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DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain

Abstract Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists’ human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

ecosystem functioning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Heterothermic Migration Strategies in Flying Vertebrates

Migration is a widespread and highly variable trait among animals. Population-level patterns arise from individual-level decisions, including physiological and energetic constraints. Many aspects of migration are influenced by behaviors and strategies employed during periods of stopover, where migrants may encounter variable or unpredictable conditions. Thermoregulation can be a major cost for homeotherms which largely encounter ambient temperatures below the lower critical temperature during migration, especially during the rest phase of the daily cycle. In this review we describe the empirical evidence, theoretical models, and potential implications of bats and birds that use heterothermy to reduce thermoregulatory costs during migration. Torpor-assisted migration is a strategy described for migrating temperate insectivorous bats, whereby torpor can be used during periods of inactivity to drastically reduce thermoregulatory costs and increase net refueling rate, leading to shorter stopover duration, reduced fuel load requirement, and potential consequences for broad-scale movement patterns and survival. Hummingbirds can adopt a similar strategy, but most birds are not capable of torpor. However, there is an increasing recognition of the use of more shallow heterothermic strategies by diverse bird species during migration, with similarly important implications for migration energetics. A growing body of published literature and preliminary data from ongoing research indicate that heterothermic migration strategies in birds may be more common than traditionally appreciated. We further take a broad evolutionary perspective to consider heterothermy as an alternative to migration in some species, or as a conceptual link to consider alternatives to seasonal resource limitations. There is a growing body of evidence related to heterothermic migration strategies in bats and birds, but many important questions related to the broader implications of this strategy remain.

bats↗

DOE OSTI2022

N-dependent dynamics of root growth and nitrate and ammonium uptake are altered by the bacterium Herbaspirillum seropedicae in the cereal model Brachypodium distachyon

Nitrogen (N) fixation in cereals by root-associated bacteria is a promising solution for reducing use of chemical N fertilizers in agriculture. However, plant and bacterial responses are unpredictable across environments. We hypothesized that cereal responses to N-fixing bacteria are dynamic, depending on N supply and time. To quantify the dynamics, a gnotobiotic, fabricated ecosystem (EcoFAB) was adapted to analyse N mass balance, to image shoot and root growth, and to measure gene expression of Brachypodium distachyon inoculated with the N-fixing bacterium Herbaspirillum seropedicae. Phenotyping throughput of EcoFAB-N was 25–30 plants h -1 with open software and imaging systems. Herbaspirillum seropedicae inoculation of B. distachyon shifted root and shoot growth, nitrate versus ammonium uptake, and gene expression with time; directions and magnitude depended on N availability. Primary roots were longer and root hairs shorter regardless of N, with stronger changes at low N. At higher N, H. seropedicae provided 11% of the total plant N that came from sources other than the seed or the nutrient solution. The time-resolved phenotypic and molecular data point to distinct modes of action: at 5 mM NH 4 NO 3 the benefit appears through N fixation, while at 0.5 mM NH 4 NO 3 the mechanism appears to be plant physiological, with H. seropedicae promoting uptake of N from the root medium.Future work could fine-tune plant and root-associated microorganisms to growth and nutrient dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of very-high-energy gamma-ray transients with monitoring facilities

ABSTRACT The observation of very-high-energy γ-rays (VHE γ-rays, $E \gt 100\,$ GeV) has ledto the identification of extremely energetic processes and particle-acceleration sites both within our Galaxy and beyond. It is expected that VHE facilities, such as the Cherenkov Telescope Array, will explore these sources with an unprecedented level of detail. However, the transient and unpredictable nature of many important processes means that their observation requires the development of proper monitoring strategies. In this study, we estimate the properties of VHE transients that can be effectively detected by monitoring facilities. We use data collected by the Fermi-LAT instrument during its monitoring campaign to select events that are probably associated with VHE emission. We use this sample to estimate the frequency, the luminosity and the time-scales of various transients, focusing on blazar flares and gamma-ray bursts. We discuss how the balance between the field of view, sensitivity and duty cycle of an observatory affects the likelihood of detecting transients that occur at the inferred rates, and we conclude by describing the contribution that current and near-future monitoring facilities can make to the identification and study of VHE transient emission.

La Mura, G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Newton versus the machine: solving the chaotic three-body problem using deep neural networks

ABSTRACT Since its formulation by Sir Isaac Newton, the problem of solving the equations of motion for three bodies under their own gravitational force has remained practically unsolved. Currently, the solution for a given initialization can only be found by performing laborious iterative calculations that have unpredictable and potentially infinite computational cost, due to the system’s chaotic nature. We show that an ensemble of converged solutions for the planar chaotic three-body problem obtained using an arbitrarily precise numerical integrator can be used to train a deep artificial neural network (ANN) that, over a bounded time interval, provides accurate solutions at a fixed computational cost and up to 100 million times faster than the numerical integrator. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of training an ANN using converged solutions from an arbitrary precise integrator, relative to solutions computed by a conventional fixed precision integrator, which can introduce errors in the training data, due to numerical round-off and time discretization, that are learned by the ANN. Our results provide evidence that, for computationally challenging regions of phase space, a trained ANN can replace existing numerical solvers, enabling fast and scalable simulations of many-body systems to shed light on outstanding phenomena such as the formation of black hole binary systems or the origin of the core collapse in dense star clusters.

Breen, Philip G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗

DOE OSTI2022

Burning questions for a warming and changing world: 15 unknowns in plant abiotic stress

Abstract We present unresolved questions in plant abiotic stress biology as posed by 15 research groups with expertise spanning eco-physiology to cell and molecular biology. Common themes of these questions include the need to better understand how plants detect water availability, temperature, salinity, and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels; how environmental signals interface with endogenous signaling and development (e.g. circadian clock and flowering time); and how this integrated signaling controls downstream responses (e.g. stomatal regulation, proline metabolism, and growth versus defense balance). The plasma membrane comes up frequently as a site of key signaling and transport events (e.g. mechanosensing and lipid-derived signaling, aquaporins). Adaptation to water extremes and rising CO2 affects hydraulic architecture and transpiration, as well as root and shoot growth and morphology, in ways not fully understood. Environmental adaptation involves tradeoffs that limit ecological distribution and crop resilience in the face of changing and increasingly unpredictable environments. Exploration of plant diversity within and among species can help us know which of these tradeoffs represent fundamental limits and which ones can be circumvented by bringing new trait combinations together. Better defining what constitutes beneficial stress resistance in different contexts and making connections between genes and phenotypes, and between laboratory and field observations, are overarching challenges.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Stand Age and Fertilization on the Soil Microbiome of Miscanthus × giganteus

Yield of the perennial grass Miscanthus × giganteus has shown an inconsistent and unpredictable response to nitrogen (N) fertilizer, yet fertilization underpins the crop’s environmental and economic sustainability. The interactions among soil microbial communities, N availability, and Miscanthus × giganteus and management may explain changes in plant productivity. In this study, soil samples from different stand ages of Miscanthus × giganteus in a replicated chronosequence field trial were used to investigate the effects of stand age and N fertilizer rates on microbial community structure. We hypothesized that there is a definable Miscanthus × giganteus soil microbiome and that this community varies significantly with stand age and fertilization. Our results showed that the main phyla in soil microbial communities, regardless of plant age, are similar but microbial community structures are significantly different. The variation in observed microbial communities generally decreases with older stand ages. The amount of N fertilizer applied also affected the microbial community structure associated with different aged Miscanthus × giganteus. Specifically, the relative abundance of Proteobacteria (Alphaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria) and Acidobacteria (subgroup Gp1) increased shortly after fertilization and was more associated with younger Miscanthus × giganteus. Furthermore, our results show a significant relationship between bacterial α diversity and fertilization rates and that this response is also affected by stand age. Overall, our results emphasize linkages between microbial community structure, plant age, and fertilization in Miscanthus × giganteus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Induced Density Wave in a Kagome Superconductor

On the kagome lattice, electrons benefit from the simultaneous presence of band topology, flat electronic bands, and Van Hove singularities, forming competing or cooperating orders. Understanding the interrelation between these distinct order parameters remains a significant challenge, leaving much of the associated physics unexplored. In the kagome superconductor KV 3 Sb 5 , which exhibits a charge density wave (CDW) state below T ≃ 78 K, we uncover an unpredicted field-induced phase transition below 6 K. The observed transition is marked by a hysteretic anomaly in the resistivity, nonlinear electrical transport, and a change in the symmetry of the electronic response as probed via the angular dependence of the magnetoresistivity. These observations surprisingly suggest the emergence of an unanticipated broken symmetry state coexisting with the original CDW. To understand this experimental observation, we developed a theoretical minimal model for the normal state inside the high-temperature parent CDW phase, where an incommensurate CDW order emerges as an instability subleading to superconductivity. Here, the incommensurate CDW emerges when superconducting fluctuations become fully suppressed by large magnetic fields. Our results suggest that, in kagome superconductors, quantum states can either coexist or are nearly degenerate in energy, indicating that these are rich platforms to expose new correlated phenomena.

Charge density waves↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approximate entropy analysis for nonlinear beam dynamics

In this paper, we applied an approximate entropy (ApEn) analysis to nonlinear beam dynamics. Due to the presence of strong nonlinear magnets, the degree of chaos in beam motion gradually increases proportionally with its amplitude. Such chaos can be quantitatively characterized with ApEn of beam turn-by-turn readings. ApEn analysis is a technique used to quantify the amount of regularity and the unpredictability of fluctuations with respect to time-series data. The ApEn, when applied as a chaos indicator, can then be used for nonlinear lattice optimization and analysis. The National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) electron storage ring lattice was used as an example of a real-world application of our technique. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exponential Escape Rate of Filamentary Incubation in Mott Spiking Neurons

Mott materials such as vanadium oxides, when subject to a strong applied voltage, present an inhomogeneous insulator-to-metal transition with formation of metallic filaments within the insulating bulk. This property is enabling the development of compact and power-efficient neuromorphic devices known as Mott neurons. However, the nature of the transition has not been fully understood yet, as it may be attributed to different effects, including Joule self-heating and hot-carrier injection. Moreover, the experimental determination of the threshold voltage needed to induce the transition has proven to be challenging, as the transition becomes increasingly unpredictable when the threshold is approached. The physical understanding of these issues would not only deepen our understanding of Mott insulators, but would also be an important step toward the realization of neuromorphic devices based on such materials. In this work we use numerical simulations based on the Mott resistor network model to study the nature of the filament incubation and formation process. Here, we show that both electronic and thermal effects, in the form of current density focusing and Joule self-heating, respectively, contribute to the filamentary incubation and growth. Remarkably, we find that the percolation of the metallic filaments near the threshold is intrinsically stochastic, qualitatively similar to the familiar Arrhenius activated behavior and to the stochastic firing of biological neurons. More precisely, we characterize the filament percolation as a Poisson point process, which has the same probability distribution as mathematical models of neuronal firing with an exponential escape rate. Finally, we support the numerical simulation results by performing experiments in VO 2 that are in agreement with the exponential escape rate behavior. Thus, we establish a functionality of Mott insulators that opens a path toward implementing neuromorphic hardware with quantum materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chaos in inhomogeneous neutrino fast flavor instability

In dense neutrino gases, the neutrino-neutrino coherent forward scattering gives rise to a complex flavor oscillation phenomenon not fully incorporated in simulations of neutron star mergers (NSM) and core collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Moreover, it has been proposed to be chaotic, potentially limiting our ability to predict neutrino flavor transformations in simulations. To address this issue, we explore how small flavor perturbations evolve in the nonlinear regime of the neutrino quantum kinetic equation within a narrow centimeter-scale region inside a NSM and a toy neutrino distribution. Our findings reveal that paths in the flavor state space of solutions with similar initial conditions diverge exponentially, exhibiting chaos. This inherent chaos makes the microscopic scales of neutrino flavor transformations unpredictable. However, the domain-averaged neutrino density matrix remains relatively stable, with chaos minimally affecting it. This particular property suggests that domain-averaged quantities remain reliable despite the exponential amplification of errors. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accounting for electron-beam-induced warping of molecular nanocrystals in MicroED structure determination

High-energy electrons induce sample damage and motion at the nanoscale to fundamentally limit the determination of molecular structures by electron diffraction. Using a fast event-based electron counting (EBEC) detector, we characterize beam-induced, dynamic, molecular crystal lattice reorientations (BIRs). These changes are sufficiently large to bring reciprocal lattice points entirely in or out of intersection with the sphere of reflection, occur as early events in the decay of diffracted signal due to radiolytic damage, and coincide with beam-induced migrations of crystal bend contours within the same fluence regime and at the same illuminated location on a crystal. These effects are observed in crystals of biotin, a series of amino acid metal chelates, and a six-residue peptide, suggesting that incident electrons inevitably warp molecular lattices. The precise orientation changes experienced by a given microcrystal are unpredictable but are measurable by indexing individual diffraction patterns during beam-induced decay. Reorientations can often tilt a crystal lattice several degrees away from its initial position before irradiation, and for an especially beam-sensitive Zn(II)-methionine chelate, are associated with dramatic crystal quakes prior to 1 e − Å −2 electron beam fluence accumulates. Since BIR coincides with the early stages of beam-induced damage, it echoes the beam-induced motion observed in single-particle cryoEM. As with motion correction for cryoEM imaging experiments, accounting for BIR-induced errors during data processing could improve the accuracy of MicroED data.

Vlahakis, Niko (ORCID:0000000250920265)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Toward 100% Renewable Power Grids: A Review

The transition to a 100% renewable power grid remains beset by significant technical challenges. This paper critically examines the obstacles arising from the variability and unpredictability of renewable energy sources (RES), which complicate the real-time balancing of power generation and load demand. In addition to traditional stability concerns (e.g., rotor angle, voltage, and frequency stability), the increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduces novel challenges, including resonance stability issues and converter-driven dynamics. Moreover, the dynamic behavior and fault response of IBRs diverge markedly from those of conventional synchronous generators, rendering traditional protection schemes increasingly inadequate. This paper reviews state-of-the-art solutions in power balancing, grid flexibility, stability enhancement, and advanced protection strategies, discussing their implications for future grid design. The analysis provides a comprehensive assessment of recent technological advancements, thereby outlining critical research directions essential for achieving a resilient, 100% renewable power grid.

100% renewable power grid↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Economic Dispatch and Load-Following Strategies for Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems

The need for distributed and adaptable energy resources that can handle the growing unpredictability in both supply and demand is rising as the power system continues to modernize. In order to satisfy those needs and maintain grid resilience, nuclear power plants can dynamically control their output, despite typically being used as baseload generators. By incorporating energy storage and renewable energy sources, nuclear integrated energy systems are designed to satisfy the electrical and thermal demands of different end-user applications while ensuring flexible power operation. These systems generate revenue by participating in both wholesale and ancillary services electricity markets, as well as commodity markets for various byproducts generated from coupled industrial processes. This study addresses the economic dispatch efficiency of a tightly coupled nuclear integrated energy system comprising a gigawatt-scale light water reactor, commercialized in the U.S., a high-temperature steam electrolysis unit, a district heating network, and specified electrical loads. To demonstrate the nuclear power plant’s flexibility within the day-ahead unit commitment and economic dispatch framework, while maintaining equilibrium even during periods of refueling outages, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming framework that models the subsystems and components of its nuclear steam supply system. A systematic comparative analysis of flexible versus baseload nuclear power plant operation under varying levels of renewable energy integration indicates that flexible operation enhances system profitability by more than 18% while also increasing energy storage utilization, improving reactor responsiveness to load fluctuations, and allowing for greater participation across numerous electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗