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Modeling and Simulation Capability Development Plan

This report provides an assessment of the current status of the modelling and simulation capability for the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES). The current capabilities are separated in: • Creation of the system boundary condition. More in detail this refer to the capability to create either demand, renewable supply, price profiles etc.. • Creation of a numerical representation of the physical model of a N-R HES system • Derivation, from the actual performance of the physical system, the cash flow to perform the economical assessment • Optimization of N-R HES configuration and dispatch Those capabilities are the ones which enable the workflow summarize in Figure 1below.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model – ESM – simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling and retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multilayer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5∘ resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1; Wang and Mao, 2021) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations (mean bias from −0.044 to 0.033 m3 m−3, root mean square errors from 0.076 to 0.104 m3 m−3, Pearson correlations from 0.35 to 0.67) and multiple gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Three of the new SM products, which were produced by applying any of the three merging methods to the source datasets excluding the ESMs, had lower bias and root mean square errors and higher correlations than the ESM-dependent merged products. The ESM-independent products also showed a better ability to capture historical large-scale drought events than the ESM-dependent products. The merged products generally showed reasonable temporal homogeneity and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors, except that the ESM-dependent products underestimated the low-frequency temporal variability in SM and overestimated the high-frequency variability for the 50–100 cm depth. Based on these evaluation results, the three ESM-independent products were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the ESM-dependent ones. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An Overview of the Waste-to-Energy System Simulation (WESyS) Model

The leveraging of waste streams for energy and chemical production could add revenue to waste disposal operations, and it presents opportunities for addressing a variety of economic and environmental objectives at the local, state, and national levels. The Waste-to-Energy System Simulation (WESyS) model is a system dynamics model that was created to simulate the development of the U.S. waste-to-energy industry over time. For each of the three primary waste resources modeled (landfills, concentrated animal feeding operations, and publicly owned treatment works), WESyS simulates technically feasible scenarios for use of the waste, including direct conversion to fuels, and anaerobic digestion followed by flaring, electricity generation, combined heat and power, cleanup and compression to compressed natural gas, and cleanup and injection into an existing pipeline. The model allows users to explore numerous plausible future scenarios for the development of the U.S. waste-to-energy industry. This report provides an overview of the WESyS model and documents the key assumptions, equations, and data sources used to create the model.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Geologic Modeling and Simulation Report for the Aquistore Project

The Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership, through the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), is collaborating with the Petroleum Technology Research Centre (PTRC) on site characterization; modeling and simulation; risk assessment; public outreach; and monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) activities for the Aquistore project. The Aquistore project is a carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project situated near the town of Estevan, Saskatchewan, Canada, and the U.S.–Canada border. This project is managed by PTRC and will serve as buffer storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the SaskPower Boundary Dam CCUS project, the world’s first commercial-scale postcombustion CCUS project from a coal-fired electric generating facility. To date, an injection well and an observation research well (~500 ft apart) have been drilled and completed at the Aquistore site, with injection anticipated to begin in 2014. Using a combination of site characterization data provided by PTRC and independently acquired information, the PCOR Partnership has constructed a static geologic model to assess the potential storage capacity of the Aquistore site and provide the foundation for dynamic simulation. The geologic model and the results of the predictive simulations will be used in the risk assessment process to help define an overall monitoring plan for the project and to assure stakeholders that the injected CO 2 will remain safely stored at the Aquistore site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of ENSO and NAO Initial Conditions and Anomalies on the Modeled Response to Pinatubo-Sized Volcanic Forcing

Strong, strato-volcanic eruptions are a substantial, intermittent source of natural climate variability. Initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also naturally impact climate on interannual timescales. We examine how initial conditions of ENSO and NAO contribute to the evolution of climate in the period following a Pinatubo-type eruption using a large (81-member) ensemble of model simulations in GISS model E2.1-G. Simulations are initialized from sampled conditions of ENSO and NAO using the protocol of the coordinated CMIP6 Volcanic Model Intercomparison Project (VolMIP) – where aerosols are forced with respect to time, latitude, and height. We analyze paired anomalous variations (perturbed – control) to understand changes in global and regional climate responses under positive, negative, and neutral ENSO and NAO conditions. In particular, we find that for paired anomalies there is a high probability of strong (∼1.5 °C) warming of northern Eurasia surface air temperature in the first winter after the volcanic eruption for negative NAO ensembles coincident with decreased lower stratospheric temperature at the poles, decreased geopotential height, and strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Climate anomalies (relative to average conditions across the control period), however, show no mean warming and suggest that the strength of this response is impacted by conditions present in the selected period of the control run. Again using paired anomalies, we also observe that under both +ENSO and −ENSO ensembles sea surface temperature decreases in the first post-eruptive boreal winter coinciding with surface cooling from volcanic aerosols. Neutral ENSO ensembles, on the other hand, show variability in their response with no clear trend in post-eruptive warming or cooling. In general, paired anomalies from unperturbed simulations give insight into the evolution of the climate response to volcanic forcing; however, when compared with anomalies from climatological conditions, it is clear that paired anomalies are significantly affected by sampled initial conditions occurring at the time of the volcanic eruption.

volcanic eruptions↗

Mission Lifecycle Modeling and Simulation

Mission synthesis and simulation research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory addresses mission model taxonomy, progressive lifecycle representation, model-based mission design, and simulation-in-the-loop design.

Modeling Simulation↗

Wind Energy Modeling and Simulation, Volume 2: Turbine and System

In order to optimise the yield of wind power from existing and future wind plants, the entire breadth of the system of a plant, from the wind field to the turbine components, needs to be modelled in the design process. The modelling and simulation approaches used in each subsystem as well as the system-wide solution methods to optimize across subsystem boundaries are described in this reference. Chapters are written by technical experts in each field, describing the current state of the art in modelling and simulation for wind plant design. This comprehensive, two-volume research reference will provide long-lasting insight into the methods that will need to be developed for the technology to advance into its next generation. Volume 2 covers turbine level aerodynamics, aeroelasticity, rotors drivetrains and electrical systems, wind turbine control, offshore foundations, system optimization, and grid modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Matter-neutrino resonance in a multiangle neutrino bulb model

Simulations of neutrino flavor evolution in compact merger environments have shown that neutrino flavor, and hence nucleosynthesis, can be strongly affected by the presence of matter-neutrino resonances (MNRs), where there is a cancelation between the matter and the neutrino potential. Simulations performed thus far follow flavor evolution along a single neutrino trajectory, but self-consistency requires all trajectories to be treated simultaneously, and it has not been known whether MNR phenomena would still occur in multiangle models. In this paper, we present the first fully multi-angle calculations of MNR. We find that familiar MNR phenomena, where neutrinos transform to a greater extent than anti-neutrinos and a feedback mechanism maintains the cancellation between the matter and neutrino potential, still occurs for a subset of angular bins, although the flavor transformation is not as efficient as in the single-angle case. In addition, we find other types of flavor transformation that are not seen in single-angle simulations. These flavor transformation phenomena appear to be robust and are present for a wide range of model parameters, as long as an MNR is present. Although computational constraints currently limit us to models with spherical symmetry, our results suggest that the presence of an MNR generally leads to large-scale neutrino flavor evolution in multiangle systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

JANNAF 25th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee, 37th Combustion Subcommittee and 1st Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee Joint Meeting

Volume I, the first of three volumes, is a compilation of 24 unclassified/unlimited-distribution technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 25th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee, 37th Combustion Subcommittee and 1st Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee (MSS) meeting held jointly with the 19th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee. The meeting was held 13-17 November 2000 at the Naval Postgraduate School and Hyatt Regency Hotel, Monterey, California. Topics covered include: a Keynote Address on Future Combat Systems, a review of the new JANNAF Modeling and Simulation Subcommittee, and technical papers on Hyper-X propulsion development and verification; GTX airbreathing launch vehicles; Hypersonic technology development, including program overviews, fuels for advanced propulsion, ramjet and scramjet research, hypersonic test medium effects; and RBCC engine design and performance, and PDE and UCAV advanced and combined cycle engine technologies.

Fry, Ronald S.↗

Unsupervised machine learning based on non-negative tensor factorization for analyzing reactive-mixing

Analysis of reactive-diffusion simulations representing complex mixing processes requires a large number of independent model runs. For each high-fidelity model simulation, the model inputs are varied and the predicted mixing behavior is represented by temporal and spatial changes in species concentration. It is then required to discern how the model inputs (such as diffusivity, dispersion, anisotropy, and velocity field properties) impact the mixing process. This task is challenging and typically involves interpretation of large model outputs representing temporal and spatial changes of species concentration within the model domain. Yet, the task can be automated and substantially simplified by applying Machine Learning (ML) methods. Here, we present an application of an unsupervised ML method (called NTF k ) using Non-negative Tensor Factorization (NTF) coupled with a custom clustering procedure based on k-means to reveal the temporal and spatial features in product concentrations. An attractive and unique aspect of the proposed ML method is that it ensures the extracted features are non-negative, which is important to obtain a meaningful deconstruction of the mixing processes. The ML methodology is applied to a large set of high-resolution finite-element model simulations representing anisotropic reaction-diffusion processes in perturbed vortex-based velocity fields. The applied finite-element method ensures that spatial and temporal species concentration are always non-negative, even in the case of high anisotropic contrasts. The simulated reaction is a fast irreversible bimolecular reaction A+B→C , where species A and B react to form species C. The reactive-diffusion model input parameters that control mixing include properties of the velocity field (such as vortex structures), anisotropic dispersion, and molecular diffusion. We demonstrate the applicability of the ML feature extraction method to produce a meaningful deconstruction of model outputs to discriminate between different physical processes impacting the reactants, their mixing, and the spatial distribution of the product C. The introduced ML analysis allowed us to identify additive temporal and spatial features that characterize mixing behavior. The application of the proposed NTF k approach is not limited to reactive-mixing. NTFk can be readily applied to any observed or simulated datasets that can be represented as tensors (multi-dimensional arrays) and have separable latent signatures or features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A): A New Undertaking for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

and Accreditation (VV&A) session audience, a snapshot review of the Exploration Space Mission Directorate s (ESMD) investigation into implementation of a modeling and simulation (M&S) VV&A program. The presentation provides some legacy ESMD reference material, including information on the then-current organizational structure, and M&S (Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA)) focus contained therein, to provide a context for the proposed M&S VV&A approach. This reference material briefly highlights the SBA goals and objectives, and outlines FY05 M&S development and implementation consistent with the Subjective Assessment, Constructive Assessment, Operator-in-the-Loop Assessment, Hardware-in-the-Loop Assessment, and In Service Operations Assessment M&S construct, the NASA Exploration Information Ontology Model (NExIOM) data model, and integration with the Windchill-based Integrated Collaborative Environment (ICE). The presentation then addresses the ESMD team s initial conclusions regarding an M&S VV&A program, summarizes the general VV&A implementation approach anticipated, and outlines some of the recognized VV&A program challenges, all within a broader context of the overarching Integrated Modeling and Simulation (IM&S) environment at both the ESMD and Agency (NASA) levels. The presentation concludes with a status on the current M&S organization s progress to date relative to the recommended IM&S implementation activity. The overall presentation was focused to provide, for the Verification, Validation,

Prill, Mark E.↗

Propagation of statistical uncertainties of Skyrme mass models to simulations of r -process nucleosynthesis

Uncertainties in nuclear models have a major impact on simulations that aim at understanding the origin of heavy elements in the universe through the rapid neutron capture process ( r process) of nucleosynthesis. Within the framework of the nuclear density functional theory, we use results of Bayesian statistical analysis to propagate uncertainties in the parameters of energy density functionals to the predicted r -process abundance pattern, by way not only of the nuclear masses but also through the influence of the masses on β -decay and neutron capture rates. We point out the importance of the nonequilibrium end stage of the r process in determining the width of the resulting abundance pattern uncertainty bands. We additionally make the first identifications of specific parameters of Skyrme-like energy density functionals which show tentative correlations with particular aspects of the r -process abundance pattern. While previous studies have explored the reduction in the abundance pattern uncertainties due to anticipated new measurements of neutron-rich nuclei, here we point out that an even larger reduction will occur when these new measurements are used to reduce the uncertainty of model predictions of masses, which are then propagated through to the abundance pattern. We make a quantitative prediction for how large this reduction will be.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Philosophy and Requirements Overview

Following the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, the NASA Administrator chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify those CAIB report elements with NASA-wide applicability and to develop corrective measures to address each element. One such measure was the development of a standard for the development, documentation, and operation of models and simulations. This report describes the philosophy and requirements overview of the resulting NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.

Blattnig, St3eve R.↗

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations: Philosophy and Requirements Overview

Following the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report, the NASA Administrator chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify those CAIB report elements with NASA-wide applicability and to develop corrective measures to address each element. One such measure was the development of a standard for the development, documentation, and operation of models and simulations. This report describes the philosophy and requirements overview of the resulting NASA Standard for Models and Simulations.

Blattnig, Steve R.↗

QMMM 2023: A program for combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical modeling and simulations

Combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical (QM/MM) methods play an important role in multiscale modeling and simulations. QMMM 2023 is a general-purpose program for single-point calculations, geometry optimizations, transition-state optimizations, and molecular dynamics (MD) at the QM/MM level. It calls a QM package and an MM package to perform the required single-level calculations and combines them into a QM/MM energy by a variety of schemes. QMMM 2023 supports GAMESS-US, Gaussian, and ORCA as QM packages and Tinker as the MM package. Four types of treatments are available for embedding the QM subsystem in the MM environment: mechanical embedding with gas-phase calculations of the QM region, electronic embedding that allows polarization of the QM region by the MM environment, polarizable embedding for mutual polarization of the QM and MM regions, and flexible embedding for both mutual polarization and partial charge transfer between the QM and MM regions. Boundaries between QM and MM regions that pass through covalent bonds can be treated by several methods, including the redistributed charge (RC) scheme, redistributed charge and dipole (RCD) scheme, balanced-RC scheme, balanced-RCD scheme, screened charge scheme that takes account of charge penetration effects, and smeared charge scheme that delocalizes the MM charges near the QM–MM boundary. Geometry optimization can be done using the optimizer implemented in QMMM 2023 or the Berny optimizer in Gaussian through external calls to Gaussian. Molecular dynamics simulations can be performed at the pure-MM level, pure-QM level, fixed-partitioning QM/MM level, and adaptive-partitioning QM/MM level. As a result, the adaptive-partitioning treatments permit on-the-fly relocation of the QM–MM boundary by dynamically reclassifying atoms or groups into the QM or MM subsystems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Proposed mechanistic model to simulate transfer line cool-down process using liquid helium

This paper proposes a mathematical model to simulate the cool-down behavior of a warm transfer line using liquid helium (including He II) in a microgravity environment. The thermal-hydraulic characteristics of different possible flow regimes which may occur during the cool-down process are discussed. Correlations for predicting the heat and momentum transfer rates in each flow regime are presented.

Ng, Y. S.↗