Validation of Bayesian modeling approach of uncertainty in organ doses using post-mortem measurements
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Results for “Measurement uncertainty”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Adaptive Sampling for In Situ Cloud Probe (Final Report)
Clouds play a leading role in the Earth's global energy and solar radiation balance and hydrological cycle. Improving cloud models requires detailed information on the cloud microphysical properties, such as droplet size distribution and number density, liquid water content and cloud composition (droplets, ice particles), which can only be provided by aerial in situ measurements. However, for many atmospheric measurement instruments, the lack of flexibility in selecting the operational mode during operation can lead to uncertainties in sampling and measurement characteristics under continuously varying atmospheric conditions. This SBIR project is developing an advanced, compact optical imaging technology for in situ characterization of cloud hydrometeors. The development involves a deep modification of the existing Mesa Photonics’ Cloud Droplet Measurement System (CDMS) in order to implement real-time automatic adaptive sampling based on the acquired in situ data and environmental parameters. The new system, CDMS-2, implements two measurement modes: side-scatter imaging for smaller hydrometeors and direct bright-field-illumination imaging for larger hydrometeors in a significantly larger sample volume. The system measures the droplet size distribution (DSD) and number density with an added capability of discriminating between liquid water and ice hydrometeors (based on polarization-resolved side-scatter imaging). The instrument will implement automatic switching or alternating between the regular side-scatter imaging mode and sparse/large hydrometeor mode (based on the acquired data). Other adaptive sampling capabilities include variable sample volume and dynamic range (based on the measured DSD). The preferred deployment platforms are uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and tethered balloon/kite systems (TBS). The Phase I project achieved (or exceeded) the goals listed in the Work Plan. A CDMS-2 laboratory prototype implementing the polarization-resolved side-scatter imaging mode and direct bright-field-illumination imaging mode was designed and built. Additional capabilities included the variable illumination pulse energy and sample volume. The smallest detectable droplet diameter was improved to 3–4 μm (from the nominal 10 μm value specified for the original CDMS). Discrimination between water droplets and ice particles was experimentally demonstrated. The Phase I prototype was extensively tested and calibrated in the laboratory and also tested in the Pi Cloud Chamber at Michigan Technological University (MTU). The two intensive experimental campaigns at MTU provided unique opportunities of testing the CDMS-2 laboratory prototype under realistic warm and mixed-phase cloud conditions (stable for long periods of time), testing different sampling modes and intercomparing the CDMS-2 prototype to other co-located cloud characterization instruments. The Phase I project successfully demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed technology and identified the engineering challenges of designing a field deployable prototype instrument in Phase II. The Phase I study provides a solid basis for development, characterization and field-testing of the proposed advanced cloud probe with adaptive sampling in Phase II followed by commercialization of the technology in Phase III.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Uncertainty in Annual Energy Resulting from Uncertain Irradiance Measurements.
Abstract not provided.
Hansen, Clifford W↗
Uncertainty analysis and performance evaluation of thermophysical property measurement of liquid Au in microgravity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Jannatun Nawer↗
CCN data from TAMU TRACER campaign in the Houston TX region from July to September 2022
During TRACER, the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurements Van (ROAM-V) was deployed to capture airmasses behind (maritime) and ahead (continental) of the passage of the sea-breeze front through Houston. On select sampling days, ROAM-V sampled in the morning/mid-day on the coast and then transited to a second inland site for the afternoon/evening. The suite of instruments deployed on ROAM-V included a Condensation Particle Counter (CPC; GRIMM Model 5.403 CPC), Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS; TSI 3750 detector, TSI 3082 classifier, TSI 3088 neutralizer, TSI 3081A Differential Mobility Analyzer), Cloud Condensation Nuclei counter (Droplet Measurement Technologies CCN Counter), micro pulse lidar (Droplet Measurement Technologies Micro Pulse LiDAR (miniMPL)), and a Davis Rotating Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM; DRUMAir 4-DRUM). Before sampling at each location, the latitude and longitude were recorded using the GPS on the phone application “My Altitude”. Onboard the ROAM-V, aerosol samples are drawn through a shared isokinetic inlet at a flow rate ranging from 3.5 to 7.0 LPM. A portion of this flow is directed through a cyclone impactor (Brechtel, Inc. Model SCC 0.732) and 0.5 LPM is directed to the CCN. To calculate particle losses, we used a two-step method. First, the measured SMPS size distributions were used to calculate particle loss through the inlet during sampling. Second, the corrected SMPS data was used to calculate the average of the total losses per scan down the CCN line. Then, the correction was applied to the CCN data. This calculation was done separately for each deployment location due to changes in the measured size distributions between locations. Particle loss from diffusion (based on Kesten, 1991 and Gormley, 1949), inertial impaction in 90-degree bends (based on Aerosol Measurement, 2011 and Crane, 1977), and cyclone impactor efficiency (based on Dirgo, 1985) were included in the loss calculation. When the SMPS was not sampling at a location (in the case of an instrument malfunction or operator error), the reported CPC data was corrected with an average of the total losses for the entire campaign at the specified deployment location (e.g., if we needed to correct Galveston data, then the average of all calculated losses at Galveston was taken). These flatline corrections were used for all data on 22/07/13, 22/07/20, 22/07/22, and the data from Galveston on 22/08/09. The supersaturation uncertainty is estimated conservatively at +/- 0.03%, where variation in the inlet temperature, pressure, and calibration technique prevents a more accurate measurement. Confidence in the reported supersaturation measurements is based on a pre-campaign calibration (following the methods from our previous work and Deng, 2014 based on Rose, 2008) in addition to inter-comparisons with the DOE for two days (22/08/18 and 22/09/01) where TAMU was co-located with AMF1. The inter-comparisons show good agreement between our instrument and the DOEs instrument on both days at all supersaturations. After the last inter-comparison on 22/09/01, there was no indication of a malfunction by our instrument through the rest of the campaign. Unfortunately, the instrument was dropped during demobilization. A post-campaign calibration was conducted, which showed a substantial departure from the pre-campaign calibration. The drop may have damaged the instrument’s ability to produce the desired supersaturations. Therefore, we do consider the data after 22/09/01 to be correct, but it should be used with caution. The CCN counter sampled for 3 minutes at each supersaturation setpoint (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%). At the end of a cycle, the instrument was set to 0.01% supersaturation for 5 minutes. The data is comprised of the last 60 seconds of each supersaturation set point (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%) to ensure the instrument stabilized and was able to reach thermal equilibrium. We removed the data during the periods where there were operational difficulties, setup, or maintenance. This data was collected for ARM Field Campaign AFC07055 and supported by DOE ASR grant DE-SC0021047. For any further questions, please feel free to contact the instrument PI, Sarah D. Brooks, sbrooks@tamu.edu. Rose et. al. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainties of a Continuous-Flow Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter (DMT-CCNC): CCN Activation of Ammonium Sulfate and Sodium Chloride Aerosol Particles in Theory and Experiment. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1153-1179, 2008. Deng et. al. Using Raman Microspectroscopy to Determine Chemical Composition and Mixing State of Airborne Marine Aerosols over the Pacific Ocean. Aerosol Science and Technology, Vol 48, Issue 2, 2014. Kesten et. al. Calibration of a TSI Model 3025 Ultrafine Condensation Particle Counter. Aerosol Science and Technology, 15:2, 107-111, 1991. Gormley et. al. Diffusion from a Stream Flowing through a Cylindrical Tube. Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy, Vol 52, 163-169, 1948. Aerosol Measurement: Principles, Techniques, and Applications, Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2011. Crane et. al. Inertial Deposition of Particles in a Bent Pipe. Journal of Aerosol Science, Vol 8, 161-170, 1977. Dirgo et. al. Cyclone Collection Efficiency: Comparison of Experimental Results with Theoretical Predictions. Aerosol Science and Technology, 4:4, 401-415, 1985.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Measurement of 𝜔 meson production in 𝑝𝑝 and 𝑝-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV
We present the measurement of the 𝑝 T -differential production cross section of 𝜔 mesons in pp and 𝑝-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV at midrapidity by ALICE. In addition, the first measurement of the nuclear modification factor 𝑅 𝑝Pb for 𝜔 mesons at LHC energies is presented, complementing the existing measurements of lighter neutral mesons such as the 𝜋 0 and 𝜂. Within the measured 𝑝 T range, the 𝑅 𝑝Pb of 𝜔 mesons is compatible with no cold nuclear matter effects within the uncertainties, consistent with previous measurements at lower energies. The 𝜔/𝜋 0 ratio is presented for both collision systems, showing no collision system dependence within the uncertainties. The comparison to previously published 𝜔/𝜋 0 ratios at lower and higher collision energies in pp collisions suggests a decreasing trend of the ratio above 𝑝T = 4 GeV/𝑐 with increasing collision energy. The data in both collision systems are compared to predictions from PYTHIA 8, EPOS LHC, and DPMJET event generators, revealing significant shortcomings in these models’ ability to describe the production of 𝜔 mesons.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Extension of Complex Refractive Index Measurements to the Near-Infrared for Liquids: Methodology and Uncertainty Analysis
Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Inelastic dark matter scattering off Thallium cannot save DAMA
We study the compatibility of the observed DAMA modulation signal with inelastic scattering of dark matter (DM) off of the 0.1% Thallium (Tl) dopant in DAMA. In this work we test whether there exist regions of parameter space where the Tl interpretation gives a good fit to the most recent data from DAMA, and whether these regions are compatible with the latest constraints from other direct detection experiments. Previously, Chang et al. in 2010, had proposed the Tl interpretation of the DAMA data, and more recently (in 2019) the DAMA/LIBRA collaboration found regions in parameter space of Tl inelastic scattering that differ by more than 10σ from a no modulation hypothesis. We have expanded upon their work by testing whether the regions of parameter space where inelastic DM-Tl scattering gives a good fit to the most recent DAMA data survive the constraints placed by the lack of a DM signal in XENON1T and CRESST-II. In addition, we have tested how these regions change with the main sources of uncertainty: the Tl quenching factor, which has never been measured directly, and the astrophysical uncertainties in the DM distribution. We conclude that inelastic DM scattering off Tl cannot explain the DAMA data in light of null results from other experiments.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
How Austenitic Is a Martensitic Steel Produced by Laser Powder Bed Fusion? A Cautionary Tale
Accurate phase fraction analysis is an essential element of the microstructural characterization of alloys and often serves as a basis to quantify effects such as heat treatment or mechanical deformation. Additive manufacturing (AM) of metals, due to the intrinsic nonequilibrium solidification and spatial variability, creates additional challenges for the proper quantification of phase fraction. Such challenges are exacerbated when the alloy itself is prone to deformation-induced phase transformation. Using commonly available in-house X-ray diffraction (XRD) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and less commonly used synchrotron-based high-energy X-ray diffraction, we characterized nitrogen-atomized 17-4 precipitation-hardening martensitic stainless steel, a class of AM alloy that has received broad attention within the AM research community. On the same build, our measurements recovered the entire range of reported values on the austenite phase fractions of as-built AM 17-4 in literature, from ≈100% martensite to ≈100% austenite. Aided by Calphad simulation, our experimental findings established that our as-built AM 17-4 is almost fully austenitic and that in-house XRD and EBSD measurements are subject to significant uncertainties created by the specimen’s surface finish. Hence, measurements made using these techniques must be understood in their correct context. Our results carry significant implications, not only to AM 17-4 but also to AM alloys that are susceptible to deformation-induced structure transformation and suggest that characterizations with less accessible but bulk sensitive techniques such as synchrotron-based high energy X-ray diffraction or neutron diffraction may be required for proper understanding of these materials.
17-4 steel↗
Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study
At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
A magnetic diagnostic suite for the Pegasus-III experiment
Pegasus-III is an ultralow aspect ratio spherical tokamak providing a dedicated US experiment for comparative solenoid-free startup studies. A new magnetic diagnostic suite for equilibrium and low frequency (<200 kHz) magnetohydrodynamic mode analysis has been installed. These new diagnostics address the significant challenges of measuring magnetic field in a high noise environment with the majority constrained to fit in an 8 mm diagnostic gap on the high field side. Electrostatic switching noise generated by the 16 independent current feedback-controlled power supplies produces dV cm /dt ~ 1 kV/μs and volt level common mode noise on the magnetics. Immunity to this switching noise is accomplished through differential signal runs and signal processing, along with end-to-end electromagnetic interference shielding. The magnetic measurements are simultaneously digitized at 1 MHz and conditioned by precision 8 pole Butterworth filters with a corner frequency of 200 kHz to prevent aliasing down to the 16-bit level over the full passband. Ex-vessel calibrations of the B p coils were completed with a typical uncertainty of <0.5%. Stray toroidal field pickup from coil misalignment or positioning errors is corrected using a physics-based model. Comparisons of the corrected measurements to modeling agree to within 1.3% on average. This is within the 1.5% measurement uncertainty that a sensitivity analysis determined is needed for accurate fast boundary and equilibrium reconstruction.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Measuring neutron skin by grazing isobaric collisions
Neutron skin thickness (Δr np ) of nuclei and the inferred nuclear symmetry energy are of critical importance to nuclear physics and astrophysics. It is traditionally measured by nuclear processes with significant theoretical uncertainties. We recently proposed an indirect measurement of the Δr np by charged hadron multiplicities in central isobaric collisions at relativistic energies, which are sensitive to nuclear densities. In this Letter, we propose a direct measurement of the Δr np by using net-charge multiplicities in ultra-peripheral (grazing) collisions of those isobars, under the assumption that they are simple superimposition of nucleon-nucleon interactions. Here, we illustrate this novel approach by the TRENTO and URQMD models.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions
his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A measurement of two-photon exchange in Super-Rosenbluth separations with positron beams
The proton electric and magnetic form factors, G E and G M , are intrinsically connected to the spatial distribution of charge and magnetization in the proton. For decades, Rosenbluth separation measurements of the angular dependence of elastic e--p scattering were used to extract G E and G M . More recently, polarized electron scattering measurements, aiming to improve the precision of G E extractions, showed significant disagreement with Rosenbluth measurements at large momentum transfers (Q 2 ). This discrepancy is generally attributed to neglected two-photon exchange (TPE) corrections. At larger Q 2 values, a new ‘Super-Rosenbluth’ technique was used to improve the precision of the Rosenbluth extraction, allowing for a better quantification of the discrepancy, while comparisons of e + -p and e - -p scattering indicated the presence of TPE corrections, but at Q 2 values below where a clear discrepancy is observed. Here, in this work, we demonstrate the significant benefits to combining the Super-Rosenbluth technique with positron beam measurements. This approach provides a greater kinematic reach and is insensitive to some of the key systematic uncertainties in previous positron measurements.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Energy Budgets of the Giant Planets and Titan
As a fundamental property, the energy budget affects many aspeCts of planets and their moons, such as thermal structure, meteorology, and evolution. We use the observations from two Cassini spectrometers (i.e., CIRS and VIMS) to explore one important component of the energy budget the total emitted power of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan (Li et al., 2010, 2011, 2012). Key results are: (1) The Cassini observations precisely measure the global-average emitted power of three bodies: 14.l0+/-0.03 Wm(exp -2), 4.952+/-0.035 Wm(exp -2), and 2.834+/-0.012 Wm(exp -2) for Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan, respectively. (2) The meridional distribution of emitted power displays a significant asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres on Jupiter and Saturn. On Titan, the meridional distribution of emitted power is basically symmetric around the equator. (3) Comparing with the Voyager measurements, the new Cassini observations reveal a significant temporal variation of emitted power on both Jupiter and Saturn: i) The asymmetry between the two hemisphere shown in the Cassini epoch (2000-2010) is not present in the Voyager epoch (1979-1980); and ii) From the Voyager epoch to the Cassini epoch, the global-average emitted power appeared to increase by approx 3.8% for Jupiter and approx 6.4% for Saturn. (4) Together with previous measurements of the absorbed solar power on Titan, the new Cassini measurements of emitted power provide the first observational evidence of the global energy balance on Titan. The uncertainty in the previous measurements of absorbed solar energy places an upper limit on its energy imbalance of 6.0% on Titan. The exploration of emitted power is the first part of a series of studies examining the temporal variability of the energy budget on the giant planets and Titan. Currently, We are measuring the absorbed solar energy in order to determine new constraints on the energy budgets of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan.
Liming, Li↗
Development of a water source heat pump hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing facility for smart building applications
Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotalpoint between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical heatpumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on the heatpump operation andperformance under different weather, building load, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental tests with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study presents a Water-Source Heat Pump Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility developed with the capability to perform such tests. The hardware configuration for this testfacility introduces a hydronic system that emulates the conditions for the heat pump water-side, and a duct system that emulates conditions for the heat pump airside. Both data acquisition and emulator control are implemented through the National Instruments (NI) LabVIEW software running on an NI PXIplatform. The HIL mechanism based on the hardware-software integration that allows the testbed to communicate with a generic simulation environment is also discussed. Currently, the test facility setup includes a single heatpump and virtual building model in EnergyPlus coupled with an occupant behavioral model in MATLAB. Preliminary test results of the current setup demonstrate the building load emulator's ability to track the simulated gone temperature with a Root Mean Square Deviation (RSME) below 0.12°C (0.216°F). An uncertainty analysis based on sensor accuracies shows that the heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with a relative uncertainty of 10.4% in cooling and 3.7% in heating. Apartfrom the current testing on a single heat pump, the test facility also provides the flexibility to include additional heat pumps to form a heat pump cluster, as well as coupling the heat pump with active thermal storage to provide enhanced demandflexibility.
Calfa, Caleb↗
GCR Environmental Models III: GCR Model Validation and Propagated Uncertainties in Effective Dose
This is the last of three papers focused on quantifying the uncertainty associated with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) models used for space radiation shielding applications. In the first paper, it was found that GCR ions with Z>2 and boundary energy below 500 MeV/nucleon induce less than 5% of the total effective dose behind shielding. This is an important finding since GCR model development and validation have been heavily biased toward Advanced Composition Explorer/Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer measurements below 500 MeV/nucleon. Weights were also developed that quantify the relative contribution of defined GCR energy and charge groups to effective dose behind shielding. In the second paper, it was shown that these weights could be used to efficiently propagate GCR model uncertainties into effective dose behind shielding. In this work, uncertainties are quantified for a few commonly used GCR models. A validation metric is developed that accounts for measurements uncertainty, and the metric is coupled to the fast uncertainty propagation method. For this work, the Badhwar-O'Neill (BON) 2010 and 2011 and the Matthia GCR models are compared to an extensive measurement database. It is shown that BON2011 systematically overestimates heavy ion fluxes in the range 0.5-4 GeV/nucleon. The BON2010 and BON2011 also show moderate and large errors in reproducing past solar activity near the 2000 solar maximum and 2010 solar minimum. It is found that all three models induce relative errors in effective dose in the interval [-20%, 20%] at a 68% confidence level. The BON2010 and Matthia models are found to have similar overall uncertainty estimates and are preferred for space radiation shielding applications.
Slaba, Tony C.↗