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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Management systems research study

The development of a Monte Carlo simulation of procurement activities at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. Data cover: simulation of the procurement cycle, construction of a performance evaluation model, examination of employee development, procedures and review of evaluation criteria for divisional and individual performance evaluation. Determination of the influences and apparent impact of contract type and structure and development of a management control system for planning and controlling manpower requirements.

Bruno, A. V.↗

A shock-layer theory based on thirteen-moment equations and DSMC calculations of rarefied hypersonic flows

Grad's thirteen-moment equations are applied to the flow behind a bow shock under the formalism of a thin shock layer. Comparison of this version of the theory with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo calculations of flows about a flat plate at finite attack angle has lent support to the approach as a useful extension of the continuum model for studying translational nonequilibrium in the shock layer. This paper reassesses the physical basis and limitations of the development with additional calculations and comparisons. The streamline correlation principle, which allows transformation of the 13-moment based system to one based on the Navier-Stokes equations, is extended to a three-dimensional formulation. The development yields a strip theory for planar lifting surfaces at finite incidences. Examples reveal that the lift-to-drag ratio is little influenced by planform geometry and varies with altitudes according to a 'bridging function' determined by correlated two-dimensional calculations.

Cheng, H. K.↗

Estimation of penetration of forest canopies by Interferometric SAR measurements

In contrast to traditional Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), an Interferometric SAR (INSAR) yields two additional measurements: the phase difference and the correlation between the two interferometric channels. The phase difference has been used to estimate topographic height. For homogeneous surfaces, the correlation depends on the system signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio, the interferometer parameters, and the local slope. In the presence of volume scattering, such as that encountered in vegetation canopies, the correlation between the two channels is also dependent on the degree of penetration of the radiation into the scattering medium. In this paper, we propose a method for removing system and slope effects in order to obtain the decorrelation due to penetration alone. The sensitivities and accuracy of the proposed method are determined by Monte Carlo experiments, and we show that the proposed technique has sufficient sensitivity to provide penetration measurements for airborne SAR systems. Next, we provide a theoretical model to estimate the degree of penetration in a way which is independent of the details of the scattering medium. We also present a model for the correlation from non-homogeneous layers. We assess the sensitivity of the proposed inversion technique to these inhomogeneous situations. Finally, we present a comparison of the interferometric results against in situ data obtained by an airborne laser profilometer which provides a direct measurement of tree height and an estimate of the vegetation density profile in the forested areas around Mt. Adams, WA.

Rodriguez, Ernesto↗

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness - Part 1

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

Warner, James E.↗

Conserving approximations for strongly correlated electron systems - Bethe-Salpeter equation and dynamics for the two-dimensional Hubbard model

A semianalytical approach is described for strongly correlated electronic systems which satisfies microscopic conservation laws, treats strong frequency and momentum dependences, and provides information on both static and dynamic properties. This approach may be used to treat large systems and temperatures lower than those currently accessible to finite-temperature quantum Monte Carlo techniques. Examples of such systems include heavy-electron compounds, organic Bechegaard salts, bis-(ethylenedithiolo)-TTF superconductors, and the oxide superconductors. The technique is based on the derivation and self-consistent solution of infinite-order conserving approximations. The technique is used to derive a low-temperature phase diagram and dynamic correlation functions for the two-dimensional Hubbard lattice model.

Bickers, N. E.↗

Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate Likelihood of Direct Lightning Strikes

A software tool has been designed to quantify the lightning exposure at launch sites of the stack at the pads under different configurations. In order to predict lightning strikes to generic structures, this model uses leaders whose origins (in the x-y plane) are obtained from a 2D random, normal distribution.

Mata, Carlos↗

Ab-Initio Study of Stacking Fault Segregation Behavior in Ni-based Superalloys at High Temperatures

Ni-based superalloys demonstrate extraordinary creep properties compared to traditional metallic systems due to the formation of L12 (γ’) precipitates. Despite experimental evidence of alloying element segregation to the stacking faults, prior ab-initio efforts indicated repulsion of Nb from superlattice intrinsic stacking faults (SISFs) . Due to the importance of this element in key strengthening mechanisms, we developed a new technique to account for multi-component segregation behavior at temperature combining ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations. Using this technique, we replicated experimentally observed segregation behavior of Nb, Co, and Ti to the SISF in L12 (Figure 1). Furthermore, we investigated the co-segregation behaviors of individual pairs of alloying elements to determine the interaction effects which lead to this segregation behavior in the full alloy system. By simulating the reduced-chemistry models using our approach, we reconciled previous ab-initio calculations demonstrating repulsion of Nb from the SISF and the experimentally observed segregation behavior.

Molecular Dynamics↗

Monte Carlo turbulence simulation using rational approximations to von Karman spectra

Turbulence simulation is computationally much simpler using rational spectra, but turbulence falls off as f exp -5/3 in frequency ranges of interest to aircraft response and as predicted by von Karman's model. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra should satisfy three requirements: (1) the rational spectra should provide a good approximation to the von Karman spectra in the frequency range of interest; (2) for stability, the resulting rational transfer function should have all its poles in the left half-plane; and (3) at high frequencies, the rational spectra must fall off as an integer power of frequency, and since the -2 power is closest to the -5/3 power, the rational approximation should roll off as the -2 power at high frequencies. Rational approximations to von Karman spectra that satisfy these three criteria are presented, along with spectra from simulated turbulence. Agreement between the spectra of the simulated turbulence and von Karman spectra is excellent.

Campbell, C. W.↗

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗

Theory of fluctuations of extended air showers

The Monte Carlo method was used to calculate the probability distribution functions of shower characteristics for primary protons at sea level. The calculation was based on the following model of the elementary event: the interaction paths are 90 g/sq cm for nucleons and 120 g/sq cm for pions. The nonelasticity coefficient for nucleons is uniformly distributed between 0.1 and 0.9, and for pions it is equal to 1. Isobaric pions are taken into account. The spectra of secondary particles were determined using Cocconi's approximation formula. The calculation for the nuclei was carried out on the assumption of a breakup of the nucleus into component nucleons. The mean number of particles and the variances of the distributions for electrons when the number of muons was fixed, and for muons when the number of electrons was fixed, were calculated.

Dedenko, L. G.↗

On intracluster Faraday rotation. II - Statistical analysis

The comparison of a reliable sample of radio source Faraday rotation measurements seen through rich clusters of galaxies, with sources seen through the outer parts of clusters and therefore having little intracluster Faraday rotation, indicates that the distribution of rotation in the former population is broadened, but only at the 80% level of statistical confidence. Employing a physical model for the intracluster medium in which the square root of magnetic field strength/turbulent cell per gas core radius number ratio equals approximately 0.07 microgauss, a Monte Carlo simulation is able to reproduce the observed broadening. An upper-limit analysis figure of less than 0.20 microgauss for the field strength/turbulent cell ratio, combined with lower limits on field strength imposed by limitations on the Compton-scattered flux, shows that intracluster magnetic fields must be tangled on scales greater than about 20 kpc.

Lawler, J. M.↗

Aeroassist flight experiment aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics

The problem is to determine the transitional flow aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics, including the base flow characteristics, of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE). The justification for the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) Application stems from MSFC's system integration responsibility for the AFE. To insure that the AFE objectives are met, MSFC must understand the limitations and uncertainties of the design data. Perhaps the only method capable of handling the complex physics of the rarefied high energy AFE trajectory is Bird's Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique. The 3-D code used in this analysis is applicable only to the AFE geometry. It uses the Variable Hard Sphere (VHS) collision model and five specie chemistry model available from Langley Research Center. The code is benchmarked against the AFE flight data and used as an Aeroassisted Space Transfer Vehicle (ASTV) design tool. The code is being used to understand the AFE flow field and verify or modify existing design data. Continued application to lower altitudes is testing the capability of the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation Facility (NASF) to handle 3-D DSMC and its practicality as an ASTV/AFE design tool.

Brewer, Edwin B.↗

A study of hydrogen diffusion flames using PDF turbulence model

The application of probability density function (pdf) turbulence models is addressed in this work. For the purpose of accurate prediction of turbulent combustion, an algorithm that combines a conventional CFD flow solver with the Monte Carlo simulation of the pdf evolution equation has been developed. The algorithm has been validated using experimental data for a heated turbulent plane jet. The study of H2-F2 diffusion flames has been carried out using this algorithm. Numerical results compared favorably with experimental data. The computuations show that the flame center shifts as the equivalence ratio changes, and that for the same equivalence ratio, similarity solutions for flames exist.

Hsu, Andrew T.↗

A study of hydrogen diffusion flames using PDF turbulence model

The application of probability density function (pdf) turbulence models is addressed. For the purpose of accurate prediction of turbulent combustion, an algorithm that combines a conventional computational fluid dynamic (CFD) flow solver with the Monte Carlo simulation of the pdf evolution equation was developed. The algorithm was validated using experimental data for a heated turbulent plane jet. The study of H2-F2 diffusion flames was carried out using this algorithm. Numerical results compared favorably with experimental data. The computations show that the flame center shifts as the equivalence ratio changes, and that for the same equivalence ratio, similarity solutions for flames exist.

Hsu, Andrew T.↗

A study of electron transfer using a three-level system coupled to an ohmic bath

Electron transfer is studied using a multi-level system coupled to a bosonic bath. Two body correlation functions are obtained using both exact enumeration of spin paths and Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that the phase boundary for the coherent-incoherent transition lies at a smaller friction in the asymmetric two-level model than in the symmetric two-level model. A similar coherent-incoherent transition is observed for three-level system.

Takasu, Masako↗

Probabilistic Failure Assessment For Fatigue

Probabilistic Failure Assessment for Fatigue (PFAFAT) package of software utilizing probabilistic failure-assessment (PFA) methodology to model high- and low-cycle-fatigue modes of failure of structural components. Consists of nine programs. Three programs perform probabilistic fatigue analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Other six used for generating random processes, characterizing fatigue-life data pertaining to materials, and processing outputs of computational simulations. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Moore, Nicholas↗

Fissioning Plasma Core Reactor

Institute for Scientific Research, Inc. (ISR) research program consist of: 1.Study core physics by adapting existing codes: MCNP4C - Monte Carlo code; COMBINE/VENTURE - diffusion theory; SCALE4 - Monte Carlo, with many utility codes. 2. Determine feasibility and study major design parameters: fuel selection, temperature and reflector sizing. 3. Study reactor kinetics: develop QCALC1 to model point kinetics; study dynamic behavior of the power release.

Albright, Dennis↗