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Earth's Early Reduced Atmospheres

Earth’s early atmosphere evolved in response to cosmic impacts, photochemistry generated by the copious extreme ultraviolet radiation emitted by the young Sun, hydrogen escape, mineral redox buffering, the evolution of iron in the mantle, and the character of crustal weathering and subduction. No single chemical composition, surface pressure, or temperature was typical. After the biggest impacts the temperature likely rose above 3000 K and the atmosphere held rock vapor. As the atmosphere cooled its constituents rained out: first the silicates, then the geochemical volatiles (such as salt), and last the water. Depending on the size of the impact, cooling took thousands to millions of years. Between impacts the atmosphere was thick with gases like CO2, H2, and CH4 that do not condense at Earth but provide greenhouse warming that could easily have maintained surface temperatures in excess of 500 K. At some point the early atmosphere must have been conducive to the evolution of organic chemistry and the origin of life. It was therefore --- at times --- dominated by reduced gases like hydrogen and methane. Hydrogen-methane atmospheres are easily formed thermochemically after major impacts if H2O and CO2 were present on Earth in quantities consistent with their inventories on Earth today – the key is high pressure. Hydrogen-methane atmospheres slowly break down over millions of years by hydrogen escape and photochemistry. At first methane decomposes into tars and nitriles that precipitate, but later as the atmosphere grows more oxidized from hydrogen escape the methane oxidizes to CO and CO2, with a small fraction going to HCN. Impacts can also produce NH3 directly from N2 and H2O, which is expected to rain out with the H2O. As impacts grew infrequent the climate cooled in response to the fixing of CO2 as carbonate and carbonate subduction. Eventually the CO2 was mostly removed to the mantle and the surface mostly frozen.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗

Cloud types and the tropical earth radiation budget

Nimbus-7 cloud and earth radiation budget data are compared in a study of the effects of clouds on the tropical radiation budget. The data consist of daily averages over fixed 500 sq km target areas, and the months of July 1979 and January 1980 were chosen to show the effect of seasonal changes. Six climate regions, consisting of 14 to 24 target areas each, were picked for intensive analysis because they exemplified the range in the tropical cloud/net radiation interactions. It is found that the net radiation is strongly influenced by the average cloud type and amount present, but most net radiation values could be produced by several combinations of cloud types and amount. The regions of highest net radiation (greater than 125 W/sq m) tend to have medium to heavy cloud cover. In these cases, thin medium-altitude clouds predominate. Their cloud tops are normally too warm to be classified as cirrus by the Nimbus cloud algorithm. In the tropical oceans there are large regions where the total regional cloud cover varies from 20 to 90 percent, but with little regional difference in the net radiation. The monsoon and rain areas are high net radiation regions.

Dhuria, Harbans L.↗

Chemical modeling constraints on Martian surface mineralogies formed in an early, warm, wet climate, and speculations on the occurrence of phosphate minerals in the Martian regolith

This is one in a series of reports summarizing our chemical modeling studies of water-rock-gas interactions at the martian surface through time. The purpose of these studies is to place constraints on possible mineralogies formed at the martian surface and to model the geochemical implications of martian surficial processes proposed by previous researchers. Plumlee and Ridley summarize geochemical processes that may have occurred as a result of inferred volcano- and impact-driven hydrothermal activity on Mars. DeBraal et al. model the geochemical aspects of water-rock interactions and water evaporation near 0 C, as a prelude to future calculations that will model sub-0 C brine-rock-clathrate interactions under the current martian climate. In this report, we discuss reaction path calculations that model chemical processes that may have occurred at the martian surface in a postulated early, warm, wet climate. We assume a temperature of 25 C in all our calculations. Processes we model here include (1) the reaction of rainwater under various ambient CO2 and O2 pressures with basaltic rocks at the martian surface, (2) the formation of acid rain by volcanic gases such as HCl and SO2, (3) the reactions of acid rain with basaltic surficial materials, and (4) evaporation of waters resulting from rainwater-basalt interactions.

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.↗

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

CMIP5↗

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗

Cloud types and the tropical Earth radiation budget, revised

Nimbus-7 cloud and Earth radiation budget data are compared in a study of the effects of clouds on the tropical radiation budget. The data consist of daily averages over fixed 500 sq km target areas, and the months of July 1979 and January 1980 were chosen to show the effect of seasonal changes. Six climate regions, consisting of 14 to 24 target areas each, were picked for intensive analysis because they exemplified the range in the tropical cloud/net radiation interactions. The normal analysis was to consider net radiation as the independent variable and examine how cloud cover, cloud type, albedo and emitted radiation varied with the net radiation. Two recurring themes keep repeating on a local, regional, and zonal basis: the net radiation is strongly influenced by the average cloud type and amount present, but most net radiation values could be produced by several combinations of cloud types and amount. The regions of highest net radiation (greater than 125 W/sq m) tend to have medium to heavy cloud cover. In these cases, thin medium altitude clouds predominate. Their cloud tops are normally too warm to be classified as cirrus by the Nimbus cloud algorithm. A common feature in the tropical oceans are large regions where the total regional cloud cover varies from 20 to 90 percent, but with little regional difference in the net radiation. The monsoon and rain areas are high net radiation regions.

Dhuria, Harbans L.↗

A regional rainfall climatology over Mexico and the southwest United States derived from passive microwave and geosynchronous infrared data

A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗

Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa

One of the primary sources of predictability for seasonal hydroclimate forecasts are sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Multiyear La Niña events in particular may be both predictable at long lead times and favor drought in the bimodal rainfall regions of East Africa. However, SST patterns in the tropical Pacific and adjacent ocean basins often differ substantially between first- and second-year La Niñas, which can change how these events affect regional climate. Here, we demonstrate that multiyear La Niña events favor drought in the Horn of Africa in three consecutive seasons [October–December (OND), March–May (MAM), OND]. But they do not tend to increase the probability of a fourth season of drought owing to the sea surface temperatures and associated atmospheric teleconnections in the MAM long rains season following second-year La Niña events. First-year La Niñas tend to have both greater subsidence over the Horn of Africa, associated with warmer waters in the west Pacific that enhance the Walker circulation, and greater cross-continental moisture transport, associated with a warm tropical Atlantic, as compared to second-year La Niñas. Both the increased subsidence and enhanced cross-continental moisture transport favors drought in the Horn of Africa. Our results provide a physical understanding of the sources and limitations of predictability for using multiyear La Niña forecasts to predict drought in the Horn of Africa.

Climate variability↗

Deciphering the Role of Desert Dust in the Climate Puzzle: The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX)

Numerous studies have shown that aerosol particles may be one of the primary agents that can offset the climate warming induced by the increase in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Desert aerosols are probably the most abundant and massive type of aerosol particles that are present in the atmosphere worldwide. These aerosols are carried over large distances and have various global impacts. They interact with clouds, impact the efficiency of their rain production and change their optical properties. They constitute one of the primary sources of minerals for oceanic life and influence the health of coral reefs. They have direct effects on human health, especially by inducing breathing difficulties in children. It was lately discovered that desert particles carry pathogens from the Sahara desert over the Atlantic Ocean, a fact that may explain the migration of certain types of diseases. Aerosols not only absorb solar radiation but also scatter it, so that their climatic effect is influenced not only by their physical properties and height distribution but also by the reflectivity of the underlying surface. This latter property changes greatly over land and is low over ocean surfaces. Aerosol plumes are emitted from discrete, sporadic sources in the desert areas of the world and are transported worldwide by the atmosphere's wind systems. For example, Saharan dust reaches Mexico City, Florida, Ireland, Switzerland and the Mediterranean region, while Asian dust reaches Alaska, Hawaii and the continental United States. This means that in order to assess its global effects, one must observe dust from space. The Space Shuttle is a unique platform, because it flies over the major deserts of our planet, enabling measurements and remote sensing of the aerosols as they travel from source to sink regions. Such efforts must always be accompanied by in-situ data for validation and calibration, with direct sampling of the airborne particles. MEIDEX is a joint project of the Israel Space Agency (ISA) and NASA, under a cooperation agreement between the two agencies.

Levin, Zev↗

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring (TRMM) - What Have We Learned and What Does the Future Hold?

Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Kummerow, C.↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Energy, volatile production, and climatic effects of the Chicxulub Cretaceous/Tertiary impact

A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact. Additional volatiles may have been produced on a global or regional scale that formed sulfate aerosols rapidly in cooler parts of the vapor plume, causing an early, intense pulse of sulfuric acid rain. Estimates of the conversion rate of stratospheric SO2 and water vapor to sulfate aerosol, based on volcanic production of sulfate aerosols, coupled with calculations of diffusion, coagulation, and sedimentation, demonstrate that the 200 Gt stratospheric SO2 and water vapor reservoir would produce sulfate aerosols for 12 years. These sulfate aerosols caused a second pulse of acid rain that was global. Radiative transfer modeling of the aerosol clouds demonstrates (1) that if the initial rapid pulse of sulfate aerosols was global, photosynthesis may have been shut down for 6 months and (2) that for the second prolonged aerosol cloud, solar transmission dropped 80% by the end of first year and remained 50% below normal for 9 years. As a result, global average surface temperatures probably dropped between 5 degrees and 31 degrees K, suggesting that global near-freezing conditions may have been reached. Impact-generated CO2 caused less than 1 degree K greenhouse warming and therefore was insignificant compare to the sulfate cooling. The magnitude of sulfate cooling depends largely upon the rate of ocean mixing as surface waters cool, sink, and are replaced by upwelling of deep ocean water. This upwelling apparently drastically altered ocean stratification and circulation, which may explain the global collapse of the delta 13C gradient between surface and deep ocean waters at the K/T boundary.

NASA Center JPL↗

Possible Analogs for Small Valleys on Mars at the Haughton Impact Crater Site, Devon Island, Canadian High Arctic

Small valleys are perhaps the clearest evidence for an aqueous past on Mars. While small valley formation has occurred even in Amazonian times, most small valleys on Mars are associated with the heavily cratered Noachian terrains. Martian small valleys are often cited as evidence for a putative warmer and wetter climate on Early Mars in which rain and subsequent surface runoff would have acted as significant erosional agents, but the morphology of many small valleys has at the same time been recognized as having several unusual characteristics, making their origin still enigmatic and climatic inferences from them uncertain. Meanwhile, martian climate modeling efforts have been facing difficulties over the past decades with the problem of making the early martian climate warm enough to achieve temperature above 273 K to allow rainfall and the sustained flow of liquid water at the martian surface.

Lee, P.↗

Earth after the Moon-forming Impact

The Hadean Earth is widely and enduringly pictured as a world of exuberant volcanism, exploding meteors, huge craters, infernal heat, and billowing sulfurous steams; i.e., a world of fire and brimstone punctuated with blows to the head. In the background the Moon looms gigantic in the sky. The popular image has given it a name that celebrates our mythic roots. A hot early Earth is an inevitable consequence of accretion. The Moon-forming impact ensured that Earth as we know it emerged from a fog of silicate vapor. The impact separated the volatiles from the silicates. It took approx. 100 years to condense and rain out the bulk of the vaporized silicates, although relatively volatile elements may have remained present in the atmosphere throughout the magma ocena stage. The magma ocean lasted approx. 2 Myr, its lifetime prolonged by tidal heating and thermal blanketing by a thick CO2-rich steam atmosphere. Water oceans condensed quickly after the mantle solidified, but for some 10-100 Myr the surface would have stayed warm (approx. 500 K) until the CO2 was removed into the mantle. Thereafter the faint young Sun suggests that a lifeless Earth would always have been evolving toward a bitterly cold ice world, but the cooling trend was fiequently interrupted by volcanic or impact induced thaws. A cartoon history of water, temperature, and carbon dioxide in the aftermath of the moon-formining-impact is shown. How long it stays hot depends on how long it takes to scrub the C02 out of the atmosphere.

Zahnle, K. J.↗

Earth After the Moon Forming Impact

The Hadean Earth is widely and enduringly pictured as a world of exuberant volcanism, exploding meteors, huge craters, infernal heat, and billowing sulfurous steams; i.e., a world of fire and brimstone punctuated with blows to the head. In the background the Moon looms gigantic in the sky. The popular image has given it a name that celebrates our mythic roots. A hot early Earth is an inevitable consequence of accretion. The Moon-forming impact ensured that Earth as we know it emerged from a fog of silicate vapor. The impact separated the volatiles from the silicates. It took -100 years to condense and rain out the bulk of the vaporized silicates, although relatively volatile elements may have remained present in the atmosphere throughout the magma ocena stage. The magma ocean lasted approx. 2 Myr, its lifetime prolonged by tidal heating and thermal blanketing by a thick (CO2-rich steam atmosphere. Water oceans condensed quickly after the mantle solidified, but for some 10-100 Myr the surface would have stayed warm (approx. 500 K) until the CO2 was removed into the mantle. Thereafter the faint young Sun suggests that a lifeless Earth would always have been evolving toward a bitterly cold ice world, but the cooling trend was frequently interrupted by volcanic or impact induced thaws.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability - Part 2

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Wang, zhuo↗