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At least 127 records · Page 7

ARM Research in the Equatorial Western Pacific: A Decade and Counting

The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an important climatic region. Strong solar heating, warm sea surface temperatures, and the annual progression of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across this region generate abundant convective systems, which through their effects on the heat and water budgets have a profound impact on global climate and precipitation. In order to accurately evaluate tropical cloud systems in models, measurements of tropical clouds, the environment in which they reside, and their impact on the radiation and water budgets are needed. Because of the remote location, ground-based datasets of cloud, atmosphere, and radiation properties from the TWP region have come primarily from short-term field experiments. While providing extremely useful information on physical processes, these short-term datasets are limited in statistical and climatological information. To provide longterm measurements of the surface radiation budget in the tropics and the atmospheric properties that affect it, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program established a measurement site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, in 1996 and on the island republic of Nauru in late 1998. These sites provide unique datasets now available for more than 10 years on Manus and Nauru. This article presents examples of the scientific use of these datasets including characterization of cloud properties, analysis of cloud radiative forcing, model studies of tropical clouds and processes, and validation of satellite algorithms. New instrumentation recently installed at the Manus site will provide expanded opportunities for tropical atmospheric science.

tropical regions↗

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

Sedlak, J.↗

Osse Sky Survey Observations for Cycles Three Extreme Red Egret Blazars

The original purpose of this work was to probe EGRET sources of low significance, and to use statistical techniques to construct a log N - log S of sources at greater than 50 MeV. At this writing, the detection significance of EGRET sources is still an issue. Therefore, we shifted our focus to the known EGRET detections. These came in two groups: (a) the known blazars; and (b) the high-Galactic latitude EGRET sources not identified with optical (or radio) counterparts.

Schachter, Jonathan F.↗

An overview of mesoscale prediction

A development history is presented for techniques used in mesoscale weather prediction over the course of the last 40 years, in which they have undergone a major transition from low-tech to high-tech. Remote sensing satellites and weather radars are now extremely refined tools for mesoscale atmospheric studies. Attention is given to mesocyclones and tornadoes, the statistical prediction of tornadoes, and the status of mesoscale prediction for aviation and space vehicles.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Radio occultation studies of the Venus atmosphere with the Magellan spacecraft. 1: Experimental description and performance

While primarily designed for radar studies of the Venus surface, the high effective isotropic radiated power (EIRP) from the Magellan spacecraft makes it an ideal transmitter for use in radio occultation measurements of the refractivity and absorptivity of the Venus atmosphere. Such experiments have been conducted involving transmissions at 2.3 GHz and 8.4 GHz (13 cm and 3.6 cm, respectively), during spacecraft ingress. Since the stability of the spacecraft transmitter is critical for accurately determining the Doppler shift and amplitude attenuation created as the ray penetrates the atmosphere, the spacecraft transmitter was locked to a 2.1 GHz uplink from a 70-meter DSN station which also received the signals. Because of the high directivity of the spacecraft antenna, and the significant ray bending in the deep Venus atmosphere, a spacecraft tracking maneuver was designed to keep the spacecraft antenna pointed in the direction of the refracted ray path back to Earth. This tracking maneuver, plus the high EIRP of the Magellan transmitter has yielded 3.6 cm refractivity and absorptivity profiles down to the 35 km altitude and 13 cm profiles down to the altitude of critical refraction (approximately 33 km). The statistical uncertainties in the derived profiles are significantly lower than those previously obtained, resulting in extremely accurate profiles of H2SO4 (g) abundance as discussed in an accompanying paper.

Steffes, Paul G.↗

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone

Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at ail attitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 +/- 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 +/- 4.6% per decade at 15 km attitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the altitude range of 10 to 18 km, with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades.

Randel, William J.↗

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone

Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at all altitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 plus or minus 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 plus or minus -4.6% per decade at 15 km altitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the attitude range of 10 to 18 km, with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades.

Randel, William J.↗

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone

Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at all attitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 +/- 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 +/- 4.6% per decade at 15 km attitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the attitude range of 10 to 18 km. with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades,

Cunnold, Derek M.↗

Correlations of Prompt and Afterglow Emission in Swift Long and Short Gamma Ray Bursts

Correlation studies of prompt and afterglow emissions from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) between different spectral bands has been difficult to do in the past because few bursts had comprehensive and intercomparable afterglow measurements. In this paper we present a large and uniform data set for correlation analysis based on bursts detected by the Swift mission. For the first time, short and long bursts can be analyzed and compared. It is found for both classes that the optical, X-ray and gamma-ray emissions are linearly correlated, but with a large spread about the correlation line; stronger bursts tend to have brighter afterglows, and bursts with brighter X-ray afterglow tend to have brighter optical afterglow. Short bursts are, on average, weaker in both prompt and afterglow emissions. No short bursts are seen with extremely low optical to X-ray ratio as occurs for 'dark' long bursts. Although statistics are still poor for short bursts, there is no evidence yet for a subgroup of short bursts with high extinction as there is for long bursts. Long bursts are detected in the dark category at the same fraction as for pre-Swift bursts. Interesting cases are discovered of long bursts that are detected in the optical, and yet have low enough optical to X-ray ratio to be classified as dark. For the prompt emission, short and long bursts have different average tracks on flux vs fluence plots. In Swift, GRB detections tend to be fluence limited for short bursts and flux limited for long events.

Gehrel, Neil↗

Seasonal Impact of Regional Outdoor Biomass Burning on Air Pollution in Three Indian Cities: Delhi, Bengaluru, and Pune

Air pollution in many of India's cities exceeds national and international standards, and effective pollution control strategies require knowledge of the sources that contribute to air pollution and their spatiotemporal variability. In this study, we examine the influence of a single pollution source, outdoor biomass burning, on particulate matter (PM) concentrations, surface visibility, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from 2007 to 2013 in three of the most populous Indian cities. We define the upwind regions, or "airsheds," for the cities by using atmospheric back trajectories from the HYSPLIT model. Using satellite fire radiative power (FRP) observations as a measure of fire activity, we target pre-monsoon and post-monsoon fires upwind of the Delhi National Capital Region and pre-monsoon fires surrounding Bengaluru and Pune. We find varying contributions of outdoor fires to different air quality metrics. For the post-monsoon burning season, we find that a subset of local meteorological variables (air temperature, humidity, sea level pressure, wind speed and direction) and FRP as the only pollution source explained 39% of variance in Delhi station PM(sub 10) anomalies, 77% in visibility, and 30% in satellite AOD; additionally, per unit increase in FRP within the daily airshed (1000 MW), PM(sub 10) increases by 16.34 micrograms per cubic meter, visibility decreases by 0.097 km, and satellite AOD increases by 0.07. In contrast, for the pre-monsoon burning season, we find less significant contributions from FRP to air quality in all three cities. Further, we attribute 99% of FRP from post-monsoon outdoor fires within Delhi's average airshed to agricultural burning. Our work suggests that although outdoor fires are not the dominant air pollution source in India throughout the year, post-monsoon fires contribute substantially to regional air pollution and high levels of population exposure around Delhi. During 3-day blocks of extreme PM(sub 2.5) in the 2013 post-monsoon burning season, which coincided with statistically significant high fire activity, concentrations in Delhi averaged 304 micrograms per cubic meter, or more than 1000% above the 24-h PM(sub 2.5) guideline (25 micrograms per cubic meter) of the World Health Organization. These results suggest that providing viable alternatives to agricultural residue burning could help improve post-monsoon air quality for a growing population of 63 million (39% in urban areas) within Delhi's airshed.

Air quality; Outdoor fires; Crop residue burning; ↗

Trajectory Planning for Mission Survivability of Autonomous Vehicles in Moderately to Extremely Uncertain Environments

Trajectory planning is a particularly challenging task for autonomous vehicles when the uncertainties in their operating environment cannot be characterized statistically. In this paper, we propose a receding horizon control strategy with novel trajectory planning policies that enable dynamic updating of the planned trajectories of autonomous vehicles operating in environments where potential conflicts are, from a statistical perspective, either partially known or completely unknown. The proposed policies utilize two metrics: (1) the number of feasible trajectories; and (2) the robustness of the feasible trajectories. We measure the effectiveness of the suggested policies in terms of mission survivability, which is defined as the probability that the primary mission is accomplished or, if that is not possible, the vehicle lands safely at an alternative site. We show that a linear combination of both metrics is an effective objective function when there is a mix of partially known and unknown uncertainties. When the operating environment is dominated by unknown disturbances, maximizing the number of feasible trajectories results in the highest mission survivability. These findings have significant implications for achieving safe aviation. autonomy.

Aviation autonomy↗

Net field-aligned currents observed by Triad

From the Triad magnetometer observation of a step-like level shift in the east-west component of the magnetic field at 800 km altitude, the existence of a net current flowing into or away from the ionosphere in a current layer was inferred. The current direction is toward the ionosphere on the morning side and away from it on the afternoon side. The field aligned currents observed by Triad are considered as being an important element in the electro-dynamical coupling between the distant magnetosphere and the ionosphere. The current density integrated over the thickness of the layer increases with increasing magnetic activity, but the relation between the current density and Kp in individual cases is not a simple linear relation. An extrapolation of the statistical relation to Kp = 0 indicates existence of a sheet current of order 0.1 amp/m even at extremely quiet times. During periods of higher magnetic activity an integrated current of approximately 1 amp/m and average current density of order 0.000001 amp/sq m are observed. The location and the latitudinal width of the field aligned current layer carrying the net current very roughly agree with those of the region of high electron intensities in the trapping boundary.

Sugiura, M.↗

Seismic energy transmission in an intensively scattering environment

In order to account for some special features of lunar seismograms, namely, the gradual build-up of the signal, the extremely prolonged tail, and the lack of apparent coherence among three orthogonal components of ground motion, a statistical approach is proposed for describing transmission of seismic energy through a medium in which strong scattering takes place. A seismic diffusion theory is presented for a medium with randomly distributed scatterers of a given size distribution. A solution of the resulting diffusion equation for an impulsive energy source gives a curve which fairly closely reproduces the envelope of typical lunar impact seismograms. Since the model is based on constant diffusivity, long-range transmission will require a combination of diffusion and wave propagation treatments for accurate description.

Nakamura, Y.↗

In quest of lunar regolith breccias of exotic provenance - A uniquely anorthositic sample from the Fra Mauro (Apollo 14) highlands

Bulk compositions of 21 Apollo regolith breccias were determined using an INAA procedure modified from that of Kallemeyn et al. (1989). With one major exception, namely, the 14076,1 sample, the regolith breccias analyzed were found to be not significantly different from the surfaces from which they were collected. In contrast, the 14076,1 sample from the Fra Mauro (Apollo 14) region is a highly anorthositic regolith breccia from a site where anorthosites are extremely scarce. The sample's composition resembles soils from the Descartes (Apollo 16) highlands. However, the low statistical probability for long-distance horizontal transport by impact cratering, together with the relatively high contents of imcompatible elements in 14076,1 suggest that this regolith breccia originated within a few hundred kilometers of the Apollo 14 site. Its compositional resemblance to ferroan anorthosite strengthens the hypothesis that ferroan anorthosite originated as the flotation crust of a global magmasphere.

Jerde, Eric A.↗

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Decker, Ryan K.↗

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Decker, Ryan K.↗

Winds aloft statistical analysis in support of day of launch Shuttle systems evaluation

In connection with the development of the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) for utilization by the Launch Systems Evaluation Advisory Team (LSEAT), requirements have been established to expand the pre-launch analysis of winds aloft for the Space Shuttle. Statistical analyses developed for the system include: comparison of pre-launch wind component profiles to wind component extremes at each altitude calculated from launch site historical data; conditional probability ellipses for wind vectors at a future time given the wind vector at an initial time; comparison of observed extreme wind shear and associated wind speed with launch site historical data utilizing the bivariate extreme value (Gumbel) distribution; estimation of extremes of wind speed or wind shear at a future time given the extremes of either variable at an initial time, utilizing the conditional extreme value distribution; power spectrum analysis for tracking wind perturbation energy in sequential pre-launch Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗