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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Energy Cost Analysis and Operational Range Prediction Based on Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Real-World Deployments across the United States

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions.

Qiu, Yin (ORCID:0009000900948794)↗

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset for "Climatic and socioeconomic drivers of water use and their spatio-temporal patterns for small and mid-sized cities in the Contiguous United States"

This dataset contains all code for calibrating and analyzing machine learning models for "Climatic and socioeconomic drivers of water use and their spatio-temporal patterns for small and mid-sized cities in the Contiguous United States". Please unzip the folders and follow the instructions from 'README.txt'. Required python modulessklearn=1.2.2numpy=1.23.3xgboost=2.0.2joblib=1.2.0 Required R libraryshapFlex:devtools::install_github("nredell/shapFlex")library(shapFlex)

Dave, Hari [Civil and Environmental Engineering De↗

A Landslide Climate Indicator from Machine Learning

In order to create a Landslide Hazard Index, we accessed rain, snow, and a dozen other variables from the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System. These predictors were converted to probabilities of landslide occurrence with XGBoost, a major machine-learning tool. The model was fitted with thousands of historical landslides from the Pacific Northwest Landslide Inventory (PNLI).

Stanley, T. A.↗

Global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) Version 2: New Activities and Future Plans

A remote sensing-based system has been developed to characterize the potential for rainfall-triggered landslides across the globe in near real-time. The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses a decision tree framework to combine a static susceptibility map derived from information on slope, rock characteristics, forest loss, distance to fault zones and distance to road networks with satellite precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Since 2016, the LHASA model has been providing near real-time and retrospective estimates of potential landslide activity. Results of this work are available at https://landslides.nasa.gov. In order to advance LHASA’s capabilities to characterize landslide hazards and impacts dynamically, we have implemented a new approach that leverages machine learning, new parameters, and new inventories. LHASA 2.0 uses the XGBoost machine learning model to bring in dynamic variables as well as additional static variables to better represent landslide hazard globally. Global rainfall forecasts are also being evaluated to provide a 1-3 day forecast of potential landslide activity. Additional factors such as recent seismicity and burned areas are also being considered to represent the preconditioning or changing interactions with subsequent rainfall over affected areas. A series of parameters are being tested within this structure using NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog as well as many other event-based and multi-temporal inventories mapped by the project team or provided by project partners. In addition to estimates of landslide hazard, LHASA Version 2 will incorporate dynamic estimates of exposure including population, roads and infrastructure to highlight the potential impacts that rainfall-triggered landslides. The ultimate goal of LHASA Version 2.0 is to approximate the relative probabilities of landslide hazard and exposure across different space and time scales to inform hazard assessment retrospectively over the past 20 years, in near real-time, and in the future. In addition to the hazard. This presentation will outline the new activities for LHASA Version 2.0 and present some next steps for this system.

Dalia Kirschbaum↗

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗

Data-driven landslide nowcasting at the global scale

Landslides affect nearly every country in the world each year. To better understand this global hazard, the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed previously. LHASA version 1 combines satellite precipitation estimates with a global landslide susceptibility map to produce a gridded map of potentially hazardous areas from 60° North-South every 3 h. LHASA version 1 categorizes the world’s land surface into three ratings: high, moderate, and low hazard with a single decision tree that first determines if the last seven days of rainfall were intense, then evaluates landslide susceptibility. LHASA version 2 has been developed with a data-driven approach. The global susceptibility map was replaced with a collection of explanatory variables, and two new dynamically varying quantities were added: snow and soil moisture. Along with antecedent rainfall, these variables modulated the response to current daily rainfall. In addition, the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) was supplemented with several inventories of rainfall-triggered landslide events. These factors were incorporated into the machine-learning framework XGBoost, which was trained to predict the presence or absence of landslides over the period 2015–2018, with the years 2019–2020 reserved for model evaluation. As a result of these improvements, the new global landslide nowcast was twice as likely to predict the occurrence of historical landslides as LHASA version 1, given the same global false positive rate. Furthermore, the shift to probabilistic outputs allows users to directly manage the trade-off between false negatives and false positives, which should make the nowcast useful for a greater variety of geographic settings and applications. In a retrospective analysis, the trained model ran over a global domain for 5 years, and results for LHASA version 1 and version 2 were compared. Due to the importance of rainfall and faults in LHASA version 2, nowcasts would be issued more frequently in some tropical countries, such as Colombia and Papua New Guinea; at the same time, the new version placed less emphasis on arid regions and areas far from the Pacific Rim. LHASA version 2 provides a nearly real-time view of global landslide hazard for a variety of stakeholders.

XGBoos↗

Landslide Likelihood Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

The supply of electricity via power plants is criticalto the operation of many critical infrastructure systems in mod-ern society. Natural hazards can disrupt the power supply, causepower outages that can halt economic growth, and impede emer-gency response until power is restored. The proposed work aimsto predict the landslides likelihood in these critical infrastructurelocations in the Northeastern USA using integrated databases ofexplanatory variables and machine learning algorithms. First,data related to landslides are obtained and merged, includingtopographic, soil moisture, and precipitation-related data. Fiveregression algorithms, namely: Random Forest, Extreme Gradi-ent Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor regression (KNN),Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Linear regression,are utilized to predict the landslide probability and evaluatedon the dataset. The accuracy of the models is assessed by usingstatistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), meansquared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).The study results show that Random Forest outperformed othermodels with the mutual information feature selection method.It achieved an MSE of 0.0011 with mutual information-basedfeature selection and an MSE of 0.00157 without feature selection.KNN regressor outperformed the other models with an MSEof 0.00139 with correlation-based information selection. Theproposed landslide identification model with Random Forestalgorithm shows outstanding robustness and great potential intackling the landslide likelihood prediction by employing MLalgorithms.

Vasundhara Acharya↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Reconstructing PM 2.5 Data Record for the Kathmandu Valley Using a Machine Learning Model

This paper presents a method for reconstructing the historical hourly concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) over the Kathmandu Valley from 1980 to the present. The method uses a machine learning model that is trained using PM2.5 readings from US Embassy (Phora Durbar) as a ground truth, and the meteorological data from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA2) as input. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model acquires a credible 10-fold cross-validation (CV) score of ~83.4%, an r2-score of ~84%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ~15.82 µg/m3, and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ~10.27 µg/m3. Further demonstrating the model's applicability to years other than those for which truth values are unavailable, the multiple cross-test with an unseen data set offered r2-scores for 2018, 2019, and 2020 ranging from 56% to 67%. The model-predicted data agrees with true values and indicates that MERRA2 underestimates PM2.5 over the region. It strongly agrees with ground-based evidence showing substantially higher mass concentrations in the dry pre- and post-monsoon seasons than in the monsoon months. It also shows a strong anti-correlation between PM2.5 concentration and humidity. The results also demonstrate that none of the years fulfilled the annual mean air quality index (AQI) standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

machine learning↗

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation through Machine-Learning Procedure

Traffic volume data is one of the most important metrics for accurate assessment of the performance of a transportation system. Quality volume data is required to effectively assess extent of delay and congestion, detect real-time perturbations to the network, and understand traffic patterns during major weather events. Traffic volume on freeways are typically collected through continuous count stations installed by state DOTs, while there is lack of traffic volume observability on off-freeway roads. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Collaboration with the I-95 Corridor Coalition and the University of Maryland, extended its research into estimating volumes anywhere anytime from industry probe based data for off-freeway roads. NREL combined vehicle probe count data with several other data sets (speed, whether, roadway geometry, time-of-day, day-of-week, etc.) to estimate hourly volumes as well as AADTs. The research validated and demonstrated the machine learning model, namely XGBoost, using data collected from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series: Preprint

In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. Novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 82.6 and 74.4, respectively, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of using more accurate clipping filters when evaluating system degradation rates will be assessed in our final manuscript.

clipping↗

Global Evaluation of Process Conditions and Wave Modes in a Rotating Detonation Engine

Rotating Detonation Engines (RDEs) show significant promise for enhancing the efficiency of gas turbine engines while maintaining low 𝑁𝑂𝑥 emissions. This work investigates the predictability of wave modes in a water-cooled RDE under varying operational conditions. Experimental data comprising over 6,700 samples was collected, including parameters such as flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and equivalence ratios. A machine learning approach using the XGBoost library was used to build a multi-class classifier, predicting wave modes based on these inputs. The model achieved a high accuracy of 97%, demonstrating that wave modes are not random but deterministic based on the process conditions. SHAP analysis was used to identify the most influential parameters affecting wave mode prediction. The results show that for the water-cooled NETL RDE, wave mode is determinant and predictable based on the process parameters.

Weber, Justin [NETL] (ORCID:0000000218487035)↗

Fusion of Experiments and Simulations for Real-Time Identification of Pipeline Defects

In this study, we explored fusion of experiments and simulations for real time identification of pipeline defects across physical and non-physical domains. The challenges associated to data processing were addressed and a combined classification models was presented via CNN models. In addition, regression model based on XGBOOST is built to determine the defect location and defect dimension from data-driven features of guided wave signals captured by SMS fiber optic sensor.

deep learning↗

Investigation of acoustic waves under subsurface conditions to improve the predictions of rock mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics

Mechanical properties and natural fracture characteristics are critical to investigate for subsurface engineering applications, including carbon storage, well drilling, and stimulation, as they govern rock stability, fluid flow, and mechanical behavior under stress. This dissertation integrates experimental and machine learning approaches to enhance the prediction and understanding of these properties by analyzing acoustic wave behavior under varied subsurface conditions. First, the influence of temperature, pore pressure, and supercritical CO2 (scCO2) saturation on poroelastic properties is examined using Gray Berea sandstone samples. The results show that temperature and pore pressure significantly affect the bulk modulus and Biot’s coefficient, while scCO2 saturation impacts rock compressibility, informing strategies for effective geological carbon storage. The study extends this understanding by experimentally evaluating the impact of reservoir depletion on the dynamic mechanical properties of the emerging Caney shale in South Oklahoma with the employment of unsupervised machine learning to predict static mechanical properties across the Caney shale. Integrating petrophysical data and chemostratigraphy, the workflow—featuring K-means clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), and inverse distance weighting (IDW)—improves stratigraphic characterization and the estimation of static-to-dynamic modulus ratios, which is vital for optimizing drilling and stimulation strategies. Finally, the work explores how natural fracture characteristics in shale influence acoustic waveforms and shear wave splitting (SWS) analysis. Experimental data on fractured samples under different stress and temperature conditions, combined with machine learning models such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), reveal key fracture properties impacting SWS and wave propagation. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive framework for linking acoustic wave behavior with rock properties, advancing the methods for monitoring and predicting geomechanical changes. The insights offered valuable implications for safer, more efficient CO2 injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and subsurface management.

Elkholy, Sherif↗

Power System Feature-Based Event Classification by Means of Multiple PMU Data

Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) provide time synchronized measurements across the power grid, enabling data driven event detection and classification for enhanced system monitoring and situational awareness. However, variations in event duration, spatial extent, and severity, along with coincident events, pose challenges for conventional classification models that require fixed-size inputs. This paper presents a feature-based framework that aggregates diverse attributes from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron. A probabilistic post-processing scheme is further introduced to enable multi-label classification in the presence of overlapping events. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest model achieves 95% accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields an additional 3% improvement.

Nematirad, Reza↗