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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Structural Analysis of Core and Image Log of TGH 76-31 South East of Mt Baker, Washington State

Despite active volcanism, few geothermal energy resources have been developed in the Cascades Range. Temperature Gradient Hole 76-31 was drilled to ~440 m measured depth to probe for zones where fractures provide fluid conduits that transport deep volcanic heat to shallow depths that could support baseload, carbon neutral electrical generation. These zones were predicted by a Play Fairway assessment (PFA) of resource potential along a zone 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker Volcano. Rock core, temperature logs, and an acoustic image log were obtained. By comparison to outcrops, the core has been initially interpreted as the Chilliwack group comprised of partially metamorphosed basaltic to andesitic volcanics. Core mapping reveals complex, steeply dipping networks of fractures and brecciation along slickensided strike slip faults; clay alteration is common in many of these structures. The majority of fractures are thoroughly healed by layers of chlorite and calcite; preservation of pyrite indicates anoxic conditions. The majority of fracture porosity resides in very dense fractures a few centimeters or less in length. The image log provides good insights into attitude of fractures that fully transect the core, but generally underestimates fracture density. The combination of complex, non-planar fracture zones containing many short fractures and healing promote misinterpretation of natural fracture attitude and density in the image log. The healing and anoxic minerals are consistent with the conductive temperature gradient measured in the well below a shallow isothermal zone, although, several fractures are open or only partially healed and resulted in fluid entries into the well. Here, the equilibrated measured temperature gradient of 64ºC/km and calculated heat flow of 145 mW/m2 is more than twice the regional average, indicating local influence of the Mt Baker magmatic system at the Little Park Creek TGH site.

Cascades↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal potential of Harrat Rahat, Northern Arabian Shield: geological constraints

Arabian Shield offers a strong potential for geothermal energy. However, only a limited amount of exploration effort has taken place. Harrat Rahat is a recent volcanic area located along the Makkah-Madinah-Nafud volcanic line in western Saudi Arabia. This study is oriented to identify the geothermal potential of Harrat Rahat. The geologic data was collected and processed. Here, we focus on evaluating the potential sources of subsurface heat and groundwater. Subsurface heat is based on the age of erupted volcanoes and the expected volume of subsurface magma chambers. An analogy with an existing geothermal field in a similar setting as Mexico suggests that the faults and the coincident seismicity may be associated with higher permeability. It is concluded that Harrat Rahat is characterized by a good geothermal potential for future geothermal energy source production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

Aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2022

Volcano infrasound: progress and future directions

Over the past two decades (2000–2020), volcano infrasound (acoustic waves with frequencies less than 20 Hz propagating in the atmosphere) has evolved from an area of academic research to a useful monitoring tool. As a result, infrasound is routinely used by volcano observatories around the world to detect, locate, and characterize volcanic activity. It is particularly useful in confirming subaerial activity and monitoring remote eruptions, and it has shown promise in forecasting paroxysmal activity at open-vent systems. Fundamental research on volcano infrasound is providing substantial new insights on eruption dynamics and volcanic processes and will continue to do so over the next decade. The increased availability of infrasound sensors will expand observations of varied eruption styles, and the associated increase in data volume will make machine learning workflows more feasible. More sophisticated modeling will be applied to examine infrasound source and propagation effects from local to global distances, leading to improved infrasound-derived estimates of eruption properties. Future work will use infrasound to detect, locate, and characterize moving flows, such as pyroclastic density currents, lahars, rockfalls, lava flows, and avalanches. Infrasound observations will be further integrated with other data streams, such as seismic, ground- and satellite-based thermal and visual imagery, geodetic, lightning, and gas data. The volcano infrasound community should continue efforts to make data and codes accessible and to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion in the field. In summary, the next decade of volcano infrasound research will continue to advance our understanding of complex volcano processes through increased data availability, sensor technologies, enhanced modeling capabilities, and novel data analysis methods that will improve hazard detection and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Seismic identification of geothermal prospecting in Harrat Rahat, Northern Arabian Shield

Harrat Rahat volcanic field lies along the Makkah-Madinah-Nafud active volcanic line. It has extensive linear weak zones of wrench faults that could provide ideal conduits for upwelling magma and hydrothermal fluids as well. Here, passive seismic data recorded by seismic stations installed within and around Harrat Rahat has been processed for the detection of microseismic events. Moreover, ambient noise was also gathered and analyzed to construct a subsurface velocity model. This model indicates low velocity zone in Harrat Rahat, and two areas with coincident basement faults and possibly with enhanced subsurface temperatures were identified. It is concluded that Harrat Rahat has high geothermal potential and promising for geothermal renewable power.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering hidden geothermal signatures using non-negative matrix factorization with customized k-means clustering

Discovery of hidden geothermal resources is challenging. It requires the mining of large datasets with diverse data attributes representing subsurface hydrogeological and geothermal conditions. The commonly used play fairway analysis approach typically incorporates subject-matter expertise to analyze regional data to estimate geothermal characteristics and favorability. We demonstrate an alternative approach based on machine learning (ML) to process a geothermal dataset from southwest New Mexico (SWNM). The study region includes low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems. Several of these systems are not well characterized because of insufficient existing data and limited past explorative work. This study discovers hidden patterns and relations in the SWNM geothermal dataset to improve our understanding of the regional hydrothermal conditions and energy-production favorability. This understanding is obtained by applying an unsupervised ML algorithm based on non-negative matrix factorization coupled with customized k-means clustering (NMFk). NMFk can automatically identify (1) hidden signatures characterizing analyzed datasets, (2) the optimal number of these signatures, (3) the dominant data attributes associated with each signature, and (4) the spatial distribution of the extracted signatures. Here, in this study, NMFk is applied to analyze 18 geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and geothermal attributes at 44 locations in SWNM. Using NMFk, we find data patterns and identify the spatial associations of hydrothermal signatures within two physiographic provinces (Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range) and two sub-regions of these provinces (the Mogollon-Datil volcanic field and the Rio Grande rift) in SWNM. The ML algorithm extracted five hydrothermal signatures in the SWNM datasets that differentiate between low (<90°C) and medium (90-150°C)-temperature hydrothermal systems. The algorithm also suggests that the Rio Grande rift and northern Mogollon-Datil volcanic field are the most favorable regions for future geothermal resource discovery. NMFk also identified critical attributes to identify medium-temperature hydrothermal systems in the study area. The resulting NMFk model can be applied to predict geothermal conditions and their uncertainties at new SWNM locations based on limited data from unexplored regions. The code to execute the performed analyses as well as the corresponding data can be found at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermo-hydrologic processes in maar eruptions: The role of vapor transport and condensation

Phreatomagmatic eruptions occur when magma interacts directly with water or slurries, commonly from groundwater in the shallow crust, resulting in rapid conversion of thermal energy to mechanical energy in a set of processes known as molten fuel-coolant interaction (MFCI). The efficiency of MFCI is controlled by properties of the magma and coolant, contact surface geometry, and system conditions, such as pressure and temperature; phreatomagmatic behavior can range from passive thermal granulation to violent thermohydraulic explosions (Zimanowski et al., 2015). Maar-diatreme eruptions, characterized by repetitive phreatomagmatic explosions, can form in a wide range of near-surface environments, from soft sediment substrate (e.g., Tecuitlapa, Mexico, Ort and Carrasco-Núñez, 2009; Hopi Buttes, AZ, Lefebvre et al., 2013) to hard, fractured country rock (e.g., West Eifel volcanic field, Germany and Massif Central, France, Lorenz, 2003). Country-rock structure, including faults and joints, rock type, and shallow crustal hydrologic properties, can influence an eruption’s behavior by controlling how much and at what rate water can be supplied to the magma (hydraulic flow rate), and determining the sediment: water ratio in the case of soft-sediment substrate eruptions. In a “soft” substrate environment, volcanic tremor can lead to liquefaction of saturated sediment, producing a slurry that may then interact with magma in unique ways (White, 1996; Auer, et al., 2006).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification and Description of a Silicic Volcaniclastic Layer in Gale Crater, Mars, Using Active Neutron Interrogation

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons instrument aboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, has been used to map a stratigraphically-conformable layer of high-SiO 2 material in Gale crater. Previous work has shown this material contains tridymite, a high-temperature/low-pressure felsic mineral, interpreted to have a volcanic source rock. We describe several characteristics including orientation, extent, hydration, and geochemistry, consistent with a volcaniclastic material conformably deposited within a lacustrine mudstone succession. Relationships with widely dispersed alteration features and orbital detections of hydrated SiO 2 suggest that this high-SiO 2 layer extends at least 17 km laterally. Mineralogical abundances previously reported for this high-SiO 2 material indicated that hydrous species were restricted to the amorphous (non-crystalline) fraction, which is dominated by SiO2. The low mean bulk hydration of this high-SiO 2 layer (1.85 ± 0.13 wt.% water-equivalent hydrogen) is consistent with silicic glass in addition to opal-A and opal- CT. Persistent volcanic glass and tridymite in addition to opal in an ancient sedimentary unit indicates that the conversion to more ordered forms of crystalline SiO 2 has not proceeded to completion and that this material has had only limited exposure to water since it originally erupted, despite having been transported in a uviolacustrine system. Our results, including the conformable nature, large areal extent, and presence of vol- canic glass, indicate that this high-SiO 2 material is derived from the product of evolved magma on Mars. This is the rst identi cation of a silicic volcaniclastic layer on another planet, and has important implications for magma evolution mechanisms on single-plate planets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Abstract Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter b ‐value decreased as a function of total uplift. In the final six months before the eruption, a sequence of large ( M > 4) earthquakes regulated the state of stress on the fault, each being followed by 2–3 days of postseismic quiescence, and retarding the increase in seismicity rate. These earthquakes did not affect the overall uplift rate. Subsidence of 8.5 m accompanied the 2‐month eruption. On resumption of uplift, the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift was very low, and the b ‐value high, reflecting the relaxed stress state of the fault system. These observations show that crustal deformation becomes increasingly brittle at higher stress states, and supports theoretical models based on elastic‐brittle mechanics. They suggest that joint interpretation of deformation and seismicity is key for forecasting future eruptions in similar volcanic settings.

Bell, Andrew Forbes↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global Nuclear Explosion Discrimination Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Using P-wave seismograms, we trained a seismic source classifier using a Convolutional Neural Network. We trained for three classes: earthquake P-wave, underground nuclear explosion (UNE) P-wave, and noise. With the current absence of nuclear testing by countries that have signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, high quality seismic data from UNEs is limited. Even with limited training data, our model can accurately characterize most events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, finding over 95% signals in the validation set. We applied the model on holdout datasets of the North Korean test explosions to evaluate the performance on unique region and station-source pairs, with promising results. Additionally, we tested on the Source Physics Experiment events to investigate the potential for chemical explosions to act as a surrogate for nuclear explosions. We anticipate that machine-learning models like our classifier system can have broad application for other seismic signals including volcanic and non-volcanic tremor, anomalous earthquakes, ice-quakes or landslide-quakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How Did Westward Volcaniclastic Deposits Accumulate in the Deep Sea Following the January 2022 Eruption of Hunga Volcano?

Most volcanic eruptions on Earth take place below the ocean surface and remain largely unobserved. Reconstruction of past submerged eruptions has thus primarily been based on the study of seafloor deposits. Rarely before the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano (Kingdom of Tonga) have we been able to categorically link deep-sea deposits to a specific volcanic source. This eruption was the largest in the modern satellite era, producing a 58-km-tall plume, a 20-m high tsunami, and a pressure wave that propagated around the world. The eruption induced the fastest submarine density currents ever measured, which destroyed submarine telecommunication cables and traveled at least 85 km to the west to the neighboring Lau Basin. Here we report findings from a series of remotely operated vehicle dives conducted 4 months after the eruption along the Eastern Lau Spreading Center-Valu Fa Ridge. Hunga-sourced volcaniclastic deposits 7–150 cm in thickness were found at nine sites, and collected. Study of the internal structure, grain size, componentry, glass chemistry, and microfossil assemblages of the cores show that these deposits are the distal portions of at least two ~100-km-runout submarine density currents. We identify distinct physical characteristics of entrained microfossils that demonstrate the dynamics and pathways of the density currents. Microfossil evidence suggests that even the distal parts of the currents were erosive, remobilizing microfossil-concentrated sediments across the Lau Basin. Remobilization by volcaniclastic submarine density currents may thus play a greater role in carbon transport into deep sea basins than previously thought.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2026

Southern Ocean Sulfate Aerosol Sources Quantified From Sulfur Isotopes in Antarctic Ice Cores

The Southern Ocean has emerged as a key region for constraining aerosol-climate interactions due to its relatively low anthropogenic influence. Sulfate is an important aerosol over the Southern Ocean, and models suggest dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the largest source of sulfate during summer. However, sulfur isotopes of sulfate (δ 34 S(SO 4 2− )) in Antarctic ice cores suggest a significant contribution from a previously unexplained non-DMS source. Here we show that the fractional contribution from passive volcanic degassing (f volc ) explains observed δ 34 S(SO 4 2− ), and that a global chemical transport model underestimates f volc across Antarctica. Underestimated f volc implies that the model mischaracterizes sulfate sources in this important region. The discrepancy between observed and modeled sulfate sources can be reconciled by increasing passive volcanic sulfur degassing emissions and decreasing DMS emissions. Our results imply that current biases in emissions inventories could bias assessments of aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Ocean region and globally.

Jongebloed, Ursula A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗
DOE OSTI2020

A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming

Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29–53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950–2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010–2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The stability of subducted glaucophane with the Earth’s secular cooling

The blueschist to eclogite transition is one of the major geochemical–metamorphic processes typifying the subduction zone, which releases fluids triggering earthquakes and arc volcanism. Although glaucophane is an index hydrous mineral for the blueschist facies, its stability at mantle depths in diverse subduction regimes of contemporary and early Earth has not been experimentally determined. Here, we show that the maximum depth of glaucophane stability increases with decreasing thermal gradients of the subduction system. Along cold subduction geotherm, glaucophane remains stable down ca. 240 km depth, whereas it dehydrates and breaks down at as shallow as ca. 40 km depth under warm subduction geotherm or the Proterozoic tectonic setting. Our results imply that secular cooling of the Earth has extended the stability of glaucophane and consequently enabled the transportation of water into deeper interior of the Earth, suppressing arc magmatism, volcanism, and seismic activities along subduction zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standing shock prevents propagation of sparks in supersonic explosive flows

Abstract Volcanic jet flows in explosive eruptions emit radio frequency signatures, indicative of their fluid dynamic and electrostatic conditions. The emissions originate from sparks supported by an electric field built up by the ejected charged volcanic particles. When shock-defined, low-pressure regions confine the sparks, the signatures may be limited to high-frequency content corresponding to the early components of the avalanche-streamer-leader hierarchy. Here, we image sparks and a standing shock together in a transient supersonic jet of micro-diamonds entrained in argon. Fluid dynamic and kinetic simulations of the experiment demonstrate that the observed sparks originate upstream of the standing shock. The sparks are initiated in the rarefaction region, and cut off at the shock, which would limit their radio frequency emissions to a tell-tale high-frequency regime. We show that sparks transmit an impression of the explosive flow, and open the way for novel instrumentation to diagnose currently inaccessible explosive phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations

Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infrasonic directivity of monopole, dipole and bipole ground-surface reflected sources

Infrasound (acoustic waves below 20 Hz) can be used to detect, locate and quantify activity in the atmosphere such as volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic explosions. Attempts to quantify volcanic eruption parameters such as exit velocity, plume height and mass flow rate using infrasound data depend strongly on assumptions of the acoustic source type. Infrasonic sources may produce omnidirectional or directional wavefields, while propagation effects, such as interaction with topography, can induce further wavefield directivity that is measured by field instrumentation. Limited sampling of these wavefields can hinder our ability to infer the underlying source, and thus our understanding of the eruption characteristics. Equivalent sources are often used to represent acoustic source mechanisms and resultant wavefields. In this study, we review equivalent acoustic sources as they pertain to infrasonic scale and wavelengths commonly encountered in very local (⁠<5 km range) geophysical field deployments. We highlight the equivalent infrasonic bipole source that can be induced by ground-reflection of an elevated monopole; we are not aware of any prior infrasound studies that use the bipole source concept. We use analytical and numerical methods to explore source directivity of monopole, dipole and bipole ground-reflected sources at infrasonic frequencies as well as the additional directivity complications introduced by interactions with topography. We illustrate that for typical volcano-infrasound wavelengths, increasing height above the ground as well as increasing source frequency leads to increased wavefield directivity. Numerical modelling using a simple omnidirectional monopole source embedded in topography further illustrates that both horizontal and vertical infrasound directionality can be induced by topography at the distance scales appropriate for local volcano infrasound monitoring. Information summarized in this analytical and numerical exploration of infrasound directivity may be used to help guide future volcano-infrasound field deployments intended to estimate source parameters or quantify wavefield directivity. Analytic solutions for simple whole-space or half-space atmospheres provide useful formulations for planning or initially analysing geophysical field-scale experimental data; however, especially at very local distances from the source (⁠<5 km), 3-D simulations are necessary to account for complex topography commonly encountered in volcano-infrasound applications.

Infrasound↗