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At least 127 records · Page 7

Abrupt Reduction in Shipping Emission as an Inadvertent Geoengineering Termination Shock Produces Substantial Radiative Warming

Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of +0.2±0.11Wm-2 averaged over the global ocean.The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020s anomalously warm. The forcing represents 80% to the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

Tianle Yuan↗

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ionization and temperature measurements in warm dense copper using x-ray absorption spectroscopy

We detail experimental results inferring ionization and temperature for warm dense copper plasmas at several times solid density (15–25 g/cm 3 ) and temperatures of 10–21 eV. Experiments performed at the OMEGA Laser Facility generate uniform warm dense matter conditions via symmetric shock compression of a buried copper layer. The plasma is probed with a laser-generated x-ray source to collect the K-shell x-ray absorption spectrum. Fitting bound-bound absorption contributions from constituent charge states of copper provides an estimated $\overline{Z}$ of approximately 4–7 for these warm dense copper plasmas. We find that these partially ionized plasmas have K-edge shifts of 12–30 eV and bound-bound resonance 1s → 3p absorption shifts of 4–26 eV with respect to the cold K edge. This study provides necessary experimental data to improve ionization and opacity models in the warm dense matter regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Untargeted, tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS) metaproteomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization. This package contains soil metaproteomics data in the context of site specific metagenomes from soil depth profiles in three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. These metaproteomes were collected in 2018 after 4.5 years of warming from five depth intervals (0-10 cm, 10-30 cm, 30-45 cm, 45-60 cm, 60-80 cm). For protein identification, the collected spectra were searched following a target-decoy search strategy against a database of metagenome predicted proteins (covering 96 samples from 2014 to 2021) representing the complete sequence diversity at the site. Data was searched with mass spectrometry database search tool (MS-GF+) using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)'s Data Management System (DMS) Processing pipeline. The metagenomes are published as part of another data package. Raw metaproteomic data and the data products from MS-GF+ are deposited in the Mass Spectrometry Interactive Virtual Environment (MassIVE) database under accession no. MSV000097826. Here we present a dataset that includes spectral counts for the detected proteins across samples (EMSL50964_BrodieAllMAGs_Globals_SC.txt), the sequences of the detected proteins, and sample metadata file that contains site information for the soil metaproteome samples.

Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area↗

Interannual to Decadal Variability in Subarctic Atlantic Ocean Primary Productivity Historical Variability, Dynamics, and Response to Warming

Phytoplankton primary productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean sustains valuable fisheries and exports anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, but multiple Earth system models show that this productivity declines substantially in 21st century global warming scenarios. Prior studies have investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton, which exhibit a prominent but spatially variable spring bloom that is caused by the closely related seasonal cycles in solar radiation and vertical mixing that modulate both phytoplankton growth and loss rates. However, recent work indicates that multi-decade declines in this spring bloom with global warming in multiple Earth system models are driven by reductions in circulation of nutrients from the subtropical and tropical thermocline, rather than local changes in vertical mixing or shortwave radiation in the Subarctic. It is unclear if current models of how phytoplankton productivity varies seasonally or over a century in global warming can be interpolated to explain the interannual to decadal variability. In this poster, I will quantify the interannual to decadal variability of phytoplankton chlorophyll using historical satellite ocean color observations and model simulations with the Community Earth System Model. I will then use the observations and model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and how that variability is restructured in 21st century global warming scenarios.

nterannual↗

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi‐Species Energy‐Banded Ions in the Ionosphere During the 21 January 2005 Magnetic Storm: Low‐Altitude Edge of the Warm Plasma Cloak

During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the FAST satellite observed warm (< few keV) ions in discrete energy bands on the dayside at ∼3,000 km altitude for more than 6.5 hr. We suggest that the ionospheric energy-banded ions represent the low-altitude edge of the warm plasma cloak observed simultaneously by magnetospheric satellites. This is a clear example of the multi-species ion energy bands (10 eV to several keV) observed during strong magnetic storms by the FAST satellite, stretching from the diffuse auroral region to the plasmapause with lifetimes up to 12 hr. The close association of these energy-banded ions with magnetic storms, their broad latitudinal extent, and the presence of multiple ion species in the same energy band, rather than at the same velocity, indicate that this is a distinct phenomenon from other types of energy-banded ions. During the 21–22 January 2005 magnetic storm, the dayside ion energy band structures, centered at 10 eV (H + ), 40 eV (H + and He + ), and 160 eV (H + , He + , and O + ), were consistent with a “time-of-flight and velocity filter” formation process acting on a near-cusp, impulsive outflow of a <200 eV multi-species ion-source population, poleward and in the same hemisphere as FAST. Understanding the sources and dynamics of warm energy-banded ions and their linkage to the warm plasma cloak is important because during superstorms these ions are transported to L values as low as L ∼ 1.2 in the dawn sector, significantly altering the energetics of the mid-latitude ionosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Plant‐Induced Changes Mediate Belowground Carbon Cycling in an Experimentally Warmed Peatland

Warming and elevated atmospheric CO 2 profoundly impact peatland ecosystems, particularly through changes in plant species composition. Plants regulate the initial input of organic compounds to peatland belowground systems, controlling the availability of electron donors and electron acceptors that fuel microbially mediated organic matter decomposition to CO 2 and CH 4 . However, explicit links between porewater CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics and plant-derived chemical compounds remain relatively undefined. In a whole ecosystem warming experiment, we investigated how warming affects plant leaf chemical composition and species assemblages, and how the alteration of leaf-derived organic compounds supplied to the subsurface impacts belowground CO 2 and CH 4 production. While earlier studies at our site found no temperature-dependent changes in CH 4 production pathways, our extended timeseries has revealed increased acetoclastic methanogenesis at higher temperatures in certain peat depths, correlated with elevated porewater phenolics. These changes appear driven by the observed increased plant productivity and altered vegetation inputs, which accelerate decomposition and fuel CH 4 production through enhanced substrate availability. In conclusion, we observed warming-induced changes in molecular composition both between and within plant species, suggesting that plant-mediated controls on belowground carbon processing are more complex than previously recognized.

Wilson, Rachel M. [Florida State Univ., Tallahasse↗

Interconnection of Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions and Cloud Feedback Through Warm Rain Process

Recent research has revealed a correlation within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations: models exhibiting more pronounced warming due to positive cloud feedback simultaneously show enhanced cooling from aerosol‐cloud interactions (ACI). However, the interplay between ACI and cloud feedback is not well understood in these models. Our study addresses this gap by modifying the autoconversion rate in two Earth system models (ESMs), elucidating how ACI could connect with cloud feedback through the warm rain process. We find that higher autoconversion rates, which are associated with stronger ACI, suppress the increase in cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud optical depth with warming by enhancing the precipitation efficiency over the extratropical regions, leading to a larger positive cloud feedback. This study offers new insights into the compensatory mechanism between ACI and cloud feedback through the warm rain process and highlights the importance of constraining the autoconversion parameterization in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

Dataset about Warming Effects on Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Permafrost Ecosystems

Field observations provide direct evidence of how does carbon cycling in permafrost ecosystems respond to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive dataset on the impact of warming on carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in permafrost ecosystems. The dataset is extracted and integrated from 132 peer-reviewed studies with 1430 paired observations across eight major permafrost ecosystems, including Arctic and subarctic tundra and wetland, and alpine meadow, steppe, tundra and wetland. This dataset includes 17 variables from experiments conducted during the growing season, covering the plant and soil carbon pools, soil nitrogen pool, and GHG (i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) fluxes, among others. Background information on site climate conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics, and details of the warming experiments, including timing, methods, and warming magnitude, are also contained in the dataset. This dataset facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the impact of warming on carbon cycling and GHG fluxes in permafrost ecosystems, and provides supports for meta-analyses and literature reviews, remote sensing data validation, and land model development and parameterization.

Bao, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beiji↗

Comparing ab initio and quantum-kinetic approaches to electron transport in warm dense matter

Accurate knowledge of the electronic transport properties of warm dense matter is one of the main concerns of research in high-energy-density physics. Three modern approaches with vastly different levels of fidelity are reviewed and compared: the Kubo–Greenwood (KG) approach based on density-functional-theory molecular dynamics simulations (QMD), quantum kinetic theory based on average-atom models, and time-dependent density functional theory. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the connection between static properties of the electrons (e.g., density of states) and transport properties. Overall, it is found that whenever the conduction electrons can be modeled as being nearly free, fair to excellent agreement is found between QMD and kinetic theory approaches. Such a circumstance is required for modeling warm dense matter as a plasma of ions and free electrons, which is assumed in most kinetic theory approaches. The sensitivity of transport properties to the electronic structure is further highlighted by comparing different exchange–correlation approximations in QMD and KG calculations. It is found that the inclusion of exact exchange via thermal hybrid functionals can make a pronounced impact on electrical and thermal conduction in warm dense matter. We also investigate dynamic screening physics via kinetic theory and time-dependent density functional theory calculations of the mean free path of an electron in a hot dense plasma. In sum, we identify three axes along which to make progress in predicting electron transport in warm dense matter.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Host Species–Microbiome Interactions Contribute to Sphagnum Moss Growth Acclimation to Warming

Sphagnum moss is the dominant plant genus in northern peatlands responsible for long-term carbon accumulation. Sphagnum hosts diverse microbial communities (microbiomes), and its phytobiome (plant host + constituent microbiome + environment) plays a key role in nutrient acquisition along with carbon cycling. Climate change can modify the Sphagnum -associated microbiome, resulting in enhanced host growth and thermal acclimation as previously shown in warming experiments. However, the extent of microbiome benefits to the host and the influence of host–microbe specificity on Sphagnum thermal acclimation remain unclear. Here, we extracted Sphagnum microbiomes from five donor species of four peatland warming experiments across a latitudinal gradient and applied those microbiomes to three germ-free Sphagnum species grown across a range of temperatures in the laboratory. Using this experimental system, we test if Sphagnum 's growth response to warming depends on the donor and/or recipient host species, and we determine how the microbiome's growth conditions in the field affect Sphagnum host growth across a range of temperatures in the laboratory. After 4 weeks, we found that the highest growth rate of recipient Sphagnum was observed in treatments of matched host–microbiome pairs, with rates approximately 50% and 250% higher in comparison to maximum growth rates of non-matched host–microbiome pairs and germ-free Sphagnum , respectively. We also found that the maximum growth rate of host–microbiome pairs was reached when treatment temperatures were close to the microbiome's native temperatures. Our study shows that Sphagnum's growth acclimation to temperature is partially controlled by its constituent microbiome. Strong Sphagnum host–microbiome species specificity indicates the existence of underlying, unknown physiological mechanisms that may drive Sphagnum 's ability to acclimatize to elevated temperatures. Together with rapid acclimation of the microbiome to warming, these specific microbiome–plant associations have the potential to enhance peatland resilience in the face of climate change.

acclimation↗

Metagenome-assembled genomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) TES (Terrestrial Ecosystem Science) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization.Here, we present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community from soil depth profiles collected from 2014 to 2021 from three paired control and warming plots. We collected soil samples across a range of depth profiles (spanning surface to 90 cm deep) from three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. 101 soil metagenomes were sequenced at JGI (Joint Genome Institute) and UCSF (University of California San Francisco) Center for Advanced Technology and can be found under the JGI (Joint Genome Institute) GOLD (Genomes Online Database) Sequencing project Gs0151586 and NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) Projects PRJNA1225762 and PRJEB39497. Metagenomes were assembled using JGI (Joint Genome Institute) Metagenome Workflow (10.1128/mSystems.00804-20). For each metagenome, the assembled contigs were binned into genomes using 3 binning algorithms (cocacola, metabat, and maxbin) and the resulting bins were consolidated using dastool. The consolidated bins from all metagenomes were pooled, filtered by completeness (>50%) and contamination (<25%), and dereplicated at 99% ANI (average nucleotide identity) using dRep (https://github.com/MrOlm/drep).The dataset includes a zip file of 2321 MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) fasta files, the accession numbers for the underlying metagenomes, and a csv file with MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) quality metrics and taxonomic classification (GTDB -Genome Taxonomy Database-RS220). This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. A sample metadata file (samples.csv) that contains site information has also been included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY25 Ion Exchange Processing for the West Area Risk Management (WARM) Project

The West Area Risk Management (WARM) Project was established to enable near-term retrieval and pretreatment of tank waste from Hanford’s 200 West Area and to support deployment of an ion exchange (IX) system capable of producing cesium-depleted supernate suitable for offsite treatment and disposal. The WARM experimental campaign was designed to provide key data for design and operational planning of the 200 W IX system, which plans to utilize crystalline silicotitanate (CST) as the active media for cesium removal. This report documents a comprehensive FY25 experimental campaign designed to produce key technical data required for design and operational planning of the WARM IX system. Testing includes assessing Cs and Sr breakthrough performance in a 4-column system, Cs capacity batch contact testing, phosphate precipitation assessments, reduced-hydroxide feed displacement evaluation, and Sr speciation impacts on Sr removal. The experimental results provide detailed trends in Cs and Sr loading behavior, breakthrough performance across a 4-column staged IX system, distribution profiles within CST beds, and projections of operational flowrates relative to Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) limits. Batch contact testing established equilibrium partitioning behavior for the S1–S5 simulants and characterized how matrix chemistry influenced Cs sorption onto CST. Additionally, further evaluations on waste matrix as it pertains to precipitation potential were also determined. Collectively, these datasets support engineering design choices for WARM system throughput and pretreatment planning.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Oblique instability of quasi-parallel whistler waves in the presence of cold and warm electron populations

Whistler waves propagating nearly parallel to the ambient magnetic field experience a nonlinear instability due to transverse currents when the background plasma has a population of sufficiently low energy electrons. Intriguingly, this nonlinear process may generate oblique electrostatic waves, including whistlers near the resonance cone with properties resembling oblique chorus waves in the Earth’s magnetosphere. Focusing on the generation of oblique whistlers, earlier analysis of the instability is extended here to the case where low-energy background plasma consists of both a “cold” population with energy of a few eV and a “warm” electron component with energy of the order of 100 eV. This is motivated by spacecraft observations in the Earth’s magnetosphere where oblique chorus waves were shown to interact resonantly with the warm electrons. The main new results are: 1) the instability producing oblique electrostatic waves is sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution at low energies. In the whistler range of frequencies, two distinct peaks in the growth rate are typically present for the model considered: a peak associated with the warm electron population at relatively low wavenumbers and a peak associated with the cold electron population at relatively high wavenumbers; 2) overall, the instability producing oblique whistler waves near the resonance cone persists (with a reduced growth rate) even in the cases where the temperature of the cold population is relatively high, including cases where cold population is absent and only the warm population is included; 3) particle-in-cell simulations show that the instability leads to heating of the background plasma and formation of characteristic plateau and beam features in the parallel electron distribution function in the range of energies resonant with the instability. The plateau/beam features have been previously detected in spacecraft observations of oblique chorus waves. However, they have been attributed to external sources and have been proposed to be the mechanism generating oblique chorus. In the present scenario, the causality link is reversed and the instability generating oblique whistler waves is shown to be a possible mechanism for formation of the plateau and beam features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Roadmap for warm dense matter physics

This roadmap presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges and near future developments anticipated in the thriving field of warm dense matter physics. Originating from strongly coupled plasma physics, high pressure physics and high energy density science, the warm dense matter physics community has recently taken a giant leap forward. This is due to spectacular developments in laser technology, diagnostic capabilities, and computer simulation techniques. Only in the last decade has it become possible to perform accurate enough simulations \& experiments to truly verify theoretical results as well as to reliably design experiments based on predictions. Consequently, this roadmap discusses recent developments and contemporary challenges that are faced by theoretical methods, and experimental techniques needed to create and diagnose warm dense matter. A large part of this roadmap is dedicated to specific warm dense matter systems and applications in astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion and novel material synthesis.

FOS: Physical sciences↗