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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Radiation Transport Simulation of the Sulfur Counting System in the Radiation Metrology Laboratory (RML)

At the request of staff members from the Radiation Metrology Laboratory (RML), a series of Monte Carlo radiation transport calculations were performed using two different models of the detector geometry of the RMLs sulfur counting system. The fraction of electrons from each β-decay of 32 P in the sulfur pellet that enter the window of the sulfur counting system was calculated with both MCNP and ITS. In addition, the differential energy distributions of the electrons entering the counting system window were computed. There was significant agreement between the integral and differential quantities calculated by the two transport codes. Summary tables are for the integral efficiency values are found in the body of the report.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for CP violation in t$\overline{\textrm{t}}$H and tH production in multilepton channels in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The charge-parity (CP) structure of the Yukawa interaction between the Higgs (H) boson and the top quark is measured in a data sample enriched in the t$\overline{t}$H and tH associated production, using 138 fb -1 of data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study targets events where the H boson decays via H → WW or H → ττ and the top quarks decay via t → Wb: the W bosons decay either leptonically or hadronically, and final states characterized by the presence of at least two leptons are studied. Machine learning techniques are applied to these final states to enhance the separation of CP -even from CP -odd scenarios. Two-dimensional confidence regions are set on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, which are respectively defined as the CP -even and CP -odd top-Higgs Yukawa coupling modifiers. No significant fractional CP -odd contributions, parameterized by the quantity |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| are observed; the parameter is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.59 with an interval of (0.24, 0.81) at 68% confidence level. The results are combined with previous results covering the H → ZZ and H → γγ decay modes, yielding two- and one-dimensional confidence regions on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, while |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.28 with an interval of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| < 0.55 at 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model CP -even prediction of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transport error estimation using residual Monte Carlo

The residual Monte Carlo (RMC) method is also known in the literature as sequential Monte Carlo and reduced-source Monte Carlo. Given a Monte Carlo method for solving a linear equation and an approximate solution to that system, the residual method enables use of essentially the same Monte Carlo algorithm to directly compute the additive error or “defect” associated with the approximate solution. As the size of the defect decreases relative to the size of the solution, the residual Monte Carlo method becomes increasingly efficient relative to the standard Monte Carlo (SMC) method. Here we present a new RMC algorithm for evaluating the space-angle error in S n radiation transport solutions, and provide computational examples demonstrating that it can be far more efficient than SMC for this purpose. Herein we also describe a particular pitfall that must be avoided if RMC is to be efficient, and explain why the performance of RMC can significantly differ between different transport problems and different quantities of interest for the same problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved manufacturability of vacuum thermoforming molds by segmentation

Thin polymer shell components used in consumer goods, the automotive industry, and marine applications are often produced by thermoforming. Depending on the quantity of parts, molding processes can increase throughput significantly when compared to processes such as milling or additive manufacturing. One disadvantage to mold-based manufacturing methods, however, is that molds must be produced to form the required geometry. Mold production is often complex and requires a large capital investment. For large-scale molding processes, mold production is sometimes complicated by the requirement for large working volume machine tools which are capable of machining the cavities to the appropriate tolerances for the selected molding process. Here, this paper focuses on a segmented design for a large draw ratio (>3:1 molded surface area to sheet surface area) thermoforming mold and a cost-benefit analysis of segmentation versus monolithic design. Discussion of the thermoforming tests are included. The primary goals were to improve manufacturability and reduce the overall cost of the mold.

Manufacturability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Training quantum neural networks using the quantum information bottleneck method

Abstract We provide in this paper a concrete method for training a quantum neural network to maximize the relevant information about a property that is transmitted through the network. This is significant because it gives an operationally well founded quantity to optimize when training autoencoders for problems where the inputs and outputs are fully quantum. We provide a rigorous algorithm for computing the value of the quantum information bottleneck quantity within error ε that requires O ( log 2 ⁡ ( 1 / ϵ ) + 1 / δ 2 ) queries to a purification of the input density operator if its spectrum is supported on { 0 } ⋃ [ δ , 1 − δ ] for δ > 0 and the kernels of the relevant density matrices are disjoint. We further provide algorithms for estimating the derivatives of the QIB function, showing that quantum neural networks can be trained efficiently using the QIB quantity given that the number of gradient steps required is polynomial.

Çatlı, Ahmet Burak (ORCID:0000000152294141)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of boundary conditions in quantum computations of scattering observables

Quantum computing may offer the opportunity to simulate strongly interacting field theories, such as quantum chromodynamics, with physical time evolution. This would give access to Minkowski-signature correlators, in contrast to the Euclidean calculations routinely performed at present. However, as with present-day calculations, quantum computation strategies still require the restriction to a finite system size, including a finite, usually periodic, spatial volume. In this work, we investigate the consequences of this in the extraction of hadronic and Compton-like scattering amplitudes. Using the framework presented in Briceño et al., we estimate the volume effects for various 1+1D Minkowski-signature quantities and show that these can be a significant source of systematic uncertainty, even for volumes that are very large by the standards of present-day Euclidean calculations. We then present an improvement strategy, based in the fact that the finite volume has a reduced symmetry. This implies that kinematic points, which yield the same Lorentz invariants, may still be physically distinct in the periodic system. As we demonstrate, both numerically and analytically, averaging over such sets can significantly suppress the unwanted volume distortions and improve the extraction of the physical scattering amplitudes. As the improvement strategy is based only in kinematics, it can be applied without detailed knowledge of the system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nucleon tensor form factors at large N c

We investigate nucleon tensor form factors in the large- N c limit. In this picture, the nucleon emerges as a state of the N c valence quarks, which were bound by pion mean fields that were created by the presence of the valence quarks self-consistently. We find that the tensor charge ( g T u − d = 0.99 ) and the anomalous tensor magnetic moment ( κ T u + d = 7.61 ) are dominated by valence quarks, while the tensor quadrupole moment ( Q T u − d = − 7.02 ) shows significant sea quark effects. We examine how these quantities vary as the average size of the pion mean field is changed, showing interpolation between nonrelativistic quark and Skyrme limits. We also observe that g T u − d and κ T u + d depend weakly on the pion mass. In contrast, Q T u − d exhibits strong enhancement near the chiral limit. The numerical results are in good agreement with available lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) data and provide predictions for unmeasured quantities. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reaction Rate Distribution Measurements in ZPPR-15

Small metal foils were irradiated in ZPPR-15 to measure distributions for 239 Pu(n,f), 235 U(n,f), 238 U(n,f), 238 U(n,γ), 115 In(n,n’) and 115 In(n,γ) reaction rates in ZPPR-15. The measured data were reported as basic reaction rate distributions for individual foils, cell-averaged reaction rate distributions and spectral indices or reaction rate ratios. All of the measured data were analyzed and tabulated in such a manner that the data can be readily compared with computed values. The published uncertainties for ZPPR-15 the reaction rate measurements include the statistical uncertainties in the measurements, reproducibility uncertainty and small uncertainties related to corrections for items such as foil compositions and post-irradiation decay between reactor shutdown and foil measurement. There are additional uncertainty components related to detector calibration that are not included in the published uncertainties. A full uncertainty analysis was performed for each foil measurement and for quantities derived from the basic foil measurements. The significant uncertainties were quantified, and a total uncertainty was derived for each measured value. The ZPPR-15 experimental records were used to create detailed as-built Monte Carlo models for the foil reaction rate measurements in ZPPR-15 loadings 123, 134 and 203 and for the fission chamber measurements of 237 Np and 242 Pu fission rates in ZPPR-15 loading 141. Because there were many foils distributed in the ZPPR-15 assembly and because an individual foil occupies a negligible volume in the ZPPR-15 assembly, direct Monte Carlo calculations of the measured foil reaction rates would require an impractical computational effort. The as-built Monte Carlo models and related files were prepared for conversion to deterministic models that can be calculated with realistic computational effort.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disruption thermal load mitigation with shattered pellet injection on the Joint European Torus (JET)

Disruption mitigation remains a critical, unresolved challenge for ITER. To aid in addressing this challenge, a shattered pellet injection (SPI) system was installed on JET and experiments conducted at a range of thermal energy fractions and stored energies in excess of 7 MJ. The primary goals of these experiments were to investigate the efficacy of the SPI on JET and the ability of the plasma to assimilate multiple pellets. Single pellet injections produced a saturation in total radiated energy (Wrad) with increasing injected neon content, suggesting total radiation of stored thermal energy. Further increases in injected neon quantities resulted in reduced cooling times and current quench (CQ) durations, indicating higher impurity assimilation. No significant variation in CQ duration or W rad was observed when varying the deuterium content at fixed neon quantities. Additionally, higher assimilation, inferred by shorter CQ durations, was measured when a mechanical punch was used to launch the pellets and this was attributed to a lower pellet velocity leading to higher solid content in the pellet plume and larger fragments penetrating deeper into the plasma. Radiation asymmetries averaged over the cooling time were inferred from Emis3D and ranged from 1.6 to 1.9. Asymmetries averaged over the entire disruption sequence were found to increase at higher thermal energy fractions. The radiated energy fractions decreased with increasing thermal energy fractions but this trend was eliminated when toroidal asymmetries were accounted for with Emis3D. Pure deuterium pellets were able to produce cooling times of up to 75 ms with a gradual loss in thermal stored energy of up to 80%. Experiments with multiple pellet injection indicated W rad can be increased through pellet superposition and density can be increased with an additional D2 injection without a reduction in W rad . KPRAD modelling accurately reproduced the cooling times and the CQ duration at high thermal energies. Assimilation estimates from KPRAD indicated CQ rates scale strongly whilst W rad scales weakly and saturates with assimilated neon content. Comparable W rad can be achieved with lower assimilated neon quantities as longer cooling times are attained. Thus reduced neon content can be preferential in a thermal load mitigation scheme as it may reduce radiation asymmetries and prevent flash melting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Eulerian finite element implementations of a dislocation density-based continuum model

In Eulerian finite element simulations, the mesh moves relative to the material. After every change of position between the mesh and the material, the state variables are interpolated to the new mesh position, which is referred to as advection. Large strain crystal plasticity models are based on the multiplicative decomposition of the total deformation gradient. Further, the stress is evaluated as a function of the thermoelastic strain, temperature, and other state variables. Advection of tensor quantities, such as the strain, is coupled with possibly significant advection errors. In an effort to reduce the advection errors, we develop two rate forms of an established dislocation density-based continuum model. To that end, we replace the multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient with the additive decomposition of the velocity gradient, and define the stress rate instead of the total stress. The Eulerian implementation is compared with Lagrangian calculations, and two numerical examples with severe deformation levels are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Spent Purolite A530E Resin with Implications for Long-Term Radioactive Contaminant Removal

Direct removal of pertechnetate anion (TcO4-) from the subsurface contaminated plumes at legacy nuclear weapons production sites, is effective remediation strategy to prevent their spread to adjacent aquifers but is also challenging because TcO4- is a trace component of the contaminated groundwater typically containing large access of other anionic constituents, such nitrate, sulfate, chloride and others. It can be achieved through ion exchange treatment using Purolite A530E resin which to date however has only been evaluated under laboratory conditions and many questions regarding its long-term operational performance remain. To address this need, here we report comprehensive characterization of the spent Purolite A530E resin which processed over 5.38x109 L of contaminated groundwater and successfully removed about 3.78 Ci of Tc-99 during four years of operation at the 200 West Pump & Treat facility at the US DOE Hanford site. This Tc-99 loading constitutes however only about 0.034% of the theoretical capacity of the resin which retained significant amounts of sulfate. Among other radioactive contaminants, small quantities of U-238, Co-60, and I-129 were retained by the resin. The total loading of iodine (combined 1-127 and I-129) on the spent resin exceeded that of Tc-99. To elucidate the mechanism of iodine retention, ion exchange behavior of iodide and iodate was investigated. Purolite A530E resin exhibited highly efficient uptake of iodide and only moderate affinity for iodate in accord with their Gibbs energy of hydration. Sorption isotherms for both anions obeyed Freundlich model.

Levitskaia, Tatiana G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Results from Recent NNSA and CEA Measurements of the 239 Pu(n, f) Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)/DP French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)/DAM agreement on cooperation on fundamental science is a U.S.-French collaborative effort to combine intellectual and experimental resources and further the relevant nuclear science. Recently, both the NNSA and CEA experimental teams performed high-statistics measurements of the 239 Pu(n, f) prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center, both of which were recently published in the journal Physical Review C. These separate measurements used the same experimental area and a common neutron detector array, but differ in many aspects, including background assessments, data acquisition systems and philosophies, fission detectors, and PFNS extraction techniques. Hence, some aspects of the experimental methods and associated uncertainties are highly correlated while others are independent. The results from both measurements broke new ground for PFNS measurements given their higher accuracy and more detailed study of corrections necessary for the measured quantity compared to existing literature measurements, and both will significantly impact PFNS nuclear data evaluations for the foreseeable future. Here, the focus of this work is to document a comparison of the results from these distinct measurements in terms of the acquired data, the PFNS results, and the measured average PFNS energies. While systematic differences between the PFNS results are present on the 1–3% level, the acquired data relative to each respective measurement at low incident neutron energies are in remarkable agreement, as are the conclusions regarding the magnitude and position of features in the PFNS relating to second-chance fission, third-chance fission, and pre-equilibrium neutron emission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗
DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Measurement of the Be 7 L / K Capture Ratio in Ta-Based Superconducting Tunnel Junctions

We report a high-statistics measurement of the L / K orbital electron capture ratio in 7 Be embedded in cryogenic Ta. The thin Ta film formed part of a high-resolution superconducting tunnel junction radiation detector that was used to identify the signals from different decay channels. The measured L/K capture ratio of 0.070(7) is significantly larger than the only previous measurement of this quantity and the theoretical predictions that include in-medium effects. This value is a uniquely sensitive probe of the 1s and 2s orbital overlaps with the nucleus and is of relevance to nuclear and atomic physics, as well as Li production in novae and other astrophysical scenarios. Furthermore, this is the first experiment that uses superconducting tunnel junctions for nuclear-recoil detection, opening a new experimental avenue for low-energy precision measurements with rare isotopes.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗
DOE OSTI2022

High manganese redox variability and manganate predominance in temperate soil profiles as determined by X-ray absorption spectroscopy

Manganese speciation is a key to understanding the fate of contaminants, nutrients, and organic matter in soils. To date, quantification of Mn species in bulk soils has been performed mainly by sequential extraction methods and rarely supported by spectroscopic analysis. In order to obtain quantitative information on the Mn species inventory of soils, we investigated 46 soil horizons (<2-mm fraction, 45.1–2,280 mg/kg Mn) of nine typical Central European soils (Cambisols, Chernozems, Luvisols, Podzol, Stagnosol) by chemical Mn analyses and Mn K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy, and related speciation results to major soil properties. Amounts of Mn 2+ , Mn 3+ , and Mn 4+ and the average oxidation state of Mn were evaluated by linear combination fitting (LCF) of X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra. Additionally, we used extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy to identify and quantify major Mn species. For this, EXAFS spectra of 20 organic and mineral soil samples from five soils (Cambisols, Chernozem, Luvisol) were analyzed by LCF and shell fitting. XANES analyses revealed a high Mn redox variability in organic surface layers, with Mn 2+ being most abundant (≤100%, $\overline{x}$ = 54%), followed by Mn 3+ (≤80%, $\overline{x}$ = 32%) and Mn 4+ (≤55%, $\overline{x}$ = 14%). Mineral soil horizons contained significantly less Mn 2+ (≤56%, $\overline{x}$ = 23%), about equal quantities of Mn 3+ (≤68%, $\overline{x}$ = 31%), and were enriched in Mn 4+ (≤89%, $\overline{x}$ = 46%). EXAFS analyses implied the presence of six major Mn species groups: manganates, organically complexed Mn, Mn(III) oxyhydroxides, silicate-bound Mn, Mn oxides without tunnel- or layer structure, and physisorbed Mn. In litter horizons, Mn was mainly present in organic complexes (58–91%, $\overline{x}$ = 78%) and as physisorbed Mn (≤15%), but individual horizons also comprised manganates, Mn(III) oxyhydroxides, and silicate-bound Mn. Manganates, likely mixtures of phyllomanganates with hexagonal layer symmetry and tectomanganates, dominated in all mineral soil horizons (37–94%, $\overline{x}$ = 67%). Correlation analysis showed that manganates dissolve completely during dithionite-citrate and acid ammonium oxalate extractions, and suggested that Mn 4+ -rich manganates preferentially form under less acidic soil conditions, partly by oxidation of organically complexed Mn(II), and that they are enriched in the soil clay fraction. Mineral soil horizons also contained minor quantities of organically complexed Mn (≤39%, $\overline{x}$ = 11%), silicate-bound Mn (≤30%, $\overline{x}$ = 8%), Mn(III) oxyhydroxides (≤37%, $\overline{x}$ = 7%), Mn oxides without tunnel- or layer structure (≤18%, $\overline{x}$ = 5%), and physisorbed Mn (≤14%, $\overline{x}$ <1%). The detection of Mn(III) oxyhydroxides such as feitknechtite (β-MnOOH) or groutite (α-MnOOH) as well as the spinel hausmannite (Mn 3 O 4 ) in acidic soils is remarkable, since their formation is normally linked to neutral or alkaline pH conditions. Minor contributions of silicate-bound Mn indicate the release of Mn from primary minerals already at early stages of soil formation, and low concentrations of physisorbed Mn suggest that exchangeable Mn is rapidly converted into manganates in oxic soils. In conclusion, the predominance of manganates in mineral soils has far-reaching implications for the functioning of soils and biogeochemical element cycles, as these minerals play an important role in metal binding, plant nutrition, and redox-related processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. 2. Quantifying the Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification of groundwater (GW) aquifer parameters is critical for efficient management and sustainable extraction of GW resources. These uncertainties are introduced by the data, model, and prior information on the parameters. We develop a Bayesian inversion framework that uses Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data to infer the laterally heterogeneous permeability of a transient linear poroelastic model of a confined GW aquifer. The Bayesian solution of this inverse problem takes the form of a posterior probability density of the permeability. Exploring this posterior using classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally prohibitive due to the large dimension of the discretized permeability field and the expense of solving the poroelastic forward problem. However, in many partial differential equation (PDE)-based Bayesian inversion problems, the data are only informative in a few directions in parameter space. For the poroelasticity problem, we prove this property theoretically for a one-dimensional problem and demonstrate it numerically for a three-dimensional aquifer model. Here we design a generalized preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (gpCN) MCMC method that exploits this intrinsic low dimensionality by using a low-rank-based Laplace approximation of the posterior as a proposal, which we build scalably. The feasibility of our approach is demonstrated through a real GW aquifer test in Nevada. The inherently two-dimensional nature of InSAR surface deformation data informs a sufficient number of modes of the permeability field to allow detection of major structures within the aquifer, significantly reducing the uncertainty in the pressure and the displacement quantities of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗