturation. A careful design and selection of the bentonite-clay-based backfill materials for KBS-3V tunnels and deposition holes can facilitate a timely saturation and backfill swelling that in turn can minimize thermal–mechanical damage.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for $t$-channel scalar and vector leptoquark exchange in the high-mass dimuon and dielectron spectra in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for t-channel exchange of leptoquarks (LQs) is performed in dimuon and dielectron spectra using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Eight scenarios are considered, in which up or down quarks couple to muons or electrons via a scalar or vector LQ exchange, for dilepton invariant masses above 500 GeV. The LQ masses are probed up to 5 TeV, beyond a regime probed by previous pair-production and single-production searches. The differential distributions of dilepton events are fit to templates that model the nonresonant LQ exchange and various standard model background processes. Limits are set on LQ-fermion coupling strengths for scalar and vector LQ masses in the 1–5 TeV range at 95% confidence level, establishing stringent limits on first- and second-generation LQs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Foaming prediction in pure liquids from dimensionless numbers inspired by the theory of fluid behavior for drops

Foaming prediction is critical for selecting materials and designing processes in industries such as bioprocessing and gas processing. Existing models lack the generality needed for a wide range of materials and overlook the foaming behavior in pure liquids. Here, this work presents a novel method for predicting foaming in pure liquids based on their density, surface tension, and viscosity, using Reynolds ( Re ) and Ohnesorge ( Oh ) numbers. A foaming prediction map, leveraging the theory of fluid drop behavior, was developed by plotting these numbers. This map delineates distinct non-foaming and foaming regions, functioning as a binary classifier for foaming predictions. The map was fitted and validated through shake test experiments on 46 liquids, demonstrating reliable predictions, except for a specific region characterized by small Oh and large Re numbers. This region corresponded to relatively low foam stability and high turbulence, making foaming predictions challenging for liquids in this category.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Allometric relationships and trade‐offs in 11 common M editerranean‐climate grasses

Abstract Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant–environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co‐occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process‐based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above‐ and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade‐offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast‐growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf‐to‐stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root‐to‐leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C 4 and C 3 plants. Our study provides species‐specific and functional‐type‐specific allometry equations for both above‐ and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade‐offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Ethanol–Ethyl Acetate System as a Biogenic Hydrogen Carrier

Liquid organic hydrogen carriers will likely be a key element of a future hydrogen economy by enabling the storage and transport of large quantities of hydrogen. Ethanol is a liquid organic hydrogen carrier that is readily available from biological resources, which undergoes a reversible reaction to yield hydrogen and ethyl acetate. The objective of the present study is to obtain a better understanding of the thermodynamic and environmental suitability of the ethanol–ethyl acetate cycle for hydrogen storage applications. The analysis covers three aspects: thermodynamics of the chemical reaction, energy balance of the process, and a first‐order assessment of greenhouse gas emissions. Thermodynamics of the reaction are characterized by a standard Gibbs energy of reaction close to zero which allows the reaction to be shifted between hydrogenation and dehydrogenation within a moderate window of temperature and pressure conditions. The energy demand for dehydrogenation is comparatively small, resulting in an overall system efficiency of 88%. A life cycle greenhouse gas analysis over a 20‐year storage system lifetime gives a carbon intensity of 7.0 kg‐CO 2eq /kg‐H 2 delivered. These results indicate that the ethanol–ethyl acetate system has considerable promise as a hydrogen carrier and should be the subject of further research.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal drivers of dissolved oxygen across a tidal creek–marsh interface revealed by machine learning

Abstract Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key biogeochemical control in coastal systems, and its concentration and drivers vary markedly through time and space. This makes it difficult to accurately represent coastal DO and associated biogeochemical processes in models, limiting our ability to predict how these systems will respond to global change. We obtained high‐frequency (5‐min) in situ measurements of DO collected at three locations across the interface of a tidal creek and coastal marsh in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Random Forest machine learning models quantified the importance of three categories of environmental drivers (Aquatic, Climatic, and Terrestrial) of DO variability across the creek–marsh interface. We selected two 4‐month datasets representing Summer and Winter seasonal periods to test two hypotheses on the dominant drivers of DO at the coastal interface. We found that the Terrestrial driver—characterized by long periods of anaerobic conditions and episodic pulses in DO after floods—was most important during the Winter, whereas the Aquatic driver—characterized by variability over tidal, diel, and lunar cycles—was most important during the Summer. We explored how future climate change scenarios could alter the drivers of DO variability using a cumulative sums driver–response framework. Our results suggest that under climate change, Aquatic and Climatic drivers may increase in importance during the Summer, potentially linked to changing metabolic regimes and sea level, with Terrestrial driver importance potentially increasing during the Winter. Our approach highlights useful methods for understanding the spatiotemporal complexity of oxygen across coastal interfaces and quantifying the relative importance of distinct environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report on G4-Med, a Geant4 benchmarking system for medical physics applications developed by the Geant4 Medical Simulation Benchmarking Group

Geant4 is a Monte Carlo code extensively used in medical physics for a wide range of applications, such as dosimetry, micro- and nanodosimetry, imaging, radiation protection, and nuclear medicine. Geant4 is continuously evolving, so it is crucial to have a system that benchmarks this Monte Carlo code for medical physics against reference data and to perform regression testing. In this work, to respond to these needs, we developed G4-Med, a benchmarking and regression testing system of Geant4 for medical physics. G4-Med currently includes 18 tests. They range from the benchmarking of fundamental physics quantities to the testing of Monte Carlo simulation setups typical of medical physics applications. Both electromagnetic and hadronic physics processes and models within the prebuilt Geant4 physics lists are tested. The tests included in G4-Med are executed on the CERN computing infrastructure via the use of the geant-val web application, developed at CERN for Geant4 testing. The physical observables can be compared to reference data for benchmarking and to results of previous Geant4 versions for regression testing purposes. This paper describes the tests included in G4-Med and shows the results derived from the benchmarking of Geant4 10.5 against reference data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An adaptive space-time phase field formulation for dynamic fracture of brittle shells based on LR NURBS

Here, we present an adaptive space-time phase field formulation for dynamic fracture of brittle shells. Their deformation is characterized by the Kirchhoff–Love thin shell theory using a curvilinear surface description. All kinematical objects are defined on the shell’s mid-plane. The evolution equation for the phase field is determined by the minimization of an energy functional based on Griffith’s theory of brittle fracture. Membrane and bending contributions to the fracture process are modeled separately and a thickness integration is established for the latter. The coupled system consists of two nonlinear fourth-order PDEs and all quantities are defined on an evolving two-dimensional manifold. Since the weak form requires C 1 -continuity, isogeometric shape functions are used. The mesh is adaptively refined based on the phase field using Locally Refinable (LR) NURBS. Time is discretized based on a generalized-α method using adaptive time-stepping, and the discretized coupled system is solved with a monolithic Newton–Raphson scheme. Finally, the interaction between surface deformation and crack evolution is demonstrated by several numerical examples showing dynamic crack propagation and branching.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 6: TEA and LCA of Bio-Based Polyurethanes

For bio-based polyurethane (PU) to replace its conventional petroleum-based counterpart, it must be cost-competitive while providing a positive environmental benefit. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) provide tools to quantify the economic and environmental viability of bio-based PU and to identify key drivers. Here we describe TEA and LCA methodologies for assessing bio-based PU, including an example case study for producing a flexible PU foam. This process has the potential to be cost-competitive with traditional PU based on a published study using a linseed oil proxy feedstock. Bio-based PU also demonstrates environmental advantages in some categories considered but faces challenges in others compared to petroleum-based PU. Further TEA and LCA beyond the case study may enable assessment for alternative product and process variations that are possible for bio-based PU.

bio-based polyurethane↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest structural and compositional change on forest microclimates across a gradient of disturbance severity

Forest structural diversity and community composition are key in regulating forest microclimates. When disturbance affects structural diversity or composition, forest microclimates may be altered due to changes in soil temperature, soil water content, and light availability. It is unclear however which structural or compositional components, when changed or to what extent, result in microclimatic change. To address this question, we used data from a large scale, manipulative stem-girdling experiment in northern, lower Michigan—the Forest Resilience and Threshold Experiment (FoRTE). FoRTE follows a factorial design with multiple levels of disturbance severity (0, 45, 65, 85%) based on targeted reductions in gross leaf area index via stem-girdling induced mortality. These disturbance severity treatments are applied in two ways: either as top-down (largest trees are killed) or bottom-up (small to medium trees killed) treatments. We examined how multiple components of structural diversity and community composition changed as a product of disturbance severity and type, and then tested for resulting effects on forest microclimates (light availability, soil temperature, and soil water), using a multivariate, Random Forest framework. We found that measures of community composition (species richness, species evenness, and Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index) and stand structure (basal area, standard deviation of DBH, tree size diversity) declined more following disturbance than did measures of canopy cover, heterogeneity, arrangement, or height. However, when changes in each variable from pre- to post-disturbance, measured as log change, were employed in a multivariate, Random Forest regression framework, structural diversity measures of heterogeneity (rugosity, top rugosity), cover (canopy cover), and arrangement (porosity) were the most influential variables, but with differences among bottom-up and top-down treatments We found that the death of large trees from disturbance impacts soil temperature, water, and light environments more substantially and uniformly across disturbance gradients than does the death of smaller trees. Furthermore, our results have implications for both statistical and process-based modeling of forest disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗