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Results for “statistical change detection”

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Gene expression of functionally-related genes coevolves across fungal species: detecting coevolution of gene expression using phylogenetic comparative methods

Researchers often measure changes in gene expression across conditions to better understand the shared functional roles and regulatory mechanisms of different genes. Analogous to this is comparing gene expression across species, which can improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes shaping the evolution of both individual genes and functional pathways. One area of interest is determining genes showing signals of coevolution, which can also indicate potential functional similarity, analogous to co-expression analysis often performed across conditions for a single species. However, as with any trait, comparing gene expression across species can be confounded by the non-independence of species due to shared ancestry, making standard hypothesis testing inappropriate. We compared RNA-Seq data across 18 fungal species using a multivariate Brownian Motion phylogenetic comparative method (PCM), which allowed us to quantify coevolution between protein pairs while directly accounting for the shared ancestry of the species. Our work indicates proteins which physically-interact show stronger signals of coevolution than randomly-generated pairs. Interactions with stronger empirical and computational evidence also showing stronger signals of coevolution. We examined the effects of number of protein interactions and gene expression levels on coevolution, finding both factors are overall poor predictors of the strength of coevolution between a protein pair. Simulations further demonstrate the potential issues of analyzing gene expression coevolution without accounting for shared ancestry in a standard hypothesis testing framework. Furthermore, our simulations indicate the use of a randomly-generated null distribution as a means of determining statistical significance for detecting coevolving genes with phylogenetically-uncorrected correlations, as has previously been done, is less accurate than PCMs, although is a significant improvement over standard hypothesis testing. These methods are further improved by using a phylogenetically-corrected correlation metric. Our work highlights potential benefits of using PCMs to detect gene expression coevolution from high-throughput omics scale data. This framework can be built upon to investigate other evolutionary hypotheses, such as changes in transcription regulatory mechanisms across species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance losses routines for the detection and classification of incidents in large‐scale photovoltaic systems

Abstract Fault detection and classification in photovoltaic (PV) systems through real‐time monitoring is a fundamental task that ensures quality of operation and significantly improves the performance and reliability of operating systems. Different statistical and comparative approaches have already been proposed in the literature for fault detection; however, accurate classification of fault and loss incidents based on PV performance time series remains a key challenge. Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance loss routines were developed in this work for detecting PV underperformance and accurately identifying the different fault types and loss mechanisms. The proposed routines focus mainly on the differentiation of failures (e.g., inverter faults) from irreversible (e.g., degradation) and reversible (e.g., snow and soiling) performance loss factors based on statistical analysis. The proposed routines were benchmarked using historical inverter data obtained from a 1.8 MWp PV power plant. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the routines for detecting failures and loss mechanisms and the capability of the pipeline for distinguishing underperformance issues using anomaly detection and change‐point (CP) models. Finally, a CP model was used to extract significant changes in time series data, to detect soiling and cleaning events and to estimate both the performance loss and degradation rates of fielded PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative three-dimensional imaging of chemical short-range order via machine learning enhanced atom probe tomography

Abstract Chemical short-range order (CSRO) refers to atoms of specific elements self-organising within a disordered crystalline matrix to form particular atomic neighbourhoods. CSRO is typically characterized indirectly, using volume-averaged or through projection microscopy techniques that fail to capture the three-dimensional atomistic architectures. Here, we present a machine-learning enhanced approach to break the inherent resolution limits of atom probe tomography enabling three-dimensional imaging of multiple CSROs. We showcase our approach by addressing a long-standing question encountered in body-centred-cubic Fe-Al alloys that see anomalous property changes upon heat treatment. We use it to evidence non-statistical B 2 -CSRO instead of the generally-expected D0 3 -CSRO. We introduce quantitative correlations among annealing temperature, CSRO, and nano-hardness and electrical resistivity. Our approach is further validated on modified D0 3 -CSRO detected in Fe-Ga. The proposed strategy can be generally employed to investigate short/medium/long-range ordering phenomena in different materials and help design future high-performance materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

F-8C adaptive flight control extensions

An adaptive concept which combines gain-scheduled control laws with explicit maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) identification to provide the scheduling values is described. The MLE algorithm was improved by incorporating attitude data, estimating gust statistics for setting filter gains, and improving parameter tracking during changing flight conditions. A lateral MLE algorithm was designed to improve true air speed and angle of attack estimates during lateral maneuvers. Relationships between the pitch axis sensors inherent in the MLE design were examined and used for sensor failure detection. Design details and simulation performance are presented for each of the three areas investigated.

Stein, G.↗

Further results of natural laminar flow flight test experiments

Flight test experiments were conducted to measure the extent and nature of natural laminar flow on a smoothed test region of a swept-wing business jet wing. Surface hot film anemometry and sublimating chemicals were used for transition detection. Surface pressure distributions were measured using pressure belts. Engine noise was monitored by a microphone attached to the wing surface to study possible acoustic effects on stability of the laminar boundary layer. Side-slip conditions were flown to simulate changes in effective wing sweep. Flight instrumentation and ground data analysis techniques and a method for measuring intermittency of turbulence are described. Correlation was obtained between the hot film gage signals and chemicals for transition detection. Cross-flow vortices were observed for some flight conditions. Results of spectral and statistical analysis of the hot film signals for various flight test conditions are presented.

Wentz, W. H., Jr.↗

Comparison of Mean Climate Trends in the Northern Hemisphere Between N.C.E.P. and Two Atmosphere-Ocean Model Forced Runs

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure, surface temperature, 850, 500 and 200 mb geopotential heights and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared to those obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction observations. A spatial correlation analysis and mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere (NH) because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the observed regional and NH climate trends makes it reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Lucarini, Valerio↗

Comparison of Force and Moment Coefficients for the Same Test Article in Multiple Wind Tunnels

This paper compares the results of force and moment measurements made on the same test article and with the same balance in three transonic wind tunnels. Comparisons are made for the same combination of Reynolds number, Mach number, sideslip angle, control surface configuration, and angle of attack range. Between-tunnel force and moment differences are quantified. An analysis of variance was performed at four unique sites in the design space to assess the statistical significance of between-tunnel variation and any interaction with angle of attack. Tunnel to tunnel differences too large to attribute to random error were detected were observed for all forces and moments. In some cases these differences were independent of angle of attack and in other cases they changed with angle of attack.

Deloach, Richard↗

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗

The spectrum of galactic electrons with energies between 10 and 900 GeV

A cosmic-ray electron detector has been exposed during 1970 in three high-altitude balloon flights from Palestine, Texas. The data analysis is based on results from accelerator calibrations with electrons and pions at SLAC. Discrimination against a contamination of the electron data due to interacting protons has been achieved by statistical methods. The resulting differential energy spectrum of cosmic-ray electrons can be well described by a single power law with spectral index 2.66 plus or minus 0.1 up to energies around 250 GeV. Within the experimental uncertainty, no change in this spectral slope up to almost 1000 GeV can be detected. Some implications of these results are discussed.

Mueller, D.↗

Variable X-ray spectra of BL Lac objects: HEAO-1 observations of PKS 0548-322 and 2A 1219+305

X-ray spectra for the BL Lac objects PKS 0548-322 and 2A 1219+305 measured with the HEAO-1 A2 detectors during pointing maneuvers on September 30, 1978 and May 31, 1978 respectively are presented. Both fit single power law components with low energy absorption. For 2A 1219+305, a thermal bremsstrahlung form gives an unacceptable fit. From a comparison with other statistically poorer observations taken at 6 month intervals while the satellite was in its normal scanning mode, it is found that the sources exhibit spectral variability. A summary of measurements of the 5 BL Lac objects detected with the A2 experiment is presented and it is concluded that X-ray spectral changes in this class of source are common. Their general X-ray spectral characteristics distinguish BL Lac objects from other classes of X-ray emitting active galactic nuclei. Analysis of their total spectra indicates that most of the energy is emitted in the 5 to 100 eV band.

Worrall, D. M.↗

Comparison of Approach-to-Critical Results in Current and Pulse Mode for Systems with High Starter Neutron Rates

Reactors and critical assemblies use a variety of detection systems to monitor the neutron population. The count rate is proportional to the neutron flux present at the location of the detector. When such systems are placed external to an assembly, it is often assumed that the relative leakage multiplication will be proportional to the detector count rate (assuming that the source term, system geometry, and detector placement have not changed). Such systems are often used in an approach-to-critical during reactor startup to ensure that the critical configuration is well predicted. Various types of detectors have been used during an approach-to-critical. These include 3 He, BF 3 , ion chambers, fission chambers, and fission foils. Any of these types of systems (or others) should work well when adequate counting statistics are available. These detector systems can be operated in either pulse or current mode. The National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) has two detection systems that are commonly used in critical assembly operations. The start-up (referred to as "SU" in this work) system is made up of 3 He proportional counters in pulse mode and the linear counter system (referred to as "LC" in this work) consists of compensated ion-chambers in current mode. Typically the SU system is used for approach-to-critical operations and the LC system is only used at/above delayed critical ( k eff = 1). This work investigates the use of the LC system for an approach-to-critical. It has been long hypothesized that such an approach would be feasible for systems with high starter neutron rates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An algorithm for detecting and quantifying disturbance and recovery in high-frequency time series

Determining when a disturbance has occurred, its severity, and when the system recovered, is important to numerous questions in the aquatic sciences. This problem can be conceptualized as the timing and degree of perturbation from a typical state, and when the system returns to that typical state. We present an algorithm for detecting disturbance and recovery designed for high-frequency time series, e.g., data produced by automated sampling devices in instrumented buoys and flux towers. The algorithm quantifies differences in the empirical cumulative distribution functions of moving windows over reference and evaluation periods, and is sensitive to changes in the mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. Tests on simulated data show it accurately identifies disturbance and recovery. Three case studies illustrate the application of our algorithm in different empirical settings. A case study on dissolved oxygen in a Florida, USA estuary following a hurricane identified the disturbance and recovery 73 d later. A case study on air temperature and net ecosystem exchange in the Florida everglades identified cold snaps coinciding with periods of reduced carbon uptake. A case study on rotifer abundance following zebra mussel invasion in the Hudson River, NY showed rotifer collapse following invasion and recovery over a decade later. Methods such as ours can improve understanding response to disturbance and facilitate comparative and synthetic study of disturbance impacts across ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Human-caused long-term changes in global aridity

Widespread aridification of the land surface causes substantial environmental challenges and is generally well documented. However, the mechanisms underlying increased aridity remain relatively underexplored. Here, we investigated the anthropogenic and natural factors affecting long-term global aridity changes using multisource observation-based aridity index, factorial simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and rigorous detection and attribution (D&A) methods. Our study found that anthropogenic forcings, mainly rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and aerosols, caused the increased aridification of the globe and each hemisphere with high statistical confidence for 1965–2014; the GHGE contributed to drying trends, whereas the aerosol emissions led to wetting tendencies; moreover, the bias-corrected CMIP6 future aridity index based on the scaling factors from optimal D&A demonstrated greater aridification than the original simulations. These findings highlight the dominant role of human effects on increasing aridification at broad spatial scales, implying future reductions in aridity will rely primarily on the GHGE mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WASP-117 b: An Eccentric Hot Saturn as a Future Complex Chemistry Laboratory

We present spectral analysis of the transiting Saturn-mass planet WASP-117 b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3. We reduce and fit the extracted spectrum from the raw transmission data using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauREx 3.0. We detect water vapor alongside a layer of fully opaque cloud, retrieving a terminator temperature of T{sub term}=833{sub -156}{sup +260} K. In order to quantify the statistical significance of this detection, we employ the atmospheric detectability index (ADI), deriving a value of ADI = 2.30, which provides positive but not strong evidence against the flat-line model. Due to the eccentric orbit of WASP-117 b, it is likely that chemical and mixing timescales oscillate throughout orbit due to the changing temperature, possibly allowing warmer chemistry to remain visible as the planet begins transit, despite the proximity of its point of ingress to apastron. We present simulated spectra of the planet as would be observed by the future space missions such as the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey and the James Webb Space Telescope and show that, despite not being able to probe such chemistry with current HST data, these observatories should make it possible in the not too distant future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems

A number of methods for the detection of abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems were surveyed. The class of linear systems were emphasized, but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.

Willsky, A. S.↗

A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems

A number of methods for detecting abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems are surveyed. The class of linear systems is concentrated on but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.

Willsky, A. S.↗

Applications of satellite image processing to the analysis of Amazonian cultural ecology

This paper examines the application of satellite image processing towards identifying and comparing resource exploitation among indigenous Amazonian peoples. The use of statistical and heuristic procedures for developing land cover/land use classifications from Thematic Mapper satellite imagery will be discussed along with actual results from studies of relatively small (100 - 200 people) settlements. Preliminary research indicates that analysis of satellite imagery holds great potential for measuring agricultural intensification, comparing rates of tropical deforestation, and detecting changes in resource utilization patterns over time.

Behrens, Clifford A.↗