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Search for proton decay via 𝑝 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝜂 and 𝑝 → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜂 with a 0.37 Mton-year exposure of Super-Kamiokande

A search for proton decay into 𝑒 + /𝜇 + and a 𝜂 meson has been performed using data from a 0.373 Mton·year exposure (6050.3 live days) of Super-Kamiokande. Compared to previous searches this work introduces an improved model of the intranuclear 𝜂 interaction cross section, resulting in a factor of 2 reduction in uncertainties from this source and ∼10% increase in signal efficiency. No significant data excess was found above the expected number of atmospheric neutrino background events resulting in no indication of proton decay into either mode. Lower limits on the proton partial lifetime of 1.4 × 10 34 years for 𝑝 → 𝑒 + ⁢𝜂 and 7.3 × 10 33 years for 𝑝 → 𝜇 + ⁢𝜂 at the 90% CL were set. These limits are around 1.5 times longer than our previous study and are the most stringent to date.

Grand unified models↗

Proton internal pressure from deeply virtual Compton scattering on collider kinematics

Abstract The unique experimental connection to the QCD energy–momentum tensor offered by generalised parton distributions has been strongly highlighted in the past few years with attempts to extract the pressure and shear forces distributions within the nucleon. If, in principle, this can be performed in a model independent way from experimental data, in practice, the current limited precision and kinematic coverage make such an extraction very challenging. Moreover, the limitation to a leading-order description in the strong coupling of the data has provided only an indirect and weakly sensitive access to gluon degrees of freedom, solely through their mixing to quarks via evolution. In this paper we address this issue by providing a next-to-leading order formalism allowing a reanalysis of global fits with genuine gluonic degrees of freedom. In addition, we provide an estimate of the reduction in uncertainty that could stem from the extended kinematic range relevant for the future Electron Ion Collider. Finally, we stress the connection between the analysis of the dispersion relation in terms of generalised parton distributions and the deconvolution problem.

Dutrieux, H. (ORCID:0000000183344885)↗

Probing interfacial momentum closures in two-phase bubbly flow with machine learning-aided methods

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach has already reached a high level of maturity for single-phase flows, however the development of closure models for two-phase flow requires additional attention. Multiphase CFD (M-CFD) methods resolve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy while differing in the approaches and strategies adopted in the physical closure models. The most widely adopted framework for M-CFD is the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid approach which assumes that all phases are co-existing inside each computational cell. For each fluid, the full set of conservation equations is solved; therefore, each fluid has a different velocity field. For adiabatic two-phase flow, the mechanisms of the interfacial momentum transfer are modeled by the interfacial forces representing different physical mechanisms. One of the crucial issues in the development and application of two-fluid model is the understanding of the interfacial momentum closures which determines the bubble distribution and migration behaviors. Dedicated experiments are performed to support the physical understanding and drive the closures’ development. However, limitations exist due to the uncertainties in the experimental measurement and the simplified analytical assumptions which have difficulties on representing the complex non-linear flow fields. In this paper, a data-driven approach, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM), is developed and proposed to resolve the challenges of modeling the interfacial forces closures. Case study is performed with two-phase flow scenarios where the high-fidelity experimental data is available. Within the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid framework, only momentum equations for gas and liquid phases are solved and reduced-order interfacial momentum closures are aided with FSM. Predictions of void fraction and velocity fields are analyzed and demonstrate the potential of machine learning-driven interfacial forces closures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

Compaction of crushed salt for safe containment – a summary of the KOMPASS projects

Abstract. For the underground disposal of high-level nuclear waste in rock salt formations, the safety concept includes the backfilling of open cavities with crushed salt. For the prognosis of the sealing function of the backfill for the safe containment of the radioactive waste, it is crucial to have a comprehensive process understanding of the crushed-salt compaction behavior. The crushed-salt compaction process is influenced by internal properties (e.g., grain size, mineralogy, and moisture content) and boundary conditions (e.g., temperature, stress state, and compaction rate) and, therefore, involves several coupled thermal–hydro–mechanical (THM) processes (Hansen et al., 2014; Kröhn et al., 2017). With the paradigm shift from the limited release of radionuclides to safe containment due to the German Repository Site Selection Act passed in 2017, the importance of crushed salt as geotechnical barrier has increased, with a focus on the evolution of its hydraulic properties. Based on the knowledge gaps in the current process understanding, the “Compaction of crushed salt for safe containment” (KOMPASS) projects were initiated to improve the scientific basis behind using crushed salt for the long-term isolation of high-level nuclear waste within rock salt repositories. The efforts to improve the prediction of crushed-salt compaction begun during the first phase of the KOMPASS projects (Czaikowski et al., 2020) and were followed up in a second phase ending in June 2023. The primary achievements of the projects are as follows (Czaikowski et al., 2020; Friedenberg et al., 2022): specification of the KOMPASS reference material, an easily available and reproducible synthetic crushed-salt material, for generic investigations; development of pre-compaction methods and successful production of samples in the short term and under in situ loading conditions; formulation of an extended laboratory program addressing the isolated investigation of known relevant factors influencing the compaction behavior of crushed salt (Düsterloh et al., 2022); execution of long-term compaction tests addressing isotropic and deviatoric load changes, temperature, and compaction state; construction of a backfill body using the KOMPASS reference material in the Sondershausen mine through collaboration with the SAVER (Entwicklung eines salzgrusbasierten Versatzkonzepts unter der Option Rückholbarkeit) project (Schaarschmidt and Friedenberg, 2022); advancement of the tools for microstructure investigation methods (Svensson and Laurich, 2022); generation (first stages) of a microphysical process list combining literature research with our own findings; benchmarking of long-term compaction test for model development and optimization of various existing models as well as the development of new models; application of a virtual demonstrator (2D model representing a backfilled drift in rock salt) for the visualization of developments and the quantification of the models (Rabbel, 2022). In summary, the KOMPASS projects contributed to the reduction of uncertainties and the strengthening of the safety case for using crushed salt within rock salt repositories.

Friedenberg, Larissa↗

Reduction of flow-measurement uncertainties in laser velocimeters with nonorthogonal channels

An analysis of certain geometrical limitations inherent in the application of laser velocimeters with nonorthogonal channels has led to the development of advanced-LDA-calibration and data-acquisition techniques that minimize systematic and statistical errors, respectively. The data-acquisition technique optimizes the number of velocity samples collected from three velocimeter channels as a function of local turbulence intensity, vector direction, and prescribed confidence interval. Linear velocity surveys and streamline traces measured in a turbulent flow field with a three-dimensional laser velocimeter are presented and the validity and accuracy of the theoretical analysis are discussed.

Snyder, P. K.↗

A review of turbulent-boundary-layer heat transfer research at Stanford, 1958-1983

For the past 25 years, there has existed in the Thermosciences Laboratory of the Mechanical Engineering Department of Stanford University a research program, primarily experimental, concerned with heat transfer through turbulent boundary layers. In the early phases of the program, the topics considered were the simple zero-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layer with constant and with varying surface temperature, and the accelerated boundary layer. Later equilibrium boundary layers were considered along with factors affecting the boundary layer, taking into account transpired flows, flows with axial pressure gradients, transpiration, acceleration, deceleration, roughness, full-coverage film cooling, surface curvature, free convection, and mixed convection. A description is provided of the apparatus and techniques used, giving attention to the smooth plate rig, the rough plate rig, the full-coverage film cooling rig, the curvature rig, the concave wall rig, the mixed convection tunnel, and aspects of data reduction and uncertainty analysis.

Moffat, R. J.↗

Shuttle payload dynamic environments - Update

This paper represents a brief summary of a report titled, 'Shuttle Payload Bay Dynamic Environments Summary and Conclusion Report' prepared by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory for the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST). The report provides a summary of the dynamic environmental data taken during the first five Space Shuttle flights. The present paper is concerned with a brief synopsis of the report's acoustic and high frequency data evaluation, taking into account also an example acoustic prediction method. Attention is given to an acoustic data summary, a vibration data summary, environmental uncertainties, data reduction errors, spatial bias errors, payload effects, spatial variation, flight to flight variation, payload prediction, and an example prediction.

Oconnell, M.↗

Least squares collocation applied to local gravimetric solutions from satellite gravity gradiometry data

An autonomous spaceborne gravity gradiometer mission is being considered as a post Geopotential Research Mission project. The introduction of satellite diometry data to geodesy is expected to improve solid earth gravity models. The possibility of utilizing gradiometer data for the determination of pertinent gravimetric quantities on a local basis is explored. The analytical technique of least squares collocation is investigated for its usefulness in local solutions of this type. It is assumed, in the error analysis, that the vertical gravity gradient component of the gradient tensor is used as the raw data signal from which the corresponding reference gradients are removed to create the centered observations required in the collocation solution. The reference gradients are computed from a high degree and order geopotential model. The solution can be made in terms of mean or point gravity anomalies, height anomalies, or other useful gravimetric quantities depending on the choice of covariance types. Selected for this study were 30 x 30 foot mean gravity and height anomalies. Existing software and new software are utilized to implement the collocation technique. It was determined that satellite gradiometry data at an altitude of 200 km can be used successfully for the determination of 30 x 30 foot mean gravity anomalies to an accuracy of 9.2 mgal from this algorithm. It is shown that the resulting accuracy estimates are sensitive to gravity model coefficient uncertainties, data reduction assumptions and satellite mission parameters.

Robbins, J. W.↗

The Isolated Synthetic Jet in Crossflow: A Benchmark for Flow Control Simulation

An overview of the data acquisition, reduction, and uncertainty of experimental measurements of the flowfield created by the interaction of an isolated synthetic jet and a turbulent boundary layer is presented. The experimental measurements were undertaken to serve as the second of three computational fluid dynamics validation databases for Active Flow Control. The validation databases were presented at the NASA Langley Research Center Workshop on CFD Validation of Synthetic Jets and Turbulent Separation Control in March, 2004. Detailed measurements were made to document the boundary conditions for the flow and also for the phase-averaged flowfield itself. Three component Laser-Doppler Velocimetry, 2-D Particle Image Velocimetry, and Stereo Particle Image Velocimetry were utilized to document the phase averaged velocity field and the turbulent stresses.

Schaeffler, Norman W.↗

The Isolated Synthetic Jet in Crossflow: A Benchmark for Flow Control Simulation

An overview of the data acquisition, reduction, and uncertainty of experimental measurements made of the flowfield created by the interaction of an isolated synthetic jet and a turbulent boundary layer is presented. The experimental measurements were undertaken to serve as the second of three computational fluid dynamics validation databases for Active Flow Control. The validation databases were presented at the NASA Langley Research Center Workshop on CFD Validation of Synthetic Jets and Turbulent Separation Control in March, 2004. Detailed measurements were made to document the boundary conditions for the flow and also for the phase-averaged flowfield itself. Three component Laser-Doppler Velocimetry, 2-D Particle Image Velocimetry, and Stereo Particle Image Velocimetry were utilized to document the phase-averaged velocity field and the turbulent stresses.

Schaeffler, Norman W.↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.↗

Object-Oriented MDAO Tool with Aeroservoelastic Model Tuning Capability

An object-oriented multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization (MDAO) tool has been developed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to automate the design and analysis process and leverage existing commercial as well as in-house codes to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the preliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic aircraft. Once the structural analysis discipline is finalized and integrated completely into the MDAO process, other disciplines such as aerodynamics and flight controls will be integrated as well. Simple and efficient model tuning capabilities based on optimization problem are successfully integrated with the MDAO tool. More synchronized all phases of experimental testing (ground and flight), analytical model updating, high-fidelity simulations for model validation, and integrated design may result in reduction of uncertainties in the aeroservoelastic model and increase the flight safety.

Pak, Chan-gi↗

The Extravehicular Suit Impact Load Attenuation Study for Use in Astronaut Bone Fracture Prediction

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fracture of the proximal femur is a traumatic injury that would likely result in loss of mission if it were to happen during spaceflight. The low gravity exposure causes decreases in bone mineral density which heightens the concern. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have quantified bone fracture probability during spaceflight with a probabilistic model. It was assumed that a pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit would attenuate load during a fall, but no supporting data was available. The suit impact load attenuation study was performed to collect analogous data. METHODS: A pressurized EVA suit analog test bed was used to study how the offset, defined as the gap between the suit and the astronaut s body, impact load magnitude and suit operating pressure affects the attenuation of impact load. The attenuation data was incorporated into the probabilistic model of bone fracture as a function of these factors, replacing a load attenuation value based on commercial hip protectors. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offsets. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1 - 1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22 and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400 and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8 - 5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1 and 0.84 +/- 0.5, for the same mean impact forces. Reductions were observed in the 95th percentile confidence interval of the bone fracture probability predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and operational decisions.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Assessment of Nuclear Data Needs for Advanced Reactor Demonstrations: Application to the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE)

A number of advanced reactor concepts are planned for near-term demonstrations including microreactors, larger demonstrations and space nuclear systems. These reactor concepts are based on a wide variety of reactor technologies, including sodium, gas, and salt cooling. An overlooked area in the development and ultimate startup of these reactors is addressing nuclear data needs that allow confident prediction of the criticality, safety requirements, and operation of the reactors. In this paper we try to address the problem of assessing nuclear data needs and possible remedies to reduce the existing uncertainties for advanced nuclear reactors. A methodology for defining these needs is described. The case of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) has been considered and the related investigation highlights the specific needs for reducing uncertainty on the 235U capture and 35Cl (n,p) reactions. Integral experiments relatively inexpensive are indicated as possible solution for significantly reduce the current associated uncertainties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗