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At least 127 records · Page 7

Fractional Modeling in Action: A Survey of Nonlocal Models for Subsurface Transport, Turbulent Flows, and Anomalous Materials

Modeling of phenomena such as anomalous transport via fractional-order differential equations has been established as an effective alternative to partial differential equations, due to the inherent ability to describe large-scale behavior with greater efficiency than fully-resolved classical models. In this review article, we first provide a broad overview of fractional-order derivatives with a clear emphasis on the stochastic processes that underlie their use. We then survey three exemplary application areas – subsurface transport, turbulence, and anomalous materials – in which fractional-order differential equations provide accurate and predictive models. For each area, we report on the evidence of anomalous behavior that justifies the use of fractional-order models, and survey both foundational models as well as more expressive state-of-the-art models. We also propose avenues for future research, including more advanced and physically sound models, as well as tools for calibration and discovery of fractional-order models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preliminary analysis of TREAT free-field experiments using openmc

This work analyses activation calculations for dosimetry materials during a steady-state irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor core. Hence, we developed a workflow based on the Monte Carlo code OpenMC alongside a custom depletion solver. The irradiation-induced activity as a function of time is computed, and several sensitivity studies are performed to evaluate uncertainty. This study has shown activity computations are sensitive to flux amplitude, irradiation time, atoms quantity and microscopic cross sections. Stochastic uncertainties have been propagated to evaluate the activity uncertainty for each dosimetry material. Most uncertainties are below our target of 3%, which demonstrates OpenMC as a powerful predictive and analysis tool. The precise results obtained through this newly developed computation scheme will be used in future experiments to characterize quantities of interest when operating the TREAT reactor in new configurations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantification of microtubule stutters: dynamic instability behaviors that are strongly associated with catastrophe

Microtubules (MTs) are cytoskeletal fibers that undergo dynamic instability (DI), a remarkable process involving phases of growth and shortening separated by stochastic transitions called catastrophe and rescue. Dissecting DI mechanism(s) requires first characterizing and quantifying these dynamics, a subjective process that often ignores complexity in MT behavior. We present a Statistical Tool for Automated Dynamic Instability Analysis (STADIA) that identifies and quantifies not only growth and shortening, but also a category of intermediate behaviors that we term “stutters.” During stutters, the rate of MT length change tends to be smaller in magnitude than during typical growth or shortening phases. Quantifying stutters and other behaviors with STADIA demonstrates that stutters precede most catastrophes in our in vitro experiments and dimer-scale MT simulations, suggesting that stutters are mechanistically involved in catastrophes. Related to this idea, we show that the anticatastrophe factor CLASP2γ works by promoting the return of stuttering MTs to growth. STADIA enables more comprehensive and data-driven analysis of MT dynamics compared with previous methods. The treatment of stutters as distinct and quantifiable DI behaviors provides new opportunities for analyzing mechanisms of MT dynamics and their regulation by binding proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Preliminary analysis of TREAT free-field experiments using OpenMC

This work analyses activation calculations for dosimetry materials during a steady-state irradiation in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) reactor core. Hence, we developed a workflow based on the Monte Carlo code OpenMC alongside a custom depletion solver. The irradiation-induced activity as a function of time is computed, and several sensitivity studies are performed to evaluate uncertainty. This study has shown activity computations are sensitive to flux amplitude, irradiation time, atoms quantity and microscopic cross sections. Stochastic uncertainties have been propagated to evaluate the activity uncertainty for each dosimetry material. Most uncertainties are below our target of 3%, which demonstrates OpenMC as a powerful predictive and analysis tool. The precise results obtained through this newly developed computation scheme will be used in future experiments to characterize quantities of interest when operating the TREAT reactor in new configurations.

61 - RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Algorithm advances and applications of time‐dependent first‐principles simulations for ultrafast dynamics

Abstract Far from equilibrium phenomenon is a central theme of contemporary material research. Such phenomenon can exhibit itself in atomic structure and dynamics, but very often it also happens as non‐equilibrium phenomenon in the electronic structure. In ab initio material simulation, density functional theory (DFT) has played an essential role in studying electronic ground state problems. For excited states, besides many‐body perturbation theory, another powerful tool is the time dependent DFT (TDDFT) method. In particular, the real‐time TDDFT (rt‐TDDFT) method can be used to simulate many non‐equilibrium phenomena directly. Here we introduce our works on some algorithm advances based on our recently rt‐TDDFT method. This method uses the plane‐wave basis set, and significantly accelerates its efficiency by increasing the time step from 0.1–1 as in traditional methods to 0.2–0.5 fs. The noncollinear magnetic moments and spin–orbit coupling have also been included in our rt‐TDDFT method. Furthermore, a Boltzmann‐TDDFT algorithm has been developed to solve the hot carrier overheating problem in Ehrenfest dynamics, and a natural orbital branching algorithm has been developed to overcome the mean‐field approximation in Ehrenfest dynamics nuclear trajectory, thus allows stochastic multiple paths in chemical reactions. Utilizing these methods, we have studied the photoinduced ultrafast demagnetization, ultrafast phase transition, energy transfer between plasmon and hot carriers, as well as the high‐energy ion implantation and low‐energy atomic diffusion in semiconductors. We believe the tools as the ones introduced here can enable us to study a wide range of phenomena which are of great interest in modern day material research. This article is categorized under: Structure and Mechanism > Computational Materials Science Electronic Structure Theory > Ab Initio Electronic Structure Methods Electronic Structure Theory > Density Functional Theory

Liu, Wen‐Hao↗

Catalyst: Fast and flexible modeling of reaction networks

We introduce Catalyst.jl, a flexible and feature-filled Julia library for modeling and high-performance simulation of chemical reaction networks (CRNs). Catalyst supports simulating stochastic chemical kinetics (jump process), chemical Langevin equation (stochastic differential equation), and reaction rate equation (ordinary differential equation) representations for CRNs. Through comprehensive benchmarks, we demonstrate that Catalyst simulation runtimes are often one to two orders of magnitude faster than other popular tools. More broadly, Catalyst acts as both a domain-specific language and an intermediate representation for symbolically encoding CRN models as Julia-native objects. This enables a pipeline of symbolically specifying, analyzing, and modifying CRNs; converting Catalyst models to symbolic representations of concrete mathematical models; and generating compiled code for numerical solvers. Leveraging ModelingToolkit.jl and Symbolics.jl, Catalyst models can be analyzed, simplified, and compiled into optimized representations for use in numerical solvers. Finally, we demonstrate Catalyst’s broad extensibility and composability by highlighting how it can compose with a variety of Julia libraries, and how existing open-source biological modeling projects have extended its intermediate representation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Time-Dependent Surrogates of Additive-Manufactured Nuclear Fuels Processes

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas for its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. Recently, a hybrid AM technique was successfully developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to manufacture nuclear fuels [1]. Despite the advantages, this AM technique needs optimization due to defects from a highly complex melting and sintering process. The complex metallurgical phenomena during AM processes are strongly related to parameters such as applied laser power, traveling speed, and scan style, which could lead to differences in density, residual stress, crystallographic texture, and mechanical properties. In addition, stochastic variations in laser energy interaction and associated multiscale/multiphysics phenomena cause variations in microstructure evolution and mechanical properties. Currently, researchers at INL are focusing on developing a comprehensive modeling framework, leveraging INL’s simulation tools MOOSE/MARMOT/BISON/RAVEN [2-4] to describe all steps of this AM process across multiple length scales. Although this advanced framework plays a critical role in enabling enhancements to traditional trial and error approaches for design and optimization of nuclear fuel materials, it remains computationally intense, limiting its use in sensitivity and optimization analysis. In this case, an accurate and inexpensive surrogate becomes an effective tool for providing a tractable approximation of the underlying underline physics. Surrogate models generally not based on the physics of a system are purely mathematical models used to capture the relationships between specific system inputs and outputs. Popular approaches, including neural networks [5], response surfaces [6], and subspace-based reduced order models [7], have been applied to a wide range of disciplines, such as nuclear reactor design, aerospace design and automotive design. In this summary, we employ advanced time-dependent surrogate models such as high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) [8] and physics-informed deep neural network (PINNs) [9] to accelerate the design and optimization of AM process.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COVID-19 Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT): Exposure quantification based on ventilation, infection prevalence, group characteristics, and behavior

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exposure Assessment Tool (CEAT) allows users to compare respiratory relative risk to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for various scenarios, providing understanding of how combinations of protective measures affect risk. CEAT incorporates mechanistic, stochastic, and epidemiological factors including the (i) emission rate of virus, (ii) viral aerosol degradation and removal, (iii) duration of activity/exposure, (iv) inhalation rates, (v) ventilation rates (indoors/outdoors), (vi) volume of indoor space, (vii) filtration, (viii) mask use and effectiveness, (ix) distance between people (taking into account both near-field and far-field effects of proximity), (x) group size, (xi) current infection rates by variant, (xii) prevalence of infection and immunity in the community, (xiii) vaccination rates, and (xiv) implementation of COVID-19 testing procedures. CEAT applied to published studies of COVID-19 transmission events demonstrates the model’s accuracy. We also show how health and safety professionals at NASA Ames Research Center used CEAT to manage potential risks posed by SARS-CoV-2 exposures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The maintenance of coherent vortex topology by Lagrangian chaos in drift-Rossby wave turbulence

Here, this work introduces the “potential vorticity bucket brigade,” a mechanism for explaining the resilience of vortex structures in magnetically confined fusion plasmas and geophysical flows. Drawing parallels with zonal jet formation, we show how inhomogeneous patterns of mixing can reinforce, rather than destroy non-zonal flow structure. We accomplish this through an exact stochastic Lagrangian representation of vorticity transport, together with a near-integrability property, which relates coherent flow topology to fluid relabeling symmetries. We demonstrate these ideas in the context of gradient-driven magnetized plasma turbulence, though the tools we develop here are model-agnostic and applicable beyond the system studied here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Understanding and Controlling Photoexcited Molecules in Complex Environments (Final Technical Report)

Predicting the outcome of a photochemical reaction is complicated by factors outside the scope of tradition theoretical chemistry. On such small scales, fluctuations of the environment render outcomes stochastic, nonadiabatic dynamics blur the separation between nuclear and electronic motion, and ultrafast relaxation renders typical assumptions of equilibrium inappropriate. This project aimed to elucidate and control nonadiabatic molecular dynamics in condensed phases. We developed accurate, efficient simulation tools to study irreversible molecular processes computational across a range of scales. We applied these methodological advances to study electron transfer under exotic conditions where spin and topology opened new pathways for reactivity. We also brought these ideas to bare on light harvesting systems, where energy and charge transport are coupled, and where long lifetimes can be deleterious to function. These advances helped to establish general principles for chemical efficiency and guide the design of nanoscale energy materials, molecular machines, and related technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental Validation of Approximate Dynamic Programming Based Optimization and Convergence on Microgrid Applications

Stochastic optimization can better address uncertainties in power system problems. However, when state space and action space become large, many existing approaches become computationally expensive and even infeasible. Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) attracts researchers’ attention as a powerful tool for solving power system optimization problems with reduced computational cost. In this paper, in light of the existing literature, we investigate how the ADP approach with post-decision value function approximation converges to the nearly optimal solution with improved computational speed and experimentally validate the performance of the approach for a microgrid energy optimization problem. The approximation error versus the number of iteration is studied for convergence analysis of the post-decision ADP. A flowchart is provided to illustrate the proposed ADP algorithm for a microgrid energy optimization problem. The performance of ADP and dynamic programming (DP) is compared in terms of optimization error and computational time. It has found that the post-decision ADP approach can achieve competitive optimality with improved computational speed compared to the traditional DP.

Das, Avijit↗

Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics

Residential customers use more than one-quarter of the electricity in the world. Optimally managing home energy consumption is an effective way of easing the operational challenges facing the electric grid with increasing solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper studies the impact of the future proliferation of home energy management systems (HEMS) in the presence of PV on large-scale distribution systems. First, we present a stochastic HEMS model that minimizes residential customers' thermal discomfort and energy costs under uncertainty. The HEMS model schedules the optimal operations of residential appliances in the presence of PV within a mixed-integer linear programming-based model predictive control framework that links the proposed HEMS to a quasi-steady-state time-series simulation tool. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted for a stand-alone residential home using two tariff structures and for 1977 homes on an 8,500-node distribution feeder. Simulation results quantify the impact of the future proliferation of HEMS on the large-scale distribution system with PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resilience Development for Electric Energy Delivery Sytems (ResDEEDS): A Tool for Power System Resilience Planning (Rev. 1)

The INL Resilience Framework is built to be customized to a particular system’s characteristics, resilience goals, and hazards that it is likely to face. The challenge with a framework that is built to be customized is that it requires more effort from the user to understand the framework and apply it correctly to a particular system. The goal of the web application described here is to automate the framework application as much as possible. Inputs from users are standardized into a common format, but the modeling platform used is a modular framework built to adapt to any system. Baseline effects from common hazards are programmed with stochastic variables to allow for quick exploration of hazard impacts, but can be customized down to component-level impact if a user desires a high level of detail and specificity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Role of interaction between hydraulic and natural fractures on production

One of the main purposes of hydraulic fracturing in unconventional resources such as shale is to improve the connectivity between existing natural fractures and the production well. Since the inherent permeability of shale is extremely low, this newly formed fracture connectivity provides faster paths for the hydrocarbon stored in preexisting natural fractures. In this study, we performed numerical simulations of the free gas production at large scale fractured reservoir with different pre-existing natural fracture network intensities and with variable hydraulic fracture sizes and staging. We explored production characteristics as a function of the properties of both, natural fractures (intensity) and hydraulic fractures (size and staging). Our hypothesis is that once maximum fracture connectivity is achieved, additional stimulation does not increase production significantly. In this numerical study we use an advanced modeling tool to study fractures connectivity, Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) approach, which can represent fracture networks similar to those observed on individual reservoir sites. In our model the horizontal production well and vertical hydraulic fractures were deterministically defined and surrounded by stochastically generated natural fracture networks. The performed numerical experiments show how fracture connectivity depends on hydraulic fracture settings in fractured reservoir with different preexisting fracture densities. We numerically showed that cumulative free gas production is not affected significantly by hydraulic fractures size (25 m–150 m) or spacing (15 m–45 m) for dense natural fracture networks. However, the hydraulic fracture size is important in reservoirs with sparse natural fractures, although spacing (number of stages) does not play a significant role.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Self-consistent simulation of resistive kink instabilities with runaway electrons

A new fluid model for runaway electron simulation based on fluid description is introduced and implemented in the magnetohydrodynamics code M3D-C1, which includes self-consistent interactions between plasma and runaway electrons. The model utilizes the method of characteristics to solve the continuity equation for the runaway electron density with large convection speed, and uses a modified Boris algorithm for pseudo particle pushing. The model was employed to simulate magnetohydrodynamics instabilities happening in a runaway electron final loss event in the DIII-D tokamak. Nonlinear simulation reveals that a large fraction of runaway electrons get lost to the wall when kink instabilities are excited and form stochastic field lines in the outer region of the plasma. Plasma current converts from runaway electron current to Ohmic current, and get pinched at the magnetic axis. Here, given the good agreement with experiment, the simulation model provides a reliable tool to study macroscopic plasma instabilities in existence of runaway electron current, and can be used to support future studies of runaway electron mitigation strategies in ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗