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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗
NASA NTRS2017

Observations, Modeling, and Predictions of Solar Activity From the Deep Interior to the Corona

Solar activity is a manifestation of magnetic self-organization processes that involve complex dynamical coupling of various layers of the Sun acting over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Synergy of observational, theoretical, and modeling efforts is key to understanding solar activity variation, dynamics, and evolution and to developing reliable physics-based forecasts of long-term solar cycles and short-term activity manifestations, “seasons of solar activity”, such as periods of enhanced flaring and CME activity. The session welcomes observers, modelers, and theoreticians to share their results and ideas and to discuss current challenges, development of emerging fields (such as data assimilation), and the analysis of historical and modern observational data using theoretical modeling, interpretations, and predictions.

Deep Interior↗
NASA NTRS1993

Development, refinement, and testing of a short term solar flare prediction algorithm

During the period included in this report, the expenditure of time and effort, and progress toward performance of the tasks and accomplishing the goals set forth in the two year research grant proposal, consisted primarily of calibration and analysis of selected data sets. The heliographic limits of 30 degrees from central meridian were continued. As previously reported, all analyses are interactive and are performed by the Principal Investigator. It should also be noted that the analysis time involved by the Principal Investigator during this reporting period was limited, partially due to illness and partially resulting from other uncontrollable factors. The calibration technique (as developed by MSFC solar scientists), incorporates sets of constants which vary according to the wave length of the observation data set. One input constant is then varied interactively to correct for observing conditions, etc., to result in a maximum magnetic field strength (in the calibrated data), based on a separate analysis. There is some insecurity in the methodology and the selection of variables to yield the most self-consistent results for variable maximum field strengths and for variable observing/atmospheric conditions. Several data sets were analyzed using differing constant sets, and separate analyses to differing maximum field strength - toward standardizing methodology and technique for the most self-consistent results for the large number of cases. It may be necessary to recalibrate some of the analyses, but the sc analyses are retained on the optical disks and can still be used with recalibration where necessary. Only the extracted parameters will be changed.

Smith, Jesse B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Prediction of solar induced currents and effects on power transmission systems in central Canada

The auroral-electrojet zone covers three quarters of Manitoba and consequently, solar storms strongly affect transmission lines. Harmonics are generated at transformers due to the saturation of their cores by induced currents, and the level of harmonics produced may cause malfunction of control relays, and yield unacceptable distortions in normal ac waveforms. The expected effects of long ac transmission systems were studied with emphasis on a 500 kv line to be built from Winnipeg to Minneapolis-St. Paul. Spectral analysis of induced current records from Manitoba Hydro's LaVerendrye station and magnetograms from IMS stations in Manitoba were used along with results of Campbell's work on the Alaskan pipeline induction problem (1978) in order to predict periodic and surge currents. It is concluded that the surge currents will produce significant levels of harmonics and corresponding operating problems during magnetic storms.

Goddard, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Circumsolar Diffuse Radiation on the Numerical Computation and Forecasting of DNI

Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) uses the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) to predict solar radiation from the forecasted atmospheric gases, aerosols, and clouds. The Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law utilized by FARMS as well as other radiative transfer models assumes Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a narrow beam only covering the sun disk. This assumption is interpreted differently in solar observations by pyrheliometers where the circumsolar diffuse radiation is accounted. This study precisely computes circumsolar diffuse radiation in all-sky conditions using a radiative transfer model based on a parameterization of precomputed cloud transmittance and reflectance. The model is implemented in WRF-Solar to provide day-ahead DNI forecast in the north America. The computation and forecasting of DNI is compared with the Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law to understand the impact of circumsolar diffuse radiation.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1975

Outdoor flat-plate collector performance prediction from solar simulator test data

Solar collector performance data obtained from tests with a simulator was modified for real-life conditions. The data obtained with the simulator was corrected for the variable conditions of ambient temperature, wind, incident angle, flow rate, etc., that are encountered outdoors. Modification of simulator data was accomplished by combining experiment with theory. The technique was demonstrated by application to a spectrally selective and a nonselective type of collector. This kind of modified simulator collector performance data should be valuable in solar systems analysis and for collector performance ranking based on all-day calculated conditions.

Simon, F. F.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Outdoor flat-plate collector performance prediction from solar simulator test data

This paper describes how collector performance obtained from test data with a simulator can be modified for real-life conditions. The approach taken is to correct the performance data obtained with the simulator for the variable conditions of ambient temperature, wind, incident angle, flow rate, etc., that are encountered in outdoor conditions. Modification of simulator data is accomplished by combining experiment with theory. The technique is demonstrated by application to a spectrally selective and a nonselective type of collector. This kind of modified simulator collector performance data should be valuable in solar systems analyses and for collector performance ranking based on all-day calculated conditions.

Simon, F. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Multi-Satellite Attitude Prediction program/Orbiting Solar Observatory-8 (MSAP/OSO-8) operating guide

The sun's lower corona and chromosphere and their interaction in the X-ray and ultraviolet (UV) spectral regions were investigated to better understand the transport of energy from the photosphere to the corona. The interaction between the solar electromagnetic and particle radiation and the earth's environment was studied and the background component of cosmic X-rays was discussed.

Tate, V. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Basic corrections to predictions of solar cell performance required by nonlinearities

The superposition principle is used to derive the approximation that the current-voltage characteristic of an illuminated solar cell is the dark current-voltage characteristic shifted by the short-circuit photocurrent. The derivation requires the linearity of the boundary value problems that underlie the electrical characteristics. The shifting approximation is invalid if considerable photocurrent and considerable dark current both occur within the junction space-charge region; it is invalid also if sizable series resistance is present or if high-injection concentrations of holes and electrons exist within the quasi-neutral regions.

Lindholm, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Theory of prediction of solar eclipse as observed from a sounding rocket using rocket trajectory and eclipse ephemeris

The present paper deals with the problem of determining various solar eclipse variables as observed from a sounding rocket for various rocket trajectories. By applying the methods described to a set of trajectories, a set of boundary conditions, launch azimuth, quadrant elevation, and launch time may be selected to optimize any aspect of eclipse observation within the constraints imposed by rocket performance.

Mcgarvey, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Hung, Ching-Cheh↗
NASA NTRS2003

MARIE Measurements and Model Predictions of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays at Mars

Recent data from the MARIE (Martian Radiation Environment Experiment) instrument on board the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft currently in Mars orbit are presented. It is shown that the short-term modulations of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are well described by correlating the so lar modulation parameter, <1>, with Earth-based neutron monitor counts using a 85-day time lag and the NASA Models - HZETRN (High Z and Energy Transport) and QMSFRG (Quantum Multiple Scattering theory of nuclear Fragmentation). The dose rates observed by the MARIE instrument are within 10% of the model calculations.

Saganti, P. B.↗