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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantification of trace iodine using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy for real-time monitoring of nuclear off-gas streams

This study evaluated the potential of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for real-time monitoring of trace gas-phase iodine, which is an element of high significance in nuclear applications due to its long radioactive half-life (as iodine-129), volatility, and biological impact. In anticipation of iodine evolving into off-gas systems in molten salt reactor and nuclear fuel recycling applications, this research aimed to assess LIBS performance in flowing argon and helium matrices; optimize measurement parameters using a multichannel spectrometer; and perform calibrations to assess predictive capabilities and limits of detection (LODs). Experimental results successfully measured gas-phase iodine in flowing argon and helium; however, trace iodine was not detected in air. Optimal delay times were determined to be 10 µs for argon and 1 µs for helium, which are consistent with the expected shorter plasma lifetime in helium relative to argon. An emission line survey was provided with the 206.16, 804.37, 902.24, and 905.83 nm peaks, which were identified as the strongest emission peaks. Calibration models were successfully built in both helium and argon, achieving LODs down to 3 ppm in helium and 5 ppm in argon. The iodine emission at 905.83 nm emerged as the most robust for calibration and was subsequently applied to a time series dataset in argon. The predictive trace confirmed the feasibility of employing LIBS for continuous, online quantification of trace iodine in flowing gas systems.

Andrews, Hunter B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs)

The Pipeline Hydrogen Decarbonization and Repurposing Analyzers (P-HyDRAs) are a set of prototype computational tools for simulating and optimizing midstream natural gas pipeline system operations subject to location and time-dependent hydrogen blending. The models can accurately resolve dynamic gas flows through large-scale pipeline networks using non-ideal gas equations of state. The codes can be used as decision support for planning and design decisions involving intra-day energy flow schedules as well as spatiotemporal economic values of natural gas, hydrogen, and net energy delivered to consumers while ensuring that pipeline hydraulic limitations, gas compressor station constraints, operational factors, and pre-existing shipping contracts are satisfied. The inputs to the codes are a model of the pipeline system as well as time-series data that specify boundary conditions on the network. For optimization, the code module requires price and quantity offers for natural gas and hydrogen and price and quantity bids for energy, which are used as time-dependent constraints in an optimal control problem. The outputs are time-series data that provide a predictive simulation of gas flows, mass fractions, and pressures, or with additional degrees of freedom give an approximately optimal solution for gas injections/withdrawals, compressor settings, and sensitivities to the objective function that provide locational values of energy.

Zlotnik, Anatoly↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient human activity recognition with spatio-temporal spiking neural networks

In this study, we explore Human Activity Recognition (HAR), a task that aims to predict individuals' daily activities utilizing time series data obtained from wearable sensors for health-related applications. Although recent research has predominantly employed end-to-end Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for feature extraction and classification in HAR, these approaches impose a substantial computational load on wearable devices and exhibit limitations in temporal feature extraction due to their activation functions. To address these challenges, we propose the application of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs), an architecture inspired by the characteristics of biological neurons, to HAR tasks. SNNs accumulate input activation as presynaptic potential charges and generate a binary spike upon surpassing a predetermined threshold. This unique property facilitates spatio-temporal feature extraction and confers the advantage of low-power computation attributable to binary spikes. We conduct rigorous experiments on three distinct HAR datasets using SNNs, demonstrating that our approach attains competitive or superior performance relative to ANNs, while concurrently reducing energy consumption by up to 94%.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

An evaluation of excitation techniques for time domain based flutter data processing

Numerically simulated, wind tunnel and flight test experimental data were used to evaluate various types of system excitation sources for subcritical flutter testing. Emphasis was placed upon the determination of modal frequencies and damping from relatively short time series records. Parameter identification based upon digital time series models was used to predict modal characteristics from subcritical test data. Various types of excitation were considered. These were: 1) impulsive loading and the resulting transient free vibration response, 2) random forced response, in which the 'mechanical' forcing function could be directly measured, 3) sine sweep forced response, in which the 'mechanical' forcing function could be directly measured, and 4) forced response from unsteady aerodynamic excitation or turbulence, in which the excitation could only be indirectly inferred from other measurements.

Pinkelman, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Compilation and Analysis of 20 and 30 GHz Rain Fade Events at the ACTS NASA Ground Station: Statistics and Model Assessment

The purpose of the propagation studies within the ACTS Project Office is to acquire 20 and 30 GHz rain fade statistics using the ACTS beacon links received at the NGS (NASA Ground Station) in Cleveland. Other than the raw, statistically unprocessed rain fade events that occur in real time, relevant rain fade statistics derived from such events are the cumulative rain fade statistics as well as fade duration statistics (beyond given fade thresholds) over monthly and yearly time intervals. Concurrent with the data logging exercise, monthly maximum rainfall levels recorded at the US Weather Service at Hopkins Airport are appended to the database to facilitate comparison of observed fade statistics with those predicted by the ACTS Rain Attenuation Model. Also, the raw fade data will be in a format, complete with documentation, for use by other investigators who require realistic fade event evolution in time for simulation purposes or further analysis for comparisons with other rain fade prediction models, etc. The raw time series data from the 20 and 30 GHz beacon signals is purged of non relevant data intervals where no rain fading has occurred. All other data intervals which contain rain fade events are archived with the accompanying time stamps. The definition of just what constitutes a rain fade event will be discussed later. The archived data serves two purposes. First, all rain fade event data is recombined into a contiguous data series every month and every year; this will represent an uninterrupted record of the actual (i.e., not statistically processed) temporal evolution of rain fade at 20 and 30 GHz at the location of the NGS. The second purpose of the data in such a format is to enable a statistical analysis of prevailing propagation parameters such as cumulative distributions of attenuation on a monthly and yearly basis as well as fade duration probabilities below given fade thresholds, also on a monthly and yearly basis. In addition, various subsidiary statistics such as attenuation rate probabilities are derived. The purged raw rain fade data as well as the results of the analyzed data will be made available for use by parties in the private sector upon their request. The process which will be followed in this dissemination is outlined in this paper.

Manning, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework

The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.

Reiss, Martin A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-process monitoring and prediction of droplet quality in droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting additive manufacturing using machine learning

Abstract In droplet-on-demand liquid metal jetting (DoD-LMJ) additive manufacturing, complex physical interactions govern the droplet characteristics, such as size, velocity, and shape. These droplet characteristics, in turn, determine the functional quality of the printed parts. Hence, to ensure repeatable and reliable part quality it is necessary to monitor and control the droplet characteristics. Existing approaches for in-situ monitoring of droplet behavior in DoD-LMJ rely on high-speed imaging sensors. The resulting high volume of droplet images acquired is computationally demanding to analyze and hinders real-time control of the process. To overcome this challenge, the objective of this work is to use time series data acquired from an in-process millimeter-wave sensor for predicting the size, velocity, and shape characteristics of droplets in DoD-LMJ process. As opposed to high-speed imaging, this sensor produces data-efficient time series signatures that allows rapid, real-time process monitoring. We devise machine learning models that use the millimeter-wave sensor data to predict the droplet characteristics. Specifically, we developed multilayer perceptron-based non-linear autoregressive models to predict the size and velocity of droplets. Likewise, a supervised machine learning model was trained to classify the droplet shape using the frequency spectrum information contained in the millimeter-wave sensor signatures. High-speed imaging data served as ground truth for model training and validation. These models captured the droplet characteristics with a statistical fidelity exceeding 90%, and vastly outperformed conventional statistical modeling approaches. Thus, this work achieves a practically viable sensing approach for real-time quality monitoring of the DoD-LMJ process, in lieu of the existing data-intensive image-based techniques.

Gaikwad, Aniruddha (ORCID:0000000285642621)↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with the market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we propose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price-taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with a polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models

Most integrated energy system (IES) optimization frameworks employ the price-taker approximation, which ignores important interactions with market and can result in overestimated economic values. In this work, we pro-pose a machine learning surrogate-assisted optimization framework to quantify the IES/market interactions and thus go beyond price taker. We use time series clustering to generate representative IES operation profiles for the IES optimization problem and use machine learning surrogate models to predict the IES/market interaction. We quantify the accuracy of the time series clustering and surrogate models in a case study to optimally retrofit a nuclear power plant with polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer to co-produce electricity and hydrogen.

Chen, Xinhe↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Hydropower Multi-Sensor Data for Inference and Age-Informed Modeling

Increased demand of operational flexibility such as faster ramp up/down in generation, and more frequent start/stops are putting hydropower plants and their associated components in unprecedented stress. Consequently, these plants are at the high risk of extended and more frequent outage to accommodate unscheduled, and unexpected maintenance. Therefore, hydropower plants are in critical need of data driven and age-informed analysis for their regular and unscheduled operation. Yet not all hydropower plants are exhaustively equipped with sensors and/or measurement streams for their respective components – demanding solutions on how to detect, identify, and locate the cause of any event from the unobservable. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) analyzed the anonymized measurements and event records from the Hydropower Research Institute (HRI) to address this issue, as part of the Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) funded one year multi-lab project. First, we investigated how time series of multiple sensor measurements can be leveraged to identify an event “root cause” as well as to develop an inference (i.e., estimate the unobservable) problem. INL also investigated how individual hydropower components’ reaction or response times vary across the pre-event, during event, and post-event conditions – enabling the hydropower dynamic models to be age-informed. Finally, the impact of clustering multi-sensor time series on short-term vibration prediction is analyzed. INL will present key findings from these analyses and recommend next steps for stakeholder adoption.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

Grass, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long–short-term memory encoder–decoder with regularized hidden dynamics for fault detection in industrial processes

The ability of recurrent neural networks (RNN) to model nonlinear dynamics of high dimensional process data has enabled data-driven RNN-based fault detection algorithms. Previous studies have focused on detecting faults by identifying the discrepancies in data distribution between the faulty and normal data, as reflected in prediction errors generated by RNN models. However, in industrial processes, variations in data distribution can also result from changes in normal control setpoints and compensatory control adjustments in response to disturbances, making it hard to differentiate between normal and faulty conditions. This paper proposes a fault detection method utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder–decoder structure with regularized hidden dynamics and reversible instance normalization (RevIN) to compactly represent high-dimensional measurements for effective monitoring. During training, the hidden states of the model are regularized to form a low-dimensional latent space representation of the original multivariate time series data. As a result, the prediction errors of the latent states can be used to monitor the abnormal dynamic variations, while the reconstruction errors of the measured variables are used to monitor the abnormal static variations. Furthermore, the proposed indices can reflect operating conditions, even when the distribution of test data changes, which helps distinguish faults from normal adjustments and disturbances that controllers can settle. Here, data from numerical simulation and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗