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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗

Software life cycle dynamic simulation model: The organizational performance submodel

The submodel structure of a software life cycle dynamic simulation model is described. The software process is divided into seven phases, each with product, staff, and funding flows. The model is subdivided into an organizational response submodel, a management submodel, a management influence interface, and a model analyst interface. The concentration here is on the organizational response model, which simulates the performance characteristics of a software development subject to external and internal influences. These influences emanate from two sources: the model analyst interface, which configures the model to simulate the response of an implementing organization subject to its own internal influences, and the management submodel that exerts external dynamic control over the production process. A complete characterization is given of the organizational response submodel in the form of parameterized differential equations governing product, staffing, and funding levels. The parameter values and functions are allocated to the two interfaces.

Tausworthe, Robert C.↗

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increasing accessibility to deep learning-based analytics for space biology: pretrained models, transfer learning, and analytics platform development

Biological systems react in complex ways to the stressors of spaceflight, and the data capturing these relationships is concomitantly high-dimensional and complex. Deep learning and machine learning approaches are increasingly popular as an analytical approach for space biosciences, due to their ability to model complex relationships in complex data. However, such approaches often require large datasets and extensive computational resources. New approaches that minimize data sizes and computational power needed to leverage machine learning, and resources that make these approaches accessible, are needed to increase accessibility and adoption of machine learning in the space biosciences. Transfer learning, in which a pretrained model of broad utility is trained on a large dataset, and subsequently reused on downstream applications for which data is more limited, is one approach to minimizing data and computational intensity of deep learning applications. This transfer learning approach results in more performant models in high-dimensional, low-sample-size settings such as space biology, as compared to training models on limited data from scratch. This presentation will outline efforts to generate pretrained models for the space biology community, and highlight transfer learning applications modeling microbial antibiotic resistance during spaceflight. Finally, in order to increase accessibility of these models and tools, as well as others, for the broader space biology community, we present a modeling and analysis platform facilitating machine learning applications in space biology. This platform streamlines machine learning training and analysis in a notebook format, facilitates download and use of space biology data from the NASA GeneLab database, and can be utilized on NASA-hosted servers or downloaded and hosted locally. This effort, as part of the AI4LS (Artificial Intelligence for Life in Space) working group, will increase accessibility, feasibility, and performance of machine learning approaches for the space biology community.

Adrienne Hoarfrost↗

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Ice-Ridge Pile Up and the Genesis of Martian "Shorelines"

Unique geomorphologic features such as basin terraces exhibiting topographic continuity have been found within several Martian craters as shown in Viking, MOC, and THEMIS images. These features, showing similarity to terrestrial shorelines, have been mapped and cataloged with significant effort [1]. Currently, open wave action on the surface of paleolakes has been hypothesized as the geomorphologic agent responsible for the generation of these features [2]. As consequence, feature interpretations, including shorelines, wave-cut benches, and bars are, befittingly, lacustrine. Because such interpretations and their formation mechanisms have profound implications for the climate and potential biological history of Mars, confidence is crucial. The insight acquired through linked quantitative modeling of geomorphologic agents and processes is key to accurately interpreting these features. In this vein, recent studies [3,4] involving the water wave energy in theoretical open water basins on Mars show minimal erosional effects due to water waves under Martian conditions. Consequently, sub-glacial lake flattens the surface, produces a local velocity increase over the lake, and creates a deviation of the ice flow from the main flow direction [11]. These consequences of ice flow are observed at Lake Vostok, Antarctica an excellent Martian analogue [11]. Martian observations include reticulate terrain exhibiting sharp inter-connected ridges speculated to reflect the deposition and reworking of ice blocks at the periphery of ice-covered lakes throughout Hellas [12]. Our model determines to what extent ice, a terrestrial geomorphologic agent, can alter the Martian landscape. Method: We study the evolution of crater ice plugs as the formation mechanism of surface features frequently identified as shorelines. In particular, we perform model integrations involving parameters such as ice slope and purity, atmospheric pressure and temperature, crater shape and composition, and an energy balance between solar flux, geothermal flux, latent heat, and ablation. Our ultimate goal is to understand how an intracrater ice plug could create the observed shoreline features and how these

Barnhart, C. J.↗

BioSentinel: Leading the Way for Deep Space CubeSat Missions

Flagship science missions are not alone in Deep Space thanks to BioSentinel, a 6U spacecraft launched on Artemis-1. BioSentinel is one of the longest operating CubeSats beyond cislunar space. The subsystems and COTS components of the BioSentinel bus are a template for future deep space missions, and the lessons learned from over a year of operations will enable improved performance for the next missions. BioSentinel achieved its unprecedented performance for an SLS secondary payload due to preparation, planning, and a robust design. Pre-launch antenna and interface testing with both DSN and ESA confirmed command and data pathways and allowed for operational flexibility in the critical early hours post-deployment. Mission Operations simulations prior to launch identified potential risks and primed operators to respond in flight, preparing the team to react quickly to successfully detumble the spacecraft and enter a power-positive state. The spacecraft would not have survived without the inclusion of the trailblazing 3D-printed composite cold gas propulsion system. The non-standard tank geometry enabled efficient use of the limited space available in the CubeSat, as well as the capability to detumble the spacecraft and manage momentum, while providing sufficient margin to execute potential delta-V maneuvers. The Iris radio has operated for over 18 months with no significant issues. Initial Iris performance estimates have been accurate throughout the mission. BioSentinel continues to collect data on thermal conditions and to validate our performance models with real-world knowledge. We have received exemplary support from our DSN partners. Following the conclusion of the primary science mission, the Linear Energy Transfer (LET) Spectrometer continued to collect solar and galactic radiation data from its location in heliocentric orbit. The free space dataset offered by the BioSentinel LET is a valuable source of data for model validation and future mission planning. As the spacecraft travels farther from Earth it is poised to provide longitudinally distributed measurements of solar particle events during solar maximum. The lessons learned from BioSentinel suggest key areas to enhance performance. The ability to upload modified flight software can increase the stability of memory management. Additional heaters in the propulsion system design have already proven successful on the Starling mission. Streamlining mission operations can reduce costs, increase data return, and better utilize DSN time. Enhancements such as these will facilitate reliable, long-duration deep space exploration using the proven BioSentinel 6U CubeSat bus.

BioSentinel↗

Validation of the Lockheed Martin Morphing Concept with Wind Tunnel Testing

The Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) program is a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) led effort to develop morphing flight vehicles capable of radical shape change in flight. Two performance parameters of interest are loiter time and dash speed as these define the persistence and responsiveness of an aircraft. The geometrical characteristics that optimize loiter time and dash speed require different geometrical planforms. Therefore, radical shape change, usually involving wing area and sweep, allows vehicle optimization across many flight regimes. The second phase of the MAS program consisted of wind tunnel tests conducted at the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel to demonstrate two morphing concepts and their enabling technologies with large-scale semi-span models. This paper will focus upon one of those wind tunnel tests that utilized a model developed by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company (LM). Wind tunnel success criteria were developed by NASA to support the DARPA program objectives. The primary focus of this paper will be the demonstration of the DARPA objectives by systematic evaluation of the wind tunnel model performance relative to the defined success criteria. This paper will also provide a description of the LM model and instrumentation, and document pertinent lessons learned. Finally, as part of the success criteria, aeroelastic characteristics of the LM derived MAS vehicle are also addressed. Evaluation of aeroelastic characteristics is the most detailed criterion investigated in this paper. While no aeroelastic instabilities were encountered as a direct result of the morphing design or components, several interesting and unexpected aeroelastic phenomenon arose during testing.

Ivanco, Thomas G.↗

Dark matter trigger for early dark energy coincidence

Current cosmological measurements present a persistent tension in the value of the current cosmic expansion rate, the Hubble constant, as inferred from cosmic microwave background (CMB) and large-scale structure (LSS) data compared to that inferred from the classical distance ladder. Early dark energy (EDE), whose cosmological role is localized in time around the epoch of matter-radiation equality just prior to the release of the CMB photons, is designed to resolve this "Hubble tension". However, the model introduces a new coincidence problem: Why should the EDE dynamics occur near matter-radiation equality if EDE is decoupled from both matter and radiation? The resolution of this problem may lie in an early dark sector (EDS), wherein the dark matter mass is dependent on the EDE scalar field. In this work, we construct such an EDS model and show that it naturally resolves the EDE coincidence problem at the background level without any fine-tuning of the coupling to dark matter or of the initial conditions. When fitting to current cosmological data, including that from the local distance ladder, CMB, and LSS, our EDS maximum-likelihood model performs comparably to EDE for resolving the Hubble tension. However, fitting the Planck CMB data requires a specific range of initial field positions to balance the scalar field fluctuations that drive acoustic oscillations, providing testable differences with other EDE models and a platform for future model-building.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PERTS: A Prototyping Environment for Real-Time Systems

PERTS is a prototyping environment for real-time systems. It is being built incrementally and will contain basic building blocks of operating systems for time-critical applications, tools, and performance models for the analysis, evaluation and measurement of real-time systems and a simulation/emulation environment. It is designed to support the use and evaluation of new design approaches, experimentations with alternative system building blocks, and the analysis and performance profiling of prototype real-time systems.

Liu, Jane W. S.↗

Design of object-oriented distributed simulation classes

Distributed simulation of aircraft engines as part of a computer aided design package is being developed by NASA Lewis Research Center for the aircraft industry. The project is called NPSS, an acronym for 'Numerical Propulsion Simulation System'. NPSS is a flexible object-oriented simulation of aircraft engines requiring high computing speed. It is desirable to run the simulation on a distributed computer system with multiple processors executing portions of the simulation in parallel. The purpose of this research was to investigate object-oriented structures such that individual objects could be distributed. The set of classes used in the simulation must be designed to facilitate parallel computation. Since the portions of the simulation carried out in parallel are not independent of one another, there is the need for communication among the parallel executing processors which in turn implies need for their synchronization. Communication and synchronization can lead to decreased throughput as parallel processors wait for data or synchronization signals from other processors. As a result of this research, the following have been accomplished. The design and implementation of a set of simulation classes which result in a distributed simulation control program have been completed. The design is based upon MIT 'Actor' model of a concurrent object and uses 'connectors' to structure dynamic connections between simulation components. Connectors may be dynamically created according to the distribution of objects among machines at execution time without any programming changes. Measurements of the basic performance have been carried out with the result that communication overhead of the distributed design is swamped by the computation time of modules unless modules have very short execution times per iteration or time step. An analytical performance model based upon queuing network theory has been designed and implemented. Its application to realistic configurations has not been carried out.

Schoeffler, James D.↗

Design of Object-Oriented Distributed Simulation Classes

Distributed simulation of aircraft engines as part of a computer aided design package being developed by NASA Lewis Research Center for the aircraft industry. The project is called NPSS, an acronym for "Numerical Propulsion Simulation System". NPSS is a flexible object-oriented simulation of aircraft engines requiring high computing speed. It is desirable to run the simulation on a distributed computer system with multiple processors executing portions of the simulation in parallel. The purpose of this research was to investigate object-oriented structures such that individual objects could be distributed. The set of classes used in the simulation must be designed to facilitate parallel computation. Since the portions of the simulation carried out in parallel are not independent of one another, there is the need for communication among the parallel executing processors which in turn implies need for their synchronization. Communication and synchronization can lead to decreased throughput as parallel processors wait for data or synchronization signals from other processors. As a result of this research, the following have been accomplished. The design and implementation of a set of simulation classes which result in a distributed simulation control program have been completed. The design is based upon MIT "Actor" model of a concurrent object and uses "connectors" to structure dynamic connections between simulation components. Connectors may be dynamically created according to the distribution of objects among machines at execution time without any programming changes. Measurements of the basic performance have been carried out with the result that communication overhead of the distributed design is swamped by the computation time of modules unless modules have very short execution times per iteration or time step. An analytical performance model based upon queuing network theory has been designed and implemented. Its application to realistic configurations has not been carried out.

Schoeffler, James D.↗

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical 'cores' of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. The two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical 'simple physics' parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

An Intercomparison of the Dynamical Cores of Global Atmospheric Circulation Models for Mars

This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Cen- ter and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. The focus of this JRI has been to evaluate the dynamical "cores" of two global atmospheric circulation models for Mars that are in operation at the NASA Ames Research Center. ne two global circulation models in use are fundamentally different: one uses spherical harmonics in its horizontal representation of field variables; the other uses finite differences on a uniform longitude-latitude grid. Several simulations have been conducted to assess how the dynamical processors of each of these circulation models perform using identical "simple physics" parameterizations. A variety of climate statistics (e.g., time-mean flows and eddy fields) have been compared for realistic solstitial mean basic states. Results of this research have demonstrated that the two Mars circulation models with completely different spatial representations and discretizations produce rather similar circulation statistics for first-order meteorological fields, suggestive of a tendency for convergence of numerical solutions. Second and higher-order fields can, however, vary significantly between the two models.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗