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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO 2 . This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10,000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO 2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology develo pers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Charting the unknown: A dive into the world of standards mapping

When you hear standards mapping what do you think about? For the Secure Software Central (SSC) project this means comparing our process to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) security control catalog. So how is it done? The project completed this summer can be broken down into three simple phases. Phase one consists of mapping the SSC process to the NIST’s security control catalog. While phase two entails mapping mitigations from a threat profile to NIST. Lastly phase three requires the creation of a knowledge base allowing for the reuse of controls across numerous projects This project presented a few different challenges: locating the correct control within the NIST catalog while correctly matching the proposed mitigations from the SSC team, accurately leveling the mitigation to the security level of the system, creating a toolbox to showcase a dataset of mitigations and standards to be used in current and future projects. each challenge allowed for opportunities in growth and understanding of how security controls can map to a governing set of standards. These standards maps are a crucial element to support the insights provided by the SSC team and allow the client to have confidence in the work being completed. My internship has allowed me to set and achieve many goals such as coming to understand that the field of cybersecurity truly is the right place for me. I have also learned that it’s ok to be wrong if you learn something from it. For significant accomplishments I have helped integrate standards mapping into the fabric of SSC. The field experience that I have gained such as interacting with the SSC team along with other senior staff and building a good rapport are crucial skills to. This time at PNNL has been an irreplaceable experience.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining Graphite Degradation in Molten Salt Environments: A Chemical, Physical, and Material Analysis

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are Generation IV nuclear reactors that use liquid salt as a coolant and/or fuel. In several MSR designs, graphite serves as a moderator and/or reflector. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, our understanding of graphite behavior in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report aims to identify the degradation mechanisms of nuclear graphite in MSRs, detail the mechanisms of each factor, and provide an initial assessment of their impact on the structural integrity of graphite components. This assessment is based on an extensive literature review and insights from subject matter experts. Furthermore, given the limited data, a modeling strategy using existing Grizzly software is proposed for a more thorough analysis where appropriate. Additionally, it presents mitigation strategies where applicable. The report covers physical degradation mechanisms such as infiltration, erosion, and abrasion, as well as chemical degradation mechanisms including fluorination, intercalation, corrosion, and oxidation. Molten salt can infiltrate the porous structure of graphite, leading to several detrimental effects. Entrapment of fissile products within the graphite pores can cause radiation damage and could pose challenges in the handling and disposal of contaminated components. The differential thermal expansion between the infiltrated salt and graphite, along with internal stress from pressurized molten salt and volumetric heating, can compromise the structural integrity of graphite. To mitigate these effects, employing ultra-fine graphite grades and applying sealants and coatings are effective strategies. A computational model based on coupled solid mechanics and heat transfer phenomena could be used to predict the internal stresses using Grizzly software. In pebble-bed MSRs, graphite fuel pebbles can cause abrasion against reactor components due to friction and wear. The severity of wear is influenced by various factors such as temperature, environment, and the presence of lubricants. Tribological studies reveal that higher temperatures and molten salt environments, such as FLiBe, significantly reduce wear rates compared to dry conditions. Additionally, the chemical composition of the salt can further optimize graphite's tribological performance. Long-term wear effects can be modeled by incorporating surface defects into the geometry and predict stresses under thermal and radiation effects using Grizzly software. Chemical degradation of graphite in a molten salt environment can occur through fluorination and intercalation. Fluorination can occur via replacement of hydrogen or oxygen atoms, or at the active sites, but does not cause structural degradation. Intercalation, on the other hand, can lead to exfoliation, where layers of graphite separate and peel away, damaging the graphite. Protective coatings can enhance graphite's resistance to intercalation. Graphite generally exhibits good chemical stability in molten salt environments, though it can corrode under specific conditions, particularly in the presence of impurities or oxidants. Studies have shown that protective coatings, such as plasma-sprayed partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ), can effectively prevent such degradation. Corrosion behavior varies significantly with different graphite grades and coating applications, underscoring the need for detailed studies on uncoated and coated graphite to understand and mitigate corrosion mechanisms in MSRs. Research indicates that the presence of oxidants and impurities can accelerate graphite degradation in molten salts, making it essential to explore acceptable impurity limits. Oxidation is another critical degradation mechanism, leading to weight loss and structural damage due to the formation of CO and CO 2 from the reaction of carbon atoms with oxygen. This process creates new porosity and compromises graphite's integrity. While extensive research on graphite oxidation has been conducted for gas-cooled reactors, studies specific to MSRs are limited. Findings from the coal industry suggest that molten alkali metal salts can significantly accelerate graphite oxidation, a hypothesis worth exploring for fluoride salts in MSRs. Understanding oxidation behavior in MSRs is vital for developing protective measures. The analysis of post-irradiated graphite from the MSRE experiment demonstrated exceptional chemical compatibility with molten fluoride salt, suggesting that the extent of chemical attack on graphite largely depends on the salt's infiltration capability. Therefore, the use of ultra-fine grade graphite could help mitigate chemical degradation effects. Existing oxidation modeling capabilities in Grizzly, which use reaction-diffusion equations to model graphite-air interactions, could be adapted to simulate the chemical degradation effects of graphite in molten salt environments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Securing The Future: 2026 Manufacturing & Critical Infrastructure Threat Landscape

This report outlines the current state of manufacturing weaknesses introduced by the complexities of modern environments, including cloud services and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with particular attention paid to the unique vulnerabilities encountered by SMMs. It also highlights CyManII’s strategic initiatives and collaborative solutions to mitigate these risks and strengthen the cybersecurity posture of the manufacturing ecosystem. Utilizing data from 2025 to inform forward-looking mitigation strategies, this report provides manufacturers with a clear understanding of both current and emerging cybersecurity threats, as well as practical opportunities to strengthen their cyber ecosystems. The following sections detail key vulnerabilities and threat vectors, along with actionable mitigation strategies, many of which have been developed or piloted through CyManII-led efforts. A thorough understanding of these risks and mitigation strategies is essential for manufacturers seeking to strengthen the security and resilience of their manufacturing operations.

3D Printing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficiently improving the performance of noisy quantum computers

Using near-term quantum computers to achieve a quantum advantage requires efficient strategies to improve the performance of the noisy quantum devices presently available. We develop and experimentally validate two efficient error mitigation protocols named "Noiseless Output Extrapolation" and "Pauli Error Cancellation" that can drastically enhance the performance of quantum circuits composed of noisy cycles of gates. By combining popular mitigation strategies such as probabilistic error cancellation and noise amplification with efficient noise reconstruction methods, our protocols can mitigate a wide range of noise processes that do not satisfy the assumptions underlying existing mitigation protocols, including non-local and gate-dependent processes. We test our protocols on a four-qubit superconducting processor at the Advanced Quantum Testbed. We observe significant improvements in the performance of both structured and random circuits, with up to 86 % improvement in variation distance over the unmitigated outputs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocols, as well as their practicality for current hardware platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: Land-based climate solutions for the United States

Meeting end-of-century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature-based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature-based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the U.S. that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non-forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid-century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature-based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom-up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost-effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of reforestation. Results show a conservative end-of-century mitigation capacity of 110 (57 – 178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature-based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE): a study of broadband radiometric measurements under icing conditions in the Arctic

Abstract. Surface-based measurements of broadband shortwave (solar) and longwave (infrared) radiative fluxes using thermopile radiometers are made regularly around the globe for scientific and operational environmental monitoring. The occurrence of ice on sensor windows in cold environments – whether snow, rime, or frost – is a common problem that is difficult to prevent as well as difficult to correct in post-processing. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) community recognizes radiometer icing as a major outstanding measurement uncertainty. Towards constraining this uncertainty, the De-Icing Comparison Experiment (D-ICE) was carried out at the NOAA Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, from August 2017 to July 2018. The purpose of D-ICE was to evaluate existing ventilation and heating technologies developed to mitigate radiometer icing. D-ICE consisted of 20 pyranometers and 5 pyrgeometers operating in various ventilator housings alongside operational systems that are part of NOAA's Barrow BSRN station and the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program North Slope of Alaska and Oliktok Point observatories. To detect icing, radiometers were monitored continuously using cameras, with a total of more than 1 million images of radiometer domes archived. Ventilator and ventilator–heater performance overall was skillful with the average of the systems mitigating ice formation 77 % (many >90 %) of the time during which icing conditions were present. Ventilators without heating elements were also effective and capable of providing heat through roughly equal contributions of waste energy from the ventilator fan and adiabatic heating downstream of the fan. This provided ∼0.6 ∘C of warming, enough to subsaturate the air up to a relative humidity (with respect to ice) of ∼105 %. Because the mitigation technologies performed well, a near complete record of verified ice-free radiometric fluxes was assembled for the duration of the campaign. This well-characterized data set is suitable for model evaluation, in particular for the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) first Special Observing Period (SOP1). We used the data set to calculate short- and long-term biases in iced sensors, finding that biases can be up to +60 W m−2 (longwave) and −211 to +188 W m−2 (shortwave). However, because of the frequency of icing, mitigation of ice by ventilators, cloud conditions, and the timing of icing relative to available sunlight, the biases in the monthly means were generally less than the aggregate uncertainty attributed to other conventional sources in both the shortwave and longwave.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for controlling an industrial asset in the presence of a cyber-attack

Systems and methods are provided for the control of an industrial asset, such as a power generating asset. Accordingly, a cyber-attack model predicts a plurality of operational impacts on the industrial asset resulting from a plurality of potential cyber-attacks. The cyber-attack model also predicts a corresponding plurality of potential mitigation responses. In operation, a cyber-attack impacting at least one component of the industrial asset is detected via the cyber-attack neutralization module and a protected operational impact of the cyber-attack is identified based on the cyber-attack model. The cyber-attack neutralization module selects at least one mitigation response of the plurality of mitigation responses based on the predicted operational impact and an operating state of the industrial asset is altered based on the selected mitigation response.

D'Amato, Fernando Javier↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calculating Potential Radiological Emissions for Waste Management Activities at INL - 20068

At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), work involving radionuclides is evaluated for potential emissions from a project in order to comply with the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) regulations, 40 CFR 61 Subpart H. Emission calculations are documented in an Air Permitting Applicability Determination (APAD) to analyze unmitigated and mitigated emissions and determine if an Application to Construct (ATC) or continuous monitoring is required. To calculate the unmitigated and mitigated emissions, a spreadsheet was developed to provide ease in determining potential emissions by providing the maximum operating temperature and the material being used. The spreadsheet aids in determining the potential emissions for research projects and waste management activities at Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) and other locations across the INL site. Furthermore, it can also be used for periodic confirmatory measurements (PCM) to justify low emissions. Elements that factor into the unmitigated and mitigated calculations include the amount of each radionuclide used (in curies or grams), specific activity (if amount is given in grams), the temperature the material is heated to in Celsius, the dose conversion factor which is derived from Clean Air Act Assessment Package - 1988 (CAP-88) modeling, and the number of HEPA filters used for mitigated measures. The main drivers for calculating the unmitigated emissions for a project are the amount used per radionuclide, the maximum operating temperature, and the location of the work. The maximum operating temperature determines the airborne release factor which is dependent on the physical state of the radionuclide. Prior to October 2017, if the radionuclide was heated to greater than 100 deg. C, the radionuclide was assumed to be a gas, which has the highest airborne release factor. This assumption would be overly conservative for radionuclides with high melting and boiling points, which provided a challenge to demonstrate low emissions. In October 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved an alternative method for INL. This method allows the airborne release factor to be determined by using the melting point and 90% of the boiling point of the radionuclide. This methodology was included in the spreadsheet to allow unmitigated emission calculations for APADs to be completed more efficiently and effectively. Results show a reduction in time completing air emission calculations as well as lower total emissions across all facilities at INL. MFC annual emissions were reduced by 62% from the previous year and Research and Education Campus (REC) facilities were reduced by 38% due to implementation of the approved alternative method. Time spent on APADs, PCMs, and documentation for the annual NESHAP report was also reduced significantly. The spreadsheet provided in Table I provides the potential emission calculations for the 'Advanced Retrieval and Disposition Techniques for Remote Handled Mixed Low Level Waste (RH MLLW) at the Radioactive Scrap and Waste Facility (RSWF)' project. Calculations show the Potential Effective Dose Equivalent (PEDE) at RSWF to be 7.27 E-04 mrem/yr (7.27 E-09 Sv/yr) which is well below the 0.1 mrem/yr threshold. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Real-Time ANPC Inverter Digital Twin with Integrated Design-For-Trust

The demand for renewable energy has increased over the last few years, and so has the demand for greater expectations within the energy market. This increasing trend has been accompanied by more significant usage of internet-connected devices (IoT), leading to critical electrical infrastructure being connected to the internet. Implementing internet connectivity with such devices and systems provides benefits such as improving the system's performance, facilitating irregularity and anomaly mitigation, and providing additional situational awareness for enhanced decision-making. However, enhancing the connected system with IoT introduces a drawback – a greater vulnerability to cyber-attacks. Cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure in the electrical sector have occurred in the United States and Ukraine. These cyber-attacks highlight and expose vulnerabilities that a system inherits when connecting to the internet. These attacks left thousands of customers without electricity for hours until operators could regain control of the electric utility grid. Therefore, to address the vulnerabilities of an internet-connected power electronic device, this work focused on the hardware layer of the system. Implementing a cyber-control system inside the hardware layer can significantly reduce the possibility of an attacker patching malicious controller firmware into a photovoltaic grid-connected inverter, thus mitigating the likelihood that the inverter becomes inactive a cyber-attack scenario. With this mitigation technique, if a cyberattack is successful and an attacker gains control of the network, a cyber-defense technique is in place to mitigate the impact of the cyber-attack. This additional protection layer was developed based on an innovative concept known as Digital Twin (DT). A DT, in this case, replicates an Active-Neutral Point Clamped (ANPC) inverter and was designed using a hardware language known as VHDL (Very High-Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware Description Language) and applied to Field-Programmable-GateArray (FPGA). The DT is embedded within the FPGA and contained in a controller board, the UCB (Unified Controller Board), developed by the University of Arkansas electrical engineering team. This UCB also contains two Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) responsible for generating associated signals to control an authentic physical inverter. These DSP signals are received and processed by the FPGA that implements the DT of an ANPC; in other words, it simulates in realtime the expected output of an actual ANPC inverter using the signals from the DSP. When a new firmware is ready to be patched, the DT provides output signals simulating behavior that a real ANPC inverter would generate with the new firmware. The new firmware is tested to check if it meets all the operational requirements established using a Design-For-Trust technique (DFTr). If the new firmware fails in at least one of the DFT tests, it is considered malicious and must be rejected. This work is divided into sections, such as Background, which explains the pieces that were used and the strategy behind this work; Process and Procedure, which explains the methodology that was adopted to prove the reliability and effectiveness of this work; Results and Discussion, where the simulations and results are described and explained; followed by Conclusion and Future work section, which concludes this work and adds possible future projects to continue this work further.

do Amaral Custodio, Paulo Vitor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing Cost‐Effective Carbon Payments to Induce Cellulosic Feedstock Production for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Perennial bioenergy crops, such as miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues have the potential to scale up sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and mitigate carbon emissions. However, high establishment costs, delayed returns, and risk–return profiles that diverge from those of conventional crops can hinder incentives to adopt bioenergy crops. We develop an economic model that incorporates spatially varying joint yield and price distributions for the multiple crop choices a farmer faces and apply it to examine the incentives for risk-averse, present-biased, and credit-constrained farmers to produce cellulosic feedstocks under various biomass prices. We link this model to a biogeochemical model to quantify the spatially varying carbon mitigation benefits from these feedstocks in the rainfed region of the United States. We also analyze the cost-effectiveness of two carbon payment policies: annual and upfront. We find that risk-averse, present-biased, or credit-constrained farmers prefer to grow the lower-yielding but less risky switchgrass and harvest corn stover instead of the lower carbon, higher-yielding but riskier feedstock miscanthus, resulting in lower SAF production. Upfront carbon payments incentivize higher quantities of less carbon-intensive SAF production by risk-averse, credit-constrained, and present-biased farmers because they offset a part of the establishment costs of miscanthus. We also find that when farmers are credit-constrained, upfront payments are more cost-effective in terms of carbon mitigation per dollar spent. In contrast, annual payments are more cost-effective when farmers can access credit.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimated capital costs of fish exclusion technologies for hydropower facilities

Hydropower is a reliable source of renewable energy, and its future expansion is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development (NSD) projects or powering existing non-powered dams. Thresholds for entrainment risk to fish and the requirements for fish exclusion at hydropower facilities often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders, but little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion measures. Cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening were identified using keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 p.m.&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens and represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with NSD projects. Results indicate highly variable costs are associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1–2 in.). These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO 2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trade-off Analysis of Operational Technologies to Advance Cyber Resilience through Automated and Autonomous Response to Threats

The advancement of cyber resilience requires a preliminary stage of characterizing the trade-off space of mitigation options and how these might affect the stability and determinism of an operational technology (OT). This first step will set the stage for the proper cyber-secure and cyber-resilient design and confirm the affects that can be considered and approved by the OT and the security groups. To provide a baseline for this discussion, this paper provides a consideration of the cyberphysical interactions, possible mitigation steps against certain attacks and their corresponding affects that lend to the security design planning and evaluation process. As an integral part of the proposed scheme this work introduces the concept of systemwide fuzzer, i.e., a tool that manipulates the system state in an effort to determine mitigation response sequences that minimize detriments and maximize benefit in accordance with specified operational requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

PacWave South SeaRAY k2 Risk Registers

The SeaRAY is a deployable power system for maritime sensors, monitoring equipment, communications, unmanned underwater vehicles, and other similar payloads. This project is to design, deliver, and test a prototype low-power WEC that lowers the total cost of ownership and provides robust, new capabilities for customers in the maritime environment. Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is conducted to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the system, and to analyze the criticality of each risk based on the likelihood of the event and the severity of the impact. Actions may then be recommended to mitigate the criticality of a risk, either by reducing the likelihood of the risk or the severity of its impact. Risk assessment is executed iteratively as an integral part of the design process. By incorporating risk assessment early in the development cycle, mitigation of risk can be achieved cost effectively. The actions recommended to mitigate risk may be subsequently executed, and as the design progresses the risk assessment is reviewed and revised. Review of the risk assessment is integrated into structured design reviews, ensuring that critical risks are comprehended and that the Project will not progress to e.g. fabrication while intolerable risks remain. The risk assessment process results in the population and maintenance of Risk Registers (RRs). Each major system (and as needed, subsystem) will have a distinct RR. This allows each system or subsystem to be assessed individually, rendering the RRs to a manageable size for review.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Cleaning Cathodes for Endurance to Chromium Poisoning

Chromium (Cr) poisoning remains a significant issue in long-term solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) operation. While the addition of Cr in the interconnect and balance-of-plant (BOP) materials is effective in improving their resistance to oxidation, it also causes the deposition of resistive phases in the air electrode and thus cell performance loss. Previous work has investigated the mitigation of chromium deposition using getters, Cr diffusion resistant coatings, and more chromium-tolerant air electrode materials. However, these mitigation strategies merely postpone the degradation of performance due to Cr poisoning. Additionally, some strategies require the replacement of components, e.g., use of getters. Here we investigated a new, in-situ Cr poisoning mitigation strategy.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗