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The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework is a tool that can be used by hydropower plant manager to make more educated cybersecurity investments. Users can take a self guided assessment allowing the tools to generate risk, impact and cybersecurity scores and be given risk-based recommendations to enhance decision-making.
Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.
Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.
This paper is not a description per se of the efforts by two software cost analysts. Rather, it is an outline of the methodology used for FSW cost analysis presented in a form that would serve as a foundation upon which others may gain insight into how to perform FSW cost analyses for their own problems at hand.
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Purpose: To perform a national survey of radiation oncologists and urologists about the type of resources used and the level of evidence needed to change clinical practice in localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: From a random sample, 1422 physicians were mailed a survey assessing the types of information used and what level of evidence could alter their clinical practice in prostate cancer. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify differences in physician characteristics for each outcome. Results: Survey response rates were similar for radiation oncologists and urologists (44% vs 46%; P=.46). Specialty-specific journals represented the most commonly used resource for informing the clinical practice for radiation oncologists (65%) and urologists (70%). Relative to radiation oncologists, urologists were less likely to report utilizing top-tier medical journals (25% vs 39%; adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.50; P=.01) or cancer journals (22% vs 51%; adjusted OR 0.50; P<.001) but more likely to rely on clinical guidelines (46% vs 38%; adjusted OR 1.6; P=.006). Both radiation oncologists and urologists most commonly reported large randomized, clinical trials as the level of evidence to change treatment recommendations for localized prostate cancer (85% vs 77%; P=.009). Conclusions: Both specialties rely on their own specialty-specific journals and view randomized, clinical trials as the level of evidence needed to change clinical practice. Our study provides a context on meaningful ways of disseminating evidence for localized prostate cancer.
Screening large pools of molecular candidates to identify those with specific design criteria or targeted properties is demanding in various science and engineering domains. While a high-throughput virtual screening (HTVS) pipeline can provide efficient means to achieving this goal, its design and operation often rely on experts' intuition, potentially resulting in suboptimal performance. In this paper, we fill this critical gap by presenting a systematic framework that can maximize the return on computational investment (ROCI) of such HTVS campaigns. Based on various scenarios, we empirically validate the proposed framework and demonstrate its potential to accelerate scientific discoveries through optimal computational campaigns, especially in the context of virtual screening.
One of the most important factors in the operations of many cooperations today is to maximize profit and one important tool to that effect is the optimization of maintenance activities. Maintenance activities is at the largest level divided into two major areas, corrective maintenance (CM) and preventive maintenance (PM). When optimizing maintenance activities, by a maintenance plan or policy, we seek to find the best activities to perform at each point in time, be it PM or CM. We explore the use of stochastic simulation, genetic algorithms and other tools for solving complex maintenance planning optimization problems in terms of a suggested framework model based on discrete event simulation.
Stochastic fluctuations in the expression of genes allow a cell to exhibit a kind of free will.
Here, we proposed the tensor-input tree (TT) method for scalar-on-tensor and tensor-on-tensor regression problems. We first address scalar-on-tensor problem by proposing scalar-output regression tree models whose input variables are tensors (i.e., multi-way arrays). We devised and implemented fast randomized and deterministic algorithms for efficient fitting of scalar-on-tensor trees, making TT competitive against tensor-input GP models (Yu, Li, and Liu; Sun et al.). Based on scalar-on-tensor tree models, we extend our method to tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches. Theoretical justification and extensive experiments, including testing robustness to entrywise input tensor noise, are provided on real and synthetic datasets to illustrate the performance of TT. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/hrluo/TensorDecisionTreeRegressor. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
The signal processing concept of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), in its role as a performance measure, is recast within the more general context of information theory, leading to a series of useful insights. Establishing generalized SNR (GSNR) as a rigorous information theoretic measure inherent in any set of observations significantly strengthens its quantitative performance pedigree while simultaneously providing a specific definition under general conditions. This directly leads to consideration of the log likelihood ratio (LLR): first, as the simplest possible information-preserving transformation (i.e., signal processing algorithm) and subsequently, as an absolute, comparable measure of information for any specific observation exemplar. Furthermore, the information accounting methodology that results permits practical use of both GSNR and LLR as diagnostic scalar performance measurements, directly comparable across alternative system/algorithm designs, applicable at any tap point within any processing string, in a form that is also comparable with the inherent performance bounds due to information conservation.
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