A SIMPLIFIED STATISTICAL MODEL FOR MISSILE LAUNCHING - 1
Launching pad operations for missiles - statistical probability and prelaunch problems
PRELAUNCH PROBLEM↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “statistical modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Statistical models of the density and wind profiles in the mesosphere based on 208 soundings
Statistical mesosphere temperature, density and wind profiles models based on rocket soundings
Casey, J. F.↗
Statistical model of the stimulated forward Brillouin scattering driven by a randomized laser beam in plasma
The modeling of a spatially incoherent laser beam remains a central problem of the parametric instabilities in the context of inertial confinement fusion. This letter gives a simplified and comprehensive overview of the recent analytical developments regarding the modeling of these laser beams and a comparison with a dedicated experiment. Our model accounts for the first time for the statistical standard deviation of the gain and accurately captures the entanglement between wave mixing processes and the speckle correlations thus resolving the longstanding contradictions between the random phase approximation and the model of independent speckles. It is successfully compared to a recent laser beam spray experiment and the associated paraxial simulations, demonstrating that backscattering predictions require accounting for the beam spray. Furthermore, our framework thus provides a way to evaluate and guide the analysis of parametric instabilities in high laser energy experiments.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Kinetics of State Switching in Quasi-One-Dimensional Nanosystems. Statistical Model of the Influence of Defects
The role of native and radiation-induced defects in the state switching kinetics for one-dimensional systems (nanowires, molecular single-chain magnets, biological macromolecules, and many others) has been studied. An analytical approach to the description of the influence of randomly located defects on the dynamics of new-phase domains is developed using an analogy with stochastic processes in queueing theory. This method makes it possible to calculate threshold phenomena and the dependence of switching fields on material parameters.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON): A statistical model based iterative image reconstruction method to eliminate limited-view artifacts and to mitigate the temporal-average artifacts in time-resolved CT
Purpose: In x-ray computed tomography (CT), a violation of the Tuy data sufficiency condition leads to limited-view artifacts. In some applications, it is desirable to use data corresponding to a narrow temporal window to reconstruct images with reduced temporal-average artifacts. However, the need to reduce temporal-average artifacts in practice may result in a violation of the Tuy condition and thus undesirable limited-view artifacts. In this paper, the authors present a new iterative reconstruction method, synchronized multiartifact reduction with tomographic reconstruction (SMART-RECON), to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired within an ultranarrow temporal window that severely violates the Tuy condition. Methods: In time-resolved contrast enhanced CT acquisitions, image contrast dynamically changes during data acquisition. Each image reconstructed from data acquired in a given temporal window represents one time frame and can be denoted as an image vector. Conventionally, each individual time frame is reconstructed independently. In this paper, all image frames are grouped into a spatial–temporal image matrix and are reconstructed together. Rather than the spatial and/or temporal smoothing regularizers commonly used in iterative image reconstruction, the nuclear norm of the spatial–temporal image matrix is used in SMART-RECON to regularize the reconstruction of all image time frames. This regularizer exploits the low-dimensional structure of the spatial–temporal image matrix to mitigate limited-view artifacts when an ultranarrow temporal window is desired in some applications to reduce temporal-average artifacts. Both numerical simulations in two dimensional image slices with known ground truth and in vivo human subject data acquired in a contrast enhanced cone beam CT exam have been used to validate the proposed SMART-RECON algorithm and to demonstrate the initial performance of the algorithm. Reconstruction errors and temporal fidelity of the reconstructed images were quantified using the relative root mean square error (rRMSE) and the universal quality index (UQI) in numerical simulations. The performance of the SMART-RECON algorithm was compared with that of the prior image constrained compressed sensing (PICCS) reconstruction quantitatively in simulations and qualitatively in human subject exam. Results: In numerical simulations, the 240{sup ∘} short scan angular span was divided into four consecutive 60{sup ∘} angular subsectors. SMART-RECON enables four high temporal fidelity images without limited-view artifacts. The average rRMSE is 16% and UQIs are 0.96 and 0.95 for the two local regions of interest, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average rRMSE and UQIs are 25%, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively, for the PICCS reconstruction. Note that only one filtered backprojection image can be reconstructed from the same data set with an average rRMSE and UQIs are 45%, 0.71, and 0.79, respectively, to benchmark reconstruction accuracies. For in vivo contrast enhanced cone beam CT data acquired from a short scan angular span of 200{sup ∘}, three 66{sup ∘} angular subsectors were used in SMART-RECON. The results demonstrated clear contrast difference in three SMART-RECON reconstructed image volumes without limited-view artifacts. In contrast, for the same angular sectors, PICCS cannot reconstruct images without limited-view artifacts and with clear contrast difference in three reconstructed image volumes. Conclusions: In time-resolved CT, the proposed SMART-RECON method provides a new method to eliminate limited-view artifacts using data acquired in an ultranarrow temporal window, which corresponds to approximately 60{sup ∘} angular subsectors.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation
SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data
Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.
NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
Physical and statistical modeling of Saturn's troposphere
We analyze the 5.2-pm spectra of Saturn by utilizing two independent methods: (a) physical models based on the relevant atmospheric parameters and (b) statistical analysis, based on principal components analysis (PCA), to determine the influence of the variation of phosphine and the opacity of clouds deep within Saturn's atmosphere to understand the dynamics in its atmosphere.
Saturn↗
Accurate spatiotemporal predictions of daily stream temperature from statistical models accounting for interactions between climate and landscape
Spatial and temporal patterns in stream temperature are primary factors determining species composition, diversity and productivity in stream ecosystems. The availability of spatially and temporally continuous estimates of stream temperature would improve the ability of biologists to fully explore the effects of stream temperature on biota. Most statistical stream temperature modeling techniques are limited in their ability to account for the influence of variables changing across spatial and temporal gradients. We identified and described important interactions between climate and spatial variables that approximate mechanistic controls on spatiotemporal patterns in stream temperature. With identified relationships we formed models to generate reach-scale basin-wide spatially and temporally continuous predictions of daily mean stream temperature in four Columbia River tributaries watersheds of the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models were validated with a testing dataset composed of completely distinct sites and measurements from different years. While some patterns in residuals remained, testing dataset predictions of selected models demonstrated high accuracy and precision (averaged RMSE for each watershed ranged from 0.85–1.54 °C) and was only 17% higher on average than training dataset prediction error. Aggregating daily predictions to monthly predictions of mean stream temperature reduced prediction error by an average of 23%. The accuracy of predictions was largely consistent across diverse climate years, demonstrating the ability of the models to capture the influences of interannual climatic variability and extend predictions to timeframes with limited temperature logger data. Results suggest that the inclusion of a range of interactions between spatial and climatic variables can approximate dynamic mechanistic controls on stream temperatures.
Siegel, Jared E.↗
The beta distribution: A statistical model for world cloud cover
Much work has been performed in developing empirical global cloud cover models. This investigation was made to determine an underlying theoretical statistical distribution to represent worldwide cloud cover. The beta distribution with probability density function is given to represent the variability of this random variable. It is shown that the beta distribution possesses the versatile statistical characteristics necessary to assume the wide variety of shapes exhibited by cloud cover. A total of 160 representative empirical cloud cover distributions were investigated and the conclusion was reached that this study provides sufficient statical evidence to accept the beta probability distribution as the underlying model for world cloud cover.
Falls, L. W.↗
A two-temperature statistical model for particle production at high energies.
Particle momentum distributions derived from relativistic quantum statistical mechanics
MOMENT DISTRIBUTION↗
The statistical modeling of multicomponent-fuel drop evaporation for fuels containing a multitude of species
A statistical formulation is described portraying the composition in an evaporating multi-component-fuel liquid drop and in the gas phase surrounding it.
multi-component drop modeling↗
Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California
Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An efficient computational approach to model statistical correlations in photon counting x-ray detectors
Purpose: To introduce and evaluate an increment matrix approach (IMA) describing the signal statistics of energy-selective photon counting detectors including spatial–spectral correlations between energy bins of neighboring detector pixels. The importance of the occurring correlations for image-based material decomposition is studied. Methods: An IMA describing the counter increase patterns in a photon counting detector is proposed. This IMA has the potential to decrease the number of required random numbers compared to Monte Carlo simulations by pursuing an approach based on convolutions. To validate and demonstrate the IMA, an approximate semirealistic detector model is provided, simulating a photon counting detector in a simplified manner, e.g., by neglecting count rate-dependent effects. In this way, the spatial–spectral correlations on the detector level are obtained and fed into the IMA. The importance of these correlations in reconstructed energy bin images and the corresponding detector performance in image-based material decomposition is evaluated using a statistically optimal decomposition algorithm. Results: The results of IMA together with the semirealistic detector model were compared to other models and measurements using the spectral response and the energy bin sensitivity, finding a good agreement. Correlations between the different reconstructed energy bin images could be observed, and turned out to be of weak nature. These correlations were found to be not relevant in image-based material decomposition. An even simpler simulation procedure based on the energy bin sensitivity was tested instead and yielded similar results for the image-based material decomposition task, as long as the fact that one incident photon can increase multiple counters across neighboring detector pixels is taken into account. Conclusions: The IMA is computationally efficient as it required about 10{sup 2} random numbers per ray incident on a detector pixel instead of an estimated 10{sup 8} random numbers per ray as Monte Carlo approaches would need. The spatial–spectral correlations as described by IMA are not important for the studied image-based material decomposition task. Respecting the absolute photon counts and thus the multiple counter increases by a single x-ray photon, the same material decomposition performance could be obtained with a simpler detector description using the energy bin sensitivity.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
A robust statistical model for the evaporation of multicomponent-fuel drops containing a multitude of chemical species
A statistical formulation is developed describing the composition in an evaporating multicomponent-fuel liquid drop and in the gas phase surrounding it.
Continuous thermo-dynamics CT↗
Statistical model for asperity-contact time fraction in elastohydrodynamic lubrication
Relations for the asperity contact time fraction during elastohydrodynamic (EHD) lubrication of a typical ball bearing are presented. The analysis is based on a two-dimensional random surface model, and actual profile traces of the bearing surfaces were used as statistical sample records. The results of the analysis show that transition from 90 percent contact to 1 percent contact occurs within a dimensionless film thickness range of approximately 4 to 5. This thickness ratio is several times larger than reported in the literature where one-dimensional random surface models were used.
Sidik, S. M.↗
A statistical model for the evaporation of real-fuel drops for use in many-drop simulations
A statistical formulation is described protraying the composition in an evaporating multicomponent-fuel liquid drop and in the gas phase surrounding it.
real-fuels↗
Statistical Model Selection for TID Hardness Assurance
Radiation Hardness Assurance (RHA) methodologies against Total Ionizing Dose (TID) degradation impose rigorous statistical treatments for data from a part's Radiation Lot Acceptance Test (RLAT) and/or its historical performance. However, no similar methods exist for using "similarity" data - that is, data for similar parts fabricated in the same process as the part under qualification. This is despite the greater difficulty and potential risk in interpreting of similarity data. In this work, we develop methods to disentangle part-to-part, lot-to-lot and part-type-to-part-type variation. The methods we develop apply not just for qualification decisions, but also for quality control and detection of process changes and other "out-of-family" behavior. We begin by discussing the data used in ·the study and the challenges of developing a statistic providing a meaningful measure of degradation across multiple part types, each with its own performance specifications. We then develop analysis techniques and apply them to the different data sets.
Ladbury, R.↗