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At least 127 records · Page 7

The U.S. Energy System and the Production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel From Clean Electricity

Jet fuel is relatively small in terms of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions (10% of U.S. transportation sector in 2021, expected to increase to 14% by 2050). Still airlines have ambitious goals to reduce their greenhouse footprints from carbon-neutral growth beginning this year to reducing greenhouse gas emission for international flights by 50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. The challenge is heightened by the longevity of the current fleet (30–50 years) and by the difficulty in electrifying the future fleet because only 5% of the commercial aviation greenhouse gas footprint is from regional flights that might, conceivably be electrified using foreseeable technology. Therefore, large amounts of sustainable aviation fuel will be needed to reach the aggressive targets set by airlines. Only 3 million gallons (11.4 ML) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) (with a heat of combustion totaling about 400 TJ = 0.0004 EJ) was produced in the U.S. in 2019 for a 26 billion gallon per year market (3.6 EJ/year). Fischer-Tropsch and ethanol oligomerization (alcohol-to-jet) are considered for producing SAF, including the use of renewable electricity and carbon dioxide. In sequencing the energy transition, cleaning the U.S. grid is an important first step to have the largest greenhouse gas emissions reduction. While carbon dioxide and clean electricity can potentially provide the SAF in the future, an ethanol oligomerization option will require less energy.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Ocean liming effect on a North Atlantic microbial community: changes in composition and rates

The ongoing rise in atmospheric CO 2 levels and the consequent global warming make it increasingly difficult to maintain the global temperature within the 1.5 - 2°C target set by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, strategies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are being developed, with ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) gaining most attention. Within OAE, ocean liming- the addition of quicklime (CaO) or hydrated lime (Ca(OH) 2 )- can not only remove CO 2 from the atmosphere but potentially counteract the effects of ocean acidification. Although quite attractive, these technologies have yet to be tested regarding ecological safety and efficacy. Here we report the impacts of ocean liming on the abundance, composition and extracellular enzymatic activity (EEA) rates of a North Atlantic planktonic community. The results demonstrate that OAE led to a decreased phytoplankton development, mainly diatoms. The bacterial response to OAE was community-specific, with a consistent increase in the relative abundance of the order Oceanospirillales. OAE also led to increased EEA rates, especially within the bacterial community. These findings suggest that while initial effects on phytoplankton may be limited, the specific impacts on bacterial groups suggest that OAE could influence the remineralization of organic matter. If our results apply to other communities, OAE might initially affect marine microbial dynamics, but further studies are needed to determine if these effects are long-term.

16S↗

Primer and platform effects on 16S rRNA tag sequencing

Sequencing of 16S rRNA gene tags is a popular method for profiling and comparing microbial communities. The protocols and methods used, however, vary considerably with regard to amplification primers, sequencing primers, sequencing technologies; as well as quality filtering and clustering. How results are affected by these choices, and whether data produced with different protocols can be meaningfully compared, is often unknown. Here we compare results obtained using three different amplification primer sets (targeting V4, V6–V8, and V7–V8) and two sequencing technologies (454 pyrosequencing and Illumina MiSeq) using DNA from a mock community containing a known number of species as well as complex environmental samples whose PCR-independent profiles were estimated using shotgun sequencing. We find that paired-end MiSeq reads produce higher quality data and enabled the use of more aggressive quality control parameters over 454, resulting in a higher retention rate of high quality reads for downstream data analysis. While primer choice considerably influences quantitative abundance estimations, sequencing platform has relatively minor effects when matched primers are used. In conclusion, beta diversity metrics are surprisingly robust to both primer and sequencing platform biases.

16S rRNA gene sequencing↗

Primary Velocity and Orbital Phase Effects on Planetary Detectability from Small Epoch Number Data Sets

Cross-correlation analyses of high-resolution spectroscopic data have recently shown great success in directly detecting planetary signals and enabling the characterization of their atmospheres. One such technique aims to observe a system at multiple epochs and combine the measured planetary radial velocities from each epoch into a measurement of the planetary Keplerian orbital velocity K {sub p}, constituting a direct detection of the planetary signal. Recent work has shown that in few-epoch (∼5) data sets, unintended structure can arise at a high level, obscuring the planetary detection. In this work, we look to simulations to examine whether there are ways to reduce this structured noise in few-epoch data sets by careful planning of observations. The choice of observation date allows observers to select the primary (stellar) velocity through a set systemic velocity and chosen barycentric velocity and the planetary orbital phase so we focus on the effects of these two parameters. We find that epochs taken when the primary velocity is near zero and the stellar lines remain relatively fixed to the telluric rest-frame greatly reduce the level of structured noise and allow for much stronger planetary detections, on average more than twice the significance of detections made with epochs using randomly selected primary velocities. Following these results, we recommend that observers looking to build up high-resolution multi-epoch data sets target nights when their system has a near-zero primary velocity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data-driven, Interpretable Photometric Redshifts Trained on Heterogeneous and Unrepresentative Data

We present a new method for inferring photometric redshifts in deep galaxy and quasar surveys, based on a data-driven model of latent spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and a physical model of photometric fluxes as a function of redshift. This conceptually novel approach combines the advantages of both machine learning methods and template fitting methods by building template SEDs directly from the spectroscopic training data. This is made computationally tractable with Gaussian processes operating in flux–redshift space, encoding the physics of redshifts and the projection of galaxy SEDs onto photometric bandpasses. This method alleviates the need to acquire representative training data or to construct detailed galaxy SED models; it requires only that the photometric bandpasses and calibrations be known or have parameterized unknowns. The training data can consist of a combination of spectroscopic and deep many-band photometric data with reliable redshifts, which do not need to entirely spatially overlap with the target survey of interest or even involve the same photometric bands. We showcase the method on the i -magnitude-selected, spectroscopically confirmed galaxies in the COSMOS field. The model is trained on the deepest bands (from SUBARU and HST ) and photometric redshifts are derived using the shallower SDSS optical bands only. We demonstrate that we obtain accurate redshift point estimates and probability distributions despite the training and target sets having very different redshift distributions, noise properties, and even photometric bands. Our model can also be used to predict missing photometric fluxes or to simulate populations of galaxies with realistic fluxes and redshifts, for example.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A formulation and analysis of combat games

Combat is formulated as a dynamical encounter between two opponents, each of whom has offensive capabilities and objectives. With each opponent is associated a target in the event space in which he endeavors to terminate the combat, thereby winning. If the combat terminates in both target sets simultaneously or in neither, a joint capture or a draw, respectively, is said to occur. Resolution of the encounter is formulated as a combat game; namely, as a pair of competing event-constrained differential games. If exactly one of the players can win, the optimal strategies are determined from a resulting constrained zero-sum differential game. Otherwise the optimal strategies are computed from a resulting non-zero-sum game. Since optimal combat strategies frequencies may not exist, approximate of delta-combat games are also formulated leading to approximate or delta-optimal strategies. To illustrate combat games, an example, called the turret game, is considered. This game may be thought of as a highly simplified model of air combat, yet it is sufficiently complex to exhibit a rich variety of combat behavior, much of which is not found in pursuit-evasion games.

Heymann, M.↗

Space Station Astrometric Telescope tracking for the detection of planetary systems

The paper presents a comprehensive star observation and tracking strategy, which uses a computer simulation of the Space Station orbital mechanics, system constraints, and Astrometric Telescope Facility (ATF) tracking maneuvers over a long observational period. This approach may be used to obtain data which may assist in the preliminary systems definition of the ATF. Results are given for an analysis which uses a restricted target set in order to demonstrate the disproportionate effect of the galactic-photon-rate index on the observation times for each star.

Mascy, Alfred C.↗

Integrating automated support for a software management cycle into the TAME system

Software managers are interested in the quantitative management of software quality, cost and progress. An integrated software management methodology, which can be applied throughout the software life cycle for any number purposes, is required. The TAME (Tailoring A Measurement Environment) methodology is based on the improvement paradigm and the goal/question/metric (GQM) paradigm. This methodology helps generate a software engineering process and measurement environment based on the project characteristics. The SQMAR (software quality measurement and assurance technology) is a software quality metric system and methodology applied to the development processes. It is based on the feed forward control principle. Quality target setting is carried out before the plan-do-check-action activities are performed. These methodologies are integrated to realize goal oriented measurement, process control and visual management. A metric setting procedure based on the GQM paradigm, a management system called the software management cycle (SMC), and its application to a case study based on NASA/SEL data are discussed. The expected effects of SMC are quality improvement, managerial cost reduction, accumulation and reuse of experience, and a highly visual management reporting system.

Sunazuka, Toshihiko↗

Simulation Analysis of Computer-Controlled pressurization for Mixture Ratio Control

A procedural code (C++) simulation was developed to investigate potentials for mixture ratio control of pressure-fed spacecraft rocket propulsion systems by measuring propellant flows, tank liquid quantities, or both, and using feedback from these measurements to adjust propellant tank pressures to set the correct operating mixture ratio for minimum propellant residuals. The pressurization system eliminated mechanical regulators in favor of a computer-controlled, servo- driven throttling valve. We found that a quasi-steady state simulation (pressure and flow transients in the pressurization systems resulting from changes in flow control valve position are ignored) is adequate for this purpose. Monte-Carlo methods are used to obtain simulated statistics on propellant depletion. Mixture ratio control algorithms based on proportional-integral-differential (PID) controller methods were developed. These algorithms actually set target tank pressures; the tank pressures are controlled by another PID controller. Simulation indicates this approach can provide reductions in residual propellants.

Alexander, Leslie A.↗

The Herschel DUNES Open Time Key Programme

We will use the unique photometric capabilities provided by Herschel to perform a deep and systematic survey for faint, cold debris disks around nearby stars. Our sensitivity-limited Open Time Key Programme (OTKP) aims at finding and characterizing faint extrasolar analogues to the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt (EKB) in an unbiased, statistically significant sample of nearby FGK main-sequence stars. Our target set spans a broad range of stellar ages (from 0.1 to 10 Gyr) and is volume-limited (distances < 20 pc). All stars with known extrasolar planets within this distance are included; additionally, some M- and A-type stars will be observed in collaboration with the Herschel DEBRIS OTKP, so that the entire sample covers a decade in stellar mass, from 0.2 to 2 solar masses. We will perform PACS and SPIRE photometric observations covering the wavelength range from 70 to 500 microns. The PACS observations at 100 microns have been designed to detect the stellar photospheres down to the confusion limit with a signal-to-noise ratio > 5. The observations in the other Herschel bands will allow us to characterize, model, and constrain the disks. As a result, it will be possible for us to reach fractional dust luminosities of a few times 10-7, close to the EKB level in the Solar System. This will provide an unprecedented lower limit to the fractional abundance of planetesimal systems and allow us to assess the presence of giant planets, which would play dynamical roles similar to those played by Jupiter and Neptune in the Solar System. The proposed observations will provide new and unique evidence for the presence of mature planetary systems in the solar neighbourhood and, in turn, will address the universality of planet/planetary system formation in disks around young stars.

Danchi, William C.↗

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

Ice Particle Impacts on a Flat Plate

An experimental study was conducted at the Ballistic Laboratory of NASA Glenn Research Center to study the impact of ice particles on a stationary flat surface target set at 45 degrees with respect to the direction of motion of the impinging particle (Figure 1). The experiment is part of NASA efforts to study the physics involved in engine power-loss events due to ice-crystal ingestion and ice accretion formation inside engines. These events can occur when aircraft encounter high-altitude convective weather.

ice particle↗

2015 China Green Low-Carbon City scorecard

In China’s rapid urbanization and industrialization, cities are playing important roles in helping the country reach its climate change mitigation goal of peaking CO2 emissions around 2030, and improving environmental quality. During the 12th Five-Year Plan (12th FYP) period (2011–2015), Chinese cities set ambitious goals and implemented diverse policies aimed at transitioning to a greener economy. The Chinese central government also set targets on a number of indicators, such economic energy intensity and carbon intensity (e.g., CO2 per unit GDP), and air quality (e.g., PM2.5 concentration). These targets are helpful for tracking implementation of individual policies or progress at a sectoral level. However, a more comprehensive and integrated approach is needed to assess progress and capture the multi-dimensional aspects of Chinese cities’ transition to a greener economy, an approach that offers comparison with international best practices, as well as working with data availability in China’s statistical system. This paper presents the development of a China Green LowCarbon City Index2 (CGLCCI, or City Index) and its application to 115 Chinese cities – the largest assessment of Chinese cities to date. The GCLCCI includes 23 key indicators across seven categories: economy, energy, industry, buildings, transportation, environment and land use, and climate policy and outreach. This paper applied the CGLCCI to benchmark the green and low-carbon development status of 115 Chinese cities in the year 2015. Data for the analysis came from government and publicly available data sources. The CGLCCI methodology provides a standardized method to benchmark each indicator, calculate overall city scores, and rank the cities.3 The results showed that the low-carbon transition in Chinese cities is still in its early stages. Compared to the best practices benchmarks, the 2015 City Index scores ranged from a low of 28 to a high score of 70 in 2015 (maximum score is 100). This paper also presents three top-performing cities in different stages of development and discusses how their scores across the index categories. Creating a green low-carbon index that relies on publicly available data in China, and regularly evaluating city performance, can encourage Chinese cities to learn best practices from each other, and to strengthen their goals and implementation efforts toward a green low-carbon transition.

Zhang, Jingjing↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Bench Scale Integration WBS 2.4.1.100

Bench Scale Integration develops and optimizes fermentation processes to produce bio-based fuels and chemicals from biomass sugars. The project uses fermentation science to achieve high titers and production rates by, for example, manipulating how the microorganisms are fed biomass sugars and nutrients, modifying fermentation conditions (pH, temperature, aeration) or developing online control strategies that increase production rates. For this period of performance, we conducted small scale fermentation research using strategies mentioned to produce 2,3-butanediol (BDO) from biomass utilizing NREL's proprietary Zymomonas mobilis microorganism. BDO is a versatile chemical which can be catalytically upgraded to a variety of hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals. The 3-yr project goal was to increase BDO titers from 50 g/L (FY17 level) to 125 g/L on biomass sugars by 2020. This is a 150% increase in titer showing the commercial potential of Z. mobilis while reducing the cost to downstream processing. We successfully achieved this target. The project also showed yearly progress improvements to the process design case by using a whole biomass slurry. Future work will focus on procedures for scaling to produce large quantities of BDO broth for separations and upgrading R&D and improve the titer and rates from biomass whole slurry. Our goal is to produce 100 g/L BDO titer from whole slurry at >1000L by 2023 which will meet the technical targets set by our techno-economic analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Risk-informed Physical Security Using Dynamic Force-on-Force Modelling Tools (ABSTRACT)

Physical security requirement of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the US is regulated in a mainly prescriptive manner. This “one size fits all” approach may consequently overlook plant-specific characteristics which are beneficial for the inherent safety and security of the plant. Although a performance-based security measure has been promulgated in 10 CFR 73.55(r), current evaluation methods generally emphasize static and conservative assumptions on physical security uncertainties. This conservatism contributes to the overall operational and maintenance costs, which account to 70% of total operating expenditures for an NPP. This paper describes an ongoing work at the Idaho National Laboratory within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway, which aims to optimize physical protection system with regards to system effectiveness and dollar costs. To achieve this goal, a risk-informed approach to physical security is proposed. This approach leverages the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool to model facility infiltration and Force-on-Force (FoF) engagement in a dynamic manner. The dynamic FoF analysis was conducted by coupling human performance uncertainties modeled in EMRALD to existing commercial 3-dimensional FoF software, i.e. SCRIBE3D, AVERT and Simajin. Meanwhile, risk analysis was accomplished by coupling the attack outcomes to existing plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model with FLEX strategy. This approach reduces the conservatisms in security modeling and further acknowledges the possibility for plant operators to mitigate the attack outcomes. A sabotage attack on a hypothetical NPP facility was devised to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Dynamic FoF rules were implemented in EMRALD coupled to SCRIBE3D. This dynamic evaluation revealed an additional 21% system effectiveness in protecting the target set relative to the static modelling approach. Furthermore, the conditional core damage probability could be reduced by up to 46% by crediting operator actions in mitigating the sabotage outcomes. We evaluated the relative importance of each component of the physical security posture included in the model and assessed tradeoffs between components to identify potential opportunities for cost reduction while maintaining a specific level of system effectiveness. Results of the cost analysis will be presented in the conference. This study is expected to help NPP operators in allocating resources optimally to satisfy the security requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Decarbonization in Climate Resilience Planning

Recent executive orders such as E.O. 14008 require federal agencies to address climate change by enhancing resilience and reducing emissions through decarbonization. Traditionally, federal agencies require their sites to develop preparedness plans, such as continuity of operations plans and/or more comprehensive resilience plans. When climate change is included in these plans, the focus tends to be on climate adaptation solutions such as hardening infrastructure and not on climate mitigation through decarbonization. However, with the ambitious emission reductions targets set out by the federal government, it is essential to provide resources and tools to support energy and water managers in achieving decarbonization goals. To achieve this, there is a need for decarbonization to be incorporated into existing resilience planning processes. We discuss a method of incorporating a decarbonization analysis into an existing resilience planning process to create a holistic framework that considers climate adaptation, climate mitigation, and risk reduction priorities when developing and prioritizing solutions for federal sites. Site managers and decision makers must be aware of potential opportunities and trade-offs in meeting energy and water performance goals, emission reductions goals, and climate adaptation goals when developing technological, operational, or institutional resilience solutions. By combining these processes, energy and water managers can minimize the additional level of effort to ensure that their sites are not only able to withstand climate-related energy and water disruptions, but also contribute to climate mitigation. A holistic approach can help federal agencies serve as a model for incorporating decarbonization strategies into site-level resilience planning for the rest of the nation.

Elliott, Douglas B.↗

Routing Problem for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Patrolling Missions - A Progressive Hedging Algorithm

This paper presents a two-stage stochastic program to model a routing problem involving an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in the context of patrolling missions. In particular, given a set of targets and a set of supplemental targets corresponding to each target, the first stage decisions involve finding the sequence in which the vehicle has to visit the set of targets. Upon reaching each target, the UAV collects information and if the operator of the UAV deems that the information collected is not of sufficient fidelity, then the UAV has to visit all the supplemental targets corresponding to that target to collect additional information before proceeding to visit the next target. The problem is solved using a progressive hedging algorithm and extensive computational results corroborating the effectiveness of the proposed model and the solution methodology is presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗