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NASA NTRS2013

Evidence of Temporal Variation of Titan Atmospheric Density in 2005-2013

One major science objective of the Cassini mission is an investigation of Titan's atmosphere constituent abundances. Titan's atmospheric density is of interest not only to planetary scientists but also to mission design and mission control engineers. Knowledge of the dependency of Titan's atmospheric density with altitude is important because any unexpectedly high atmospheric density has the potential to tumble the spacecraft during a flyby. During low-altitude Titan flyby, thrusters are fired to counter the torque imparted on the spacecraft due to the Titan atmosphere. The denser the Titan's atmosphere is, the higher are the duty cycles of the thruster firings. Therefore thruster firing telemetry data could be used to estimate the atmospheric torque imparted on the spacecraft. Since the atmospheric torque imparted on the spacecraft is related to the Titan's atmospheric density, atmospheric densities are estimated accordingly. In 2005-2013, forty-three low-altitude Titan flybys were executed. The closest approach altitudes of these Titan flybys ranged from 878 to 1,074.8 km. Our density results are also compared with those reported by other investigation teams: Voyager-1 (in November 1980) and the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument, HASI (in January 2005). From our results, we observe a temporal variation of the Titan atmospheric density in 2005-2013. The observed temporal variation is significant and it isn't due to the estimation uncertainty (5.8%, 1 sigma) of the density estimation methodology. Factors that contributed to this temporal variation have been conjectured but are largely unknown. The observed temporal variation will require synergetic analysis with measurements made by other Cassini science instruments and future years of laboratory and modeling efforts to solve. The estimated atmospheric density results are given in this paper help scientists to better understand and model the density structure of the Titan atmosphere.

Atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the representation and estimation of spatial uncertainty

This paper describes a general method for estimating the nominal relationship and expected error (covariance) between coordinate frames representing the relative locations of objects. The frames may be known only indirectly through a series of spatial relationships, each with its associated error, arising from diverse causes, including positioning errors, measurement errors, or tolerances in part dimensions. This estimation method can be used to answer such questions as whether a camera attached to a robot is likely to have a particular reference object in its field of view. The calculated estimates agree well with those from an independent Monte Carlo simulation. The method makes it possible to decide in advance whether an uncertain relationship is known accurately enough for some task and, if not, how much of an improvement in locational knowledge a proposed sensor will provide. The method presented can be generalized to six degrees of freedom and provides a practical means of estimating the relationships (position and orientation) among objects, as well as estimating the uncertainty associated with the relationships.

Smith, Randall C.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Validation of Regional CO2 Concentrations in the ECMWF Real-Time Analysis and Carbon-Tracker Reanalysis with Airborne Observations from ACT-A Field Campaign

Through verifying against hundreds of hours of airborne in-situ measurements from the NASA-sponsored Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-A) field campaign, this study systematically examines the regional uncertainties and biases of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from two of the state-of-the-art global analysis products, namely the real-time analysis from the European Center (EC) for Medium Range Forecasting and NOAA’s near real-time Carbon Tracker (CT) reanalysis. It is found that both the EC and CT-NRT analyses agree reasonably well with the independent ACT-A flight-level CO2 measurements in the free troposphere but the uncertainties are considerably larger in the boundary layer during both the summer months of 2016 and the winter months of 2017. There are also strong variabilities in accuracy and bias between seasons, and across three different subregions in the United States (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South). Overall, the analysis uncertainties of the EC and CT-NRT analyses in terms of root-mean square deviations against airborne data are comparable to each other, both of which are between 1-2 ppm in the free troposphere but can be as large as 10 ppm near the surface, which are grossly consistent with the difference between the two analyses. The current study not only provides systematic uncertainty estimates for both analysis products over North America but also demonstrated that these two independent estimates can be used to approximate the overall regional CO2 analysis uncertainties. Both statistics are important in future studies in quantifying the uncertainties of regional carbon concentration and flux estimates, as well as in assessing the impact of regional transport through more refined regional modeling and analysis systems.

Chen, Hans W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Allowable Trajectory Variations for Space Shuttle Orbiter Entry-Aeroheating CFD

Reynolds-number criteria are developed for acceptable variations in Space Shuttle Orbiter entry trajectories for use in computational aeroheating analyses. The criteria determine if an existing computational fluid dynamics solution for a particular trajectory can be extrapolated to a different trajectory. The criteria development begins by estimating uncertainties for seventeen types of computational aeroheating data, such as boundary layer thickness, at exact trajectory conditions. For each type of datum, the allowable uncertainty contribution due to trajectory variation is set to be half of the value of the estimated exact-trajectory uncertainty. Then, for the twelve highest-priority datum types, Reynolds-number relations between trajectory variation and output uncertainty are determined. From these relations the criteria are established for the maximum allowable trajectory variations. The most restrictive criterion allows a 25% variation in Reynolds number at constant Mach number between trajectories.

Wood, William A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Side by Side Comparison of Filter-Based PM(sub 2.5) Measurements at a Suburban Site: A Closure Study

Reliable determination of the effects of air quality on public health and the environment requires accurate measurement of PM(sub 2.5) mass and the individual chemical components of fine aerosols. This study seeks to evaluate PM(sub 2.5) measurements that are part of a newly established national network by comparing them with a more conventional sampling system. Experiments were carried out during 2002 at a suburban site in Maryland, United States, where two samplers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Speciation Trends Network: Met One Speciation Air Sampling System STNS and Thermo Scientific Reference Ambient Air Sampler STNR, two Desert Research Institute Sequential Filter Samplers DRIF, and a continuous TEOM monitor (Thermo Scientific Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance) were sampling air in parallel. These monitors differ not only in sampling configuration but also in protocol-specific sample analysis procedures. Measurements of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were well correlated among the different methods with r-values > 0.8. Despite the good correlations, daily concentrations of PM(sub 2.5) mass and major contributing species were significantly different at the 95% confidence level from 5 to 100% of the time. Larger values of PM(sub 2.5) mass and individual species were generally reported from STNR and STNS. The January STNR average PM(sub 2.5) mass (8.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 1.5 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. The July STNS average PM(sub 2.5) mass (27.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter) was 3.8 (micro)g/per cubic meter larger than the DRIF average mass. These differences can only be partially accounted for by known random errors. Variations in flow control, face velocity, and sampling artifacts likely influence the measurement of PM(sub 2.5) speciation and mass closure. Simple statistical tests indicate that the current uncertainty estimates used in the STN network may underestimate the actual uncertainty.

Haines, Jennifer C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Distribution of SLS Integrated Load Uncertainty to Surface Pressures and Sectional Loads

Aerodynamic loads that are important to launch vehicle programs such as NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) include both integrated loads such as the force & moment on the entire vehicle and distributed loads. In this work two examples of distributed loads are considered: the pressure field on the surface of the vehicle and sectional loads, which are one-dimensional distributions along the axis of the launch vehicle. In some modern flight programs, the integrated loads, such as lift and drag, used to design the guidance and control laws for the vehicle come from wind tunnel testing, while distributed loads are produced using Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD). The first task that is addressed in this paper, then, is to provide a formal method to adjust the distributed loads so that integrating them matches the prescribed integrated load. In addition, the integrated loads in a launch vehicle typically include an uncertainty estimate. The second task is to distribute this prescribed integrated uncertainty to each point in a distributed load. Both tasks are addressed using the same technique, which is to create distributed load profiles that isolate adjustments to one integrated load while leaving the others unaffected. These adjustments are informed by Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) of the entire CFD-based distributed load database. Once applied, the adjusted distributed loads can be used to evaluate any scalar quantity of interest that might be needed by downstream users such as structural analysis or trajectory modelers.

SLS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the turbulence simulation overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura White↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD Validation Study of a Hypersonic Cone-Slice-Flap Variable Geometry Configuration

Model validation is the process of determining the degree of accuracy between physical reality and the model. The result of model validation can either be used to improve the model through calibration or quantify the model-form uncertainty. This work focuses on providing the model-form uncertainty through an area metric for a hypersonic cone-slice-flap variable geometry configuration given uncertainty in both the simulation and experimental data. The research here compares two different turbulence models for the simulations. For a variable geometry, performing uncertainty quantification to capture the model-form uncertainty on every configuration is computationally challenging. This work lays out a procedure that can give an accurate representation of the model-form uncertainty using a small number of high-fidelity runs and many low-fidelity runs on multiple configurations. Running this comparison provides a quantifiable measurement for the accuracy of each turbulence model for this type of design. The high-fidelity CFD solver used was VULCAN-CFD and the low-fidelity results came from Cart3D. The experimental data came from the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel located at NASA Langley Research Center. The present work showed that the using both the Spalart and Allamaras and Menter Shear-Stress Transport turbulence models overpredicted the drag and lift coefficient, while underpredicting the pitching moment coefficient. The model-form uncertainty estimate resulted in up to a 13.6% change in the total uncertainty for the drag coefficient, up to a 57.4% change in total uncertainty for the lift coefficient, and up to a 100% change in total uncertainty for the pitching moment coefficient.

Laura M. White↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented.

Seago, J..↗

NASA NTRS2020

Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Neural Networks for Bayesian Inference of Model Uncertainty

The objective of this work was to develop a genetic optimization algorithm that can design a neural network capable of producing uncertainty estimates along with predictions. This algorithm is necessary because the inclusion of uncertainty modeling in a neural network greatly complicates the network’s design space, making the development of a converging model extremely difficult and time consuming. The genetic algorithm presented in this work uses a number of value ranges for various configurable neural network parameters to create a randomly generated population of network architectures. The initially generated population is then evolved over the course of several generations, with the best performing models breeding to produce novel network configurations. Mutations are randomly applied to the network designs to facilitate the development of adaptations beneficial to the task being performed. An experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, in which the genetic optimizer was tasked with producing a neural network capable of predicting the sound pressure level (SPL) resulting from jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise. The data used for this task was generated at the NASA Glenn Research Center in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory. Starting with an initial population size of 35 randomly generated networks, and evolved over the course of 10 generations, the genetic algorithm produced a design able to predict SPL as a result of JSI noise within 0.272 dB, on average.

Genetic algorithm↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Tyler James Thorsen↗

NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-12 Free-Jet Probe Calibration Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis thf at was performed for the Free Jet Calibration Facility (CE-12) located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for systematic uncertainty estimates in a number of fluid properties of the free jet flow are presented. Systematic uncertainty captures inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other similar sources which may introduce bias. MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation uncertainty and engineering judgment was used to quantify other systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

CE-12↗

NASA NTRS2011

Overview of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project

NASA's space-based observations of physical, chemical and biological parameters in the Earth System along with state-of-the-art modeling capabilities provide unique capabilities for analyses of the carbon cycle. The Carbon Monitoring System is developing an exploratory framework for detecting carbon in the environment and its changes, with a view towards contributing to national and international monitoring activities. The Flux-Pilot Project aims to provide a unified view of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, using observation-constrained models. Central to the project is the application of NASA's satellite observations (especially MODIS), the ACOS retrievals of the JAXA-GOSAT observations, and the "MERRA" meteorological reanalysis produced with GEOS-S. With a primary objective of estimating uncertainty in computed fluxes, two land- and two ocean-systems are run for 2009-2010 and compared with existing flux estimates. An transport model is used to evaluate simulated CO2 concentrations with in-situ and space-based observations, in order to assess the realism of the fluxes and how uncertainties in fluxes propagate into atmospheric concentrations that can be more readily evaluated. Finally, the atmospheric partial CO2 columns observed from space are inverted to give new estimates of surface fluxes, which are evaluated using the bottom-up estimates and independent datasets. The focus of this presentation will be on the science goals and current achievements of the pilot project, with emphasis on how policy-relevant questions help focus the scientific direction. Examples include the issue of what spatio-temporal resolution of fluxes can be detected from polar-orbiting satellites and whether it is possible to use space-based observations to separate contributions to atmospheric concentrations of (say) fossil-fuel and biological activity

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of CFD as a Surrogate for Wind Tunnel Testing - Experimental Uncertainty Quantification

A series of wind tunnel tests is being performed at the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at Langley Research Center to assess the validity of using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) as a surrogate for wind tunnel testing. In order to make proper comparisons, uncertainties in CFD results and experimental data must be well understood. The material presented will highlight the methods, assumptions, and elemental inputs used to achieve experimental uncertainty estimates for several variables of interest.The work performed to date has focused on gaining insight into random uncertainty via statistical analysis of repeat data and systematic uncertainty via Monte Carlo propagation analysis. These methods were combined using a second-order Monte Carlo propagation, resulting in a probability box (P-box) for each variable and at all conditions of interest. Figure 1 provides an example of one such P-box, showing the experimental uncertainty in a locally determined dynamic pressure (QC10) for one of many tunnel conditions evaluated during the Flow Survey experiment. This particular condition (Condition 27) has nominal set points of Mach number = 3.85, Reynolds number = 3x10(exp 6) ft(exp -1), total pressure = 5160 psfa, and total temperature = 150°F. The uncertainty in dynamic pressure at this condition is now well defined by this plot. Armed with this experimental data uncertainty, meaningful comparisons can be made with computational results, when their associated uncertainties are also considered.

Heather P Houlden↗

NASA NTRS2003

Sonoluminescence Bubble Measurements using Vision-Based Algorithms

Vision-based measurement methods were used to measure bubble sizes in this sonoluminescence experiment. Bubble imaging was accomplished by placing the bubble between a bright light source and a microscope-CCD camera system. A collimated light-emitting diode was operated in a pulsed model with an adjustable time delay with respect to the piezo-electric transducer drive signal. The light-emitting diode produced a bubble shadowgraph consisting of a multiple exposure made by numerous light pulses imaged onto a charge-couple device camera. Each image was transferred from the camera to a computer-controlled machine vision system via a frame grabber. The frame grabber was equipped with on-board memory to accomodate sequential image buffering while images were transferred to the host processor and analyzed. This configuration allowed the host computer to perform diameter measurements, centroid position measurements and shape estimation in "real-time" as the next image was being acquired. Bubble size measurement accuracy with an uncertainty of 3 microns was achieved using standard lenses and machine vision algorithms. Bubble centroid position accuracy was also within the 3 micron tolerance of the vision system. This uncertainty estimation accounted for the optical spatial resolution, digitization errors and the edge detection algorithm accuracy. The vision algorithms include camera calibration, thresholding, edge detection, edge position determination, distance between two edges computations and centroid position computations.

Hall, Nancy R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Assessment of MODIS-Derived Visible and Near-IR Aerosol Optical Properties and their Spatial Variability in the Presence of Mineral Dust

Mineral dust aerosol is among the most difficult aerosol species to measure quantitatively from space. In this paper, we evaluate MODIS retrievals of spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the visible to the near-IR off the US West Coast using measurements taken by the NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer, AATS-14, during the EVE (Extended-MODIS-lambda Validation Experiment, 2004) campaign in April of 2004. In EVE, a total of 35 and 49 coincident over-ocean suborbital measurements at the nominal level-2 retrieval scale of 10 km x 10 km were collected for Terra and Aqua, respectively. For MODIS-Terra about 80% of the AOD retrievals are within the estimated uncertainty, DELTA tau = plus or minus 0.03 plus or minus 0.05 tau; this is true for both the visible (here defined to include 466-855 nm) and near-IR (here defined to include 1243-2119 nm) retrievals. For MODIS-Aqua about 45% of the AOD retrievals are within DELTA tau = plus or minus 0.03 plus or minus 0.05 tau; the fraction of near-IR retrievals that fall within this uncertainty range is about 27%. We found an rms difference of 0.71 between the sunphotometer snd MODIS-Aqua estimates of the visible (553-855 nm) Angstrom exponent, while the MODIS-Terra visible Angstrom exponents show an rms difference of only 0.29 when compared to AATS. The cause of the differences in performance between MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua could be instrument calibration and needs to be explored further. The spatial variability of AOD between retrieval boxes as derived by MODIS is generally larger than that indicated by the sunphotometer data.

Redemann, J.↗