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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Wu, Li-Guang↗
NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Wall-Modeled LES Perspective for the High Lift Common Research Model Using LAVA

A new immersed boundary Wall-Modelled Large Eddy Simulation (WMLES) formulation is developed to study high-lift aerodynamics on the NASA High-Lift Common Research Model (HL-CRM). A sequence of Cartesian Octree grids with sizes ranging from 100 Million through 2.02 Billion grid points is utilized to systematically assess grid-sensitivity and convergence for the in-tunnel (QinetiQ) configuration of the model, and remarkable agreement between the immersed boundary and the curvilinear body-aligned WMLES formulations is reported on grids with comparable resolutions. In the free-air configuration of the model, consistent predictions between the Curvilinear Overset and the Cartesian Octree formulations are reported for angles of attack up to C(L,max) at a=19.57. However, some differences in the onset of stall are seen between the two methods for a>20°: while the curvilinear WMLES experiences wing-root separation with increasing angle of attack (Topology A), the Cartesian Octree formulation shows a different flow topology characterized by boundary layer weakness on the main element, emanating from the pylon-wing attachment (Topology B). In order to obtain further insight into the two-distinct topologies, carefully designed numerical experiments to isolate effects of the model standoff and the tunnel wall-boundary layers are conducted using the immersed boundary WMLES formulation. The increased incidence angle-of-attack on the inboard portion of the wing due to the standoff is shown to be sufficient for triggering a switch from Topology B to Topology A in Cartesian WMLES. The role of the floor boundary layer is further examined in detail by identification of additional corner-flow vorticity generated by the viscous juncture flow interactions between the floor boundary layer and the standoff leading to formation of a strong coherent and persistent vortex on the belly-side of the fuselage. The intensity of this vortex is shown to increase with the thickness of the floor boundary layer. A further increase in the incidence angle of attack near the leading-edge strake caused by the presence of this belly-side vortex is quantified for two-distinct floor boundary layers. Both of the floor boundary layers considered result in the onset of large scale wing-root separation at a=21.47in non-confined (free-air) configurations.

TTT↗
NASA NTRS1995

The adaptive, cut-cell Cartesian approach (warts and all)

Solution-adaptive methods based on cutting bodies out of Cartesian grids are gaining popularity now that the ways of circumventing the accuracy problems associated with small cut cells have been developed. Researchers are applying Cartesian-based schemes to a broad class of problems now, and, although there is still development work to be done, it is becoming clearer which problems are best suited to the approach (and which are not). The purpose of this paper is to give a candid assessment, based on applying Cartesian schemes to a variety of problems, of the strengths and weaknesses of the approach as it is currently implemented.

Powell, Kenneth G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Nearfield Summary and Statistical Analysis of the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

A summary is provided for the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Workshop held 8-9 January 2017 in conjunction with AIAA SciTech 2017. The workshop used three required models of increasing complexity: an axisymmetric body, a wing body, and a complete configuration with flow-through nacelle. An optional complete configuration with propulsion boundary conditions is also provided. These models are designed with similar nearfield signatures to isolate geometry and shock/expansion interaction effects. Eleven international participant groups submitted nearfield signatures with forces, pitching moment, and iterative convergence norms. Statistics and grid convergence of these nearfield signatures are presented. These submissions are propagated to the ground, and noise levels are computed. This allows the grid convergence and the statistical distribution of a noise level to be computed. While progress is documented since the first workshop, improvement to the analysis methods for a possible subsequent workshop are provided. The complete configuration with flow-through nacelle showed the most dramatic improvement between the two workshops. The current workshop cases are more relevant to vehicles with lower loudness and have the potential for lower annoyance than the first workshop cases. The models for this workshop with quieter ground noise levels than the first workshop exposed weaknesses in analysis, particularly in convective discretization.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Nearfield Summary and Statistical Analysis of the Second AIAA Sonic Boom PredictionWorkshop

A summary is provided for the Second AIAA Sonic Boom Workshop held 8–9 January 2017 in conjunction with AIAA SciTech 2017. The workshop used three required models of increasing complexity: an axisymmetric body, a wing body, and a complete configuration with flow-through nacelle. An optional complete configuration with propulsion boundary conditions is also provided. These models are designed with similar nearfield signatures to isolate geometry and shock/expansion interaction e ects. Eleven international participant groups submitted nearfield signatures with forces, pitching moment, and iterative convergence norms. Statistics and grid convergence of these nearfield signatures are presented. These submissions are propagated to the ground, and noise levels are computed. This allows the grid convergence and the statistical distribution of a noise level to be computed. While progress is documented since the first workshop, improvement to the analysis methods for a possible subsequent workshop are provided. The complete configuration with flow-through nacelle showed the most dramatic improvement between the two workshops. The current workshop cases are more relevant to vehicles with lower loudness and have the potential for lower annoyance than the first workshop cases. The models for this workshop with quieter ground noise levels than the first workshop exposed weaknesses in analysis, particularly in convective discretization.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Direct numerical simulations of turbulent shear flows

Numerical simulations of wakes of axisymmetric bodies and of turbulent mixing layers are reported. The flows were assumed to be statistically homogeneous in the mean flow direction, in concert with experimental data and the self-similarity theorem. The nonlinear Navier-Stokes equations were solved by a pseudo-spectral numerical method using a 32 x 32 x 33 point grid and an algorithm for fast Fourier transforms and inverse transforms. Leapfrog time differencing was employed on nonlinear terms and time differencing on viscous terms. Towed wakes and wakes behind a self-propelled body were simulated, showing that the towed wakes exhibited a proper temporal behavior after an initial period of adjustment, including the development of a kurtosis near the wake edge, which is experimentally verifiable. The mixing-layer simulation displayed the laboratory demonstrated presence of large scale features such as vortex cores, while the lateral coherence was weak.

Metcalfe, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2014

An AeroCom Assessment of Black Carbon in Arctic Snow and Sea Ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng/g for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng/g for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng/g. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model-measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60-90degN) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07-0.25) W/sq m and 0.18 (0.06-0.28) W/sq m in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W/sq m for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

carbon↗
NASA NTRS1997

Geosat Data Assimilation with Application to the Eastern North Atlantic

An attempt is made to determine the three-dimensional ocean circulation from satellite altimeter measurements by assimilating Geosat sea surface height data into an eddy-resolving QuasiGeostrophic (QG) model of the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Results are tested against independent information from hydrographic field observations and moored current meter data collected during the Geosat ERM. The comparison supports the concept of inferring aspects of the three-dimensional flow field from sea surface height observations by combining altimetric measurements with the dynamics of ocean circulation models. A Holland-type QG model with open boundaries is set up on a 2000 km X 2000 km domain of the eastern North Atlantic between 25 deg. and 45 deg. N, 32 deg. and 8 deg. W. By using a simple nudging technique, about two years of Geosat altimeter data are assimilated into the model every five days as space-time objective analyses on the model grid. The error information resulting from the analysis is used during the assimilation procedure to account for data uncertainties. Results show an intense eddy field, which in the surface layer interacts with a meandering Azores Front. Compared to Geosat, the model leads to smoothed fields that follow the observations. Model simulations are significantly correlated with hydrographic data from March 1988 and June 1989, both close to the surface and in the subsurface. Good agreement is also found between the model velocity fields and moored current meter data in the top two model layers. The agreement is visually weak in the bottom layer, although a coherence analysis reveals an agreement between the model simulation and current meter data over the full water column at periods exceeding 80 days.

Stammer, Detlef↗
NASA NTRS1985

Balloon-based interferometric techniques

A balloon-borne triple-etalon Fabry-Perot Interferometer, observing the Doppler shifts of absorption lines caused by molecular oxygen and water vapor in the far red/near infrared spectrum of backscattered sunlight, has been used to evaluate a passive spaceborne remote sensing technique for measuring winds in the troposphere and stratosphere. There have been two successful high altitude balloon flights of the prototype UCL instrument from the National Scientific Balloon Facility at Palestine, TE (May 80, Oct. 83). The results from these flights have demonstrated that an interferometer with adequate resolution, stability and sensitivity can be built. The wind data are of comparable quality to those obtained from operational techniques (balloon and rocket sonde, cloud-top drift analysis, and from the gradient wind analysis of satellite radiance measurements). However, the interferometric data can provide a regular global grid, over a height range from 5 to 50 km in regions of clear air. Between the middle troposphere (5 km) and the upper stratosphere (40 to 50 km), an optimized instrument can make wind measurements over the daylit hemisphere with an accuracy of about 3 to 5 m/sec (2 sigma). It is possible to obtain full height profiles between altitudes of 5 and 50 km, with 4 km height resolution, and a spatial resolution of about 200 km, along the orbit track. Below an altitude of about 10 km, Fraunhofer lines of solar origin are possible targets of the Doppler wind analysis. Above an altitude of 50 km, the weakness of the backscattered solar spectrum (decreasing air density) is coupled with the low absorption crosssection of all atmospheric species in the spectral region up to 800 nm (where imaging photon detectors can be used), causing the along-the-track resolution (or error) to increase beyond values useful for operational purposes. Within the region of optimum performance (5 to 50 km), however, the technique is a valuable potential complement to existing wind measuring systems and can provide a low cost addition to powerful active (LIDAR) wind measuring systems now under development.

Rees, David↗
NASA NTRS2021

Using Remote Sensing to Monitor the Spring Phenology of Acadia National Park Across Elevational Gradients

Greenup dates and their responses to elevation and temperature variations across the mountains of Acadia National Park are monitored using remote sensing data, including Landsat 8 surface reflectances (at a 30-m spatial resolution) and VIIRS reflectances adjusted to a nadir view (gridded at a 500-m spatial resolution), during the 2013–2016 growing seasons. The 30-m resolution provides a better scale for studying the phenology variation across elevational gradients than the 500-m resolution, as greenup dates monitored at 30-m scale have better agreement with leaf-out dates recorded in the field alongside the north–south-oriented hiking trails on three of the park’s tallest mountains (466 m, 418 m, and 380 m), and can provide landcover-specific analysis. The spring phenology responses to temperature and elevation vary among different spatial scales. Greenup dates of Acadia National Park monitored at 30-m scale show a weak advancing trend with higher spring temperature, while greenup dates monitored at 500 m show a weak delaying trend. The species mix within landcover at 30-m scale could weaken the advancing trend detected at field observation level. The landcover mix and elevation variation within 500-m scale could alter the spring phenology response to spring temperature variation. Greenup dates monitored at both 30-m and 500-m scales vary among different elevational zones, aspects, landcovers, and years. However, the relationship between greenup dates and elevation is rather weak.

Yan Liu↗
NASA NTRS2016

Detection of Northern Hemisphere Transient Baroclinic Eddies in REMS Pressure Data at Gale Crater Mars

Wintertime transient baroclinic eddies in the northern midlatitudes of Mars were identified in Viking Lander 2 (VL2, 48.3N, 134.0E) surface pressure data back in the early 1980s. Here we report the results of an analysis of REMS surface pressure data acquired by the Curiosity Rover in Gale Crater (4.5S, 137.4E) that suggests the meridional scale of these eddies is so large that the disturbances in the surface pressure fields they create extend across the equator and into the southern hemisphere. A power spectrum analysis of the seasonally detrended REMS pressure data from Ls=240-280 shows dominant periods of ~ 6 sols and ~2.2 sols (though with greatly reduced power) which are close the dominant periods of the transient eddies observed by VL2 at this season. Analysis of the surface pressure fields from the Ames Mars GCM for the same season also shows dominant periods at the grid points closest to VL2 and Gale Crater similar to those observed. In the model, the disturbances responsible for these oscillations are eastward traveling baroclinic eddies whose amplitudes are greatest at northern mid latitudes at this season, but whose meridional extent does indeed extend into the low latitudes of the southern hemisphere. REMS appears to be seeing the signature of these eddies, not only for this season but for the early fall and late winter seasons as well. While orbital images of the so called “flushing storms”, which more closely correspond to the shorter period waves, show dust-lifting frontal systems that cross the equator, REMS data - even though acquired at a longitude of comparatively weak storm activity - provide the first in-situ evidence that northern hemisphere transient eddies can be detected at the surface in low latitudes of the southern hemisphere.

REMS Data↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

Regional Climate Model↗
NASA NTRS1990

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Crane, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Model studies on the role of moist convection as a mechanism for interaction between the mesoscales

A three year research effort is described which had as its goal the development of techniques to improve the numerical prediction of cumulus convection on the meso-beta and meso-gamma scales. Two MESO models are used, the MASS (mesoscale) and TASS (cloud scale) models. The primary meteorological situation studied is the 28-29 Jun. 1986 Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) study area on a day with relatively weak large scale forcing. The problem of determining where and when convection should be initiated is considered to be a major problem of current approaches. Assimilation of moisture data from satellite, radar, and surface data is shown to significantly improve mesoscale simulations. The TASS model is shown to reproduce some observed mesoscale features when initialized with 3-D observational data. Convection evolution studies center on comparison of the Kuo and Fritsch-Chappell cumulus parameterization schemes to each other, and to cloud model results. The Fritsch-Chappell scheme is found to be superior at about 30 km resolution, while the Kuo scheme does surprisingly well in simulating convection down to 10 km in cases where convergence features are well-resolved by the model grid. Results from MASS-TASS interaction experiments are presented and discussed. A discussion of the future of convective simulation is given, with the conclusion that significant progress is possible on several fronts in the next few years.

Waight, Kenneth T., III↗
NASA NTRS2005

Receptivity of Supersonic Boundary Layers to Acoustic Disturbances

Boundary layer receptivity to two-dimensional slow and fast acoustic waves is investigated by solving Navier-Stokes equations for Mach 4.5 flow over a flat plate with a finite-thickness leading edge. Higher order spatial and temporal schemes are employed to obtain the solution whereby the flat-plate leading edge region is resolved by providing a sufficiently refined grid. The results show that the instability waves are generated in the leading edge region and that the boundary-layer is much more receptive to slow acoustic waves (by almost a factor of 20) as compared to the fast waves. Hence, this leading-edge receptivity mechanism is expected to be more relevant in the transition process for high Mach number flows. The effect of acoustic wave incidence angle is also studied and it is found that the receptivity of the boundary layer on the windward side (with respect to the acoustic forcing) decreases by more than a factor of 4 when the incidence angle is increased from 0 to 45 deg. However, the receptivity coefficient for the leeward side is found to vary relatively weakly with the incidence angle. The effect of leading-edge thickness is also studied and bluntness is found to stabilize the boundary layer. The relative significance of fast acoustic waves is enhanced in the presence of bluntness.

Malik, Mujeeb R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗