Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistics of extremes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Sub-quarter micrometer periodically poled Al 0.68 Sc 0.32 N for ultra-wideband photonics and acoustic devices

In this study, we demonstrate the ability of polarity inversion of sputtered aluminum scandium nitride thin films through post-fabrication processes with domain widths as small as 220 nm at a periodicity of 440 nm. An approach using photo- and electron-beam lithography to generate sub-quarter micrometer feature size with adjustable duty cycle through a lift-off process is presented. Here, the film with a coercive field $E_c^+$ of 5.35 MV/cm was exercised first with a 1 kHz triangular double bipolar wave and ultimately poled with a 0.5 kHz double monopolar wave using a Radiant Precision Premier II tester. The metal polar (M-polar) and nitrogen polar (N-polar) domains were identified and characterized through potassium hydroxide wet etching as well as piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM). Well-distinguished boundaries between the oppositely polarized domain regions were confirmed through the phase diagram of the PFM results. The relationship between the electrode width, poling voltage, and domain growth was experimentally studied and statistically analyzed, where 7.96 nm/V domain width broadening vs escalating poling voltage was observed. This method produces extremely high domain spatial resolution in III-nitride materials via poling and is transferable to a CMOS-compatible photolithography process. The spatial resolution of the periodically poled Al 0.68 Sc 0.32 N is suitable for second-harmonic generation of deep ultraviolet through quasi-phase-matching and RF MEMS operating in the X-Band spectrum.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Omics-Lethal Human Viruses, MERS-CoV Experiment MCL003

The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the human host response to wild-type icMERS-CoV virus infection and mockulum. Sample data was obtained from human lung adenocarcinoma cells (Calu-3) for proteome, metabolome, and lipidome expression analysis. Resulting quantitative data profiles were evaluated for extreme outlier behavior using MPLEX protocol. Secondary host-associated viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics, metabolomics, and lipidomics dataset download each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific MERS-CoV virus infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Passive Inter-Photon Imaging

Digital camera pixels measure image intensities by converting incident light energy into an analog electrical current, and then digitizing it into a fixed-width binary representation. This direct measurement method, while conceptually simple, suffers from limited dynamic range and poor performance under extreme illumination --- electronic noise dominates under low illumination, and pixel full-well capacity results in saturation under bright illumination. We propose a novel intensity cue based on measuring inter-photon timing, defined as the time delay between detection of successive photons. Based on the statistics of inter-photon times measured by a time-resolved single-photon sensor, we develop theory and algorithms for a scene brightness estimator which works over extreme dynamic range; we experimentally demonstrate imaging scenes with a dynamic range of over ten million to one. The proposed techniques, aided by the emergence of single-photon sensors such as single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs) with picosecond timing resolution, will have implications for a wide range of imaging applications: robotics, consumer photography, astronomy, microscopy and biomedical imaging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The hidden structure of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks

We study the large-scale dynamics and prediction of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks. The flow and transport behaviour is characterized by first passage times and displacement statistics, which show heavy tails and anomalous dispersion with a strong dependence on the injection condition. The origin of these behaviours is investigated in terms of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along particle trajectories, unlike classical sampling strategies at a constant rate. The velocity series are analysed by their copula density, the joint distribution of the velocity unit scores, which reveals a simple, albeit hidden, correlation structure that can be described by a Gaussian copula. Based on this insight, we derive a Langevin equation for the evolution of equidistant particle speeds. In this framework, particle motion is quantified by a stochastic time-domain random walk, the joint density of particle position, and speed satisfies a Klein–Kramers equation. The upscaled theory quantifies particle motion in terms of the characteristic fracture length scale and the distribution of Eulerian flow velocities. That is, it is predictive in the sense that it does not require the a priori knowledge of transport attributes. The upscaled model captures non-Fickian transport features, and their dependence on the injection conditions in terms of the velocity point statistics and average fracture length. It shows that the first passage times and displacement moments are dominated by extremes occurring at the first step. The presented approach integrates the interaction of flow and structure into a predictive model for large-scale transport in random fracture networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A method for predicting failure statistics for steady state elevated temperature structural components

This paper presents the initial development of a high temperature life prediction method that accounts for the variability in the material properties of Grade 91 steel. The method accounts for material variability by fitting a variable 3-parameter Weibull distribution to experimental rupture data and accounts for the variability of creep deformation on the steady-state stresses via a Monte Carlo approach. To ensure reasonable computational times, the model represents the material as an extremely viscous Stokes fluid with a non-Newtonian viscosity, therefore solving the stress relaxation problem with a steady, static, instead of transient, analysis. Furthermore, the complete statistical analysis combines this model for creep deformation with a probabilistic model for creep rupture to evaluate the probability of premature failure for a set of sample problems, comparing the predicted failure statistics to the design life predicted by the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code rules.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Big Data Analytics for Long-Term Meteorological Observations at Hanford Site

A growing number of physical objects with embedded sensors with typically high volume and frequently updated data sets has accentuated the need to develop methodologies to extract useful information from big data for supporting decision making. This study applies a suite of data analytics and core principles of data science to characterize near real-time meteorological data with a focus on extreme weather events. To highlight the applicability of this work and make it more accessible from a risk management perspective, a foundation for a software platform with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to access and analyze data from a decommissioned nuclear production complex operated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, Richland, USA). Exploratory data analysis (EDA), involving classical non-parametric statistics, and machine learning (ML) techniques, were used to develop statistical summaries and learn characteristic features of key weather patterns and signatures. The new approach and GUI provide key insights into using big data and ML to assist site operation related to safety management strategies for extreme weather events. Specifically, this work offers a practical guide to analyzing long-term meteorological data and highlights the integration of ML and classical statistics to applied risk and decision science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Can multi-annual variations in the frequency of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and mid-latitude circulation regimes be skilfully predicted? Recent advances in seasonal forecasting have shown that mid-latitude climate variability does exhibit significant predictability. However, atmospheric predictability has generally been found to be quite limited on multi-annual timescales. New decadal prediction experiments from NCAR are found to exhibit remarkable skill in reproducing the observed multi-annual variations of wintertime blocking frequency over the North Atlantic and of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) itself. This is partly due to the large ensemble size that allows the predictable component of the atmospheric variability to emerge from the background chaotic component. The predictable atmospheric anomalies represent a forced response to oceanic low-frequency variability that strongly resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), correctly reproduced in the decadal hindcasts thanks to realistic ocean initialization and ocean dynamics. The occurrence of blocking in certain areas of the Euro-Atlantic domain determines the concurrent circulation regime and the phase of known teleconnections, such as the NAO, consequently affecting the stormtrack and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Therefore, skilfully predicting the decadal fluctuations of blocking frequency and the NAO may be used in statistical predictions of near-term climate anomalies, and it provides a strong indication that impactful climate anomalies may also be predictable with improved dynamical models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

First detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from TXS 1515–273, study of its X-ray variability and spectral energy distribution

ABSTRACT We report here on the first multiwavelength (MWL) campaign on the blazar TXS 1515–273, undertaken in 2019 and extending from radio to very-high-energy gamma-rays (VHE). Up until now, this blazar had not been the subject of any detailed MWL observations. It has a rather hard photon index at GeV energies and was considered a candidate extreme high-synchrotron-peaked source. MAGIC observations resulted in the first-time detection of the source in VHE with a statistical significance of 7.6σ. The average integral VHE flux of the source is 6 ± 1 per cent of the Crab nebula flux above 400 GeV. X-ray coverage was provided by Swift-XRT, XMM–Newton, and NuSTAR. The long continuous X-ray observations were separated by ∼9 h, both showing clear hour scale flares. In the XMM–Newton data, both the rise and decay time-scales are longer in the soft X-ray than in the hard X-ray band, indicating the presence of a particle cooling regime. The X-ray variability time-scales were used to constrain the size of the emission region and the strength of the magnetic field. The data allowed us to determine the synchrotron peak frequency and classify the source as a flaring high, but not extreme synchrotron-peaked object. Considering the constraints and variability patterns from the X-ray data, we model the broad-band spectral energy distribution. We applied a simple one-zone model, which could not reproduce the radio emission and the shape of the optical emission, and a two-component leptonic model with two interacting components, enabling us to reproduce the emission from radio to VHE band.

Acciari, V. A.↗

Fatigue of laser powder bed fusion processed 17-4 stainless steel using prior process exposed powder feedstock

The rapid pace of development seen in the metal additive manufacturing (AM) process of laser powder-bed fusion (LPBF) requires in-step advances in processes qualification to enable full-scale adoption. This particularly applies to quantifying how powder feedstock conditions impact end-component quality. Here this study examines how in-machine 17-4 stainless steel powder feedstocks are affected by prior LPBF processes, and how these effects impact subsequent builds. Examinations of powder morphology, chemistry, flowability, and rheology were conducted to characterize the powder conditions. The resultant effects of powder feedstock condition on produced component quasi-static tensile and high-cycle fatigue properties were analyzed. Fatigue life was analyzed using a reliability modeling approach that enabled a robust statistical comparison of life. Powder characteristics were found to evolve with powder exposure to prior LPBF processes, particularly in the extremes of powder size distribution and measures of bulk flow. No significant effects of these changes on tensile properties were observed. Reliability modeling methods, including the lognormal and Weibull distributions as well as the empirical survival function, are shown to be effective tools for modeling fatigue variability in LPBF manufactured components. Through these tools, fatigue life was found to be invariant with changes in powder condition.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Vapor kinetic energy for the detection and understanding of atmospheric rivers

Poleward water vapor transport in the midlatitudes mainly occurs in meandering filaments of intense water vapor transport, spanning thousands of kilometers long and hundreds of kilometers wide and moving eastward. The water vapor filaments are known as atmospheric rivers (ARs). They can cause extreme wind gusts, intense precipitation, and flooding along densely populated coastal regions. Many recent studies about ARs focused on the statistical analyses of ARs, but a process-level understanding of ARs remains elusive. Here we show that ARs are streams of air with enhanced vapor kinetic energy (VKE) and derive a governing equation for Integrated VKE to understand what contributes to the evolution of ARs. We find that ARs grow mainly because of potential energy conversion to kinetic energy, decay largely owing to condensation and turbulence, and the eastward movement is primarily due to horizontal advection of VKE. Our VKE framework complements the integrated vapor transport framework, which is popular for identifying ARs but lacks a prognostic equation for understanding the physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Search of the Full Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey for Outer Solar System Objects

We present a search for outer solar system objects in the 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The DES covered a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky with ≈80,000 3 deg 2 exposures in the grizY filters between 2013 and 2019. This search yielded 812 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), one Centaur and one Oort cloud comet, 458 reported here for the first time. We present methodology that builds upon our previous search on the first 4 yr of data. All images were reprocessed with an optimized detection pipeline that leads to an average completeness gain of 0.47 mag per exposure, as well as improved transient catalog production and algorithms for linkage of detections into orbits. All objects were verified by visual inspection and by the “sub-threshold significance,” the signal-to-noise ratio in the stack of images in which its presence is indicated by the orbit, but no detection was reported. This yields a pure catalog complete to r ≈ 23.8 mag and distances 29 < d < 2500 au. The TNOs have minimum (median) of 7 (12) nights’ detections and arcs of 1.1 (4.2) yr, and will have grizY magnitudes available in a further publication. We present software for simulating our observational biases for comparisons of models to our detections. Initial inferences demonstrating the catalog’s statistical power are: the data are inconsistent with the CFEPS-L7 model for the classical Kuiper Belt; the 16 “extreme” TNOs (a > 150 au, q > 30 au) are consistent with the null hypothesis of azimuthal isotropy; and nonresonant TNOs with q > 38 au, a > 50 au show a significant tendency to be sunward of major mean-motion resonances.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗

The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO 2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implications of Microstructure in Helium-Implanted Nanocrystalline Metals

Helium bubbles are known to form in nuclear reactor structural components when displacement damage occurs in conjunction with helium exposure and/or transmutation. If left unchecked, bubble production can cause swelling, blistering, and embrittlement, all of which substantially degrade materials and—moreover—diminish mechanical properties. On the mission to produce more robust materials, nanocrystalline (NC) metals show great potential and are postulated to exhibit superior radiation resistance due to their high defect and particle sink densities; however, much is still unknown about the mechanisms of defect evolution in these systems under extreme conditions. Here, the performances of NC nickel (Ni) and iron (Fe) are investigated under helium bombardment via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Bubble density statistics are measured as a function of grain size in specimens implanted under similar conditions. While the overall trends revealed an increase in bubble density up to saturation in both samples, bubble density in Fe was over 300% greater than in Ni. To interrogate the kinetics of helium diffusion and trapping, a rate theory model is developed that substantiates that helium is more readily captured within grains in helium-vacancy complexes in NC Fe, whereas helium is more prone to traversing the grain matrices and migrating to GBs in NC Ni. Our results suggest that (1) grain boundaries can affect bubble swelling in grain matrices significantly and can have a dominant effect over crystal structure, and (2) an NC-Ni-based material can yield superior resistance to irradiation-induced bubble growth compared to an NC-Fe-based material and exhibits high potential for use in extreme environments where swelling due to He bubble formation is of significant concern.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗