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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time trend analysis of rare cancer incidence 2011–2018: Nationwide population-based cancer registries in Japan

Rare cancers collectively account for a significant proportion of the overall cancer burden in Japan. We aimed to describe and examine the incidence of each rare cancer and the temporal changes using the internationally agreed rare cancer classification. Cancer cases registered in regional population-based cancer registries from 2011 to 2015 and the National Cancer Registry (NCR) from 2016 to 2018 were classified into 18 families, 68 Tier-1 cancer groupings, and 216 single cancer entities based on the RARECAREnet list. Crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated for Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The annual percent change and the 95% and 99% confidence limits for annual ASR for each of the 68 Tier-1 cancers were estimated using the log-linear regression of the weighted least squares method. The differences in ASRs between 2011 and 2018 were evaluated as an absolute change. A total of 5,640,879 cases were classified into Tier-1 and Tier-2 cancers. The ASRs of 18 out of 52 Tier-1 cancers in the rare cancer families increased, whereas the ASR for epithelial tumors of gallbladder decreased. The ASRs of 6 out of the 16 Tier-1 cancers in the common cancer families increased, whereas those of epithelial tumors of stomach and liver decreased. There was no significant change in the incidence of the other 40 Tier-1 cancers. The incidence of several cancers increased due to the dissemination of diagnostic concepts, improved diagnostic techniques, changes in coding practice, and the initiation of the NCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Disorder‐Induced Strain and Carrier Localization Activate Reverse Halide Segregation

The reversal of halide ions is studied under various conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of heat-induced reversal remains unclear. This work finds that dynamic disorder-induced localization of self-trapped polarons and thermal disorder-induced strain (TDIS) can be co-acting drivers of reverse segregation. Localization of polarons results in an order of magnitude decrease in excess carrier density (polaron population), causing a reduced impact of the light-induced strain (LIS – responsible for segregation) on the perovskite framework. Meanwhile, exposing the lattice to TDIS exceeding the LIS can eliminate the photoexcitation-induced strain gradient, as thermal fluctuations of the lattice can mask the LIS strain. Under continuous 0.1 W cm -2 illumination (upon segregation), the strain disorder is estimated to be 0.14%, while at 80 °C under dark conditions, the strain is 0.23%. However, in situ heating of the segregated film to 80 °C under continuous illumination (upon reversal) increases the total strain disorder to 0.25%, where TDIS is likely to have a dominant contribution. Therefore, the contribution of entropy to the system's free energy is likely to dominate, respectively. Various temperature-dependent in situ measurements and simulations further support the results. These findings highlight the importance of strain homogenization for designing stable perovskites under real-world operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet-bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw-based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ~2 by the mid-century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris-compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Velocity dispersions of clusters in the Dark Energy Survey Y3 redMaPPer catalogue

ABSTRACT We measure the velocity dispersions of clusters of galaxies selected by the red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation (redMaPPer) algorithm in the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), allowing us to probe cluster selection and richness estimation, λ, in light of cluster dynamics. Our sample consists of 126 clusters with sufficient spectroscopy for individual velocity dispersion estimates. We examine the correlations between cluster velocity dispersion, richness, X-ray temperature, and luminosity, as well as central galaxy velocity offsets. The velocity dispersion–richness relation exhibits a bimodal distribution. The majority of clusters follow scaling relations between velocity dispersion, richness, and X-ray properties similar to those found for previous samples; however, there is a significant population of clusters with velocity dispersions that are high for their richness. These clusters account for roughly 22 per cent of the λ < 70 systems in our sample, but more than half (55 per cent) of λ < 70 clusters at z > 0.5. A couple of these systems are hot and X-ray bright as expected for massive clusters with richnesses that appear to have been underestimated, but most appear to have high velocity dispersions for their X-ray properties likely due to line-of-sight structure. These results suggest that projection effects contribute significantly to redMaPPer selection, particularly at higher redshifts and lower richnesses. The redMaPPer determined richnesses for the velocity dispersion outliers are consistent with their X-ray properties, but several are X-ray undetected and deeper data are needed to understand their nature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Postoperative Injury and Military Discharge Status After Knee Surgery in the US Army

Background: Researchers have assessed postoperative injury or disability predictors in the military setting but typically focused on 1 type of surgical procedure at a time, used relatively small sample sizes, or investigated mixed cohorts with civilian populations. Purpose: To identify the relationship between baseline variables and injury incidence or military discharge status in US Army soldiers after knee surgery. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Data were obtained from a repository containing personnel, performance, and medical records for all active-duty US Army soldiers. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to estimate the effects of numerous variables on postoperative injury or on medical discharge. Variable selection and model validation were conducted using the k-fold method. Results: A total of 7567 soldiers underwent knee surgery between 2017 and 2019. Meniscal procedures were the most common type of surgery (39%), and approximately 71% of the cohort had a postoperative injury. Significant predictors for sustaining a postoperative injury included having a previous nonknee injury (odds ratio [OR], 1.5), female sex (OR, 1.3), and Black race (OR, 1.2). Within 4 years after surgery, 17% of soldiers were discharged from the military because of knee-related disability. Significant predictors for discharge from duty included enlisted rank (OR, 2.3), recent fitness test failure (OR, 1.9), number of previous knee surgeries (OR, 1.7), and having a previous nonknee injury (OR, 1.6). Conclusion: After knee surgery, nearly three-fourths of the soldiers in this cohort sustained a postoperative injury and almost one-fifth of soldiers were medically discharged from the military within 4 years. This study identified variables that indicate statistically increased risk for these postoperative outcomes and highlighted potentially modifiable factors.

Orthopedics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large Evolutionary Rate Heterogeneity among and within HIV-1 Subtypes and CRFs

HIV-1 is a fast-evolving, genetically diverse virus presently classified into several groups and subtypes. The virus evolves rapidly because of an error-prone polymerase, high rates of recombination, and selection in response to the host immune system and clinical management of the infection. The rate of evolution is also influenced by the rate of virus spread in a population and nature of the outbreak, among other factors. HIV-1 evolution is thus driven by a range of complex genetic, social, and epidemiological factors that complicates disease management and prevention. Here, we quantify the evolutionary (substitution) rate heterogeneity among major HIV-1 subtypes and recombinants by analyzing the largest collection of HIV-1 genetic data spanning the widest possible geographical (100 countries) and temporal (1981–2019) spread. We show that HIV-1 substitution rates vary substantially, sometimes by several folds, both across the virus genome and between major subtypes and recombinants, but also within a subtype. Across subtypes, rates ranged 3.5-fold from 1.34 × 10−3 to 4.72 × 10−3 in env and 2.3-fold from 0.95 × 10−3 to 2.18 × 10−3 substitutions site−1 year−1 in pol. Within the subtype, 3-fold rate variation was observed in env in different human populations. It is possible that HIV-1 lineages in different parts of the world are operating under different selection pressures leading to substantial rate heterogeneity within and between subtypes. We further highlight how such rate heterogeneity can complicate HIV-1 phylodynamic studies, specifically, inferences on epidemiological linkage of transmission clusters based on genetic distance or phylogenetic data, and can mislead estimates about the timing of HIV-1 lineages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Structurally-Adaptive Framework for Distributed Airborne Sensing over Real-time Collaborative Information Sharing Networks

The emergence and maturation of wireless communication technologies continue to transform the aviation industry and are enabling new solutions to challenges faced by NASA’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) initiative. AAM is leading towards high-density autonomous aircraft operations in areas underserved by traditional aviation, such as over densely populated urban centers. In this paper, we build on concepts from Smart Spaces - where sensing, processing, and communication are embedded in an environment, and agents are operating within the space can exploit these capabilities in real-time through collaborative information sharing networks. Building from these concepts, we propose a framework to enable a dynamic, topologically-adaptive, and distributed estimation system for man-rated aviation to address challenges faced by autonomous AAM operations. This paper presents the initial concept of operations and system design for this framework, presents a mathematical formulation for abstraction of the problem, identifies requirements and constraints for operation, and presents algorithmic constructs and mathematical formalisms to demonstrate operation. The proposed framework will be evaluated on a regional AAM flight scenario and will focus on two initial applications: (1) GPS-free navigation supporting precision approach and landing (PAL), and (2) surveillance and conformance monitoring of aircraft in vertiport airspaces. Such approaches show promise in addressing gaps in current technologies needed to enable future AAM concepts, while promising greater capabilities, performance, robustness, and safety over current aviation systems and operations.

Structurally-Adaptive↗
DOE OSTI2020

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance surveillance: shifting trends in study design and prevalence estimates

HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence increased during the initial years of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) global scale-up. Few studies have examined recent trends in TDR prevalence using published genetic sequences and described the characteristics of ART-naïve persons from whom these published sequences have been obtained. We identified 125 studies published between 2014 and 2019 for which HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) with or without protease from ≥50 ART-naïve adult persons were submitted to the GenBank sequence database. The population characteristics and TDR prevalence were compared to those in 122 studies published in the preceding five years between 2009 and 2013. TDR prevalence was analysed using median study-level and person-level data. The 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2019 studies reported sequence data from 32,866 and 41,724 ART-naïve persons respectively. Studies from the low- and middle-income country (LMIC) regions in sub-Saharan Africa, South/Southeast Asia and Latin America/Caribbean accounted for approximately two-thirds of the studies during each period. Between the two periods, the proportion of studies from sub-Saharan Africa and from South/Southeast Asia countries other than China decreased from 43% to 32% and the proportion of studies performed at sentinel sites for recent HIV-1 infection decreased from 33% to 22%. Between 2014 and 2019, median study-level TDR prevalence was 4.1% in South/Southeast Asia, 6.0% in sub-Saharan Africa, 9.1% in Latin America/Caribbean, 8.5% in Europe and 14.2% in North America. In the person-level analysis, there was an increase in overall, NNRTI and two-class NRTI/NNRTI resistance in sub-Saharan Africa; an increase in NNRTI resistance in Latin America/Caribbean, and an increase in overall, NNRTI and PI resistance in North America. Overall, NNRTI and dual NRTI/NNRTI-associated TDR prevalence was significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa studies published between 2014 and 2019 compared with those published between 2009 and 2013. The decreasing proportion of studies from the hardest hit LMIC regions and the shift away from sentinel sites for recent infection suggests that global TDR surveillance efforts and publication of findings require renewed emphasis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron

Abstract New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of competition of spherical and deformed shells in quasifission of superheavy nuclei

Quasifission and fusion-fission represent the two most likely reaction outcomes to occur postcapture in collisions leading to superheavy nuclei. As such, understanding these mechanisms and how they relate to one another is key to understanding the intricate dynamics that drive the formation (or dissociation) of the nascent compound nuclei formed in fusion reactions. This understanding directly translates to a more informed picture of suitable reaction partners and can provide vital information for experimental efforts to study the physics and chemistry of superheavy elements. In this work we report results from time-dependent simulations of 48 Ca + 238 U and 50 Ti + 236 Th reactions at incident energies just above the Coulomb barrier with a focus on the quasifission process that prevent the formation of a fully equilibrated 286 Cn compound nucleus. We study these reactions systematically and consider a wide range of initial configurations to extract a robust estimate of primary fragment yields for the quasifission process. Multiple preferred exit channels are observed, with both spherical and deformed shell effects in the heavy and light fragments driving contributions to the production yields depending on the initial configuration of the system. Orientation effects of the deformed actinide targets are found to be a primary driver of which exit channels are populated. Here, the impact of moving away from a doubly magic projectile is explored with implications towards the reactions considered for current and future superheavy searches.

Gumbel, Richard [Michigan State University, East L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Risk of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard cohort study – five years of follow-up

Abstract Introduction Long-term endocrine and metabolic health risks associated with oil spill cleanup exposures are largely unknown, despite the endocrine-disrupting potential of crude oil and oil dispersant constituents. We aimed to investigate risks of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions among U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Methods Our study population included all active duty DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort members ( N = 45,224). Self-reported spill exposures were ascertained from post-deployment surveys. Incident endocrine and metabolic outcomes were defined using International Classification of Diseases (9th Revision) diagnostic codes from military health encounter records up to 5.5 years post-DWH. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for various incident endocrine and metabolic diagnoses (2010–2015, and separately during 2010–2012 and 2013–2015). Results The mean baseline age was 30 years (~ 77% white, ~ 86% male). Compared to non-responders ( n = 39,260), spill responders ( n = 5,964) had elevated risks for simple and unspecified goiter (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.29–3.38) and disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00–1.18), including its subcategory other and unspecified hyperlipidemia (aHR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.21). The dysmetabolic syndrome X risk was elevated only during 2010–2012 (aHR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.22–3.51). Responders reporting ever ( n = 1,068) vs. never ( n = 2,424) crude oil inhalation exposure had elevated risks for disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00–1.53), including its subcategory pure hypercholesterolemia (aHR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08–2.72), the overweight, obesity and other hyperalimentation subcategory of unspecified obesity (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.09–2.13), and abnormal weight gain (aHR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.04–6.55). Risk estimates for endocrine/metabolic conditions were generally stronger among responders reporting exposure to both crude oil and dispersants (vs. neither) than among responders reporting only oil exposure (vs. neither). Conclusion In this large cohort of active duty USCG responders to the DWH disaster, oil spill cleanup exposures were associated with elevated risks for longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions.

Denic-Roberts, Hristina↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wild Isolates of Neurospora crassa Reveal Three Conidiophore Architectural Phenotypes

The vegetative life cycle in the model filamentous fungus, Neurospora crassa, relies on the development of conidiophores to produce new spores. Environmental, temporal, and genetic components of conidiophore development have been well characterized; however, little is known about their morphological variation. We explored conidiophore architectural variation in a natural population using a wild population collection of 21 strains from Louisiana, United States of America (USA). Our work reveals three novel architectural phenotypes, Wild Type, Bulky, and Wrap, and shows their maintenance throughout the duration of conidiophore development. Furthermore, we present a novel image-classifier using a convolutional neural network specifically developed to assign conidiophore architectural phenotypes in a high-throughput manner. To estimate an inheritance model for this discrete complex trait, crosses between strains of each phenotype were conducted, and conidiophores of subsequent progeny were characterized using the trained classifier. Our model suggests that conidiophore architecture is controlled by at least two genes and has a heritability of 0.23. Additionally, we quantified the number of conidia produced by each conidiophore type and their dispersion distance, suggesting that conidiophore architectural phenotype may impact N. crassa colonization capacity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Compositional evidence regarding the influx of interplanetary materials onto the lunar surface

Siderophilic element/Ir ratios are higher in mature lunar soils from highlands sites than in those from mare sites. It is suggested that the population of materials responsible for the early intense bombardment of the moon had high ratios and that the population responsible for the essentially constant flux has low ratios. Arguments are summarized against the viewpoint that the siderophiles in most highlands breccias originated in basin-forming projectiles. Differences in mature soil siderophile concentrations at the Apollo 14 and 16 sites indicate a substantially greater concentration at the latter site immediately following the Imbrium event. Siderophile concentrations are used to estimate mean regolith depths at the landing sites. The long-lived flux is calculated to be 2.9 g per cm per aeon averaged over the past 3.7 aeons. Consideration of the relationship between mass fluence and time indicates that the mass flux decreased with a half-life of about 40 million years immediately following the Imbrium event.

Wasson, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Commercial Fishing Port Development in North Florida

The author has identified the following significant results. Seven major counties were examined: Escambia, Bay, Gulf, Franklin, Wakulla, Nassau, and Duval. Population and economic activity were reviewed, along with commercial fishing and port facilities. Recommendations for five northwest Florida counties were based on interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite imagery, an aerial survey site visit, and published data. Major needs in Pensacola included docking, ice supply, and net and engine repair services. Costs for additional docks, an ice plant, and gear storage were estimated at $3,658,600. Port users in Panama City identified additional docking and gear storage as primary needs, along with gear repair and a marine railway. Estimated costs for dock and gear storage were $2,860,000. Added docking, gear storage, and ice supply, as well as gear electronics and diesel repair were needed in Port St. Joe. Costs were calculated at $1,231,500. Franklin County has three ports (Apalachicola - $1,107,000 for docks and gear storage, Eastpoint - $420,000 for additional docks, and Carrabella - $2,824,100 for docks, gear storage, and ice plant).

Mathis, K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

History of oxygen and carbon escape from the Martian atmosphere

A fraction of the oxygen in the Martian atmosphere continually escapes to space because dissociative recombination of the O2(+) ions in the ionosphere can impart sufficient energy to the product O atoms. In addition, ionization of the extended atomic oxygen corona resulting from the above process adds to escape since the solar wind can carry away O(+) ions born above a few hundred km altitude. A further by-product of this ion-pickup by the solar wind is an additional population of escaping oxygen atoms that are sputtered from the atmosphere near the exobase by pickup ions that are on reentry rather than escaping trajectories. This sputtering process can also remove carbon in the form of intact or dissociated CO2 since all atoms and molecules in the 'target' gas are subject to the collisional energy transfer that characterizes sputtering. We have estimated the present rates of escape of oxygen and carbon due to these mechanisms, as well as the rates at several epochs in the history of the solar system.

Luhmann, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Neural Networks for Bayesian Inference of Model Uncertainty

The objective of this work was to develop a genetic optimization algorithm that can design a neural network capable of producing uncertainty estimates along with predictions. This algorithm is necessary because the inclusion of uncertainty modeling in a neural network greatly complicates the network’s design space, making the development of a converging model extremely difficult and time consuming. The genetic algorithm presented in this work uses a number of value ranges for various configurable neural network parameters to create a randomly generated population of network architectures. The initially generated population is then evolved over the course of several generations, with the best performing models breeding to produce novel network configurations. Mutations are randomly applied to the network designs to facilitate the development of adaptations beneficial to the task being performed. An experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, in which the genetic optimizer was tasked with producing a neural network capable of predicting the sound pressure level (SPL) resulting from jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise. The data used for this task was generated at the NASA Glenn Research Center in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory. Starting with an initial population size of 35 randomly generated networks, and evolved over the course of 10 generations, the genetic algorithm produced a design able to predict SPL as a result of JSI noise within 0.272 dB, on average.

Genetic algorithm↗