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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

VERIFICATION OF TRISO FUEL BURNUP USING MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS

Pebble Bed Reactors are fueled with fuel pebbles that are circulated multiple times through the reactor vessel before discharge. During the normal operation of a PBR, ejected pebbles are returned to the reactor or discharged depending on the fuel burnup and physical condition of the pebbles. The burnup measurement is usually based on detected radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over burnup. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134Cs, 137Cs, 154Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values. We propose to use machine learning (ML) method to interpret gamma-ray spectra and predict the burnup values of the pebbles. ML has achieved widespread success and adoption across a few domains that require pattern recognition and analysis in varied data types. In this work, we apply three proven ML approaches - multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and transformers - to the task of predicting fuel burnup from measured gamma spectra, and compile a dataset of simulated spectra for training and validation of the ML models. In this paper, we will discuss the network architecture of these three ML approaches and compare the performance of the simplest of these (MLP) to a standard linear regression.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Design of Perovskite Catalytic Properties

Abstract Discovering new materials that efficiently catalyze the oxygen reduction and evolution reactions is critical for facilitating the widespread adoption of solid oxide fuel cell and electrolyzer (SOFC/SOEC) technologies. Here, machine learning (ML) models are developed to predict perovskite catalytic properties critical for SOFC/SOEC applications, including oxygen surface exchange, oxygen diffusivity, and area specific resistance (ASR). The models are based on trivial‐to‐calculate elemental features and are more accurate and dramatically faster than the best models based on ab initio‐derived features, potentially eliminating the need for ab initio calculations in descriptor‐based screening. The model of ASR enables temperature‐dependent predictions, has well calibrated uncertainty estimates and online accessibility. Use of temporal cross‐validation reveals the model to be effective at discovering new promising materials prior to their initial discovery, demonstrating the model can make meaningful predictions. Using the SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP) approach, detailed discussion of different approaches of model featurization is provided for ML property prediction. Finally, the model is used to screen more than 19 million perovskites to develop a list of promising cheap, earth‐abundant, stable, and high performing materials, and find some top materials contain mixtures of less‐explored elements (e.g., K, Bi, Y, Ni, Cu) worth exploring in more detail.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Gaussian Process Estimation for Large-Scale In Situ Inference using Convolutional Neural Networks

Exascale computing will bring with it significant I/O limitations. One foreseeable consequence of such restrictions is that the user can save only a small fraction of complex simulation data to disk for subsequent analysis. An alternative is to fit statistical models to data in situ, that is, inside the simulation as it runs. This option requires extremely fast statistical estimation to avoid slowing down the simulation. Gaussian processes (GPs) have state-of-the-art predictive performance for modeling spatial data. However, standard estimation methods for GPs scale quite poorly to large data sets as parameter estimation requires inverting a covariance matrix to the size of the data set. In the presented work, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the GP parameters for a spatial data set, from a simulation or otherwise, rather than optimize the parameters directly. Here, our presented case study models spatial data from E3SM, the Department of Energy’s Exascale climate model. The CNN is trained on synthetic data simulated from GP models with known parameters and then applied to data from the climate simulation. In the presented examples, the neural network scheme produces parameter estimates that compare well with standard methods such as maximum likelihood estimation in predictive performance but is obtained four orders of magnitude faster.

big data↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed Machine Learning for Modeling Turbulence in Supernovae

Abstract Turbulence plays an important role in astrophysical phenomena, including core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), but current simulations must rely on subgrid models, since direct numerical simulation is too expensive. Unfortunately, existing subgrid models are not sufficiently accurate. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown an impressive predictive capability for calculating turbulence closure. We have developed a physics-informed convolutional neural network to preserve the realizability condition of the Reynolds stress that is necessary for accurate turbulent pressure prediction. The applicability of the ML subgrid model is tested here for magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in both the stationary and dynamic regimes. Our future goal is to utilize this ML methodology (available on GitHub) in the CCSN framework to investigate the effects of accurately modeled turbulence on the explosion of these stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning reveals genes impacting oxidative stress resistance across yeasts

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are highly reactive molecules encountered by yeasts during routine metabolism and during interactions with other organisms, including host infection. Here, we characterized the variation in resistance to ROS across the ancient yeast subphylum Saccharomycotina and used machine learning (ML) to identify gene families whose sizes were predictive of ROS resistance.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI to Automate ModEx for Optimal Predictive Improvement and Scientific Discovery

Focal Areas: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, advanced experimental optimization, unsupervised learning, and hardware-related AI efforts; Predictive modeling through AI techniques and AI-derived model components; Using AI to design a hierarchical model prediction system consisting and model selection; and, Interrogating complex data (observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods such as explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cognitive simulation models for inertial confinement fusion: Combining simulation and experimental data

The design space for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments is vast, and experiments are extremely expensive. Researchers rely heavily on computer simulations to explore the design space in search of high-performing implosions. However, ICF multiphysics codes must make simplifying assumptions, and thus deviate from experimental measurements for complex implosions. For more effective design and investigation, simulations require input from past experimental data to better predict future performance. In this work, we describe a cognitive simulation method for combining simulation and experimental data into a common, predictive model. This method leverages a machine learning technique called “transfer learning,” the process of taking a model trained to solve one task, and partially retraining it on a sparse dataset to solve a different, but related task. In the context of ICF design, neural network models are trained on large simulation databases and partially retrained on experimental data, producing models that are far more accurate than simulations alone. Here, we demonstrate improved model performance for a range of ICF experiments at the National Ignition Facility and predict the outcome of recent experiments with less than 10% error for several key observables. We discuss how the methods might be used to carry out a data-driven experimental campaign to optimize performance, illustrating the key product—models that become increasingly accurate as data are acquired.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning with Reflection High-Energy Electron Diffraction Images to Predict Cation Ratio in Sr 2 x Ti 2(1– x ) O 3 Thin Films

Machine learning (ML) with in-situ diagnostics offers a transformative approach to accelerate, understand, and control thin film synthesis by uncovering relationships between synthesis conditions and material properties. In this study, we demonstrate the application of deep learning to predict the stoichiometry of Sr 2x Ti 2(1–x) O 3 thin films using reflection high-energy electron diffraction images acquired during pulsed laser deposition. A gated convolutional neural network trained for regression of the Sr atomic fraction achieved accurate predictions with a small dataset of 31 samples. Explainable AI techniques revealed a previously unknown correlation between diffraction streak features and cation stoichiometry in Sr 2x Ti 2(1–x) O 3 thin films. Here, our results demonstrate how ML can be used to transform a ubiquitous in-situ diagnostic tool, that is usually limited to qualitative assessments, into a quantitative surrogate measurement of continuously valued thin film properties. Such methods are critically needed to enable real-time control, autonomous workflows, and accelerate traditional synthesis approaches.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted design of metal–organic frameworks for hydrogen storage: A high-throughput screening and experimental approach

Various theoretical approaches, including big data and high-throughput screening techniques, have been explored in developing new materials due to their significant potential time-saving advantages. However, it remains a significant challenge to experimentally realize new materials that are predicted. In this study, we propose a novel materials design strategy that utilizes machine-learning (ML) techniques to predict new porous materials that show promise for hydrogen storage and are likely to be feasible to synthesize. By leveraging ML techniques and metal–organic framework (MOF) databases, we are able to predict the synthesizability of MOF structures. This is evidenced by the successful synthesis of a new vanadium-based MOF that exhibits excellent performance for cryogenic H 2 storage. Notably, the total gravimetric and volumetric H 2 uptakes are as high as 9.0 wt% and 50.0 g/L at 77 K and 150 bar. This ML-assisted materials design offers an efficient and promising approach for developing hydrogen storage materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review of computational approaches to predict the thermodynamic stability of inorganic solids

Improvements in the efficiency and availability of quantum chemistry codes, supercomputing centers, and open materials databases have transformed the accessibility of computational materials design approaches. Thermodynamic stability predictions play a central role in the efficacy of these approaches and should be considered carefully. This review covers the fundamentals of calculating thermodynamic stability using first-principles methods. Stability is delineated into two main topics — stability with respect to decomposition into competing phases and stability with respect to phase transition into alternative structures at fixed composition. For each topic, a summary of the state-of-the-art is provided along with a tutorial overview of practical considerations. The application of machine learning to both kinds of stability predictions is also covered. Finally, the limitations of thermodynamic stability predictions are discussed within the context of predicting the synthesizability of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the Impact of Utility Lighting Rebate Programs on Promoting Industrial Energy Efficiency: A Machine Learning Approach

Implementation costs are a major factor in manufacturers’ decisions to invest in energy-efficient technologies. Emerging technologies in lighting systems, however, typically require small investment costs and offer short, simple payback periods, due, in part, to federal, state, and utility incentive programs. Recently, however, certain state and federal mandates have reduced the support for and efficacy of electricity utility incentivizing programs. To determine the impact of such support programs, this study examined historical data regarding lighting retrofit savings, implementation costs, and utility rebates gathered from 13 years of industrial energy audits by a U.S. Department of Energy Industrial Assessment Center in a midwestern state. It uses a machine learning approach to evaluate the industrial energy and cost-saving opportunities that may have been lost due to decisions attributable to legislative mandates, utility policies, and manufacturers’ calculations and to evaluate the potential effect of lighting rebates on manufacturers’ decisions to implement industrial energy-efficient lighting retrofits. The results indicate that the decision not to implement lighting energy efficiency recommendations resulted in a loss of more than USD800,000 in potential rebates by industries during the study period and that the implementation of lighting energy assessment recommendations could have increased by about 50% if electric utility rebates had been available. These findings can help industries evaluate the benefits of implementing lighting efficiency improvements, and help utilities determine feasible lighting retrofit rebate values for incentivizing such changes by the industries they serve.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Feasibility of INCONEL® ALLOY 740H® for Power Plant Headers: Integrating Machine Learning with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)

This keynote presentation explores the behavior of headers—essential components of pipeline systems—using ANSYS simulation software and machine learning techniques. The study aims to predict the thermal and mechanical performance of headers under diverse conditions through both steady-state and transient simulations. We investigate critical parameters such as heat transfer coefficient, fluid velocity, and temperature to optimize header design. Conducted as part of a DOE project led by NCAT in collaboration with UNC Charlotte, this research encompasses multiple key topics. The initial section focuses on the behavior of header systems under steady-state conditions using ANSYS simulation. It underscores the importance of headers in industrial infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, and examines the implications of material selection and flow direction on heat transfer dynamics. Methodologically, we employ Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis through ANSYS, detailing the development of models, material properties, geometry specifications, boundary conditions, and meshing strategies. Our simulations explore various operational parameters, including temperature and mass flow rates, crucial for predicting heat transfer coefficients and enhancing header design. Results from the study include parametric investigations into mesh sensitivity, viscosity model evaluations, and the effects of heat transfer locations, all validated against theoretical calculations. We conclude with insights on mesh optimization, the suitability of viscosity models, and recommendations for future research aimed at improving header system efficiency and sustainability in industrial applications.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning approaches for intentional materials engineering

In this article, the development of nanoporous metals and metallic composites through dealloying processes presents significant opportunities in materials engineering. However, designing multicomponent precursor alloys and establishing corresponding processing methods that yield predictable compositions and nanostructures remain a complex challenge. This article explores how machine learning (ML)-augmented computational and experimental methodologies can tackle these challenges by predicting precursor alloy compositions, final nanoporous structures, and mechanical properties, while integrating ML-enabled autonomous experimentation for material design and quantification. We highlight recent advancements in applying ML to nanostructured materials design via dealloying and discuss how techniques from other nanomaterial designs can be adapted for improved control over morphological and compositional outcomes in nanoporous and nanocomposite materials. Furthermore, we explore the role of ML in autonomous synchrotron x-ray experimentation, enabling real-time feedback between modeling and experimental setups. ML-driven approaches to microstructure characterization and mechanical property prediction are also examined, with a focus on modeling and advanced imaging techniques such as three-dimensional nanotomography. Finally, this article outlines future directions for ML-enhanced materials science, emphasizing the exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces and the incorporation of materials kinetics into processing and property evaluation, ultimately advancing the design of nanoporous structures and materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative study of machine learning techniques for post-combustion carbon capture systems

Computational analysis of countercurrent flows in packed absorption columns, often used in solvent-based post-combustion carbon capture systems (CCSs), is challenging. Typically, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches are used to simulate the interactions between a solvent, gas, and column's packing geometry while accounting for the thermodynamics, kinetics, heat, and mass transfer effects of the absorption process. These simulations can then be used explain a column's hydrodynamic characteristics and evaluate its CO 2 -capture efficiency. However, these approaches are computationally expensive, making it difficult to evaluate numerous designs and operating conditions to improve efficiency at industrial scales. In this work, we comprehensively explore the application of statistical ML methods, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs) to aid and accelerate the scale-up and design optimization of solvent-based post-combustion CCSs. We apply these methods to CFD datasets of countercurrent flows in absorption columns with structured packings characterized by several geometric parameters. We train models to use these parameters, inlet velocity conditions, and other model-specific representations of the column to estimate key determinants of CO 2 -capture efficiency without having to simulate additional CFD datasets. We also evaluate the impact of different input types on the accuracy and generalizability of each model. We discuss the strengths and limitations of each approach to further elucidate the role of CNNs, GNNs, and other machine learning approaches for CO 2 -capture property prediction and design optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗