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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Comments on the Rotational State and Non-Gravitational Forces of Comet 46/WIRTANEN

We apply our experience of modeling the rotational state and non-gravitational forces of comet 1 P/Halley and other comets to comet 46P/Wirtanen. While the paucity of physical data on 46P/Wirtanen makes this process somewhat speculative, this comet's place as target for the important Rosetta mission gives significance to such a study. Our arguments are based on the summary of observational data provided by Jorda and Rickman (1995) and a comparative study of the behavior of other periodic comets. We find 46P/Wirtanen to have a level of surface activity relative to its mass that is dynamically more akin to that found in comet 1 P/Halley than in a typical periodic comet. We show through an illustrative numerical example that this apparent fact should likely lead to an excited spin state for this comet and that significant changes in the spin period could occur in a single pass through perihelion. We argue that the available observations are not sufficient to substantiate the claim of Jorda and Rickman (1995) that the nucleus is undergoing retrograde rotation and it is possible that the rotation is either prograde as well as retrograde. The substantial requirements that must be placed on any future observing program necessary to determine the precise rotational state are outlined. We advocate an extended (approx. two month) southern hemisphere observing campaign to determine the nuclear rotational state in 1996 if possible before activity turns on.

Samarasinha, Nalin H.↗

Daily water stable isotopes, transpiration, and matrix potential data for an aspen and engelmann stand in the East River Watershed (version 2)

We provide daily stable isotope (2H & 18O) ratios in soil water and xylem (plant stem) water, as well as the sap flow (transpiration) and the soil's matric potential at a forested site near Gothic, Colorado, in the East River catchment. We measured the stable isotopic composition of the transpiration and the daily transpiration flux sum of three aspen and three engelmann spruce. In both forest stands, we installed a soil profile and measured the soil matric potential at 15, 30, and 60 cm depth as well as the stable isotopes of soil pore water at 5, 10, 30, 60, and 90 cm depths. All isotope measurements were done in situ via vapor probes connected to a cavity ring down spectrometer (Picarro L1240i).We further report the daily meteorological data observed at billy barr near our study site. We also provide for each tree the relative share of root water uptake derived from the isotope measurements via a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR).The daily data is provided as a time series in "Iso_MP_Sap_DataDaily_ESSDiveUpload.csv" and the units are provided in "dd.csv"; the location of the instrumented trees and soil profiles are given as latitude and longitude coordinates saved as CSV and KMZ files; and a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata.The data was gathered to investigate the short-term changes of the water sources (i.e., variation of root water uptake from different soil depths) of the studied subalpine trees.Update 07/16/2025: The relative and absolute plant water uptake depths were grouped to ensure that the MixSIAR model was applied with endmembers that differed in their d2H value by at least 3 permill and at least 1 permill for d18O. Whenever the difference between observed d2H values for two or more probes at neighboring depths was less than 3 permill, we used the average value for the source water endmember. For days at which probes that were not next to each other measurements did not differ at least 3 permill, the average of all probes between these two depths was used as the water source endmember representing the depth range between these two probes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for heavy neutrinos and third-generation leptoquarks in hadronic states of two τ leptons and two jets in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV

A search for new particles has been conducted using events with two high transverse momentum $\tau$ leptons that decay hadronically and at least two energetic jets. The analysis is performed using data from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. The observed data are consistent with standard model expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of two physics models. The first model involves right-handed charged bosons, W$_\mathrm{R}$, that decay to heavy right-handed Majorana neutrinos, N$_\ell$ $(\ell= $e, $\mu,\tau)$, arising in a left-right symmetric extension of the standard model. The model considers that N$_\mathrm{e}$ and N$_\mu$ are too heavy to be detected at the LHC. Assuming that the N$_\tau$ mass is half of the W$_\mathrm{R}$ mass, masses of the W$_\mathrm{R}$ boson below 3.50 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. Exclusion limits are also presented considering different scenarios for the mass ratio between N$_\tau$ and W$_\mathrm{R}$, as a function of W$_\mathrm{R}$ mass. In the second model, pair production of third-generation scalar leptoquarks that decay into $\tau\tau$bb is considered, resulting in an observed exclusion region with leptoquark masses below 1.02 TeV, assuming a 100% branching fraction for the leptoquark decay to a $\tau$ lepton and a bottom quark. These results represent the most stringent limits to date on these models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling Atmospheric CO2 Processes to Constrain the Missing Sink

We report on a NASA supported modeling effort to reduce uncertainty in carbon cycle processes that create the so-called missing sink of atmospheric CO2. Our overall objective is to improve characterization of CO2 source/sink processes globally with improved formulations for atmospheric transport, terrestrial uptake and release, biomass and fossil fuel burning, and observational data analysis. The motivation for this study follows from the perspective that progress in determining CO2 sources and sinks beyond the current state of the art will rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. The major components of this effort are: 1) Continued development of the chemistry and transport model using analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, with comparison to real time data in both forward and inverse modes; 2) An advanced biosphere model, constrained by remote sensing data, coupled to the global transport model to produce distributions of CO2 fluxes and concentrations that are consistent with actual meteorological variability; 3) Improved remote sensing estimates for biomass burning emission fluxes to better characterize interannual variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget and to better constrain the land use change source; 4) Evaluating the impact of temporally resolved fossil fuel emission distributions on atmospheric CO2 gradients and variability. 5) Testing the impact of existing and planned remote sensing data sources (e.g., AIRS, MODIS, OCO) on inference of CO2 sources and sinks, and use the model to help establish measurement requirements for future remote sensing instruments. The results will help to prepare for the use of OCO and other satellite data in a multi-disciplinary carbon data assimilation system for analysis and prediction of carbon cycle changes and carbodclimate interactions.

Kawa, S. R.↗

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements, rather than requiring an unexpected change in the physical behavior of the Sun.

DeLand, Matthew, T.↗

Determining Planetary Boundary Layer Height by Micro-pulse Lidar with Validation by UAV Measurements

Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is often used to characterize the structure of the lower atmosphere. Aerosol lidar, a ground-based remote sensing method, provides the vertical distribution of aerosol at a high temporal resolution observation data, from which, the PBL structure and the position of the PBL top can be comprehensively studied. PBLH determination with lidar data depends primarily on the characteristic turbulent motions in the atmosphere and the geophysical location. However, lidar determination of PBLH over densely populated subtropical locations has rarely been discussed; thus, developing retrieval techniques suitable to these areas is necessary. In this study, four PBLH determination methods (Gradient, δ–threshold, Haar wavelet transform, and hybrid image processing) are applied to estimate the PBLH from lidar observations over an urban area in East Asia, and one—the Gradient method—relied on potential temperature measurements from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights to validate our results. Our results indicate that a combination of the gradient method and δ-threshold method can provide better results, in terms of diurnal pattern, than using either method individually. Furthermore, the Haar wavelet and the Hybrid image processing can detect the PBL development comparably well, but both methods are dependent on their initial conditions and optimized algorithm settings. In addition, the accompanying UAV observations are conclusively shown to have a high degree of efficacy for validating the lidar data. This research highlights that a combination of PBLH determination methods can better describe the PBLH evolution throughout a day in some cases, while in others less common determination methods are proving useful, and a suite of retrieval methods should still be explored for precisely mapping the PBL in densely populated subtropical areas.

Yueh-Chen Wang↗

Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for dynamic downscaling of 2.5 degree National Centers for Environmental Prediction-U.S. Department of Energy Reanalysis II (NCEP-R2) data for 1980-2010 at 12 km resolution over most of North America. The model's performance for surface air temperature and precipitation is evaluated by comparison with high-resolution observational data sets. The model's ability to add value is investigated by comparison with NCEP-R2 data and a 50 km regional climate simulation. The causes for major model bias are studied through additional sensitivity experiments with various model setup/integration approaches and physics representations. The WRF captures the main features of the spatial patterns and annual cycles of air temperature and precipitation over most of the contiguous United States. However, simulated air temperatures over the south central region and precipitation over the Great Plains and the Southwest have significant biases. Allowing longer spin-up time, reducing the nudging strength, or replacing the WRF Single-Moment 6-class microphysics with Morrison microphysics reduces the bias over some subregions. However, replacing the Grell-Devenyi cumulus parameterization with Kain-Fritsch shows no improvement. The 12 km simulation does add value above the NCEP-R2 data and the 50 km simulation over mountainous and coastal zones.

Dynamical Downscaling↗

Inelastic Neutron Scattering Study of Magnetic Exchange Pathways in MnS

We report an investigation of the magnetic structure and magnetic exchange pathways in MnS via neutron scattering methods, aided by density functional theory (DFT) modeling. The material has been confirmed to undergo antiferromagnetic (AFM) ordering at 152 K, with the magnetic structure representing AFM stacking of ferromagnetic (FM) (111) planes of Mn magnetic moments. Correspondingly, the magnetic structure is described by a propagation vector k = (1/2, 1/2, 1/2), with the volume of the magnetic unit cell being 8 times larger than the volume of the nuclear unit cell. Analysis of inelastic neutron scattering (INS) data collected on a powder sample of MnS revealed that the next-nearest-neighbor magnetic exchange constant (J 2 ) exceeds the nearest-neighbor exchange constant (J 1 ) by more than 3 times, while in the case of MnO, which exhibits the same nuclear and magnetic structures as MnS, the J 2 /J 1 ratio was reported to be below 1.5. Although for MnO the signs of both J 1 and J 2 indicated AFM exchange interactions, machine-learning INS data analysis in combination with DFT calculations suggests that the INS data collected on MnS are best described with J 1 < 0 and J 2 > 0, corresponding to FM and AFM exchange couplings, respectively. To achieve a satisfactory fit to the experimentally observed data, the Hamiltonian used to model the INS spectra also included the next-next-nearest-neighbor magnetic exchange constant (J 3 ). The best-fit model has been obtained with the values of the exchange constants J 1 = -0.27 meV, J 2 = 1.05 meV, and J 3 = -0.19 meV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub-Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil-atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub-Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The chemical composition of the sun from helioseismic and solar neutrino data

We perform a quantitative analysis of the solar composition problem by using a statistical approach that allows us to combine the information provided by helioseismic and solar neutrino data in an effective way. We include in our analysis the helioseismic determinations of the surface helium abundance and of the depth of the convective envelope, the measurements of the {sup 7}Be and {sup 8}B neutrino fluxes, and the sound speed profile inferred from helioseismic frequencies. We provide all the ingredients to describe how these quantities depend on the solar surface composition, different from the initial and internal composition due to the effects of diffusion and nuclear reactions, and to evaluate the (correlated) uncertainties in solar model predictions. We include error sources that are not traditionally considered such as those from inversion of helioseismic data. We, then, apply the proposed approach to infer the chemical composition of the Sun. Our result is that the opacity profile of the Sun is well constrained by the solar observational properties. In the context of a two-parameter analysis in which elements are grouped as volatiles (i.e., C, N, O, and Ne) and refractories (i.e., Mg, Si, S, and Fe), the optimal surface composition is found by increasing the abundance of volatiles by (45 ± 4)% and that of refractories by (19 ± 3)% with respect to the values provided by Asplund et al. (2009, ARA and A, 47, 481). This corresponds to the abundances ε{sub O} = 8.85 ± 0.01 and ε{sub Fe} = 7.52 ± 0.01, which are consistent at the ∼1σ level with those provided by Grevesse and Sauval (1998, SSRv, 85, 161). As an additional result of our analysis, we show that the best fit to the observational data is obtained with values of input parameters of the standard solar models (radiative opacities, gravitational settling rate, and the astrophysical factors S {sub 34} and S {sub 17}) that differ at the ∼1σ level from those presently adopted.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Microlensing of x-ray pulsars: A method to detect primordial black hole dark matter

Primordial black holes (PBHs) with a mass from 10 -16 to 10 -11 M ⊙ may comprise 100% of dark matter. Due to a combination of wave and finite source size effects, the traditional microlensing of stars does not probe this mass range. Here, we point out that x-ray pulsars with higher photon energies and smaller source sizes are good candidate sources for microlensing for this mass window. Among the existing x-ray pulsars, the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) X-1 source is found to be the best candidate because of its apparent brightness and long distance from Earth. We have analyzed the existing observation data of SMC X-1 by the RXTE telescope (around 10 days) and found that PBH as 100% of dark matter is close to but not yet excluded. Lastly, future longer observation of this source by x-ray telescopes with larger effective areas such as AstroSat, Athena, Lynx, and eXTP can potentially close the last mass window where PBHs can make up all of dark matter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Optimal test selection for prediction uncertainty reduction

Economic factors and experimental limitations often lead to sparse and/or imprecise data used for the calibration and validation of computational models. This paper addresses resource allocation for calibration and validation experiments, in order to maximize their effectiveness within given resource constraints. When observation data are used for model calibration, the quality of the inferred parameter descriptions is directly affected by the quality and quantity of the data. This paper characterizes parameter uncertainty within a probabilistic framework, which enables the uncertainty to be systematically reduced with additional data. The validation assessment is also uncertain in the presence of sparse and imprecise data; therefore, this paper proposes an approach for quantifying the resulting validation uncertainty. Since calibration and validation uncertainty affect the prediction of interest, the proposed framework explores the decision of cost versus importance of data in terms of the impact on the prediction uncertainty. Often, calibration and validation tests may be performed for different input scenarios, and this paper shows how the calibration and validation results from different conditions may be integrated into the prediction. Then, a constrained discrete optimization formulation that selects the number of tests of each type (calibration or validation at given input conditions) is proposed. Furthermore, the proposed test selection methodology is demonstrated on a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) example.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Heat Transfer Problems

Abstract Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have gained popularity across different engineering fields due to their effectiveness in solving realistic problems with noisy data and often partially missing physics. In PINNs, automatic differentiation is leveraged to evaluate differential operators without discretization errors, and a multitask learning problem is defined in order to simultaneously fit observed data while respecting the underlying governing laws of physics. Here, we present applications of PINNs to various prototype heat transfer problems, targeting in particular realistic conditions not readily tackled with traditional computational methods. To this end, we first consider forced and mixed convection with unknown thermal boundary conditions on the heated surfaces and aim to obtain the temperature and velocity fields everywhere in the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse temperature measurements. We also consider the prototype Stefan problem for two-phase flow, aiming to infer the moving interface, the velocity and temperature fields everywhere as well as the different conductivities of a solid and a liquid phase, given a few temperature measurements inside the domain. Finally, we present some realistic industrial applications related to power electronics to highlight the practicality of PINNs as well as the effective use of neural networks in solving general heat transfer problems of industrial complexity. Taken together, the results presented herein demonstrate that PINNs not only can solve ill-posed problems, which are beyond the reach of traditional computational methods, but they can also bridge the gap between computational and experimental heat transfer.

Engineering↗

Financial Exposure After a Sealed-Source Release: Insurance Limits, Federal Cost Pathways, and Implications for Gamma Irradiator Substitution

This report assesses whether private insurance and existing federal authorities would likely provide meaningful financial protection to private operators of self-shielded gamma irradiators after a major sealed-source release. It does not answer this question quantitatively because publicly observable data on premiums, limits, uptake, and claims outcomes for this risk class appear sparse. Instead, it uses a qualitative structural analysis based on prior literature, review of relevant federal authorities, limited observable insurance-market evidence, expert outreach, and historical analogs. The analysis finds that available public and private mechanisms do not combine into a clear, dependable, or readily verifiable compensation structure for ordinary private sealed-source operators. Institutions therefore should not assume that either insurance or government response will make them financially whole after a severe incident. Source reduction and replacement remain more dependable than post-event financial mechanisms for reducing institutional exposure and broader radiological risk.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Dynamical effects on the global distribution of thermospheric atomic oxygen

Results are presented of calculations pertaining to the effects of global-scale dynamical processes on the coupled seasonal and diurnal variations of atomic oxygen in the altitude range 90-500 km. The calculations are based on a three-dimensional numerical model of thermospheric dynamics which treats the three gases N2, O2, and O simultaneously, coupled together by collisional processes. The model is described, and the results of the calculations under both equinox and solstice conditions and a comparison with observational data are discussed. It is shown that none of these gases can be considered to be in hydrostatic equilibrium below about 200 km, and that global-scale winds cause the observed winter enhancement of atomic oxygen.

Straus, J. M.↗

Optical observations of interstellar molecules

Recent observational data are summarized on molecular species in diffuse interstellar clouds, and a comprehensive list of all species detected or sought is included. The discussion is focussed on the use of molecular observations to determine physical conditions in clouds, and on important species which provide constraints on cloud chemistry models. Directions for new research are suggested, including intensive work on the unidentified diffuse bands, which may have a molecular origin.

Snow, T. P., Jr.↗

Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) for the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO)

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) is expected to provide new and better observational data on bursts to test current and future models of burst sources. These data will include: (1) the celestial distribution of hundreds of burst sources over the life of the mission, (2) burst locations within several degrees, within 2 days after their occurrence, (3) observations of weaker bursts and better observations of short timescale fluctuations and spectral variations, (4) observations by a single experiment over a much larger energy range than previously available, and (5) more sensitive measurements of the spectral features which have been observed in many bursts. This paper briefly describes the GRO mission, the BATSE instrumentation and the burst observational capabilities.

Fishman, G. J.↗

Satellite radiation observations and climate theory

The representative applications of satellite observations of the earth radiation budget in climate studies are discussed. Consideration is given to the use of satellite observational data for validating numerical estimates of the sensitivity of longwave radiation, surface temperature, and cloud amount to changes in the radiation budget. Particular emphasis is given to the application of satellite observations to the validation of temperature estimates obtained from the NOAA Seasonal Hemispheric Zonal Average Model (SZHAM).

Ohring, G.↗