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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Seasonal grassland productivity forecast for the U.S. Great Plains using Grass–Cast

Every spring, ranchers in the drought-prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge —trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass-Cast, to provide science-informed estimates of growing season above ground net primary production (ANPP). Grass-Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite-derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below-normal, near-normal, or above-normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass-Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger scale decision-making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass-Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass-Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real-time 8-d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass-Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid-April for the Southern Great Plains and mid-May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass-Cast along with the county-level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end-of growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass-Cast end-of-growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20-yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass-Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript modeling microbial regulation of priming effects

This data package is associated with the publication “Modeling Microbial Regulatory Feedback in Organic Matter Decomposition Identifies Copiotrophic Traits as Key Drivers of Positive Priming” published as a preprint on BioRXiv by Ahamed et al. (2026); https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.08.11.607483. The package contains MATLAB scripts and saved simulation outputs used to implement a cybernetic model of microbial regulation during complex organic matter (OM) decomposition governing priming effects. It includes models of (i) single microbial functional groups (copiotrophic or oligotrophic degraders) and (ii) binary consortia composed of degraders and non-degraders with contrasting or common growth traits. Simulation results were generated using Monte Carlo analyses, with randomized key model parameters across a range of environmental mixing fractions of complex and labile OM. The dataset was created to provide a transparent and reusable computational framework for systematically exploring how microbial growth traits, metabolic regulation, and community composition influence OM decomposition dynamics and priming effects. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes the variable definitions. This package includes: (1) annotated MATLAB code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws; (2) saved output files containing data (e.g., biomass, substrates, enzyme levels, priming metrics); and (3) scripts for processing saved outputs and regenerating figures. Specifically, the data package contains three main MATLAB scripts: runPrimingModel.m, runPlotData.m, and runPlotSuppFigS1.m, along with this readme and supporting documentation. Users should begin with runPrimingModel.m, which contains the annotated code implementing the system of ordinary differential equations and cybernetic control laws. This script runs the Monte Carlo simulations of microbial OM decomposition and allows users to modify microbial trait definitions, adjust parameter distributions, or define new community configurations. Simulation outputs are automatically saved as .mat files in the folder named SavedData, which stores all pre-generated results included in this package. The second script, runPlotData.m, reads files from the SavedData folder and processes them to regenerate the figures presented in the manuscript. The third script, runPlotSuppFigS1.m, specifically generates Figure S1 in the Supplementary Material of the manuscript. The package also includes the aforementioned files in non-proprietary .txt format. If users intend to use them, they should first save the files in their respective .m or .mat formats prior to execution in MATLAB.

Biomass concentration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time, Adaptive Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification Using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

Spectroscopic anomaly detection and isotope identification algorithms are integral components in nuclear nonproliferation applications such as search operations. The task is especially challenging in the case of mobile detector systems because the observed gamma-ray background changes more than for a static detector system, and a pretrained background model can easily find itself out of domain. The result is that algorithms may exceed their intended false alarm rate or sacrifice detection sensitivity to maintain the desired false alarm rate. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful tool for spectral anomaly detection and identification, but, like many similar algorithms that rely on data-driven background models, in its conventional implementation, it is unable to update in real time to account for environmental changes that affect the background spectroscopic signature. Here, we have developed a novel NMF-based algorithm that periodically updates its background model to accommodate changing environmental conditions. The adaptive NMF algorithm involves fewer assumptions about its environment, making it more generalizable than existing NMF-based methods while maintaining or exceeding detection performance on simulated and real-world datasets.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part II: Case Studies

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861 ). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the 0.25° of CM4X‐p25 to the 0.125° of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Modeling and Simulation of a Parallel Hybrid-Electric Propulsion System - Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) Program

Electrified aircraft propulsion concepts have been proposed to meet aggressive future performance and environmental goals for the next generation of aircraft. However, electrified aircraft present a unique modeling and simulation challenge as they introduce multiple energy sources to the propulsion system, providing various means to meet thrust requirements, compared to conventional gas turbine propulsion architectures where only fuel is available. Additionally, the introduction of an electric powertrain to the existing system enables multiple electrified flight modes to exist (i.e. eTaxi, climb boost, takeoff boost, etc.), further increasing the complexity of the modeling environment. As part of the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration program, this paper presents a modeling and simulation framework for a parallel hybrid-electric propulsion concept using the Environmental Design Space simulation tool. Electrical components are modeled in NPSS, and an overall sizing methodology is introduced. Finally, various operational modes of the electric powertrain are modeled and tested and their impact on key performance parameters is evaluated.

hybrid electric propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate under dynamically changing conditions, which often lead to data distribution drifts. These drifts pose significant challenges for Machine Learning (ML) models, which typically fail to maintain performance when faced with such non-stationary data. In particle accelerators, the primary sources of these data drifts include changes in accelerator settings and non-measured parameters such as machine degradation and environmental factors. Previous research has proposed conditional models to handle multiple beam configurations effectively; however, it is challenging to train the ML models on all possible configuration settings. Additionally, conditional models alone can not address performance degradation caused by drifts due to non-measured factors. These limitations contribute to a significant gap between ML development and its deployment in real-world operational settings. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. In addition, we present a practical use case where a conditional Auto-Encoder model coupled with memory-based continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance even when underlying data drifts.

Schram, Malachi [Thomas Jefferson National Acceler↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate under dynamically changing conditions, which often lead to data distribution drifts. These drifts pose significant challenges for Machine Learning (ML) models, which typically fail to maintain performance when faced with such non-stationary data. In particle accelerators, the primary sources of these data drifts include changes in accelerator settings and non-measured parameters such as machine degradation and environmental factors. Previous research has proposed conditional models to handle multiple beam configurations effectively; however, it is challenging to train the ML models on all possible configuration settings. Additionally, conditional models alone can not address performance degradation caused by drifts due to non-measured factors. These limitations contribute to a significant gap between ML development and its deployment in real-world operational settings. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. In addition, we present a practical use case where a conditional Auto-Encoder model coupled with memory-based continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance even when underlying data drifts

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defining the scope for altering rice leaf anatomy to improve photosynthesis: a modelling approach

Summary Leaf structure plays an important role in photosynthesis. However, the causal relationship and the quantitative importance of any single structural parameter to the overall photosynthetic performance of a leaf remains open to debate. In this paper, we report on a mechanistic model, eLeaf, which successfully captures rice leaf photosynthetic performance under varying environmental conditions of light and CO 2 . We developed a 3D reaction‐diffusion model for leaf photosynthesis parameterised using a range of imaging data and biochemical measurements from plants grown under ambient and elevated CO 2 and then interrogated the model to quantify the importance of these elements. The model successfully captured leaf‐level photosynthetic performance in rice. Photosynthetic metabolism underpinned the majority of the increased carbon assimilation rate observed under elevated CO 2 levels, with a range of structural elements making positive and negative contributions. Mesophyll porosity could be varied without any major outcome on photosynthetic performance, providing a theoretical underpinning for experimental data. eLeaf allows quantitative analysis of the influence of morphological and biochemical properties on leaf photosynthesis. The analysis highlights a degree of leaf structural plasticity with respect to photosynthesis of significance in the context of attempts to improve crop photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Two Community Noise Models Applied to a NASA Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicle

Predictions of community noise exposure from a NASA urban air mobility (UAM) concept vehicle have been conducted for representative operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) in order to demonstrate modeling tool interoperability and assess applicability, capabilities and limitations of integrated noise modeling tools. To both quantify limitations and highlight other capabilities, a comparative analysis is performed using a time-domain simulation method, in particular, using the Volpe Advanced Acoustic Model (AAM). Using the same source noise model, the 3D directivity of a UAM concept vehicle is predicted in terms of aeroacoustic pressure time histories at a sphere of observer positions near the vehicle. In addition to distilling those data to a set of noise-power-distance data for input to AEDT, the data are processed preserving spectral directivity, into one-third and one-twelfth octave bands for input to AAM. Results from AEDT and AAM modeling are provided for a variety of metrics to demonstrate the effect that source noise directivity and propagation modeling fidelity have on predicted results at receptors over a study area.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Two Community Noise Models Applied to a NASA Urban Air Mobility Concept Vehicle

Predictions of community noise exposure from a NASA urban air mobility (UAM) concept vehicle have been conducted for representative operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) in order to demonstrate modeling tool interoperability and assess applicability, capabilities and limitations of integrated noise modeling tools. To both quantify limitations and highlight other capabilities, a comparative analysis is performed using a time-domain simulation method, in particular, using the Volpe Advanced Acoustic Model (AAM). Using the same source noise model, the 3D directivity of a UAM concept vehicle is predicted in terms of aeroacoustic pressure time histories at a sphere of observer positions near the vehicle. In addition to distilling those data to a set of noise-power-distance data for input to AEDT, the data are processed preserving spectral directivity, into one-third and one-twelfth octave bands for input to AAM. Results from AEDT and AAM modeling are provided for a variety of metrics to demonstrate the effect that source noise directivity and propagation modeling fidelity have on predicted results at receptors over a study area.

urban air mobility↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Finer Details: Climate Modeling

If you want to know whether you will need sunscreen or an umbrella for tomorrow's picnic, you can simply read the local weather report. However, if you are calculating the impact of gas combustion on global temperatures, or anticipating next year's rainfall levels to set water conservation policy, you must conduct a more comprehensive investigation. Such complex matters require long-range modeling techniques that predict broad trends in climate development rather than day-to-day details. Climate models are built from equations that calculate the progression of weather-related conditions over time. Based on the laws of physics, climate model equations have been developed to predict a number of environmental factors, for example: 1. Amount of solar radiation that hits the Earth. 2. Varying proportions of gases that make up the air. 3. Temperature at the Earth's surface. 4. Circulation of ocean and wind currents. 5. Development of cloud cover. Numerical modeling of the climate can improve our understanding of both the past and, the future. A model can confirm the accuracy of environmental measurements taken. in, the past and can even fill in gaps in those records. In addition, by quantifying the relationship between different aspects of climate, scientists can estimate how a future change in one aspect may alter the rest of the world. For example, could an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean somehow set off a drought on the other side of the world? A computer simulation could lead to an answer for this and other questions. Quantifying the chaotic, nonlinear activities that shape our climate is no easy matter. You cannot run these simulations on your desktop computer and expect results by the time you have finished checking your morning e-mail. Efficient and accurate climate modeling requires powerful computers that can process billions of mathematical calculations in a single second. The NCCS exists to provide this degree of vast computing capability.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progress and Challenges in Quantifying Wildfire Smoke Emissions, Their Properties, Transport, and Atmospheric Impacts

Wildfire is a natural and integral ecosystem process that is necessary to maintain species composition, structure, and ecosystem function. Extreme fires have been increasing over the last decades, which have a substantial impact on air quality, human health, the environment, and climate systems. Smoke aerosols can be transported over large distances, acting as pollutants that affect adjacent and distant downwind communities and environments. Fire emissions are a complicated mixture of trace gases and aerosols, many of which are short‐lived and chemically reactive, and this mixture affects atmospheric composition in complex ways that are not completely understood. We present a review of the current state of knowledge of smoke aerosol emissions originating from wildfires. Satellite observations, from both passive and active instruments, are critical to providing the ability to view the large‐scale influence of fire, smoke, and their impacts. Progress in the development of fire emission estimates to regional and global chemical transport models has advanced, although significant challenges remain, such as connecting ecosystems and fuels burned with dependent atmospheric chemistry. Knowledge of the impact of smoke on radiation, clouds, and precipitation has progressed and is an essential topical research area. However, current measurements and parameterizations are not adequate to describe the impacts on clouds of smoke particles (e.g., CNN, INP) from fire emissions in the range of representative environmental conditions necessary to advance science or modeling. We conclude by providing recommendations to the community that we believe will advance the science and understanding of the impact of fire smoke emissions on human and environmental health, as well as feedback with climate system.

I N Sokolik↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing long-term monitoring of radiation air-dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. Therefore, for the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (–0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic modal velocity field in rough-wall turbulence

Stochastically generated instantaneous velocity profiles are used to reproduce the outer region of rough-wall turbulent boundary layers in a range of Reynolds numbers extending from the wind tunnel to field conditions. Each profile consists in a sequence of steps, defined by the modal velocities and representing uniform momentum zones (UMZs), separated by velocity jumps representing the internal shear layers. Height-dependent UMZ is described by a minimal set of attributes: thickness, mid-height elevation, and streamwise (modal) and vertical velocities. These are informed by experimental observations and reproducing the statistical behaviour of rough-wall turbulence and attached eddy scaling, consistent with the corresponding experimental datasets. Sets of independently generated profiles are reorganized in the streamwise direction to form a spatially consistent modal velocity field, starting from any randomly selected profile. The operation allows one to stretch or compress the velocity field in space, increases the size of the domain and adjusts the size of the largest emerging structures to the Reynolds number of the simulated flow. By imposing the autocorrelation function of the modal velocity field to be anchored on the experimental measurements, we obtain a physically based spatial resolution, which is employed in the computation of the velocity spectrum, and second-order structure functions. The results reproduce the Kolmogorov inertial range extending from the UMZ and their attached-eddy vertical organization to the very-large-scale motions (VLSMs) introduced with the reordering process. The dynamic role of VLSM is confirmed in the –u'w' co-spectra and in their vertical derivative, representing a scale-dependent pressure gradient contribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atomic Origin of the Autocatalytic Reduction of Monoclinic CuO in a Hydrogen Atmosphere

Reducibility is key for the use of bulk metal oxides in chemical transformation involving redox reactions but probing microscopic processes of oxide reduction is challenging. This is because the insulating nature of bulk oxides restricts ion and electron spectroscopic measurements of oxide surfaces. Herein, using a combination of environmental transmission electron microscopy and atomistic modeling, we report direct in-situ atomic-scale observations of the surface and subsurface dynamics and show that the hydrogen induced CuO reduction occurs via the surface decay of Cu-O/Cu bilayer atomic steps, formation of partially reduced CuO superstructure by the self-ordering of O vacancies in the subsurface, and collapse of Cu-O layers in the bulk. In this work, all these substeps can be traced back to the progressively increased concentration and activity of O vacancies in the surface and subsurface of the oxide, thereby leading to the self-accelerated oxide reduction. These results demonstrate the microscopic details that may have broader applicability in modulating various redox processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗