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NASA NTRS2022

Measurement of Surface Deformation Related to the December 2018 Mt. Etna Eruption Using Time-Series Interferometry and Magma Modeling for Hazard Zone Mapping

Mount Etna has erupted several times since it was first formed. Recently, Mount Etna began erupting again over 24–27 December 2018. Because it erupts frequently, Mount Etna should be observed on a frequent basis. From June 2018 to October 2019, 34 and 56 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images were acquired from the ascending and descending tracks of the Sentinel-1 satellite, respectively. We employed the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) and a refined small baseline subset (SBAS) InSAR method to produce a surface deformation time-series map. In the time-series analysis, the phase signal remained unaltered with time. The Okada model was then applied to the result to generate a modeled interferogram, and the Q-LavHA program was run to generate a lava flow prediction model. A direct comparison of the results showed that Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI)-StaMPS and the refined SBAS technique were comparable in terms of the displacement pattern, with slightly different velocity values obtained for individual points. In particular, a velocity range of −25 to 21 cm/yr was obtained from PSI-StaMPS, whereas a range of −30 to 25 cm/yr was obtained from the refined SBAS method. Upon computation of the vertical and east-west displacement components based on ascending and descending track data using both methods, deformation velocities of 51.5 and 52.5 cm/yr in the westerly direction on the western flank of Mount Etna were obtained from PSI-StaMPS and the refined SBAS method, respectively, whereas on the eastern flank, deformation toward the east was estimated to occur at a velocity of 50.1 or 54.2 cm/yr, respectively. PSIStaMPS estimated a vertical deformation velocity of −5.3 to 18.3 cm/yr, whereas the refined SBAS method produced a velocity range of approximately −7 to 19 cm/yr. The interferogram obtained via Okada modeling showed two fault sources in the 2018 Mount Etna eruption and a total volume change of approximately 12.39 × 10 6 m 3 . From the modeling results, a lava flow prediction model was generated using the Q-LavHA program. The approaches described in this study can be used by government officials, authorities, and other decision-makers to monitor and assess the risk of volcanic activity in the region.

Suci Ramayanti↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Performance Loss Rate of Photovoltaic Systems Using Time Series Change Point Analysis

The accurate quantification of the performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems is critical for project economics. Following the current research activities in the photovoltaic performance and reliability field, this work presents a comparative assessment between common change point methods for performance loss rate estimation of fielded photovoltaic installations. An extensive testing campaign was thus performed to evaluate time series analysis approaches for performance loss rate evaluation of photovoltaic systems. Historical electrical data from eleven photovoltaic systems installed in Nicosia, Cyprus, and the locations’ meteorological measurements over a period of 8 years were used for this investigation. The application of change point detection algorithms on the constructed monthly photovoltaic performance ratio series revealed that the obtained trend might not always be linear. Specifically, thin film photovoltaic systems showed nonlinear behavior, while nonlinearities were also detected for some crystalline silicon photovoltaic systems. When applying several change point techniques, different numbers and locations of changes were detected, resulting in different performance loss rate values (varying by up to 0.85%/year even for the same number of change points). The results highlighted the importance of the application of nonlinear techniques and the need to extract a robust nonlinear model for detecting significant changes in time series data and estimating accurately the performance loss rate of photovoltaic installations.

photovoltaics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rapid QSTS Simulations for High-Resolution Comprehensive Assessment of Distributed PV

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modeling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario-based studies, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations can realistically model time-dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year. However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1-second resolution is often required, which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10 to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled. This computational burden is a clear limitation to the adoption of QSTS simulations in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations. The solutions we developed include accurate and computationally efficient QSTS methods that could be implemented in existing open-source and commercial software used by utilities and the development of methods to create high-resolution proxy data sets. This project demonstrated multiple pathways for speeding up the QSTS computation using new and innovative methods for advanced time-series analysis, faster power flow solvers, parallel processing of power flow solutions and circuit reduction. The target performance level for this project was achieved with year-long high-resolution time series solutions run in less than 5 minutes within an acceptable error.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

System and Safety Analysis with SysAI A Statistical Learning Framework

This is a tutorial on how to use the SYSAI (System Analysis using Statistical AI), a flexible statistical learning framework for the V&V and analysis of complex and high-dimensional Aerospace systems with DNN and AI components. SYSAI provides functionality for a variety of analyses and V&V tasks, including statistical data analysis, high dimensional safety-envelope and time-series analysis, property checking, as well as intelligent test-case generation. The tutorial will demonstrate SYSAI with our industrial partner’s Autonomous Centerline Tracking system, which uses a DNN to enable autonomous aircraft taxiing as an example. Video & Tutorial

Statistical V&V for Complex safety-critical system↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series

Abstract In this article we propose an extension of singular spectrum analysis for interval‐valued time series. The proposed methods can be used to decompose and forecast the dynamics governing a set‐valued stochastic process. The resulting components on which the interval time series is decomposed can be understood as interval trendlines, cycles, or noise. Forecasting can be conducted through a linear recurrent method, and we devised generalizations of the decomposition method for the multivariate setting. The performance of the proposed methods is showcased in a simulation study. We apply the proposed methods so to track the dynamics governing the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) in real time, in a case study over a period of turbulence that led to discussions of the government of Argentina with the International Monetary Fund.

de Carvalho, Miguel↗

NASA NTRS1992

LV software support for supersonic flow analysis

The software for configuring a Laser Velocimeter (LV) counter processor system was developed using structured design. The LV system includes up to three counter processors and a rotary encoder. The software for configuring and testing the LV system was developed, tested, and included in an overall software package for data acquisition, analysis, and reduction. Error handling routines respond to both operator and instrument errors which often arise in the course of measuring complex, high-speed flows. The use of networking capabilities greatly facilitates the software development process by allowing software development and testing from a remote site. In addition, high-speed transfers allow graphics files or commands to provide viewing of the data from a remote site. Further advances in data analysis require corresponding advances in procedures for statistical and time series analysis of nonuniformly sampled data.

Bell, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

LV software support for supersonic flow analysis

The software for configuring an LV counter processor system has been developed using structured design. The LV system includes up to three counter processors and a rotary encoder. The software for configuring and testing the LV system has been developed, tested, and included in an overall software package for data acquisition, analysis, and reduction. Error handling routines respond to both operator and instrument errors which often arise in the course of measuring complex, high-speed flows. The use of networking capabilities greatly facilitates the software development process by allowing software development and testing from a remote site. In addition, high-speed transfers allow graphics files or commands to provide viewing of the data from a remote site. Further advances in data analysis require corresponding advances in procedures for statistical and time series analysis of nonuniformly sampled data.

Bell, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Rotational modulation in IUE spectra of cool dwarf chromospheres: Data analysis and period search techniques

The IUE spectra of bright F-K dwarfs were used to investigate rotational modulation in chromospheric and transition region emission lines, with Stellingwerf's phase dispersion minimization (PDM) technique as the basis of time series analysis. Sampling-related aliases are found to dominate the PDM spectra in these sparsely sampled, irregularly spaced time series. The star chosen to illustrate the techniques is epsilon Eridani, a young, chromospherically active K2 dwarf. Strong indications of a rotation period close to 2.8 days in epsilon Eridani from 2 seasons of observations, with evidence for the persistence in longitude of the active area(s) over several hundred rotation cycles are found.

Altner, B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The orbital record in stratigraphy

Orbital signals are being discovered in pre-Pleistocene sediments. Due to their hierarchical nature these cycle patterns are complex, and the imprecision of geochronology generally makes the assignment of stratigraphic cycles to specific orbital cycles uncertain, but in sequences such as the limnic Newark Group under study by Olsen and pelagic Cretaceous sequence worked on by our Italo-American group the relative frequencies yield a definitive match to the Milankovitch hierarchy. Due to the multiple ways in which climate impinges on depositional systems, the orbital signals are recorded in a multiplicity of parameters, and affect different sedimentary facies in different ways. In platform carbonates, for example, the chief effect is via sea-level variations (possibly tied to fluctuating ice volume), resulting in cycles of emergence and submergence. In limnic systems it finds its most dramatic expression in alternations of lake and playa conditions. Biogenic pelagic oozes such as chalks and the limestones derived from them display variations in the carbonate supplied by planktonic organisms such as coccolithophores and foraminifera, and also record variations in the aeration of bottom waters. Whereas early studies of stratigraphic cyclicity relied mainly on bedding variations visible in the field, present studies are supplementing these with instrumental scans of geochemical, paleontological, and geophysical parameters which yield quantitative curves amenable to time-series analysis; such analysis is, however, limited by problems of distorted time-scales. My own work has been largely concentrated on pelagic systems. In these, the sensitivity of pelagic organisms to climatic-oceanic changes, combined with the sensitivity of botton life to changes in oxygen availability (commonly much more restricted in the Past than now) has left cyclic patterns related to orbital forcing. These systems are further attractive because (1) they tend to offer depositional continuity, and (2) presence of abundant microfossils yields close ties to geochronology. A tantalizing possibility that stratigraphy may yield a record of orbital signals unrelated to climate has turned up in magnetic studies of our Cretaceous core. Magnetic secular variations here carry a strong 39 ka periodicity, corresponding to the theoretical obliquity period of that time - Does the obliquity cycle perhaps have some direct influence on the magnetic field?

Fischer, Alfred G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Rotational modulation in IUE spectra of cool dwarf chromospheres. I - Data analysis and period search techniques

Time-sequenced IUE spectra of a number of a bright F-K dwarfs have been used to investigate rotational modulation in several important chromospheric and transition emission lines. Stellingwerf's phase dispersion minimization (PDM) technique forms the basis of this time-series analysis of these sparsely sampled, irregularly spaced observational sequences, which consist of no more than 13 spectra in any one season. In such highly sample-limited time series, the resultant PDM spectrum is greatly complicated by overlapping alias orders which invariably produce strong interference effects, but the deliberately irregular sampling has proven of value in the development of techniques to identify the intrinsic stellar flux modulation period. Two stars are selected to illustrate these new techniques in detail.

Hallam, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

FSSC Science Tools: Pulsar Analysis

This slide presentation reviews the typical pulsar analysis, giving tips for screening of the data, the use of time series analysis, and utility tools. Specific information about analyzing Vela data is reviewed.

Thompson, Dave↗

NASA NTRS1981

Stochastic models of cover class dynamics

Investigations related to satellite remote sensing of vegetation have been concerned with questions of signature identification and extension, cover inventory accuracy, and change detection and monitoring. Attention is given to models of ecological succession, present directions in successional modeling and analysis, nondynamic spatial models, issues in the analysis of spatial data, and aspects of spatial modeling. Issues in time-series analysis are considered along with dynamic spatial models, and problems of model specification and identification.

Barringer, T. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Forced unsteady deceleration of a turbulent boundary layer from a temporal perspective

The behavior of a turbulent boundary layer which has been subjected to a local ramp-like deceleration in the external velocity field, which leads to forced separation, has been studied experimentally. The data of this study are re-interpreted in light of more recent findings concerning the temporal nature of boundary layer turbulence in the presence of forced unsteady shear. In particular, the robustness of the near-wall turbulent motions to organized deformation is recognized. Their resilence during unsteady shearing action promotes continued efficient turbulent mixing and rapid redistribution of turbulent kinetic energy during forced transients. In aerodynamic problems, the rapid nature of the adjustment of the turbulence field to a new temporal boundary condition necessitates equally rapid remedial measures to be taken if means of control/prevention of forced unsteady separation are to be deployed to maximum effect. This requirement suggests exploration of the use of simple, real-time statistical forecasting techniques, based upon time-series analysis of easily-measurable features of the flow, to help assure timely deployment of mechanisms of boundary-layer control. This paper focuses upon the nature of turbulence in boundary layers undergoing forced deceleration which would lead to separation. A preliminary form of a forecasting model is presented and evaluated. Using observations of the previous two large eddies passing a detector, it forecasts the behavior of the future large eddy rather well.

Brereton, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Re-Organizing Earth Observation Data Storage to Support Temporal Analysis of Big Data

The Earth Observing System Data and Information System archives many datasets that are critical to understanding long-term variations in Earth science properties. Thus, some of these are large, multi-decadal datasets. Yet the challenge in long time series analysis comes less from the sheer volume than the data organization, which is typically one (or a small number of) time steps per file. The overhead of opening and inventorying complex, API-driven data formats such as Hierarchical Data Format introduces a small latency at each time step, which nonetheless adds up for datasets with O(10^6) single-timestep files. Several approaches to reorganizing the data can mitigate this overhead by an order of magnitude: pre-aggregating data along the time axis (time-chunking); storing the data in a highly distributed file system; or storing data in distributed columnar databases. Storing a second copy of the data incurs extra costs, so some selection criteria must be employed, which would be driven by expected or actual usage by the end user community, balanced against the extra cost.

data storage↗

NASA NTRS2014

Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

Damadeo, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Remote Sensing Time Series Product Tool

The TSPT (Time Series Product Tool) software was custom-designed for NASA to rapidly create and display single-band and band-combination time series, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images, for wide-area crop surveillance and for other time-critical applications. The TSPT, developed in MATLAB, allows users to create and display various MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) or simulated VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite) products as single images, as time series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Manually creating these types of products is extremely labor intensive; however, the TSPT development tool makes the process simplified and efficient. MODIS is ideal for monitoring large crop areas because of its wide swath (2330 km), its relatively small ground sample distance (250 m), and its high temporal revisit time (twice daily). Furthermore, because MODIS imagery is acquired daily, rapid changes in vegetative health can potentially be detected. The new TSPT technology provides users with the ability to temporally process high-revisit-rate satellite imagery, such as that acquired from MODIS and from its successor, the VIIRS. The TSPT features the important capability of fusing data from both MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, which drastically improves cloud statistics. With the TSPT, MODIS metadata is used to find and optionally remove bad and suspect data. Noise removal and temporal processing techniques allow users to create low-noise time series plots and image videos and to select settings and thresholds that tailor particular output products. The TSPT GUI (graphical user interface) provides an interactive environment for crafting what-if scenarios by enabling a user to repeat product generation using different settings and thresholds. The TSPT Application Programming Interface provides more fine-tuned control of product generation, allowing experienced programmers to bypass the GUI and to create more user-specific output products, such as comparison time plots or images. This type of time series analysis tool for remotely sensed imagery could be the basis of a large-area vegetation surveillance system. The TSPT has been used to generate NDVI time series over growing seasons in California and Argentina and for hurricane events, such as Hurricane Katrina.

Predos, Don↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analytical evaluation of tilting proprotor wind tunnel test requirements

Specific test requirements related to the wind tunnel testing of the XV-15 advanced tilt rotor research aircraft were determined. The following analytical tools were developed: (1) digital simulation of the XV-15, incorporating a simplified tunnel support model, control system loop, measurement lags, gust disturbances, and sensor noise, (2) specialization of existing data analysis programs to the high order XV-15 dynamical model (transfer function program, a time series analysis program, an advanced maximum likelihood parameter identification program), (3) several auxiliary programs to provide estimates of damping from transfer functions as well as calculations of model decomposition of system response. The following results were discussed: (1) modelling of the aircraft, instrumentation, and controls, (2) results of the rotor/cantilever wing model and coupled wing, (3) examples of data prediction with system identification techniques, and (4) detailed conclusions and recommendations.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Periodic extinction of families and genera

Eight major episodes of biological extinction of marine families over the past 250 million years stand significantly above local background (P less than 0.05). These events are more pronounced when analyzed at the level of genus, and generic data exhibit additional apparent extinction events in the Aptian (Cretaceous) and Pliocene (Tertiary) Stages. Time-series analysis of these records strongly suggests a 26-million-year periodicity. This conclusion is robust even when adjusted for simultaneous testing of many trial periods. When the time series is limited to the four best-dated events (Cenomanian, Maestrichtian, upper Eocene, and middle Miocene), the hypothesis of randomness is also rejected for the 26-million-year period (P less than 0.0002).

Raup, David M.↗