A Scalable Approach to Large Scale Risk-Averse Distribution Grid Expansion Planning
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The distribution utility industry and its engineers are experiencing monumental shifts in consumer needs and expectations. Characterizing future native loads as compared to net load demand for long-term capacity planning is especially difficult, as consumers are increasingly adopting prosumer technologies. This paper is the culmination of 5 months of utility interviews coordinated by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) and Kevala, Inc. (Kevala) to better understand distribution capacity planning challenges. The interviews covered all aspects of capacity planning including load and DER forecasting, criteria for assessing system constraints, solution types, and organizational and decision-making structures. Our intent is to provide insight into distribution capacity planning decision support needs for utilities and the increasing number of stakeholders involved, from state and regulatory agencies to community and solution providers with interest in increasing their understanding in the distribution capacity planning process.
To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.
The Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model is an infrastructure planning optimization model that can guide hydrogen production, delivery, and end-use investment decisions and accelerate the adoption of low-cost hydrogen at scale, whether for fuel cell electric vehicles or non-transportation applications. In this talk, we will review the SERA model objective function as well as the data inputs and outputs. We will also look at a SERA case study identifying potential dispensed costs of hydrogen along major refueling corridors throughout the United States. In addition to the SERA model, Justin will also discuss his recent work for the Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains on electrolyzer supply chain readiness, and his work for the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies Office and Environmental Protection Agency on the levelized cost of dispensed hydrogen for heavy-duty trucking.
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Recent episodes of natural disasters have challenged the resilience of power grids. Adequate distribution grid planning that properly captures the risk aversion of the utility system planner is a key factor to increase the flexibility of distribution networks to circumvent these events. In this paper, we propose a methodology to determine the optimal portfolio of investments in lines and storage devices in order to minimize a convex combination between expected value and CVaR of operational costs, including energy not served, while taking into account the multistage nature of the energy storage management within this context. While the expected value of energy not served has been traditionally employed to tackle routine failures, we also minimize the CVaR of energy not served to address high-impact, low-probability (HILP) events. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology with a 54-Bus system test case.
The Fusarium oxysporum species complex (FOSC) includes both plant and human pathogens that cause devastating plant vascular wilt diseases and threaten public health. Each F. oxysporum genome comprises core chromosomes (CCs) for housekeeping functions and accessory chromosomes (ACs) that contribute to host-specific adaptation. This study inspects global transcription factor profiles (TFomes) and their potential roles in coordinating CC and AC functions to accomplish host-specific interactions. Remarkably, we found a clear positive correlation between the sizes of TFomes and the proteomes of an organism. With the acquisition of ACs, the FOSC TFomes were larger than the other fungal genomes included in this study. Among a total of 48 classified TF families, 14 families involved in transcription/translation regulations and cell cycle controls were highly conserved. Among the 30 FOSC expanded families, Zn2-C6 and Znf_C2H2 were most significantly expanded to 671 and 167 genes per family including well-characterized homologs of Ftf1 (Zn2-C6) and PacC (Znf_C2H2) that are involved in host-specific interactions. Manual curation of characterized TFs increased the TFome repertoires by 3% including a disordered protein Ren1. RNA-Seq revealed a steady pattern of expression for conserved TF families and specific activation for AC TFs. Functional characterization of these TFs could enhance our understanding of transcriptional regulation involved in FOSC cross-kingdom interactions, disentangle species-specific adaptation, and identify targets to combat diverse diseases caused by this group of fungal pathogens.
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Low temperature measurements of length- temperature curves of polyethylene, polypropylene, mixtures of polyethylene and polypropylene, and copolymers
The purpose of this paper will be to examine a specific but important subset of magnetic storms, those that are caused by large southward, smoothly rotating magnetic fields: interplanetary magnetic clouds.
Presentation on the transition in 4He in the presence of a heat current (Q) provides an ideal system for the study of phase transitions under non-equlibrium, dynamical conditions. Many physical properties become nonlinear and Q-dependant near the transition temperature, T_Lambada.
The NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division enables advances in high-end computing technologies and in modeling and simulation methods to tackle some of the toughest science and engineering challenges facing NASA today. The name "NAS" has long been associated with leadership and innovation throughout the high-end computing (HEC) community. We play a significant role in shaping HEC standards and paradigms, and provide leadership in the areas of large-scale InfiniBand fabrics, Lustre open-source filesystems, and hyperwall technologies. We provide an integrated high-end computing environment to accelerate NASA missions and make revolutionary advances in science. Pleiades, a petaflop-scale supercomputer, is used by scientists throughout the U.S. to support NASA missions, and is ranked among the most powerful systems in the world. One of our key focus areas is in modeling and simulation to support NASA's real-world engineering applications and make fundamental advances in modeling and simulation methods.
To date many methods have been developed to expand measured mode shapes from a limited number of sensors up to the full set of degrees of freedom (DOFs) of an analytical FEM model.
This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.
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Abstract Na n MAn 6 F 30 is an extremely versatile framework structure for incorporating tetravalent actinides (An) and cerium along with divalent or trivalent d‐metals (M); moreover, the structure exhibits a high resistance to harsh chemical conditions. This extreme robustness can potentially be exploited for the sequestration of plutonium in a stable matrix; however, no Na n MPu 6 F 30 compounds have been reported so far. Herein, we present four new plutonium fluorides that have been prepared as single crystals by mild hydrothermal synthesis methods. Structural characterizations revealed their compositions to be Na 3 AlPu 6 F 30 , Na 3 FePu 6 F 30 , Na 3 CoPu 6 F 30 , and Na 2.4 Mn 1.6 Pu 6 F 30 . Surprisingly, in the plutonium series, it was found that Co 2+ and Mn 2+ precursors oxidized to form Na 3 Co III Pu 6 F 30 and Na 2.4 Mn II/III 1.6 Pu 6 F 30 , whereas the analogous reactions for cerium result in reduction of the transition metal, even when beginning with a M 3+ precursor. While cerium is often used as a surrogate for plutonium, this work serves as an example that deviations between their chemistries do occur.
Abstract Midwestern cities require forecasts of surface nitrate loads to bring additional treatment processes online or activate alternative water supplies. Concurrently, networks of nitrate monitoring stations are being deployed in river basins, co‐locating water quality observations with established stream gauges. However, tools to evaluate the future value of expanded networks to improve water quality forecasts remains challenging. Here, we construct a synthetic data set of stream discharge and nitrate for the Wabash River Basin—one of the United States’ most nutrient polluted basins—using the established Agro‐IBIS and THMB models. Synthetic data enables rapid, unbiased and low‐cost assessment of potential sensor placements to support management objectives, such as near‐term forecasting. Using the synthetic data, we established baseline 1‐day forecasts for surface water nitrate at 12 cities in the basin using support vector machine regression (SVMR; RMSE 0.48–3.3 ppm). Next, we used the SVMRs to evaluate the improvement in forecast performance associated with deployment of additional nitrate sensors. We identified the optimal sensor placement to improve forecasts at each city, and the relative value of sensors at each candidate location. Finally, we assessed the co‐benefit realized by other cities when a sensor is deployed to optimize a forecast at one city, finding significant positive externalities in all cases. Ultimately, our study explores the potential for machine learning to make near‐term predictions and critically evaluate the improvement realized by expanding a monitoring network. While we use nitrate pollution in the Wabash River Basin as a case study, this approach could be readily applied to any problem where the future value of sensors and network design are being evaluated.