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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Advancements in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 database – automated near-real-time quality control algorithm with improved cloud screening for Sun photometer aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) has provided highly accurate, ground-truth measurements of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) using Cimel Electronique Sun–sky radiometers for more than 25 years. In Version 2 (V2) of the AERONET database, the near-real-time AOD was semiautomatically quality controlled utilizing mainly cloud-screening methodology, while additional AOD data contaminated by clouds or affected by instrument anomalies were removed manually before attaining quality-assured status (Level 2.0). The large growth in the number of AERONET sites over the past 25 years resulted in significant burden to the manual quality control of millions of measurements in a consistent manner. The AERONET Version 3 (V3) algorithm provides fully automatic cloud screening and instrument anomaly quality controls. All of these new algorithm updates apply to near-real-time data as well as post-field-deployment processed data, and AERONET reprocessed the database in 2018. A full algorithm redevelopment provided the opportunity to improve data inputs and corrections such as unique filter-specific temperature characterizations for all visible and near-infrared wavelengths, updated gaseous and water vapor absorption coefficients, and ancillary data sets. The Level 2.0 AOD quality-assured data set is now available within a month after post-field calibration, reducing the lag time from up to several months. Near-real-time estimated uncertainty is determined using data qualified as V3 Level 2.0 AOD and considering the difference between the AOD computed with the pre-field calibration and AOD computed with pre-field and post-field calibration. This assessment provides a near-real-time uncertainty estimate for which average differences of AOD suggest a +0.02 bias and one sigma uncertainty of 0.02, spectrally, but the bias and uncertainty can be significantly larger for specific instrument deployments. Long-term monthly averages analyzed for the entire V3 and V2 databases produced average differences (V3–V2) of +0.002 with a ±0.02 SD (standard deviation), yet monthly averages calculated using time-matched observations in both databases were analyzed to compute an average difference of −0.002 with a ±0.004 SD. The high statistical agreement in multiyear monthly averaged AOD validates the advanced automatic data quality control algorithms and suggests that migrating research to the V3 database will corroborate most V2 research conclusions and likely lead to more accurate results in some cases.

David M. Giles↗
NASA NTRS1982

Jovian winds from Voyager 2. I - Zonal mean circulation

Independent measurements of Jovian cloud motions confirm previously published results on the general structure of Jupiter's zonal mean circulation. The new results are based on Voyager 2 images and measurement techniques which are different from those used in previous studies. The latitudes of the zonal jets agree with previous results, but there are some differences in the measured speed of the jets which exceed uncertainty estimates. These differences may be due to differences in sampling strategies. The structure of the zonal mean meridional velocity profile has still not been clearly resolved: mean meridional velocities generally differ from zero by no more than their estimated uncertainty. An analysis of successive measurements of the same cloud targets shows that most of the variance of individual velocity measurements is due to true variability of the winds.

Limaye, S. S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Suitability of Using SERI QC Software for Estimating Measurement Uncertainty

SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report (the first of six in the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration project) reviews and evaluates the software to determine its suitability for determining the estimated expanded measurement uncertainty of solar measurement data by including operational factors. Using redundancy incorporated in three-component (global, direct, diffuse) solar measurements, SERI QC can quantify the standard uncertainty estimates for estimating uncertainty. With minor modifications, SERI QC will provide an operational uncertainty to be used in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory method for instrument uncertainty to provide an integrated estimate of solar measurement data sets. These modifications will capitalize on SERI QC's evaluation of data quality, including data input validation and a variety of built-in solar routines, and will further develop the utility of the software.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Integrating Data Quality Assessments and Radiometer Uncertainty for Determining the Expanded Uncertainty of Three-Component Solar Radiation Measurements

Accurate solar irradiance data are fundamental for determining the design and performance characteristics of photovoltaic systems. The uncertainty of solar irradiance measurements depends on many factors including radiometer design, calibration, installation, maintenance, and operational environment. The key contributors to this uncertainty can be classified as the measurement uncertainty of a particular radiometer and the operational uncertainty determined for the time of measurement. Radiometer measurement uncertainty estimates (U R ) can be based on well-established methods used as part of the radiometer calibration process. Estimates of operational uncertainties (U o ) require consideration of additional site-specific factors that affect data quality. A method is needed for establishing the accuracy of solar irradiance data by integrating an existing data quality process and measurement uncertainty estimates for specific radiometers. An algorithm has been developed to integrate data quality analyses and measurement uncertainty estimates for three-component solar irradiance data: global horizontal (total hemispheric) irradiance, direct normal (beam) irradiance, and diffuse horizontal (sky) irradiance collected at one- to 60-minute intervals. The algorithm has been tested using one-minute irradiance measurements. The goal of the project is to distribute a user-friendly software package based on the new algorithm.

data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Medium-/Low-Voltage Joint State Estimator Through Linear Uncertainty Propagation

Traditionally, distribution system state estimations (DSSE) are challenged by the lack of measurements at both primary and secondary sides of the system. The widely available cable television (CATV) voltage sensors installed in low-voltage (LV) networks bring opportunities to achieve higher quality DSSE covering a broader area of the distribution network. This study proposes a medium-/low-voltage (MV/LV) joint distribution system state estimation approach using the untapped CATV measurements. It aims at addressing the need for system situational awareness at the grid edge while improving the estimation accuracy at both the primary and secondary sides compared to its disjointed counterpart. Linearized measurement functions and boundary condition uncertainty propagation rules are derived to ensure the computational efficiency and accuracy of the joint state estimator. Numerical experiments are conducted on an IEEE test feeder to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and the value of CATV measurements.

joint state estimation↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Impact and Estimation of Uncertainty Correlation for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Ocean Color

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.

PACE↗
NASA NTRS2006

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimating the Properties of Hard X-Ray Solar Flares by Constraining Model Parameters

We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23.We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non- Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, Ec, a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that Ec lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 +/- 4 keV with 68% probability.

X-rays↗
DOE OSTI2025

An infrasound source analysis of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule hypersonic re-entry

The OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule's hypersonic re-entry into the atmosphere is a rare opportunity to test a variety of sonic boom source models since the projectile dimensions are well characterized. While the as-flown flight path is unknown, the predicted flight path enables a rough approximation of the source Mach number and location. Six infrasound microphones deployed in the boom carpet along the predicted flight path recorded impulsive signals from the OSIRIS-REx re-entry. Using a suite of atmosphere profiles and the geometric acoustics approximation, we estimate locations with uncertainty estimates along the flight path from which the signals were emitted. Acoustic overpressure and signal duration predictions from Whitham's far field theory, Carlson's simplified sonic boom prediction method, and a drag-dominated hypersonic model are analyzed with uncertainty estimates from the location estimate. While the Carlson simplified sonic boom prediction method could be accurate, our preference is for the drag-dominated source model. Using this source model with an inviscid Burgers's equation solver for propagation, we obtained an excellent match to the recorded data. In conclusion, these results will help better inform future sample return capsule re-entry observation campaigns as well as contribute to a better understanding of high altitude infrasonic sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-energy Electron-track Imaging for a Liquid Argon Time-projection-chamber Telescope Concept Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The GammaTPC is an MeV-scale single-phase liquid argon time-projection-chamber gamma-ray telescope concept with a novel dual-scale pixel-based charge-readout system. It promises to enable a significant improvement in sensitivity to MeV-scale gamma rays over previous telescopes. The novel pixel-based charge readout allows for imaging of the tracks of electrons scattered by Compton interactions of incident gamma rays. The two primary contributors to the accuracy of a Compton telescope in reconstructing an incident gamma-ray’s original direction are its energy and position resolution. In this work, we focus on using deep learning to optimize the reconstruction of the initial position and direction of electrons scattered in Compton interactions, including using probabilistic models to estimate predictive uncertainty. We show that the deep-learning models are able to predict locations of Compton scatters of MeV-scale gamma rays from simulated 500 μm pixel-based data to better than 1 mm rms error and are sensitive to the initial direction of the scattered electron. We compare and contrast different deep-learning uncertainty estimation algorithms for reconstruction applications. Additionally, we show that event-by-event estimates of the uncertainty of the locations of the Compton scatters can be used to select those events that were reconstructed most accurately, leading to improvement in locating the origin of gamma-ray sources on the sky.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗