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At least 127 records · Page 7

Potential of VIIRS Time Series Data for Aiding the USDA Forest Service Early Warning System for Forest Health Threats: A Gypsy Moth Defoliation Case Study

The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be developed. The USFS (USDA Forest Service) is currently building this EWS. NASA is helping the USFS to integrate remotely sensed data into the EWS, including MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales. This RPC experiment assesses the potential of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data for contribution to the EWS. In doing so, the RPC project employed multitemporal simulated VIIRS and MODIS data for detecting and monitoring forest defoliation from the non-native Eurasian gypsy moth (Lymantria despar). Gypsy moth is an invasive species threatening eastern U.S. hardwood forests. It is one of eight major forest insect threats listed in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003. This RPC experiment is relevant to several nationally important mapping applications, including carbon management, ecological forecasting, coastal management, and disaster management

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

Winters, Katherine A.↗

Analysis of CSIRT/SOC Incidents and Continuous Monitoring of Threats

Security Operations Centers (SOC) contain a wealth of data which, if properly classified and tagged upfront, can yield a wealth of real-time information about your organizations IT Security posture, risks, and threats. These include answers to relevant and actionable questions such as: What are our biggest threats? Who is attacking us and what do they want? What controls are working or not working? How effective was the new technology we just implemented? What is our ROI?

Wang, John↗

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

U.S. forests occupy approx. 751 million acres (approx. 1/3 of total land). These forests are exposed to multiple biotic and abiotic threats that collectively damage extensive acreages each year. Hazardous forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest monitoring products are needed to aid forest management and decision making by the US Forest Service and its state and private partners. Daily MODIS data products provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis. In response, we began work in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat early warning system (EWS)

Spruce, Joseph↗

Overview of Threats and Failure Models for Safety-Relevant Computer-Based Systems

This document presents a high-level overview of the threats to safety-relevant computer-based systems, including (1) a description of the introduction and activation of physical and logical faults; (2) the propagation of their effects; and (3) function-level and component-level error and failure mode models. These models can be used in the definition of fault hypotheses (i.e., assumptions) for threat-risk mitigation strategies. This document is a contribution to a guide currently under development that is intended to provide a general technical foundation for designers and evaluators of safety-relevant systems.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗

Cyber Threat Assessment of Uplink and Commanding System for Mission Operation

Most of today's Mission Operations Systems (MOS) rely on Ground Data System (GDS) segment to mitigate cyber security risks. Unfortunately, IT security design is done separately from the design of GDS' mission operational capabilities. This incoherent practice leaves many security vulnerabilities in the system without any notice. This paper describes a new way to system engineering MOS, to include cyber threat risk assessments throughout the MOS development cycle, without this, it is impossible to design a dependable and reliable MOS to meet today's rapid changing cyber threat environment.

ground data↗

Advancing Asteroid Threat Assessment

Asteroid Threat Assessment for Planetary Defense [Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (TAP) at NASA Ames Research Center]. Objectives: Develop models and data to characterize the potential damage and risks due to asteroid strikes on Earth. Provide results that can help guide decisions and planning: Asteroid surveys; Mitigation systems; Disaster response.

Wheeler, Lorien↗

Interactions Between Two Existential Threats: COVID-19 and Climate Change

The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are complex existential threats, unpredictable in many ways and unprecedented in modern times. There are parallels between the scale and scope of their impacts and responses. Understanding shared drivers, coupled vulnerabilities, and criteria for effective responses will help societies worldwide prepare for the simultaneous threats of climate change and future pandemics. We summarize some shared characteristics of COVID-19 and climate change impacts and interventions and discuss key policy implications and recommendations.

Climate change adaptation↗

Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for Advanced Reactors (Conference Presentation)

The next generation of Advanced Reactors include planned capabilities for both Autonomous (operating without human interaction for a set period-of-time) and Remote (operating with human interaction from a separate physical location) Operations. Existing Nuclear Reactor architectures include a set of safety and security constraints tightly coupled with personnel policies and procedures. As Advanced Reactors are fielded with these new Autonomous and Remote operational capabilities, the architectures and associated infrastructure services and components will perceivably expand the overall attack surface and risk calculations with regards to safe and secure operations. This paper is part of an FY21 work program focused on ensuring Advanced Reactor designs are informed with threat-based guidance on design and operation of Secure Architectures with a specific focus on the deployment of Autonomous Systems in support of Advanced Reactor Operations. The next phase of this research program is to complement produce a methodology for assessment of the cyber threat against these architectures as well as a catalogue of Use Cases to support the Advanced Reactor community in their implementation of Autonomous and Remote Operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Generating SBoMs Utilizing Structured Threat Information Expression JSON bundles

With cyber-attacks on the rise, information is one of the first lines of defense. Now more than ever, security experts and developers need efficient ways to know if their software may be outdated or vulnerable to emerging threats. By generating a Software Bill of Material based on STIX2/JSON bundles, security experts and developers can ensure that they know where to find what can go wrong with their systems before the hackers do. As part of the Infrastructure Expression project, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is currently working on ways that can aid in the development of efficient SBOMs using Structured Threat Information Expression (STIX). Doing so can provide an efficient first line of defense for detection and monitoring that can be easily used by cyber personnel from beginners to highly skilled experts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analyzing Insider Risk Threat to the Internet of Things (IoT)

Recent technological advancement has created a growing convergence of innovation. From machine learning to ubiquitous computing to wireless networks and automation, the world is seeing new technology increasingly capable of connecting with each other. Devices and systems use open communications networks to interact, process information, and react. This is called the Internet of Things (IoT) and is comprised of physical devices that exchange data over networks, creating revolutionary possibilities. The most common way most people interact with an IoT is through ‘smart home’ products like Amazon’s Alexa, which use microphones, speakers, and phones to control a variety of devices, from lights and thermostats, to cameras, to appliances and vacuum cleaners. But the open nature of IoT networks—necessary for their ability to communicate and operate—also introduces privacy and security concerns. At a personal level, this might mean a hack into a home to steal private information, but when applied in broader industries like healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, or the military, this vulnerability can have serious consequences. As IoT usage and interconnectivity increases, so too does the susceptibility to malicious actors. And the entire system is only as secure as its least secure member. This creates particular risk and vulnerability to radiological material industries, as a competent insider adversary could utilize the IoT to potentially steal or access classified or sensitive information about employees, sites, or systems; or simply sabotage security or maintenance from a more remote—and less secure—device. The IoT relies on a secure network across the entire system, especially in transport which may lack the security of more permanent locations; if one device fails, it can create a ripple effect and an insider threat may seek to exploit that connectivity. While IoT benefits drive increased innovation and usage, there are also vulnerabilities an insider threat could exploit; this risk of an IoT to radiological material must be addressed in any mitigation effort.

Kinney, Justin↗

Cyber Threat Landscape and Engineering Mitigations for Grid Forming Inverters

This talk will cover the cyber threat landscape and engineering mitigations for grid forming (GFM) inverters. It will discuss the penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in the United States and expected growth. It will then discuss the threat landscape for IBRs based on current and expected penetration. Real-world examples of cyber incidents affecting IBRs will be presented, concluding with an introduction to Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and a guide on applying it to GFM inverters.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Emerging Threats in Transportation Security Related to Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

Transport of high-consequence shipments requires a resilient and robust systems of systems to guarantee cargo arrival. Furthermore, rising adoption of technologies such as connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), intelligent infrastructure, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication presents unique challenges for securing transportation systems. Within these Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), several additional vulnerabilities exist that create pathways for adversarial attacks and cargo interception. For example, connectivity provides cyber pathways directly into vehicle systems and infrastructure for malicious actors. Furthermore, advanced vehicle automation exposes additional vehicle control necessary for shipment interception otherwise unavailable to adversaries. Within this paper, we will discuss the specific threats introduced by ITS-enabled technologies currently deployed and in development. These include those mentioned related to connectivity and automation, but will be expanded into grid, infrastructure, and vehicle specific threats. In addition, we will discuss how to potentially mitigate these emerging challenges as well as how to safeguard transportation systems from next generation attacks.

Cook, Adian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160825395)↗

Cybersecurity for Digital Energy Infrastructure : Trends, Threats, and Cyber-Informed Engineering

This presentation discusses the rise in digital energy infrastructure and associated threats. It covers an in-depth risk assessment of digital energy equipment and provides real world examples of threats, vulnerabilities, and known incidents. Research conducted by INL assessing and addressing these risks follows, concluding with a dive into Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) and it's application to digital energy infrastructure, using battery energy storage systems (BESS) as an example.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cyber threat assessment of machine learning driven autonomous control systems of nuclear power plants

We report advanced cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure and the energy sector are becoming more common. With the invention of autonomous control systems (ACS) within advanced nuclear reactor designs, system designers, reactor operators, and regulators must consider cybersecurity during the design and operational phases. This article provides a cyber threat assessment of machine learning (ML)-based digital twinning (DT) technologies in the context of advanced reactor ACS. A cyber–physical testbed was created to emulate nuclear reactor digital instrumentation and controls (I&C) and act as a basis for the ACS. The ACS was designed as two plant-level DTs predicting reactor malfunctions and determining control actions and two component-level DTs responsible for classifying component states and forecasting component inputs and outputs (I/O). Two duplicate ACS designs– one using a traditional ML framework and one using an automated ML (AutoML) framework– were created and tested against cyber-attacks on training data, real-time process data, and ML model architectures to determine their respective qualitative cyber-risk in terms of likelihood and impact. Both frameworks showed similar cyber-resilience against training, real-time, and ML architecture attacks, proving that neither is inherently more secure. Recommended safeguard and security measures are posed to system designers, reactor operators, and regulators to maintain the cybersecurity of ML-based DT technologies such as ACS, prompting a holistic view of shared responsibility for maintaining cyber-secure ML-based systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Localized Cyber Threat Mitigation Approach For Wide Area Control of FACTS

We propose a localized oscillation amplitude monitoring (OAM) method for the mitigation of cyber threats directed at the wide area control (WAC) system used to coordinate control of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) for power oscillation damping (POD) of active power flow on inter-area tie lines. The method involves monitoring the inter-area tie line active power oscillation amplitude over a sliding window. We use system instability - inferred from oscillation amplitudes growing instead of damping - as evidence of an indication of a malfunction in the WAC of FACTS, possibly indicative of a cyber attack. Monitoring the presence of such a growth allows us to determine whether any destabilizing behaviors appear after the WAC system engages to control the POD. If the WAC signal increases the oscillation amplitude over time, thereby diminishing the POD performance, the FACTS falls back to POD using local measurements. The proposed method does not require an expansive system-wide view of the network. We simulate replay, control integrity, and timing attacks for a test system and present results that demonstrate the performance of the OAM method for mitigation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Vulnerabilities in Satellite Communications Underscore Threat to Critical Infrastructure

INL analysts assess critical infrastructure sectors leveraging satellite communications (SATCOM) are likely inadvertently increasing the attack surface caused by inherent vulnerabilities in equipment and communications pathways. A lack of ownership regarding security in SATCOM ecosystems creates pervasive information security risk, and the obfuscation of patching responsibility means the mitigation of publicly and privately disclosed vulnerabilities is difficult to track. With these factors in consideration, INL analysts assess the number of attacks against SATCOM is likely to increase in the next decade as threat actors exploit these vulnerabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Threat Agnostic Virulence Assessment of Pathogens

Virulence assessment of new, emerging, and engineered pathogens is critical to mounting an appropriate response to a biothreat agent. The capacity of the pathogen to colonize human and harm tissues must be characterized to understand pathogenicity pathways and optimize diagnosis and treatment of resulting disease. Respiratory pathogens are of interest because they can have high transmissibility rates, as observed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of Covid-19. Current technologies are insufficient to assess threats due to their reliance on systems with only one cell type and on sequencing the pathogen. However, it is known that sequence is not an accurate predictor of function, and sequencing can be unreliable for newly emerged or engineered pathogens. An ideal system would consist of relevant epithelial cell types and an assay sensitive enough to detect changes in host responses that do not rely on DNA sequencing. We chose a system consisting of host lung epithelial cells that can be used to assess the virulence of unknown respiratory pathogens. We interrogated pathogens using this model and assess features of pathogenicity. Our objective is to leverage PNNLs strengths in tissue engineering and proteomics capabilities to build a multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) or parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay for human host cell proteins whose abundance is influenced by infection. These responses can were then assessed for relative virulence using pathogen agnostic signatures. When confronted with a pathogen, cells activate dedicated signaling pathways, typically through phosphorylation of regulatory proteins and downstream activation of host cell networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗