Uncertainty propagation in full-core Monte Carlo depletion simulations using Serpent
The desire to accurately model the heterogeneity of the nuclear reactor environment combined with the ever more powerful computational resources have made in recent years the use of Monte Carlo method more attractive and feasible (if challenging) even for 3-D full core depletion simulation. However, in this case statistical uncertainty is combined with error propagating through the calculation from previous steps. In an effort to understand this error propagation, a numerical study was undertaken and previously reported modeling depletion of a four fuel assemblies (a 'quad'). This work extends results and analysis on a full nuclear reactor core depletion simulation where isotopics of individual fuel pins is tracked. By changing the code's initial random number seed, the data produced by a series of 19 replica runs was used to investigate the true and apparent variance in k{sub eff} and pin powers. It is hoped that this results can help to identify some common regularities in the behavior of uncertainty in several key parameters, and ultimately develop a predictive model. (authors)