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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyPVRPM: Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model in Python

The ability to perform accurate techno-economic analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is essential for bankability and investment purposes. Most energy yield models assume an almost flawless operation (i.e., no failures); however, realistically, components fail and get repaired stochastically. This package, PyPVRPM, is a Python translation and improvement of the Language Kit (LK) based PhotoVoltaic Reliability Performance Model (PVRPM), which was first developed at Sandia National Laboratories in Goldsim software (Granata et al., 2011) (Miller et al., 2012). PyPVRPM allows the user to define a PV system at a specific location and incorporate failure, repair, and detection rates and distributions to calculate energy yield and other financial metrics such as the levelized cost of energy and net present value (Klise, Lavrova, et al., 2017). Our package is a simulation tool that uses NREL’s Python interface for System Advisor Model (SAM) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020b) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2020a) to evaluate the performance of a PV plant throughout its lifetime by considering component reliability metrics. Besides the numerous benefits from migrating to Python (e.g., speed, libraries, batch analyses), it also expands on the failure and repair processes from the LK version by including the ability to vary monitoring strategies. These failures, repairs, and monitoring processes are based on user-defined distributions and values, enabling a more accurate and realistic representation of cost and availability throughout a PV system’s lifetime.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of Collectible Items in the Rancor Microworld Simulator Compared to Full-scope Studies

Most studies collecting reliability data in human reliability analysis (HRA) have concentrated on research using full-scope simulators and actual operators. However, several researchers have found that there are challenges to collecting the variety of items as well as the amount of data needed to support HRA. As an opposite and complementing approach to the full-scope study, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed a simplified simulator, i.e., Rancor Microworld, for generating HRA data based on student subjects. This paper aims to identify collectible items in Rancor Microworld versus full-scope simulators. In this paper, collectible items and their different analysis levels in Rancor Microworld are identified in comparison with full-scope simulators. Then, how to treat the items is suggested with experiment directions that will be treated in the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

DEVELOPMENT OF OIL FREE CENTRIFUGAL BLOWER AS ENABLING TECHNOLOGY FOR SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL ANODE GAS RECYCLING

Broad commercialization of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), requires anode offgas recycle blowers (AORB) that are specifically designed for handling the challenging operating conditions presented by the SOFC process gases. Otherwise, they can be susceptible to frequent maintenance, low reliability, and short life. This work presents details of the development and testing of an oil-free, low cost centrifugal AORB based on compliant foil bearing (CFB) technology for support of a 100 kW solid oxide fuel cell power plant. The advantages of this novel technology are discussed, particularly its long life and maintenance-free operation, which are derived from the use of CFBs. Also included are preliminary techno-economic analysis considerations for cost-effective deployment of the technology.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexible Operation of Microgrids Through Operator-Configurable Microgrid Controllers

Microgrids are becoming critical assets in power distribution systems. This is partly due to the resiliency and reliability challenges faced by power distribution systems in the last decade and partly due to the increased integration of distributed energy resource assets, such as solar photovoltaic. This increased need for microgrids has created a multitude of needs for microgrid controllers. Most microgrid controllers in the past decade have been uniquely programmed or custom programmed to meet the needs of a specific microgrid. Currently, IEEE standards aim to integrate the needs and capabilities of microgrid controllers under a unified umbrella. But the standards do not recommend necessary or appropriate software development practices for microgrid controllers. In addition, the programmable nature and maintenance of controllers are also key characteristics that fall outside the coverage of the standards. In this paper, we present the best software practices that utility engineers and microgrid operators should consider in the microgrid software platform. This paper can be used as an information document for developing documentation of controller requirements and assessing microgrid controller requirements.

Banshee microgrid↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Optimization of an Electrochemical Purification Cell to Prevent Corrosion in CSP Plants During Operation

When exposed to moisture or oxygen, molten chloride salts produce corrosive impurities which degrade containment alloys. As a result, this can significantly decrease the lifetime and increase costs of molten-salt-based systems. To overcome this barrier, we designed and modeled an electrochemical purification cell to remove the corrosive impurity MgOH+. Various reactor architectures, including constant stirred tank reactors (CSTRs) and plug flow reactors (PFRs) were investigated. Steady-state thermoelectric properties were evaluated, allowing assessment of the effects of structure and design parameters such as flow rate, cell length, and cross-sectional area of molten salt. The results suggest that our design could most effectively increase reliability and decrease costs of molten-chloride-salt-based systems by protecting them during continuous operation using an annular plug flow reactor.

chloride salts↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of Deploying Advanced Pumped Storage Hydropower Technology in U.S. Electricity Markets

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a type of hydropower technology where energy can be stored and generated by moving water between two reservoirs of differing elevations. In addition to providing 97% of the total utility-scale hydropower storage in the United States, PSH plants have operational characteristics - such as high ramp rates and the ability to provide reserves - that contribute to greater flexibility and reliability of the power grid. New PSH technologies can provide additional flexibility beyond existing, fixed-speed units. With the emergence of high levels of variable renewable energy resources (e.g., wind and solar), energy storage is expected to be crucial to the reliability and reliance of the power grid in a low-carbon future. At diurnal and longer durations, PSH plants have some of the lowest costs per unit of energy, have been proven to be reliable and efficient, are not cycle-limited, and typically have long lives, often exceeding 50 years. The work presented here focuses on a new generation of PSH: ternary PSH and quaternary PSH (together referred to as T/Q-PSH). Given recent experience in Europe, grid operators in the United States and elsewhere are increasingly focusing their attention on T/Q-PSH as a proven, financeable technology that can offer utility-scale, long-duration, fast-acting energy storage capabilities and grid services. T/Q-PSH differs from conventional PSH in that it can provide fast-response ancillary services during both generating and pumping operations. This capability together with fast mode switching times are key attributes that make T/Q-PSH technologies attractive for managing and stabilizing electricity systems with high amounts of variable renewable energy.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enabling Power System Transformation Globally: A System Operator Research Agenda for Bulk Power System Issues

The primary objective of a power system is to safely provide reliable energy services to society at an affordable cost. In many countries, this objective has been supplemented by another: meeting the energy demand with sustainable resources, which has culminated in the energy transition to low-carbon and zero-carbon energy systems. This transition, occurring rapidly around the world, is characterized by the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE), inverter-based resources (IBRs), and distributed energy resources (DERs).

costs↗
DOE OSTI2020

Insights into Na + Diffusion in Silicon Modules under Operating Conditions: Measuring Low Concentrations by D-SIMS

Sodium induced shunting under an electric field is a challenging reliability issue in crystalline Si solar modules. The source of this Potential-Induced Degradation of the Shunting type (PID-s) is well understood and its influence on power loss has been intensively studied based on phenomenological models on cell or module level relating the experimental power-loss to stressing parameters (time, temperature, voltage). However, little is known about the Na ion migration kinetics, responsible for PID on a microscopic level, and its quantitative relation to the efficiency degradation. In this paper we present our investigations of sodium ion migration in Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) and silicon through Dynamic Secondary Ion Mass Spectroscopy (D-SIMS). Each sample was annealed at field relevant temperatures from 60-90 °C to address typical migration mechanisms of common PV installations. Analysis of the SIMS migration profiles revealed a diffusivity constant D 0,EVA = 0.09 ± 0.14 cm 2 /s and an activation energy E A,EVA = 0.85 ± .04 eV for Na in EVA and diffusivities higher than extrapolated literature values in silicon (D 0,Si = (3.03 ± 2.42)x10 -5 cm 2 /s, and E A,Si = 0.98 ± 0.02 eV). The new insight will be included in a drift-diffusion based degradation model accounting for the partition coefficient across all relevant interfaces. This model can assist in predicting PID-failure in the field based on the given model stack and the diffusion of Na + through each material. Furthermore, this tool can be used for process optimization as well as material selection significantly reducing the cost and time to validate a technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensuring Safe, Effective, and Reliable Use of Artificial Intelligence-Based Applications for Nuclear Electricity Generation through a Systems Approach

There is a significant potential to reduce operating and maintenance cost at nuclear power plants using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). For instance, AI/ML has the potential to significant improve work management processes, condition reporting, and plant surveillance activities. However, the nuclear industry has been slow in adopting AI/ML due to several multifaceted barriers discussed in this paper. This work presents such multidisciplinary approach intended to 1) accelerate industry adoption of AI/ML-based applications at nuclear power plants and 2) ensure their safe, reliable, and effective use. This approach is discussed further in this work and will be used to address overarching challenges associated with AI deployment at scale to provide industry guidance that support accelerated adoption of AI/ML technologies throughout the industry.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework to Integrate Human Reliability Data Obtained from Different Sources Based on the Complexity Scores of Proceduralized Tasks

For many decades, PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) or PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) techniques have been used to enhance the operational safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on the consideration of potential hazards that could result in an unexpected consequence. As human error is one of the potential hazards, diverse human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have been proposed to provide a systematic way to estimate the likelihood of human errors (i.e., human error probability, HEP) in specific task contexts. Accordingly, it is evident that the quality of HRA results strongly depends on the credibility of HEP estimations. This implies that, in terms of enhancing this credibility, the collection of raw information (HRA data) that is helpful for understating when and why human errors occur is a crucial issue. In order to address this issue, in this study, the feasibility of a framework to integrate HRA data obtained from different sources is investigated based on the complexity of proceduralized tasks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating power grid model hydropower feasibility with a river operations model

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate dispatch of generators across a large power grid and are used widely by planners to study the reliability of electricity supply. As energy systems transition away from the thermoelectric technologies that have traditionally balanced electricity supply and demand, hydropower and its representation in PCMs is of increasing importance. A limitation of PCMs applied to continental power grids with diverse generation portfolios is that hydropower generation is simulated without full consideration of complex river dynamics, leading to possible misrepresentation of grid flexibility and performance. In addition, data used in PCMs may reflect outdated operating policies. In this paper we propose a hydropower generation feasibility test for PCMs. The approach uses a detailed hydropower model to determine whether the hourly hydropower schedule from a PCM with simplified monthly parameterization can be attained after accounting for realistic river dynamics and operating policies, such as spill requirements and general water movement and balance through a cascade reservoir system. We perform this hydropower generation test for the ‘Big 10’ hydropower system on the Columbia River (part of the Western Interconnect of the United States), revealing 9% overestimation of available hydropower generation in a PCM solution in an average hydrologic year. Our evaluation provides insight on the cost and opportunities for better representing hydropower in PCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Temporal Convolutional Network Using Empirical Mode Decomposition to Detect Faults in Grid Connected Systems

Grid-connected power electronic systems require timely and reliable fault detection to prevent equipment damage and reduce downtime. This paper presents a forecasting-based anomaly detection pipeline that decomposes voltage and current measurements into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), then trains a causal temporal convolutional network (TCN) on normal-operation IMF data to predict short-horizon future dynamics. Deviations between forecasts and observations are summarized as reliability-weighted residual scores and thresholded per sensor using robust statistics with temporal persistence constraints to suppress false positives. To reduce runtime, EMD is performed on downsampled signals for detection, while raw-rate EMD is applied only within a short region of interest for high-frequency interpretability near detected events. Results on a simulated grid-connected converter system demonstrate that IMF-domain forecasting improves anomaly separability relative to raw-signal forecasting and provides interpretable evidence of faults across decomposition channels.

Sutton, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000078885935)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Operations and Maintenance for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Indian Country

This fact sheet provides an overview of operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, responsibilities, and contracts to help ensure EV charging infrastructure remains functional and reliable in Indian Country. O&M planning is important for Tribes to consider at the beginning of EV charging infrastructure projects to help ensure charger uptime and longevity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reproducibility and Replication of Experimental Particle Physics Results

Recently, much attention has been focused on the replicability of scientific results, causing scientists, statisticians, and journal editors to examine closely their methodologies and publishing criteria. Experimental particle physicists have been aware of the precursors of non-replicable research for many decades and have many safeguards to ensure that the published results are as reliable as possible. The experiments require large investments of time and effort to design, construct, and operate. Large collaborations produce and check the results, and many papers are signed by more than three thousand authors. This paper gives an introduction to what experimental particle physics is and to some of the tools that are used to analyze the data. It describes the procedures used to ensure that results can be computationally reproduced, both by collaborators and by non-collaborators. It describes the status of publicly available data sets and analysis tools that aid in reproduction and recasting of experimental results. It also describes methods particle physicists use to maximize the reliability of the results, which increases the probability that they can be replicated by other collaborations or even the same collaborations with more data and new personnel. Examples of results that were later found to be false are given, both with failed replication attempts and one with alarmingly successful replications. While some of the characteristics of particle physics experiments are unique, many of the procedures and techniques can be and are used in other fields.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Natural Hazard Forecast Alert Grid Risk System

Weather events cause most power outages. Often, we even get notifications on our phones to take cover or be prepared for an imminent event. If electric grid utilities had a similar warning that also included probable scenarios and the equipment involved, they could prepare and minimize the effects. Idaho National Laboratory had a project with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response program to develop a grid alert application that receives messages from the existing emergency alert system, filters and determines components possibly affected by the emergency event, calculates probable scenarios using MASTERRI (Modeling And Simulation for Targeted Reliability and Resilience Improvement). For high-risk events, the application can then send alert links to subscribed electric distribution utility operations staff to allow them to see and evaluate the scenarios and the impact in a web based interactive map tool. This proof of concept application used data from utilities and organizations, such as the international regulatory body North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which have complied historical failure data of elements that comprise the U.S. electric grid. Nominal failure rates are obtained from this data. To make this tool possible, estimated failure rates were calculated for different component types given the alert type, severity, and location. Historic weather-related grid element failures were correlated with historic weather events from the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System. These correlated events and failures are used along with Bayesian updates from the historical norms to provide a modified failure rate for grid elements in the alert areas and calculate probable scenarios. Working with an industry collaborator, actual grid models and data were used for demonstration cases. This report outlines the work performed for this project.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗