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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical estimation of weather-driven yield shocks using biophysical characteristics for U.S. rainfed and irrigated maize, soybeans, and winter wheat

Agricultural yields are highly susceptible to changes in weather system patterns, including both annual and sub-annual changes in temperature and precipitation. Understanding the impacts of future changes in meteorological variables on crop yields have been widely studied in both empirical and process-based models. This work presents a structural econometric approach that combines historical weather data with information about the biophysical growth cycles of maize, winter wheat, and soy to predict the year-to-year yield responses for rainfed crops. Modeled soil moisture and temperature are taken as key predictors, which allows testing the fitted rainfed model’s ability to predict irrigated yields by assuming irrigation produces the numerically optimal level of soil moisture. This approach is grounded in known biophysical processes, which improves confidence in the model predictions. It produces estimates of interannual variability in yields, which enable study of the effects of extreme events on agricultural productivity. Finally, it enables prediction of the potential impacts of changing weather patterns on irrigated crops in areas that are currently primarily rainfed. We present the results of the empirical model, fitted with rainfed data; out-of-sample validation on irrigated crops; and projections of yield shocks under multiple future climate scenarios. Under a bias-corrected GFDL RCP8.5 scenario, this approach predicts average yield change, relative to 2006-2020 average yields, across U.S. counties in the 2040-2060 period of -16.9% and -13.4% for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -19.1% and -18.4% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -4.0% and -2.0% for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat. And in the 2070-2090 period of -30.3% and -28.8 % for rainfed and irrigated maize, of -33.1% and -32.8% for rainfed and irrigated soy, and of -6.5% and -5.2%for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of the Geospace Response to the Arrival of an Idealized Perfect Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorial values as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator. values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low as magnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify the response. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sub‐0.6 eV Inverted Metamorphic GaInAs Cells Grown on Inp and GaAs Substrates for Thermophotovoltaics and Laser Power Conversion

Abstract Inverted metamorphic Ga 0.3 In 0.7 As photovoltaic converters with sub‐0.60 eV bandgaps grown on InP and GaAs are presented. Threading dislocation densities are 1.3 ± 0.6 × 10 6 and 8.9 ± 1.7 × 10 6 cm −2 on InP and GaAs, respectively. The devices generate open‐circuit voltages of 0.386 and 0.383 V, respectively, under irradiance producing a short‐circuit current density of ≈10 A cm −2 , yielding bandgap‐voltage offsets of 0.20 and 0.21 V. Power and broadband reflectance measurements are used to estimate thermophotovoltaic (TPV) efficiency. The InP‐based cell is estimated to yield 1.09 W cm −2 at 1100 °C versus 0.92 W cm −2 for the GaAs‐based cell, with efficiencies of 16.8 versus 9.2%. The efficiencies of both devices are limited by sub‐bandgap absorption, with power weighted sub‐bandgap reflectances of 81% and 58%, respectively, the majority of which is assumed to occur in the graded buffers. The 1100 °C TPV efficiencies are estimated to increase to 24.0% and 20.7% in structures with the graded buffer removed, if previously demonstrated reflectance is achieved. These devices also have application to laser power conversion in the 2.0–2.3 µm atmospheric window. Peak laser power converter efficiencies of 36.8% and 32.5% are estimated under 2.0 µm irradiances of 1.86 and 2.81 W cm −2 , respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rye-soybean double-crop: planting method and N fertilization effects in the North Central US

Double-cropping winter rye cover crops (CC) with soybean in the North Central US could help with the global effort to sustainably intensify agriculture. Studies addressing the management of these systems are limited. Therefore, a field study was conducted from 2017 to 2019 in Central Iowa, US to evaluate winter rye CC biomass production, aboveground N accumulation, estimated economics, estimated within-field energy balance and estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under three N application rates (0, 60, 120 kg N ha –1 ) and three planting methods (pre- and post-harvest broadcast and post-harvest drilling). Averaged over N rates, all planting methods resulted in >5.0 Mg ha –1 year –1 rye aboveground biomass dry matter. Averaged over the 2-year study and compared with unfertilized treatments, applying 60 kg N ha –1 produced 1.1 Mg ha –1 more aboveground biomass (6.1 vs 5.0 Mg ha –1 ), accumulated 30 kg ha –1 more N in aboveground biomass (88 vs 58 kg N ha –1 ), and led to 20 GJ ha –1 more net energy. Biomass production was not significantly higher with 120 kg N ha –1 compared with the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. Even when accounting for an estimated 0.75 Mg ha –1 of above ground rye biomass left in the field after harvesting, more N was removed than applied at the 60 kg N ha –1 rate. The minimum rye prices over the 2-year study needed for double-cropping winter rye CC to be profitable (breakeven prices) averaged $117 and $104 Mg –1 for the 0 and 60 kg N ha –1 rates, which factors in estimated soybean yield reductions in 2019 compared with local averages but not off-site transportation. GHG emissions were estimated to increase approximately threefold between the unfertilized and 60 kg N ha –1 rates without considering bioenergy offsets. While environmental tradeoffs need further study, results suggest harvesting fertilized rye CC biomass before planting soybean is a promising practice for the North Central US to maximize total crop and net energy production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Native bee Pollination Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Wetlands and Riparian Protected Lands

Abstract Many freshwater wetlands and riparian systems are protected within agricultural landscapes. Yet, pollinator ecosystem services are seldom considered key ecosystem services provided by these conservation easements. The purpose of this study is to explore the extent of protected aquatic lands to provide pollination ecosystem services by assessing pollinator abundances, crop yield changes, and value estimations of increased soybean yields from a subset of common native solitary bees. We created a novel geodatabase of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) conservation easements and used this database in the InVEST crop pollination model to model wild solitary bee pollination. We then estimated the monetary value of yield increases provided by pollinators. We found that wetland uplands provided the greatest potential for pollination services for ground nesting bees, followed by herbaceous and forested riparian respectively. Stem nesters preferred forested riparian, then upland habitats. In soybeans fields, we found wild pollinators can provide up to 5.5% yield response from current private aquatic conservation lands. The current landscape is not optimized to use wetlands and riparian conservation lands as pollinator habitat, but these results suggest protected aquatic lands can sustainably increase wild pollination services to agricultural crops if landscapes are managed, protected, and optimized with pollinator services as co-benefit.

Hinson, Audra L. (ORCID:0000000242314820)↗
DOE OSTI2023

OH Roaming and Beyond in the Unimolecular Decay of the Methyl-Ethyl-Substituted Criegee Intermediate: Observations and Predictions

Alkene ozonolysis generates short-lived Criegee intermediates that are a significant source of hydroxyl (OH) radicals. Here this study demonstrates that roaming of the separating OH radicals can yield alternate hydroxycarbonyl products, thereby reducing the OH yield. Specifically, hydroxybutanone has been detected as a stable product arising from roaming in the unimolecular decay of the methyl-ethyl-substituted Criegee intermediate (MECI) under thermal flow cell conditions. The dynamical features of this novel multistage dissociation plus a roaming unimolecular decay process have also been examined with ab initio kinetics calculations. Experimentally, hydroxybutanone isomers are distinguished from the isomeric MECI by their higher ionization threshold and distinctive photoionization spectra. Moreover, the exponential rise of the hydroxybutanone kinetic time profile matches that for the unimolecular decay of MECI. A weaker methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) photoionization signal is also attributed to OH roaming. Complementary multireference electronic structure calculations have been utilized to map the unimolecular decay pathways for MECI, starting with 1,4 H atom transfer from a methyl or methylene group to the terminal oxygen, followed by roaming of the separating OH and butanonyl radicals in the long-range region of the potential. Roaming via reorientation and the addition of OH to the vinyl group of butanonyl is shown to yield hydroxybutanone, and subsequent C–O elongation and H-transfer can lead to MVK. A comprehensive theoretical kinetic analysis has been conducted to evaluate rate constants and branching yields (ca. 10–11%) for thermal unimolecular decay of MECI to conventional and roaming products under laboratory and atmospheric conditions, consistent with the estimated experimental yield (ca. 7%).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Counting Calories: Light Yield Studies for ADRIANO Calorimeter Prototype

To estimate the light yield for ADRIANO prototype, we must calibrate the light sensors as well as collect data from beams of known properties. Future experiments searching for new physics require special calorimetric techniques to detect new particles. ADRIANO2(A Dual Readout Integrally Active Non-segmented Option) is one such technique. Several prototypes have been tested at Mtest Facility at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in the last few years. This work consisting of new and more refined analysis of the data taken with the intent of improving the understanding of this calorimeter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical analysis of the OH-initiated atmospheric oxidation reactions of imidazole

Imidazoles are present in Earth's atmosphere in both the gas-phase and in aerosol particles, and have been implicated in the formation of brown carbon aerosols. The gas-phase oxidation of imidazole (C 3 N 2 H 4 ) by hydroxyl radicals has been shown to be preferentially initiated via OH-addition to position C5, producing the 5-hydroxyimidazolyl radical adduct. However, the fate of this adduct upon reaction with O 2 in the atmospheric gas-phase is currently unknown. We employed an automated approach to investigate the reaction mechanism and kinetics of imidazole's OH-initiated gas-phase oxidation, in the presence of O 2 and NO x . The explored mechanism included reactions available to first-generation RO 2 radicals, as well as alkoxyl radicals produced from RO 2 + NO reactions. Product distributions were obtained by assembling and solving a master equation, under conditions relevant to the Earth's atmosphere. Our calculations show a complex, branched reaction mechanism, which nevertheless converges to yield two major closed-shell products: 4H-imidazol-4-ol (4H-4ol) and N,N′-diformylformamidine (FMF). At 298 K and 1 atm, we estimate the yields of 4H-4ol and FMF from imidazole oxidation initiated via OH-addition to position C5 to be 34 : 66, 12 : 85 and 2 : 95 under 10 ppt, 100 ppt and 1 ppb of NO respectively. This work also revealed O 2 -migration pathways between the α-N-imino peroxyl radical isomers. This reaction channel is fast for the first-generation RO 2 radicals, and may be important during the atmospheric oxidation of other unsaturated organic nitrogen compounds as well.

Almeida, Thomas Golin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene: laboratory progress, production rate systematics, and application of the 10 Be– 3 He nuclide pair in the Antarctic Dry Valleys

Here, we present cosmogenic- 10 Be and cosmogenic- 3 He data from Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes in surficial rock samples and a bedrock core from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with the goal of refining the laboratory methods for extracting beryllium from pyroxene, further estimating the 10 Be production rate in pyroxene and demonstrating the applicability of 10 Be– 3 He in mafic rock. The ability to routinely measure cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene will open new opportunities for quantifying exposure durations and Earth surface processes in mafic rocks. We describe scalable laboratory methods for isolating beryllium from pyroxene, which include a simple hydrofluoric acid leaching procedure for removing meteoric 10 Be and the addition of a pH 8 precipitation step to reduce the cation load prior to ion exchange chromatography. 10 Be measurements in pyroxene from the surface samples have apparent 3 He exposure ages of 1–6 Myr. We estimate a spallation production rate for 10 Be in pyroxene, referenced to 3 He, of 3.6 ± 0.2 atoms g –1 yr –1 . 10 Be and 3 He measurements in the bedrock core yield initial estimates for parameters associated with 10 Be and 3 He production by negative-muon capture ($f_{10}^{*}$ = 0.00183 and $f_{3}^{*}f_{C}f_{D}$ = 0.00337). Next, we demonstrate that the 10 Be– 3 He pair in pyroxene can be used to simultaneously resolve erosion rates and exposure ages, finding that the measured cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in our surface samples are best explained by 2–8 Myr of exposure at erosion rates of 0–35 cm Myr –1 . Finally, given the low 10 Be in our laboratory blanks (average of 5.7 × 10 3 atoms), the reported measurement precision, and our estimated production rate, it should be possible to measure 2 g samples with 10 Be concentrations of 6 × 10 4 and 1.5 × 10 4 atoms g –1 with 5 % and 15 % uncertainty, respectively. With this level of precision, Last Glacial Maximum to Late Holocene surfaces can now be dated with 10 Be in pyroxene. Application of 10 Be in pyroxene, alone or in combination with 3 He, will expand possibilities for investigating glacial histories and landscape change in mafic rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pu-238 Production Calculator and Estimation Tool

A MS Excel tool was created to help track Pu-238 production, Np-237 feedstock use, estimate production scenarios, and coordinate planning for shipments. As-run estimates were used as a basis for beginning and end of life isotopic concentrations. Multiple target types were created to demonstrate a proof of concept while actual results were not yet available The initial goals of this production tool were: • Track unirradiated, currently irradiated, and irradiated targets at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) • Estimate production yields from irradiated targets in various positions for each cycle • Provide past, current, and future year quantities of Np-237 and Pu-238 at ATR, amounts shipped to ATR and amounts shipped from ATR • Estimate production from current and future target designs based on data from numerical modeling (values will be provided by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)) • After proof of principle, additional work is planned that will further enhance the tool with: o Incorporate the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for irradiation o Incorporate irradiations and target shipments from ORNL to INL and back to track Np-237 transfers across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

InP- and GaAs-Based 0.6 eV GaInAs Devices for Thermophotovoltaics and Laser Power Conversion

Emerging applications such as thermal energy grid storage, waste heat recovery and portable power generation require efficient thermophotovoltaic (TPV) converters tuned to temperatures near 1000 Degrees Celsius or below. Metamorphic GaInAs with larger lattice constants than InP present a promising option for these needs. The ability to grow these devices on GaAs substrates instead of more expensive InP would enhance the scalability of these devices. In this talk, we present inverted metamorphic Ga0.3In0.7As photovoltaic converters with sub-0.60 eV bandgaps grown on InP and GaAs substrates. These devices are realized using InAsP or GaInP/InAsP compositionally graded buffers which exhibit threading dislocation densities of 1.3 +/- 0.6 x 106 cm-2 and 8.9 +/- 1.7 x 106 cm-2 on InP and GaAs, respectively. Despite this difference in defect density, the devices generate similar open-circuit voltages of 0.386 V and 0.383 V, respectively, under irradiance producing a short-circuit current density of -10 A/cm2, with bandgap-voltage offsets of 0.20 and 0.21 V. We estimate their thermophotovoltaic efficiency using these measurements coupled with broadband reflectance measurments. The InP-based cell is estimated to yield 1.09 W/cm2 at 1100 Degrees Celsius vs. 0.92 W/cm2 for the GaAs-based cell, with TPV efficiencies of 16.8 vs. 9.2%. Both devices are limited by sub-bandgap absorption, which we assess largely occurs in the graded buffers. We estimate that the 1100 Degrees Celsius thermophotovoltaic efficiencies would increase to 24.0% and 20.7% in structures with the graded buffer removed, if previously demonstrated reflectance is achieved. These devices also have application as laser power converters in the 2.0-2.3 um atmospheric window. We estimate efficiencies of 36.8% and 32.5% under 2.0 um monochromatic irradiance of 1.86 W/cm2 and 2.81 W/cm2, respectively.

ENGINEERING,MATERIALS SCIENCE,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States

As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater—groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone—as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme events, posing challenges to food security. Corn, a staple crop for billions, is particularly vulnerable to heat stress, a primary driver of yield variability. While many studies have examined climate impact on average corn yields, little attention has been given to the climate impact on production volatility. This study investigates the future volatility and risks associated with global corn supply under climate change, evaluating the potential benefits of two key adaptation strategies: irrigation and market integration. A statistical model is employed to estimate corn yield response to heat stress and utilize NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate data to project future production volatility and risks of substantial yield losses. Three metrics are introduced to quantify these risks: Sigma (σ), the standard deviation of year-on-year yield change, which reflects overall yield volatility; Rho (ρ), the risk of substantial loss, defined as the probability of yield falling below a critical threshold; and Beta (β), a relative risk coefficient that captures the volatility of a region's corn production compared to the globally integrated market. The analysis reveals a concerning trend of increasing year-on-year yield volatility (σ) across most regions and climate models. This volatility increase is significant for key corn-producing regions like Brazil and the United States. While irrigated corn production exhibits a smaller rise in volatility, suggesting irrigation as a potential buffer against climate change impacts, it is not a sustainable option as it can cause groundwater depletion. On the other hand, global market integration reduces overall volatility and market risks significantly with less sustainability concerns. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of a multidimensional approach to adaptation in the food sector. While irrigation can benefit individual farmers, promoting global market integration offers a broader solution for fostering resilience and sustainability across the entire food system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗