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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mean Estimate Distances for Galaxies with Multiple Estimates in NED-D

Numerous research topics rely on an improved cosmic distance scale (e.g., cosmology, gravitational waves) and the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database of Distances (NED-D) supports those efforts by tabulating multiple redshift-independent distances for 12,000 galaxies (e.g., Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) zero-point). Six methods for securing a mean estimate distance (MED) from the data are presented (e.g., indicator and Decision Tree). All six MEDs yield surprisingly consistent distances for the cases examined, including for the key benchmark LMC and M106 galaxies. The results underscore the utility of the NED-D MEDs in bolstering the cosmic distance scale and facilitating the identification of systematic trends.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Light Element Abundances and Multiple Populations in M53

We present results from a study of 94 red giant stars in the globular cluster M53. We use low-resolution spectra to measure the strength of CN and CH features at ∼3800 and 4300 Å, respectively. The strengths of these features are used to classify stars into a CN-enhanced and CN-normal population and to measure C and N abundances in all 94 stars. We find the red giant branch stars to be evenly split between the two populations identified, and observe the presence of CN-enhanced stars on the asymptotic giant branch. In addition, we identify five CH star candidates based on the strength of their CN and CH band features, and the presence of a P-branch in their CH band. We compare our identification of multiple populations to those based on the Na–O anticorrelation and pseudo-color indices in Hubble Space Telescope UV photometry, and find general agreement between all three methods. Our large sample size also allows us to study the radial distribution of each population, and we find that the CN-enhanced population is more centrally concentrated. We use our C and N measurements to compare the evolutionary changes in these elements as a function of magnitude between the two populations, and show that both populations experience similar evolutionary changes to the surface abundances of C and N. Finally, we calculate C+N+O abundances for each population and compare them to similar measurements made in M10; we find that in both clusters, CN-enhanced stars have a slightly enhanced C+N+O (Δ(C+N+O) ∼ 0.2 dex).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Multiple Paths to Merger of Unequal-mass Black Hole Binaries in the Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

The accretion disks that power active galactic nuclei (AGN) are thought to house populations of stars and compact objects; after forming binaries these compact objects may merge, begetting gravitational waves (GWs) such as those detected by LIGO and VIRGO. We present a comprehensive study of the early evolution of binaries within AGN disks as their orbits are influenced by the surrounding gas, focusing on eccentric and unequal-mass binaries. Nearly equal-mass binaries behave similarly to their equal-mass counterparts: Prograde binaries inspiral, albeit somewhat slowly, and have their eccentricities damped; retrograde binaries inspiral ∼2–3 times faster than their prograde counterparts, and those with near-equal masses are driven quickly toward near-unity eccentricities. However, the primaries in retrograde binaries with mass ratios of m 2 /m 1 ≲ 0.4 experience significantly weaker headwinds and retain substantial accretion disks that help damp binary eccentricities, slowing binary inspirals. Additionally, we find that while accretion drives prograde binaries toward equal masses thanks to the exchange of material between the primary and secondary accretion disks, retrograde binaries are driven slowly toward more extreme mass ratios. Prograde binaries, and generally those with low mass ratios, likely accrete for multiple e-folding timescales before merger. On the other hand, high-mass-ratio retrograde binaries may merge before accreting substantially, potentially approaching merger with detectable eccentricity. Future ground-based GW observatories, with their broader frequency coverage, should be particularly useful for studying these populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ion-rich Acceleration during an Eruptive Flux Rope Event in a Multiple Null-point Configuration

We report on the γ-ray emission above 100 MeV from the GOES M3.3 flare SOL2012-06-03. The hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave emissions have typical time profiles with a fast rise to a well-defined peak followed by a slower decay. The >100 MeV emission during the prompt phase displayed a double-peaked temporal structure with the first peak following the HXR and microwaves, and the second one, about 3 times stronger, occurring 17 ± 2 s later. The time profiles seem to indicate two separate acceleration mechanisms at work, where the second γ-ray peak reveals a potentially pure or at least largely dominant ion acceleration. The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly imaging shows a bright elliptical ribbon and a transient brightening in the northwestern (NW) region. Nonlinear force-free extrapolations at the time of the impulsive peaks show closed field lines connecting the NW region to the southeastern part of the ribbon, and the magnetic topology revealed clusters of nulls. These observations suggest a spine-and-fan geometry, and based on these observations, we interpret the second γ-ray peak as being due to the predominant acceleration of ions in a region with multiple null points. The >100 MeV emission from this flare also exhibits a delayed phase with an exponential decay of roughly 350 s. We find that the delayed emission is consistent with ions being trapped in a closed flux tube with gradual escape via their loss cone to the chromosphere.

Pesce-Rollins, Melissa [Istituto Nazionale di Fisi↗

The influence of multiple groups of biological ice nucleating particles on microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds observed during MC3E

Abstract. A new empirical parameterization (EP) for multiple groups of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) is implemented in the aerosol–cloud model (AC) to investigate their roles as ice nucleating particles (INPs). The EP describes the heterogeneous ice nucleation by (1) fungal spores, (2) bacteria, (3) pollen, (4) detritus of plants, animals, and viruses, and (5) algae. Each group includes fragments from the originally emitted particles. A high-resolution simulation of a midlatitude mesoscale squall line by AC is validated against airborne and ground observations. Sensitivity tests are carried out by varying the initial vertical profiles of the loadings of individual PBAP groups. The resulting changes in warm and ice cloud microphysical parameters are investigated. The changes in warm microphysical parameters, including liquid water content and cloud droplet number concentration, are minimal (<10 %). Overall, PBAPs have little effect on the ice number concentration (<6 %) in the convective region. In the stratiform region, increasing the initial PBAP loadings by a factor of 1000 resulted in less than 40 % change in ice number concentrations. The total ice concentration is mostly controlled by various mechanisms of secondary ice production (SIP). However, when SIP is intentionally shut down in sensitivity tests, increasing the PBAP loading by a factor of 100 has an effect of less than 3 % on the ice phase. Further sensitivity tests revealed that PBAPs have little effect on surface precipitation and on the shortwave and longwave flux (<4 %) for a 100-fold perturbation in PBAPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seawater pH reconstruction using boron isotopes in multiple planktonic foraminifera species with different depth habitats and their potential to constrain pH and <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> gradients

Boron isotope systematics of planktonic foraminifera from core-top sediments and culture experiments have been studied to investigate the sensitivity ofδ11B of calcite tests to seawater pH. However, our knowledge of the relationship between δ11B and pH remains incomplete for many taxa. Thus, to expand the potential scope of application of this proxy, we report δ11B data for seven different species of planktonic foraminifera from sediment core tops. We utilize a method for the measurement of small samples of foraminifera and calculate the δ11B-calcite sensitivity to pH for Globigerinoides ruber, Trilobus sacculifer (sacc or without sacc), Orbulina universa, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Globorotalia menardii, and Globorotalia tumida, including for unstudied core tops and species. These taxa have diverse ecological preferences and are from sites that span a range of oceanographic regimes, including some that are in regions of air–sea equilibrium and others that are out of equilibrium with the atmosphere. The sensitivity of δ11Bcarbonate to δ11Bborate (e.g., Δδ11Bcarbonate/Δδ11Bborate) in core tops is consistent with previous studies for T. sacculifer and G. ruber and close to unity for N. dutertrei, O. universa, and combined deep-dwelling species. Deep-dwelling species closely follow the core-top calibration fo rO. universa, which is attributed to respiration-driven microenvironments likely caused by light limitation and/or symbiont–host interactions. Our data support the premise that utilizing boron isotope measurements of multiple species within a sediment core can be utilized to constrain vertical profiles of pH andpCO2 at sites spanning different oceanic regimes, thereby constraining changes in vertical pH gradients and yielding insights into the past behavior of the oceanic carbon pumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assimilation of multiple datasets results in large differences in regional- to global-scale NEE and GPP budgets simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model

In spite of the importance of land ecosystems in offsetting carbon dioxide emissions released by anthropogenic activities into the atmosphere, the spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial carbon fluxes remain largely uncertain at regional to global scales. Over the past decade, data assimilation (DA) techniques have grown in importance for improving these fluxes simulated by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), by optimizing model parameter values while also pinpointing possible parameterization deficiencies. Although the joint assimilation of multiple data streams is expected to constrain a wider range of model processes, their actual benefits in terms of reduction in model uncertainty are still under-researched, also given the technical challenges. In this study, we investigated with a consistent DA framework and the ORCHIDEE-LMDz TBM–atmosphere model how the assimilation of different combinations of data streams may result in different regional to global carbon budgets. To do so, we performed comprehensive DA experiments where three datasets (in situ measurements of net carbon exchange and latent heat fluxes, spaceborne estimates of the normalized difference vegetation index, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration data measured at stations) were assimilated alone or simultaneously. We thus evaluated their complementarity and usefulness to constrain net and gross C land fluxes. We found that a major challenge in improving the spatial distribution of the land C sinks and sources with atmospheric CO 2 data relates to the correction of the soil carbon imbalance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States

Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Soil Thermal and Electrical Properties along Multiple Hillslope Transects at Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2017

This dataset has been acquired along five-119 m long transects located on the bottom part of the watershed hillslope at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in July and September 2017. The Distributed Temperature Profiling (DTP) system dataset consist in vertically-resolved profile of soil temperature covering the top 0.8 m of soil with 8 cm interval. In addition to DPT data, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data, soil moisture, depth to rock or thaw layer thickness (no differentiation) and ground elevations data have been acquired along each of the transects. A UAV-based geotiff mosaic of the investigated site is also provided. The four data types provided with this dataset of 37 files (*.csv, *.tif, *.DATA): (1) soil temperature profiles, (2) ERT data, (3) the physical measurements of the thaw layer, and (4) an orthomosaic GeoTIFF of the transect study area.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil physical and thermal properties from soil samples at multiple locations at Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

This dataset contains results of the laboratory analysis of soil samples collected across the watershed located at miles #27 along the Teller road, near Nome, AK. The dataset includes 124 soil samples retrieved from 52 locations during the first week of August 2019. The soil samples were collected in the top 1.2 m of soil with volume known samples, analyzed with a thermal analyser to infer thermal parameters (thermal conductivity, volumetric heat capacity and thermal diffusivity), and then processed in a lab for estimation of their bulk density, water content, carbon and nitrogen content, soil texture, and elemental fractions. This dataset has one csv file and one pdf file.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics of a Lunar Landing Configuration Having Various Multiple-Leg Landing-Gear Arrangements

An experimental investigation has been made of some lunar-landing characteristics of a 1/6-scale dynamic model of a landing module having multiple-leg landing-gear systems. Symmetric four-point and five-point systems were investigated. The landing-gear legs were inverted tripod arrangements having a telescoping main strut which incorporated a yielding-metal strap for energy dissipation, hinged V-struts, and circular pads. The landing tests were made by launching a free model onto an impenetrable hard surface (concrete) and onto a powdered-pumice overlay of various depths. Landing motion and acceleration data were obtained for a range of touchdown speeds, touchdown attitudes, and landing-surface conditions. Maximum normal acceleration experienced at the module center of gravity during landings on hard surface or pumice was 2g (full-scale lunar value in terms of earth's gravity) over a wide range of touchdown conditions. acceleration experienced was 12 1/2 radians/sec(exp 2) and maximum longitudinal acceleration was 1 3/4g. The module was very stable with all gear configurations during landings on hard surface (coefficient of friction, micron = 0.4) at all conditions tested. Some overturn instability occurred during landings on powdered pumice (micron = 0.7 to 1.0) depending upon flight path, pitch and yaw attitude, depth of pumice, surface topography, and landing-gear configuration. The effect on stability of roll attitude for the limited amount of roll-attitude landing data obtained was insignificant. Compared with the four-point landing gear, the five-point system with equal maximum gear radius increased landing stability slightly and improved the static stability for subsequent lunar launch. A considerable increase in landing stability in the direction of motion was obtained with an asymmetric four-point gear having two pads offset to increase gear radius by 33 percent in the direction of horizontal flight.

Blanchard, Ulysse J.↗