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At least 127 records · Page 7

Thermodynamic constraint on the cloud liquid water feedback in climate models

The cloud liquid water feedback in climate models consists of the increase (decrease) in optical depth of clouds resulting from higher (lower) liquid water contents that might accompany tropospheric warming (cooling). The change in cloud liquid water with temperature is shown to depend on the rate of change of the slope of the moist adiabat with respect to temperature, and it is a strong function of temperature. The value of this rate of change in the tropics is about half that in mid and high latitudes and is much less than the value obtained by assuming that liquid water scales with the saturation mixing ratio.

Betts, Alan K.↗

A fixed-lag Kalman smoother for retrospective data assimilation

Analyses incorporating future data, as well as current and past data, are termed retrospective analyses. In this paper, the fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) is proposed as a means of providing retrospective analysis capability in data assimilation. The FLKS is a direct generalization of the Kalman filter. It incorporates all data observed up to and including some fixed amount of time past each analysis time. A computationally efficient form of the FLKS is derived. A simple scalar examination of the FLKS demonstrates that incorporating future data improves analyses the most in the presence of dynamical instabilities, for accurate models and for accurate observations. An implementation of the FLKS for two-dimensional linear shallow-water model corroborates the scalar analysis. The numerical experiments also demonstrate the ability of the FLKS to propagate information upstream as well as downstream, thus improving analysis quality substantially in data voids.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White↗

Advanced waste management technology evaluation

The purpose of this program is to evaluate the feasibility of steam reforming spacecraft wastes into simple recyclable inorganic salts, carbon dioxide and water. Model waste compounds included cellulose, urea, methionine, Igapon TC-42, and high density polyethylenes. These are compounds found in urine, feces, hygiene water, etc. The gasification and steam reforming process used the addition of heat and low quantities of oxygen to oxidize and reduce the model compounds.The studied reactions were aimed at recovery of inorganic residues that can be recycled into a closed biologic system. Results indicate that even at very low concentrations of oxygen (less than 3%) the formation of a carbonaceous residue was suppressed. The use of a nickel/cobalt reforming catalyst at reaction temperature of 1600 degrees yielded an efficient destruction of the organic effluents, including methane and ammonia. Additionally, the reforming process with nickel/cobalt catalyst diminished the noxious odors associated with butyric acid, methionine and plastics.

Couch, H.↗

Orographically forced oscillations in a dynamical model of the Martian atmosphere

The barotropic, orographically-forced intraseasonal oscillations of the Martian atmosphere are presently analyzed by means of a single-layer shallow-water model. An oscillation with 85-Martian day mean period is noted in a time-series of the model global atmospheric angular momentum, and its robustness is verified. The oscillation has a standing zonal component whose centers of action are located upstream and downstream of salient orographic features. A resemblance arises between the oscillation's northern-hemisphere features and those of the terrestrial 40-day oscillation.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗

Concept of Fractal Dimension use of Multifractal Cloud Liquid Models Based on Real Data as Input to Monte Carlo Radiation Models

The purpose of this paper is discuss the concept of fractal dimension; multifractal statistics as an extension of this; the use of simple multifractal statistics (power spectrum, structure function) to characterize cloud liquid water data; and to understand the use of multifractal cloud liquid water models based on real data as input to Monte Carlo radiation models of shortwave radiation transfer in 3D clouds, and the consequences of this in two areas: the design of aircraft field programs to measure cloud absorptance; and the explanation of the famous "Landsat scale break" in measured radiance.

Wiscombe, W.↗

NASA Ares I Launch Vehicle Upper Stage Reaction Control System (ReCS) Cold Flow Development Test Overview

NASA s Ares I launch vehicle, consisting of a five segment solid rocket booster first stage and a liquid bi-propellant J2-X engine Upper Stage, is the vehicle that s been chosen to launch the Orion Crew Module, which will return humans to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. After First Stage booster separation, the Reaction Control System (ReCS), a monopropellant hydrazine system, will provide the Upper Stage element with three degrees of freedom control as needed. This paper provides an overview of the system level development testing that has taken place on the Ares I launch vehicle Upper Stage ReCS. The ReCS System Development Test Article (SDTA) was built as a flight representative water flow test article whose primary test objective was to obtain fluid system performance data to evaluate the integrate system performance characteristics and verify analytical models. Water is the industry standard for cold flow testing of hydrazine systems, because the densities are very close and the speeds of sound are well characterized. The completion of this development level test program was considered necessary to support the ReCS Critical Design Review. This paper will address the design approach taken in building the test article, the objectives of the test program, types of testing completed, general results, the ability of the program to meet the test objectives, and lessons learned

Dervan, Melanie↗

Temporal Changes in Endmember Abundances, Liquid Water and Water Vapor Over Vegetation at Jasper Ridge

In this study, a Modtran-based calibration approach was used to map liquid water and atmospheric water vapor and retrieve surface reflectance from three AVIRIS scenes acquired in 1992 over the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. Temporal trends in endmember fractions, liquid water and atmospheric water vapor were investigated also. The combination of spectral mixture analysis and the Modtran based atmospheric/liquid water models was used to develop a unique vegetation community description.

liquid↗

Simplification of the Kalman filter for meteorological data assimilation

The paper proposes a new statistical method of data assimilation that is based on a simplification of the Kalman filter equations. The forecast error covariance evolution is approximated simply by advecting the mass-error covariance field, deriving the remaining covariances geostrophically, and accounting for external model-error forcing only at the end of each forecast cycle. This greatly reduces the cost of computation of the forecast error covariance. In simulations with a linear, one-dimensional shallow-water model and data generated artificially, the performance of the simplified filter is compared with that of the Kalman filter and the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The simplified filter produces analyses that are nearly optimal, and represents a significant improvement over OI.

Dee, Dick P.↗

SWOT Applications in Alaska

Use of SWOT for model calibration and assimilation are encouraging, but further work is needed: account for uncertainty in meteorological forcing (calibration) and apply ensemble Kalman Smoother (data assimilation). Lessons learned can inform development of operational NOAA National Water Model Alaskan domain and other SWOT applications.

SWOT↗

Steam chugging analysis in single-vent vapor injection

A complete cycle of the periodic steam chugging phenomenon is analyed. Steam velocity and pressure variations in the vent are described by one-dimensional conservation equations. This is coupled either to the water slug model when water is in the vent, or, the infinite pool spherical bubble model at the vent exit during bubble growth. An isolated spherical bubble model is used for computing the collapse pressures. Comparisons of the model predictions with the UCLA 1/12-scale and the Japan 1/6-scale data indicate that the vent-pipe model predicts the vent-clearing times and the bubble growth times well. In addition, the predicted maximum chugging heights compared well with those measured in the Japan data. On bubble collapse pressures, the comparison with the spherical bubble model predictions is only fair. The model generally overpredicts the magnitude of the spikes. On examining the effects of pool subcooling and steam mass flux, general agreement is found between the predicted trends and those measured.

Lee, C. K. B.↗

Sources of Sahel precipitation for simulated drought and rainy seasons

The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source regions is 'tagged', allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June-July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this case study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to Sahelian precipitation in the'rainy' simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Symmetric Equations on the Surface of a Sphere as Used by Model GISS:IB

Standard vector calculus formulas of Cartesian three space are projected onto the surface of a sphere. This produces symmetric equations with three nonindependent horizontal velocity components. Each orthogonal axis has a velocity component that rotates around its axis (eastward velocity rotates around the north–south axis) and a specific angular momentum component that is the product of the velocity component multiplied by the cosine of axis’ latitude. Angular momentum components align with the fixed axes and simplify several formulas, whereas the rotating velocity components are not orthogonal and vary with location. Three symmetric coordinates allow vector resolution and calculus operations continuously over the whole spherical surface, which is not possible with only two coordinates. The symmetric equations are applied to one-layer shallow water models on cubed-sphere and icosahedral grids, the latter being computationally simple and applicable to an ocean domain. Model results are presented for three different initial conditions and five different resolutions.

Icosahedral grid↗

Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

Abramopoulos, F.↗

Systematic estimation of forecast and observation error covariances in four-dimensional data assimilation

A two-part algorithm is presented for reliably computing weather forecast model and observational error covariances during data assimilation. Data errors arise from instrumental inaccuracies and sub-grid scale variability, whereas forecast errors occur because of modeling errors and the propagation of previous analysis errors. A Kalman filter is defined as the primary algorithm for estimating the forecast and analysis error convariance matrices. A second algorithm is described for quantifying the noise covariance matrices of any degree to obtain accurate values for the observational error covariances. Numerical results are provided from a linearized one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results cover observational noise covariances, initial instrumental errors and erroneous model values.

Dee, D. P.↗

Description and test results of a water basin to determine ground effect in hover using small models

A water basin test facility was established capable of measuring forces and moments of small models of VTOL aircraft, simulating hover in and out of ground effect. Because the models and the operation of the facility are inexpensive, the water basin is particularly suitable for testing the relative characteristics of a great number of model configurations for preliminary design development. Results from a variety of models are given. Lift, pitching moments, and rolling moments are given with and without engine failure simulation in ground effect, and with and without pitched and banked conditions.

Renselaer, D. J.↗