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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Determination of the Limiting Magnitude

The limiting magnitude of an optical camera system is an important property to understand since it is used to find the completeness limit of observations. Limiting magnitude depends on the hardware and software of the system, current weather conditions, and the angular speed of the objects observed. If an object exhibits a substantial angular rate during the exposure, its light spreads out over more pixels than the stationary stars. This spreading causes the limiting magnitude to be brighter when compared to the stellar limiting magnitude. The effect, which begins to become important when the object moves a full width at half max during a single exposure or video frame. For targets with high angular speeds or camera systems with narrow field of view or long exposures, this correction can be significant, up to several magnitudes. The stars in an image are often used to measure the limiting magnitude since they are stationary, have known brightness, and are present in large numbers, making the determination of the limiting magnitude fairly simple. In order to transform stellar limiting magnitude to object limiting magnitude, a correction must be applied accounting for the angular velocity. This technique is adopted in meteor and other fast-moving object observations, as the lack of a statistically significant sample of targets makes it virtually impossible to determine the limiting magnitude before the weather conditions change. While the weather is the dominant factor in observing satellites, the limiting magnitude for meteors also changes throughout the night due to the motion of a meteor shower or sporadic source radiant across the sky. This paper presents methods for determining the limiting stellar magnitude and the conversion to the target limiting magnitude.

Kingery, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced climate reproducibility testing with false discovery rate correction

Simulating the Earth's climate is an important and complex problem, thus climate models are similarly complex, comprised of millions of lines of code. In order to appropriately utilize the latest computational and software infrastructure advancements in Earth system models running on modern hybrid computing architectures to improve their performance, precision, accuracy, or all three; it is important to ensure that model simulations are repeatable and robust. This introduces the need for establishing statistical or non-bit-for-bit reproducibility, since bit-for-bit reproducibility may not always be achievable. Here, we propose a short-simulation ensemble-based test for an atmosphere model to evaluate the null hypothesis that modified model results are statistically equivalent to that of the original model. We implement this test in version 2 of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The test evaluates a standard set of output variables across the two simulation ensembles and uses a false discovery rate correction to account for multiple testing. The false positive rates of the test are examined using re-sampling techniques on large simulation ensembles and are found to be lower than the currently implemented bootstrapping-based testing approach in E3SM. We also evaluate the statistical power of the test using perturbed simulation ensemble suites, each with a progressively larger magnitude of change to a tuning parameter. The new test is generally found to exhibit more statistical power than the current approach, being able to detect smaller changes in parameter values with higher confidence.

Kelleher, Michael E. [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS1994

Spherical disharmonics in the Earth sciences and the spatial solution: Ridges, hotspots, slabs, geochemistry and tomography correlations

There is increasing use of statistical correlations between geophysical fields and between geochemical and geophysical fields in attempts to understand how the Earth works. Typically, such correlations have been based on spherical harmonic expansions. The expression of functions on the sphere as spherical harmonic series has many pitfalls, especially if the data are nonuniformly and/or sparsely sampled. Many of the difficulties involved in the use of spherical harmonic expansion techniques can be avoided through the use of spatial domain correlations, but this introduces other complications, such as the choice of a sampling lattice. Additionally, many geophysical and geochemical fields fail to satisfy the assumptions of standard statistical significance tests. This is especially problematic when the data values to be correlated with a geophysical field were collected at sample locations which themselves correlate with that field. This paper examines many correlations which have been claimed in the past between geochemistry and mantle tomography and between hotspot, ridge, and slab locations and tomography using both spherical harmonic coefficient correlations and spatial domain correlations. No conclusively significant correlations are found between isotopic geochemistry and mantle tomography. The Crough and Jurdy (short) hotspot location list shows statistically significant correlation with lowermost mantle tomography for degree 2 of the spherical harmonic expansion, but there are no statistically significant correlations in the spatial case. The Vogt (long) hotspot location list does not correlate with tomography anywhere in the mantle using either technique. Both hotspot lists show a strong correlation between hotspot locations and geoid highs when spatially correlated, but no correlations are revealed by spherical harmonic techniques. Ridge locations do not show any statistically significant correlations with tomography, slab locations, or the geoid; the strongest correlation is with lowermost mantle tomography, which is probably spurious. The most striking correlations are between mantle tomography and post-Pangean subducted slabs. The integrated locations of slabs correlate strongly with fast areas near the transition zone and the core-mantle boundary and with slow regions from 1022-1248 km depth. This seems to be consistent with the 'avalanching' downwellings which have been indicated by models of the mantle which include an endothermic phase transition at the 670-km discontinuity, although this is not a unique interpretation. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that slabs and associated cold downwellings are the dominant feature of mantle convection. Hotspot locations are no better correlated with lower mantle tomography than are ridge locations.

Ray, Terrill W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Incipient fault detection study for advanced spacecraft systems

A feasibility study to investigate the application of vibration monitoring to the rotating machinery of planned NASA advanced spacecraft components is described. Factors investigated include: (1) special problems associated with small, high RPM machines; (2) application across multiple component types; (3) microgravity; (4) multiple fault types; (5) eight different analysis techniques including signature analysis, high frequency demodulation, cepstrum, clustering, amplitude analysis, and pattern recognition are compared; and (6) small sample statistical analysis is used to compare performance by computation of probability of detection and false alarm for an ensemble of repeated baseline and faulted tests. Both detection and classification performance are quantified. Vibration monitoring is shown to be an effective means of detecting the most important problem types for small, high RPM fans and pumps typical of those planned for the advanced spacecraft. A preliminary monitoring system design and implementation plan is presented.

Milner, G. Martin↗
NASA NTRS2004

Performance Evaluation of Fiber Bragg Gratings at Elevated Temperatures

The development of integrated fiber optic sensors for smart propulsion systems demands that the sensors be able to perform in extreme environments. In order to use fiber optic sensors effectively in an extreme environment one must have a thorough understanding of the sensor s limits and how it responds under various environmental conditions. The sensor evaluation currently involves examining the performance of fiber Bragg gratings at elevated temperatures. Fiber Bragg gratings (FBG) are periodic variations of the refractive index of an optical fiber. These periodic variations allow the FBG to act as an embedded optical filter passing the majority of light propagating through a fiber while reflecting back a narrow band of the incident light. The peak reflected wavelength of the FBG is known as the Bragg wavelength. Since the period and width of the refractive index variation in the fiber determines the wavelengths that are transmitted and reflected by the grating, any force acting on the fiber that alters the physical structure of the grating will change what wavelengths are transmitted and what wavelengths are reflected by the grating. Both thermal and mechanical forces acting on the grating will alter its physical characteristics allowing the FBG sensor to detect both temperature variations and physical stresses, strain, placed upon it. This ability to sense multiple physical forces makes the FBG a versatile sensor. This paper reports on test results of the performance of FBGs at elevated temperatures. The gratings looked at thus far have been either embedded in polymer matrix materials or freestanding with the primary focus of this paper being on the freestanding FBGs. Throughout the evaluation process, various parameters of the FBGs performance were monitored and recorded. These parameters include the peak Bragg wavelength, the power of the Bragg wavelength, and total power returned by the FBG. Several test samples were subjected to identical test conditions to allow for statistical analysis of the data. Test procedures, calibrations, and referencing techniques are presented in the paper along with directions for future research.

Juergens, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Biases in Sample Preparation Techniques for Coupled Scanning Electron Microscopy and MAMA PuO 2 Morphological Analysis

In this project, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) sampling method used during the statistical design study (SDS) was investigated to determine if any sampling biases were present in the analyzed data. Using standard particle size distribution powders from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1984 standard reference material) with the origin wet dispersion method, it was determined that a bias to smaller particles was present. This was supported by theoretical calculations using Stokes’ law to determine the settling rate of spherical particles of roughly the same size and mass as those found in the SDS. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that the settling rate for each of the 76 powder sets in the SDS could be unique based on specific particle shape and mass distributions, making a universal correction factor/formula not applicable. Therefore, priority shifted to developing an improved wet dispersion method that significantly reduced the particle settling rate for all particle size and shapes. This was achieved by replacing the original solvent (isopropyl alcohol) with a heavy liquid (lithium heteropolytungstates), which dramatically slowed the settling rate and allowed for the capture of a suitable homogeneous aliquot. SEM imaging and Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution (MAMA) software analysis were conducted on the NIST standard, and the SEM/MAMA data were compared to data captured by a dynamic image analysis particle size analyzer. The resulting data confirmed that the new wet dispersion method does indeed deliver an improved representative aliquot to the SEM stub. For instance, in the NIST certificate, the average particle size is ~17.1 µm ± 2.2 µm with a normal distribution. The initial wet dispersion method resulted in a drastically reduced average particle size of 6.1 µm in addition to a non-representative heavy bi-modal distribution whereas the improved LST wet dispersion method resulting in an average particle size that was much closer to the NIST certificate (12.7 µm) with a similar normal distribution. Although the improved method was still short of the NIST certificate average, atomic force microscopy analysis determined that the resulting ~20-25% reduction in size was due to particles sinking into the carbon sticky tape used for SEM imaging. It is believed that that this bias can be calibrated in a much more predicable manner than the original settling rate bias. In addition, the matching normal distribution curves between the NIST certificate and the heavy liquid method indicate a much-improved representative aliquot has been sampled and imaged. A surrogate CeO 2 powder was used to reflect PuO 2 more accurately and to aid in implementing radiological controls and shielding. The resulting data sets from the SEM/MAMA method and the particle size analyzer give almost identical average particle sizes and particle distribution statistics. Future work will re-analyze several select runs from the SDS to determine if morphological signatures can be found with the improved sampling method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design of partially supervised classifiers for multispectral image data

A partially supervised classification problem is addressed, especially when the class definition and corresponding training samples are provided a priori only for just one particular class. In practical applications of pattern classification techniques, a frequently observed characteristic is the heavy, often nearly impossible requirements on representative prior statistical class characteristics of all classes in a given data set. Considering the effort in both time and man-power required to have a well-defined, exhaustive list of classes with a corresponding representative set of training samples, this 'partially' supervised capability would be very desirable, assuming adequate classifier performance can be obtained. Two different classification algorithms are developed to achieve simplicity in classifier design by reducing the requirement of prior statistical information without sacrificing significant classifying capability. The first one is based on optimal significance testing, where the optimal acceptance probability is estimated directly from the data set. In the second approach, the partially supervised classification is considered as a problem of unsupervised clustering with initially one known cluster or class. A weighted unsupervised clustering procedure is developed to automatically define other classes and estimate their class statistics. The operational simplicity thus realized should make these partially supervised classification schemes very viable tools in pattern classification.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional scaling informed by F -statistic: Visualizing grouped microbiome data with inference

Multidimensional scaling (MDS) is a widely used dimensionality reduction technique in microbial ecology data analysis that captures the multivariate structure of the data while preserving pairwise distances between samples. While improvements in MDS have enhanced the ability to reveal group-specific data patterns, these MDS-based methods require prior assumptions for inference, limiting their application in general microbiome analysis. Here, in this study, we introduce a new MDS-based ordination method, “F-informed MDS,” which configures the data distribution based on the F-statistic, the ratio of dispersion between groups sharing common and different characteristics. Using semisynthetic datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method is robust to hyperparameter selection while maintaining statistical significance throughout the ordination process. Various quality metrics for evaluating dimensionality reduction confirm that F-informed MDS is comparable to state-of-the-art methods in preserving both local and global data structures. Its application to a diatom-associated bacterial community suggests the role of this new method in interpreting the community’s response to the host. Our approach offers a well-founded refinement of MDS that aligns with statistical test results, which can be beneficial for broader multidimensional data analyses in microbiology and ecology. This new visualization tool can be incorporated into standard microbiome data analyses.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Quasar microlensing and dark matter

The amplification of quasar brightness due to gravitational lensing by foreground objects is discussed. It is shown that a recently published sample of X-ray-selected quasars behind foreground galaxies shows a statistically significant brightening compared to a control sample. Correlations with galaxy redshift and impact parameter predicted by microlensing are also demonstrated. A technique is described to measure the mean density of the lenses from a small number of identified cases of microlensing. It is shown that, in this sample, amplification bias is important in determining the mean intensity enhancement and must be included in the density estimate. Assuming that at least two of the four intrinsically brightest quasars behind galaxies are indeed microlensed, the present data yield a formal lower limit on the mean density parameter of lenses Omega(l) greater than 0.25 at 95 percent confidence. These data also imply that a considerable quantity of dark matter exists in macroscopic objects outside the visible parts of galaxies but is still highly correlated with them.

Rix, Hans-Walter↗
NASA NTRS1990

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Dekel, Avishai↗
NASA NTRS2004

Physical Validation of TRMM TMI and PR Monthly Rain Products Over Oklahoma

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides monthly rainfall estimates using data collected by the TRMM satellite. These estimates cover a substantial fraction of the earth's surface. The physical validation of TRMM estimates involves corroborating the accuracy of spaceborne estimates of areal rainfall by inferring errors and biases from ground-based rain estimates. The TRMM error budget consists of two major sources of error: retrieval and sampling. Sampling errors are intrinsic to the process of estimating monthly rainfall and occur because the satellite extrapolates monthly rainfall from a small subset of measurements collected only during satellite overpasses. Retrieval errors, on the other hand, are related to the process of collecting measurements while the satellite is overhead. One of the big challenges confronting the TRMM validation effort is how to best estimate these two main components of the TRMM error budget, which are not easily decoupled. This four-year study computed bulk sampling and retrieval errors for the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) by applying a technique that sub-samples gauge data at TRMM overpass times. Gridded monthly rain estimates are then computed from the monthly bulk statistics of the collected samples, providing a sensor-dependent gauge rain estimate that is assumed to include a TRMM equivalent sampling error. The sub-sampled gauge rain estimates are then used in conjunction with the monthly satellite and gauge (without sub- sampling) estimates to decouple retrieval and sampling errors. The computed mean sampling errors for the TMI and PR were 5.9% and 7.796, respectively, in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The PR year-to-year retrieval biases exceeded corresponding TMI biases, but it was found that these differences were partially due to negative TMI biases during cold months and positive TMI biases during warm months.

Fisher, Brad L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Monte Carlo investigation of thrust imbalance of solid rocket motor pairs

The Monte Carlo method of statistical analysis is used to investigate the theoretical thrust imbalance of pairs of solid rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Sets of the significant variables are selected using a random sampling technique and the imbalance calculated for a large number of motor pairs using a simplified, but comprehensive, model of the internal ballistics. The treatment of burning surface geometry allows for the variations in the ovality and alignment of the motor case and mandrel as well as those arising from differences in the basic size dimensions and propellant properties. The analysis is used to predict the thrust-time characteristics of 130 randomly selected pairs of Titan IIIC SRMs. A statistical comparison of the results with test data for 20 pairs shows the theory underpredicts the standard deviation in maximum thrust imbalance by 20% with variability in burning times matched within 2%. The range in thrust imbalance of Space Shuttle type SRM pairs is also estimated using applicable tolerances and variabilities and a correction factor based on the Titan IIIC analysis.

Sforzini, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

CADIS and FW-CADIS Variance Reduction in Gamma Transport for Predicting Prompt Forensics Signatures

The goal of prompt nuclear forensics is to determine the characteristics of a nuclear detonation based on the signatures available almost immediately after the explosion. An important characteristic is the reaction time history (RTH), a measure of the device’s rate of neutron multiplication. The RTH can be estimated by observation of the gamma radiation emitted from the detonation, which can be detected directly or observed indirectly as Teller light. Gamma transport simulations used to predict these radiation fields are often modeled stochastically using the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code, which can be a computationally demanding task due to the number of particle histories needed to achieve statistical convergence. In an attempt to improve the efficiency of these calculations, we evaluate two variance reduction techniques: Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) and Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint-Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS). These methods use a deterministically calculated adjoint flux to create weight windows and source biasing that guide MCNP sampling. We study the utility of CADIS and FW-CADIS for their use in MCNP gamma transport for nuclear forensics prediction simulations. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that both CADIS and FW-CADIS improve the accuracy for forensics-focused simulations, with CADIS being most beneficial in direct detection and FW-CADIS being ideal for computing a global Teller light source.

CADIS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Data-scientific Noise-removal Method for Efficient Submillimeter Spectroscopy With Single-dish Telescopes

For submillimeter spectroscopy with ground-based single-dish telescopes, removing the noise contribution from the Earth’s atmosphere and the instrument is essential. For this purpose, here we propose a new method based on a data-scientific approach. The key technique is statistical matrix decomposition that automatically separates the signals of astronomical emission lines from the drift noise components in the fast-sampled (1–10 Hz) time-series spectra obtained by a position-switching (PSW) observation. Because the proposed method does not apply subtraction between two sets of noisy data (i.e., on-source and off-source spectra), it improves the observation sensitivity by a factor of √2. It also reduces artificial signals such as baseline ripples on a spectrum, which may also help to improve the effective sensitivity. We demonstrate this improvement by using the spectroscopic data of emission lines toward a high-redshift galaxy observed with a 2 mm receiver on the 50 m Large Millimeter Telescope. Since the proposed method is carried out offline and no additional measurements are required, it offers an instant improvement on the spectra reduced so far with the conventional method. It also enables efficient deep spectroscopy driven by the future 50 m class large submillimeter single-dish telescopes, where fast PSW observations by mechanical antenna or mirror drive are difficult to achieve.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1974

On evaluating compliance with air pollution levels 'not to be exceeded more than once per year'

The point of view taken is that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality Standards (AQS) represent conditions which must be made to exist in the ambient environment. The statistical techniques developed should serve as tools for measuring the closeness to achieving the desired quality of air. It is shown that the sampling frequency recommended by EPA is inadequate to meet these objectives when the standard is expressed as a level not to be exceeded more than once per year and sampling frequency is once every three days or less frequent.

Neustadter, H. E.↗