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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Geospatial Cluster Analysis of the State, Duration and Severity of Drought Over Paraíba State, Northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998–2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

SPI↗
NASA NTRS1987

Submm observations of IRAS galaxies

Twenty-six galaxies from the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) point source catalog were observed at 250 and 1300 microns. The Far Infrared (FIR) spectra from 25 to 1300 microns are interpreted in terms of two dust components of about 16 and 53 K. Flux densities at 1300 microns are used to estimate the total gas mass M sub g. The warm dust luminosity L sup W is considered to be proportional to M sub g sup 0.9 in the mass range 3 x 10 to the 8th is equal to or less than M sub g/solar mass is equal to or less than 10 to the 12th power. The efficiency of star formation seems to be four times higher in barred and peculiar galaxies than in Sc types.

Chini, R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Magnetostrophic balance in planetary dynamos - Predictions for Neptune's magnetosphere

With the purpose of estimating Neptune's magnetic field and its implications for nonthermal Neptune radio emissions, a new scaling law for planetary magnetic fields was developed in terms of externally observable parameters (the planet's mean density, radius, mass, rotation rate, and internal heat source luminosity). From a comparison of theory and observations by Voyager it was concluded that planetary dynamos are two-state systems with either zero intrinsic magnetic field (for planets with low internal heat source) or (for planets with the internal heat source sufficiently strong to drive convection) a magnetic field near the upper bound determined from magnetostrophic balance. It is noted that mass loading of the Neptune magnetosphere by Triton may play an important role in the generation of nonthermal radio emissions.

Curtis, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Results of long-term synoptic monitoring of Jupiter's decametric radiation

Results of the analysis of the large, homogeneous set of measurements of Jupiter's emission at 16.7 and 22.2 MHz for the apparitions during the period 1966-1974 were presented. An update of the radio rotation period determination which includes provision for beaming effects due to variations in the Jovicentric declination of the earth was presented. Some estimates of the magnitude of possible long-term variations in the rotation period were also discussed. The data clearly shows the Io-independent emission features associated with the System III central meridian longitudes of all three major Io-related source regions. There is also some evidence for heretofore unrecognized Io-related emission features which are apparently independent of the central meridian longitude. The possibility of three kinds of emission are suggested: (1) Io-stimulated, sharply beamed emission, (2) Io-independent, sharply beamed emission, and (3) Io-stimulated, broadly beamed emission.

Alexander, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Nutrients in waters on the inner shelf between Cape Charles and Cape Hatteras

The distribution of nutrients in the shelf waters of the southern tip of the Middle Atlantic Bight was investigated. It is concluded that the outflow of freshwater from the Chesapeake Bay is a potential source of nutrients to the adjacent shelf waters. However, a quantitative estimation of its importance cannot yet be made because (1) there are other sources of nutrients to the study area and these sources cannot yet be quantified and (2) the concentrations of nutrients in the outflow from Chesapeake Bay exhibit significant short-term and long-term temporal variabilities.

Wong, G. T. F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Integration of Satellite-Derived Cloud Phase, Cloud Top Height, and Liquid Water Path into an Operational Aircraft Icing Nowcasting System

Operational products used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to alert pilots of hazardous icing provide nowcast and short-term forecast estimates of the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets. The Current Icing Product (CIP) system employs basic satellite-derived information, including a cloud mask and cloud top temperature estimates, together with multiple other data sources to produce a gridded, three-dimensional, hourly depiction of icing probability and severity. Advanced satellite-derived cloud products developed at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) provide a more detailed description of cloud properties (primarily at cloud top) compared to the basic satellite-derived information used currently in CIP. Cloud hydrometeor phase, liquid water path, cloud effective temperature, and cloud top height as estimated by the LaRC algorithms are into the CIP fuzzy logic scheme and a confidence value is determined. Examples of CIP products before and after the integration of the LaRC satellite-derived products will be presented at the conference.

Haggerty, Julie↗
NASA NTRS1976

Infrared upconversion for astronomical applications

The performance of an upconversion system is examined for observation of astronomical sources in the low to middle IR spectral range. Theoretical values for the performance parameters of an upconversion system for astronomical observations are evaluated in terms of the conversion efficiencies, spectral resolution, field of view minimum detectable source brightness, and source flux. Experimental results of blackbody measurements and molecular absorption-spectrum measurements using a lithium niobate upconverter with an argon-ion laser as the pump are presented. Estimates are given of the expected optimum sensitivity of an upconversion device that may be built with presently available components.

Abbas, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Constructing the 'Best' Reliability Data for the Job - Developing Generic Reliability Data from Alternative Sources Early in a Product's Development Phase

Reliability practitioners advocate getting reliability involved early in a product development process. However, when assigned to estimate or assess the (potential) reliability of a product or system early in the design and development phase, they are faced with lack of reasonable models or methods for useful reliability estimation. Developing specific data is costly and time consuming. Instead, analysts rely on available data to assess reliability. Finding data relevant to the specific use and environment for any project is difficult, if not impossible. Instead, analysts attempt to develop the "best" or composite analog data to support the assessments. Industries, consortia and vendors across many areas have spent decades collecting, analyzing and tabulating fielded item and component reliability performance in terms of observed failures and operational use. This data resource provides a huge compendium of information for potential use, but can also be compartmented by industry, difficult to find out about, access, or manipulate. One method used incorporates processes for reviewing these existing data sources and identifying the available information based on similar equipment, then using that generic data to derive an analog composite. Dissimilarities in equipment descriptions, environment of intended use, quality and even failure modes impact the "best" data incorporated in an analog composite. Once developed, this composite analog data provides a "better" representation of the reliability of the equipment or component. It can be used to support early risk or reliability trade studies, or analytical models to establish the predicted reliability data points. It also establishes a baseline prior that may updated based on test data or observed operational constraints and failures, i.e., using Bayesian techniques. This tutorial presents a descriptive compilation of historical data sources across numerous industries and disciplines, along with examples of contents and data characteristics. It then presents methods for combining failure information from different sources and mathematical use of this data in early reliability estimation and analyses.

Kleinhammer, Roger K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Estimation of Daily PM(sub 10) Concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) Using Finely Resolved Satellite Data, Land Use Variables and Meteorology

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particulate Matter/analysis↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations concerning the generation and propagation of Type III solar bursts

A number of Type III bursts were observed during the Helios missions in which the burst exciter passed over the spacecraft, as evidenced by strong electric field fluctuations near the plasma frequency. Six of these were suitable for detailed study. Of the six events, one was ambiguous, one showed what is interpreted as a switchover from harmonic to fundamental, and the rest all generated fundamental at onset. This would be expected if both fundamental and harmonic are generated, as, at a fixed frequency, the fundamental will be generated earlier. For the event which seems to show both fundamental and harmonic emission, the frequency ratio is not exactly 2. This is explained in terms of a time delay of the fundamental, due to scattering and diffusion in the source region. A time delay of the order of 600 seconds at 1 AU and 20 kHz, and inversely proportional to frequency, is required to explain the observations. Crude estimates show that delay times at least this long may be attributed to trapping and scattering.

Kellogg, P. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗
NASA NTRS2022

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption -Part 2: Particle-phase dispersion and concurrent wildfire smoke emissions

Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The arrival of these aerosol layers in late June caused some concern within the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations the volcanic plume from the 21 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke was not expected over the UK until early July. Using dispersion simulations from the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), and supporting evidence from satellite and in situ aircraft observations, we show that the early arrival of the stratospheric layers was not due to aerosols from the explosive eruption of the Raikoke volcano but due to biomass burning smoke aerosols associated with intense forest fires in Alberta, Canada, that occurred 4 d prior to the Raikoke eruption. We use the observations and model simulations to describe the dispersion of both the volcanic and forest fire aerosol clouds and estimate that the initial Raikoke ash aerosol cloud contained around 15 Tg of volcanic ash and that the forest fires produced around 0.2 Tg of biomass burning aerosol. The operational monitoring of volcanic aerosol clouds is a vital capability in terms of aviation safety and the synergy of NAME dispersion simulations, and lidar data with depolarising capabilities allowed scientists at the Met Office to interpret the various aerosol layers over the UK and attribute the material to their sources. The use of NAME allowed the identification of the observed stratospheric layers that reached the UK on 27 June as biomass burning aerosol, characterised by a particle linear depolarisation ratio of 9 %, whereas with the lidar alone the latter could have been identified as the early arrival of a volcanic ash–sulfate mixed aerosol cloud. In the case under study, given the low concentration estimates, the exact identification of the aerosol layers would have made little substantive difference to the decision-making process within the London VAAC. However, our work shows how the use of dispersion modelling together with multiple observation sources enabled us to create a more complete description of atmospheric aerosol loading.

Martin J Osborne↗
NASA NTRS1982

PKS 2155-304 - Relativistically beamed synchrotron radiation from a BL Lacertae object

The previously reported variability by a factor of two in less than a day is confirmed for the newly discovered BL Lac object PKS 2155-304, by means of the HEAO 1 A-2 experiment's medium- and high-energy detectors. An interpretation of the overall spectrum from radio through X-rays in terms of a synchrotron self-Compton model yields a good description of the data if relativistic beaming is allowed for. The presence of jets is inferred without their direct observation through consideration of the spectrum, combined with an estimate of the size of the source.

Urry, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗
NASA NTRS1995

Investigation of Convection and Pressure Treatment with Splitting Techniques

Treatment of convective and pressure fluxes in the Euler and Navier-Stokes equations using splitting formulas for convective velocity and pressure is investigated. Two schemes - controlled variation scheme (CVS) and advection upstream splitting method (AUSM) - are explored for their accuracy in resolving sharp gradients in flows involving moving or reflecting shock waves as well as a one-dimensional combusting flow with a strong heat release source term. For two-dimensional compressible flow computations, these two schemes are implemented in one of the pressure-based algorithms, whose very basis is the separate treatment of convective and pressure fluxes. For the convective fluxes in the momentum equations as well as the estimation of mass fluxes in the pressure correction equation (which is derived from the momentum and continuity equations) of the present algorithm, both first- and second-order (with minmod limiter) flux estimations are employed. Some issues resulting from the conventional use in pressure-based methods of a staggered grid, for the location of velocity components and pressure, are also addressed. Using the second-order fluxes, both CVS and AUSM type schemes exhibit sharp resolution. Overall, the combination of upwinding and splitting for the convective and pressure fluxes separately exhibits robust performance for a variety of flows and is particularly amenable for adoption in pressure-based methods.

Thakur, Siddharth↗
NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗
NASA NTRS1991

A new self-calibration method applied to TOMS and SBUV backscattered ultraviolet data to determine long-term global ozone change

The currently archived (1989) total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) total ozone data (version 5) show a global average decrease of about 9.0 percent from November 1978 to November 1988. This large decrease disagrees with an approximate 3.5-percent decrease estimated from the ground-based Dobson network. The primary source of disagreement was found to arise from an overestimate of reflectivity change and its incorrect wavelengths dependence for the diffuse plate used when measuring solar irradiance. Both of these factors have led to an overestimate of the rate of atmospheric ozone depletion by SBUV and TOMS. For total ozone measured by TOMS, a means has been found to use the measured radiance-irradiance ratio from several wavelengths pairs to construct an internally self-consistent calibration. The method uses the wavelength dependence of the sensitivity to calibration errors and the requirement that albedo ratios for each wavelength pair yield the same total ozone amounts. Smaller errors in determining spacecraft attitude, synchronization problems with the photon counting electronics, and sea-glint contamination of boundary reflectivity data have been corrected or minimized. New climatological low-ozone profiles have been incorporated into the TOMS algorithm that are appropriate for Antarctic ozone hole conditions and other low ozone cases. The combined corrections have led to a new determination of the global average total ozone trend (version 6) as a 2.9 + or - 1.3 percent decrease over 11 years (October 1978 to November 1989).

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Corotation lag of Saturn's magnetosphere - Global ionospheric conductivities revisited

In view of the recent publication of Eviatar and Richardson (1986), who have calculated the Pedersen conductance of Saturn's ionosphere to be much smaller than previous estimates, the Pedersen conductance is recalculated using the same neutral atmosphere model as these authors. The results confirm the earlier estimates that the ionospheric Pedersen conductance of Saturn's ionosphere ranges from 0.3 to 17 mho near the terminator as a function of latitude. The source of discrepancy appears to be the inclusion by Eviatar and Richardson of ion density into the ion-neutral collision frequency term, which is incorrect. Contrary to the conclusion of Eviatar and Richardson, Saturn's ionospheric Pedersen conductance is high enough to impose nearly perfect corotation between the ionosphere and the magnetosphere.

Cheng, Andrew F.↗