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At least 127 records · Page 7

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗

A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels

Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.

fuel design↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

LARC-13 polyimide adhesive bonding

The development of an addition-curing polyimide adhesive suitable for low pressure bonding without the generation of volatiles during cure is reported. LARC-13 is designed for bonding of polyimide matrix composites and of titanium to be used above 500 F, and is based on an oligomeric bis-nadimide which allows its processing at 50 psi or less, making it suitable for the bonding of fragile honeycomb sandwich structures. Few volatiles are evolved during its cure allowing large enclosed structures to be bonded, and it has high room and elevated temperature strengths and good strength retention after short terms up to 1100 F. LARC-13 was successfully used to bond the outer and inner skins of a polyimide/graphite wing shear panel for 500 F use, and for a short-term exposure up to 1100 F. Preparation of the adhesive, bonding, aging, and testing of lap shear and honeycomb samples are discussed.

Saint Clair, T. L.↗

Succession in a microbial mat community - A Gaian perspective

The contribution of prokaryotes to Gaian control systems is discussed. The survival of the Microcoleus-dominated stratified microbial community at Laguna Figueroa, after heavy rains flooded the evaporite flat with up to 3 m of water and deposited 5-10 cm of allocthonous sediment, demonstrates the resiliency of these communities to short-term perturbations while the microbial fossil record attests to their persistence over geologic time. It is shown that the great diversity of microbial species and their short generation time make them uniquely suited for Gaian mechanisms.

Stolz, J. F.↗

An accurate and efficient satellite long-term orbit predictor employing 'fictitious' mean orbital elements

By using Von Zeipel's generating function procedure the perturbing earth gravitational potential is averaged with respect to the fast variable (mean anomaly) and a set of 'fictitous' mean orbital elements which can be used as a long-term satellite orbit predictor is obtained. The set of elements is shown to be a function of the nonlinear square of the second zonal harmonic coefficient. It is found that the long-term orbit prediction using the 'fictitous' mean elements is as accurate as that using the osculating elements, but has a computing speed about two orders of magnitude faster. For short-term orbit predictions, the osculating elements approach must be used.

Tang, Charles C. H.↗

Time scale algorithms for an inhomogeneous group of atomic clocks

Through the past 17 years, the time scale requirements at the National Research Council (NRC) have been met by the unsteered output of its primary laboratory cesium clocks, supplemented by hydrogen masers when short-term stability better than 2 x 10(exp -12)tau(sup -1/2) has been required. NRC now operates three primary laboratory cesium clocks, three hydrogen masers, and two commercial cesium clocks. NRC has been using ensemble averages for internal purposes for the past several years, and has a realtime algorithm operating on the outputs of its high-resolution (2 x 10(exp -13) s at 1 s) phase comparators. The slow frequency drift of the hydrogen masers has presented difficulties in incorporating their short-term stability into the ensemble average, while retaining the long-term stability of the laboratory cesium frequency standards. We report on this work on algorithms for an inhomogeneous ensemble of atomic clocks, and on our initial work on time scale algorithms that could incorporate frequency calibrations at NRC from the next generation of Zacharias fountain cesium frequency standards having frequency accuracies that might surpass 10(exp -15), or from single-trapped-ion frequency standards (Ba+, Sr+,...) with even higher potential accuracies. The requirements for redundancy in all the elements (including the algorithms) of an inhomogeneous ensemble that would give a robust real-time output of the algorithms are presented and discussed.

Jacques, C.↗

Analyzing Martian winds and tracer concentrations using Mars Observer data

During the courses of a day, the Mars Observer spacecraft will acquire globally distributed profiles of the martian atmosphere. It is highly desirable that this data be assembled into synoptic weather maps (complete specifications of the atmospheric pressure, temperature, and winds at a given time), which can in turn be used as starting points in the study of many meteorological phenomena. Unfortunately, the special nature of the Mars Observer data presents several challenges above and beyond the usual difficult problem of data initialization. Mars Observer atmospheric data will consist almost exclusively of asynoptic vertical profiles of temperatures (or radiances) and pressures, whereas winds are generally in balance with horizontal gradients of these quantities (which will not be observed). It will therefore be necessary to resort to dynamical models to analyze the wind fields. As a rule, data assimilation into atmospheric models can result in the generation of spurious gravity waves, so special steps must be taken to suppress these. In addition, the asynoptic nature of the data will require a four-dimensional (space and time) data assimilation scheme. The problem is to find a full set of meteorological fields (winds and temperatures) such that, when marched forward in time in the model, they achieve a best fit (in the weighted least-squares sense) to the data. The proposed solution is to develop a model especially for the Mars Observer data assimilation problem. Gravity waves are filtered from the model by eliminating all divergence terms from the prognostic divergence equation. This leaves a diagnostic gradient wind relation between the rotational wind and the temperature field. The divergent wind is diagnosed as the wind required to maintain the gradient wind balance in the presence of the diabatic heating. The primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics (with three principal dependent variables) are thus reduced to a simpler system with a single prognostic equation for temperature - the variable that will be best observed. (This balance system was apparently first derived by Charney as a first-order Rossby number expansion of the equations of motion). Experience with a full primitive equation model of the martian atmosphere indicates that a further simplification is possible: at least for short-term integrations, the model can be linearized about the zonally symmetric basic state.

Houben, Howard C.↗

Effects of Combined Stressing on the Electrical Properties of Film and Ceramic Capacitors

Advanced power systems which generate, control, and distribute electrical power to many large loads are a requirement for future space exploration missions. The development of high temperature insulating materials and power components constitute a key element in systems which are lightweight, efficient, and are capable of surviving the hostile space environment. In previous work, experiments were carried out to evaluate film and ceramic capacitors for potential use in high temperature applications. The effects of thermal stressing, in air and without electrical bias, on the electrical properties of the capacitors as a function of thermal aging up to 12 weeks were determined. In this work, the combined effects of thermal aging and electrical stresses on the properties of teflon film and ceramic power capacitors were examined. The ceramic capacitors were thermally aged for 35 weeks and the teflon capacitors for 15 weeks at 200 C under full electrical bias and were characterized, on a weekly basis, in terms of their capacitance stability and electrical loss in the frequency range of 50 Hz to 100 kHz. DC leakage current measurements were also obtained. The results obtained represent the influence that short-term thermal aging and electrical bias have on the electrical properties of the power capacitors characterized.

Overton, Eric↗

Operational improvements of long-term predicted ephemerides of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRSs)

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) orbit determination and prediction are supported by the Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). TDRS System (TDRSS)-user satellites require predicted TDRS ephemerides that are up to 10 weeks in length. Previously, long-term ephemerides generated by the FDF included predictions from the White Sands Complex (WSC), which plans and executes TDRS maneuvers. TDRSs typically have monthly stationkeeping maneuvers, and predicted postmaneuver state vectors are received from WSC up to a month in advance. This paper presents the results of an analysis performed in the FDF to investigate more accurate and economical long-term ephemerides for the TDRSs. As a result of this analysis, two new methods for generating long-term TDRS ephemeris predictions have been implemented by the FDF. The Center-of-Box (COB) method models a TDRS as fixed at the center of its stationkeeping box. Using this method, long-term ephemeris updates are made semiannually instead of weekly. The impulse method is used to model more maneuvers. The impulse method yields better short-term accuracy than the COB method, especially for larger stationkeeping boxes. The accuracy of the impulse method depends primarily on the accuracy of maneuver date forecasting.

Kostoff, J. L.↗

Appendix A: The Impact of the HP 5071A on International Atomic Time

The international clock ensemble, which contributes to the generation of International Atomic Time (TAI and UTC) has improved dramatically over the last few years. The main change has been the introduction of a significant number of HP 5071A clocks. Of the 313 clocks contributing to TAI/UTC during 1994, 94 of these were HP 5071As. The environmental insensitivity of the HP 5071A clocks is more than an order of magnitude better than that of previously contributing clocks. This environmental insensitivity translates to outstanding long-term stability - with a typical flicker floor of a few x10(sup -15). in addition, there are now several hydrogen masers with cavity tuning contributing to TAI/UTC. These not only have outstanding short-term stability, but comparatively low frequency drifts and excellent intermediate-type frequency stability. By analyzing data available from the international ensemble, we have obtained two important results. First the frequency stability obtainable with an optimum algorithm is about 10(sup -15) for both the intermediate and long-term regions. It could be as good in the short-term (if time transfer measurement instabilities were reduced sufficiently. Second, with cooperation, this performance can be made available on an international basis in near real time. The recent enhancements in the contributing clocks are already providing a significant improvement in the accuracy with which UTC is made available to the world from several of the national timing centers, such as the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) and the US Naval Observatory (USNO).

Allan, David W.↗

Intelligent Planning and Scheduling for Controlled Life Support Systems

Planning in Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) requires special look ahead capabilities due to the complex and long-term dynamic behavior of biological systems. This project characterizes the behavior of CELSS, identifies the requirements of intelligent planning systems for CELSS, proposes the decomposition of the planning task into short-term and long-term planning, and studies the crop scheduling problem as an initial approach to long-term planning. CELSS is studied in the realm of Chaos. The amount of biomass in the system is modeled using a bounded quadratic iterator. The results suggests that closed ecological systems can exhibit periodic behavior when imposed external or artificial control. The main characteristics of CELSS from the planning and scheduling perspective are discussed and requirements for planning systems are given. Crop scheduling problem is identified as an important component of the required long-term lookahead capabilities of a CELSS planner. The main characteristics of crop scheduling are described and a model is proposed to represent the problem. A surrogate measure of the probability of survival is developed. The measure reflects the absolute deviation of the vital reservoir levels from their nominal values. The solution space is generated using a probability distribution which captures both knowledge about the system and the current state of affairs at each decision epoch. This probability distribution is used in the context of an evolution paradigm. The concepts developed serve as the basis for the development of a simple crop scheduling tool which is used to demonstrate its usefulness in the design and operation of CELSS.

Leon, V. Jorge↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has several important applications, including the model assessment application and the objective analysis application. In this project, we have focused on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP), the 500 hPa geopotential height, and the 315 K potential vorticity fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. The forecasts are generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system with and without ERS-1 scatterometer data. A great deal of novel work has been accomplished under the current contract. In broad terms, we have developed and tested an efficient algorithm for determining distortions. The algorithm and constraints are now ready for application to larger data sets to be used to determine the statistics of the distortion as outlined above, and to be applied in data analysis by using GEOS water vapor imagery to correct short-term forecast errors.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Control Design Strategies to Enhance Long-Term Aircraft Structural Integrity

Over the operational lifetime of both military and civil aircraft, structural components are exposed to hundreds of thousands of low-stress repetitive load cycles and less frequent but higher-stress transient loads originating from maneuvering flight and atmospheric gusts. Micro-material imperfections in the structure, such as cracks and debonded laminates, expand and grow in this environment, reducing the structural integrity and shortening the life of the airframe. Extreme costs associated with refurbishment of critical load-bearing structural components in a large fleet, or altogether reinventoring the fleet with newer models, indicate alternative solutions for life extension of the airframe structure are highly desirable. Increased levels of operational safety and reliability are also important factors influencing the desirability of such solutions. One area having significant potential for impacting crack growth/fatigue damage reduction and structural life extension is flight control. To modify the airframe response dynamics arising from command inputs and gust disturbances, feedback loops are routinely applied to vehicles. A dexterous flight control system architecture senses key vehicle motions and generates critical forces/moments at multiple points distributed throughout the airframe to elicit the desired motion characteristics. In principle, these same control loops can be utilized to influence the level of exposure to harmful loads during flight on structural components. Project objectives are to investigate and/or assess the leverage control has on reducing fatigue damage and enhancing long-term structural integrity, without degrading attitude control and trajectory guidance performance levels. In particular, efforts have focused on the effects inner loop control parameters and architectures have on fatigue damage rate. To complete this research, an actively controlled flexible aircraft model and a new state space modeling procedure for crack growth have been utilized. Analysis of the analytical state space model for crack growth revealed the critical mathematical factors, and hence the physical mechanism they represent, that influenced high rates of airframe crack growth. The crack model was then exercised with simple load inputs to uncover and expose key crack growth behavior. To characterize crack growth behavior, both "short-term" laboratory specimen test type inputs and "long-term" operational flight type inputs were considered. Harmonic loading with a single overload revealed typical exponential crack growth behavior until the overload application, after which time the crack growth was retarded for a period of time depending on the overload strength. An optimum overload strength was identified which leads to maximum retardation of crack growth. Harmonic loading with a repeated overload of varying strength and frequency again revealed an optimum overload trait for maximizing growth retardation. The optimum overload strength ratio lies near the range of 2 to 3 with dependency on frequency. Experimental data was found to correlate well with the analytical predictions.

Newman, Brett A.↗

Long-Term Durability Analysis of a 100,000+ Hr Stirling Power Convertor Heater Head

DOE and NASA have identified Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (SRPS) as the power supply for deep space exploration missions the Europa Orbiter and Solar Probe. As a part of this effort, NASA has initiated a long-term durability project for critical hot section components of the Stirling power convertor to qualify flight hardware. This project will develop a life prediction methodology that utilizes short-term (t < 20,000 hr) test data to verify long-term (t > 100,000 hr) design life. The project consists of generating a materials database for the specific heat of alloy, evaluation of critical hermetic sealed joints, life model characterization, and model verification. This paper will describe the qualification methodology being developed and provide a status for this effort.

Bartolotta, Paul A.↗

STOP Analysis and Optimization of a Very-Low-Distortion Space Instrument: HST WFC3 Case Study

New generation optical instruments with very demanding stability requirements are being proposed and developed for space applications. STOP (Structural-Thermal-Optical Performance) analysis and optimization is crucial in meeting the very tight distortion budgets of these instruments. This presentation outlines STOP analysis and optimization approach in the context of WFC3 (Wide-Field Camera 3), which is a radial instrument designed to replace the Wide-Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). WFC3 houses two separate channels, UVIS and IR, and will have greater throughput and sensitivity than WFPC2. WFC3 line-of-sight alignment budget for the UVIS and IR channels are as small as 10 and 20 milli-arcsec, respectively. Its optical bench is the most critical subsystem effecting the optical stability of WFC3 hence our effort concentrates on the design and analysis of the bench and its interfaces. Structural analysis has accompanied the mechanical design of the bench since the initial concept study. A high fidelity structural Finite Element Model (FEM) of the bench has been developed and used for minimizing its thermally induced distortions as well as sizing it to meet the stiffness and strength requirements of a Shuttle launch. The bench is a composite honeycomb panel box structure with a very low planar Coefficient of Thermal Expansion (CTE) of approximately 0.1 ppm/C. Optic components are mounted to super-INVAR inserts bonded into the panels. The bench is kinematically supported on three HST latches via interface struts, which are tailored to exhibit negative CTE to cancel out the thermal motions of the latches. The interface struts also incorporate flexure elements to minimize the mechanical distortions coming into the bench from its enclosure. Bench FEM is coupled with the enclosure FEM to quantify these effects. Short term or on-orbit STOP analysis includes distortion due to the temperature variations of the bench, the struts, and the enclosure. Long term or ground-to-orbit STOP analysis includes distortional effects of gravity release, desorption, and assembly in addition to the ground-to-orbit temperature variations. A rigorous testing program has been implemented for verifying the material properties and the analysis predictions. STOP analysis results demonstrate that both the short-term and the long-term alignment budgets will be met. Presentation will cover design and analysis details that are critical to a successful implementation of the STOP analysis and optimization process.

Kunt, Cengiz↗

A Frequency Transfer and Cleanup System for Ultra-High Stability at Both Long and Short Times for the Cassini Ka-Band Experiment

New radio science experiments, including a gravitational wave search and several atmospheric occultation studies, are planned for the Cassini Ka-band experiment. These experiments are made possible by reduced solar-induced phase fluctuations at the high-frequency (32 GHZ) of the radio link between the earth and the spacecraft. In order to match the improved link performance, a significant upgrade is under way to improve the frequency stability capabilities of NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN). Significant improvements are being undertaken in many areas, including antenna vibration and (wet) tropospheric calibration, in addition to frequency generation and distribution. We describe here the design and development of a system to provide a reference signal with the highest possible frequency stability for both long-term, short-term, and phase noise, at an antenna (DSS 25) that is remote from the frequency standards room at SPC-10 at the Goldstone site. The new technologies were developed in order to meet the very tight requirements. They are: 1) a Stabilized Fiber-Optic Distribution Assembly (SFODA) that includes active compensation of thermal variations to transfer long-term stability over 16 km of ordinary fiber-optic cable, and 2) a Compensated Sapphire Oscillator (CSO) that provides short-term performance in a cryocooled sapphire oscillator with ultra-high short-term stability and low phase noise.

Calhoun, M. D.↗