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NASA NTRS1986

Mechanisms and depths of atlantic transform earthquakes

Mechanisms and depths of 40 earthquakes on major transforms along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge are studied in order to identify events that deviate from the transform-parallel strike-slip motion. Long and short period waves and Rayleigh wave spectral amplitudes are used to analyze focal mechanisms, depths, source time functions, and seismic moments of earthquakes. The relationship between centroid depths and transform thermal structures is examined. The data reveal that transform earthquake centroid depths occur above the predicted 400 C isotherms and the oceanic intraplate depths extend to the 750 C isotherm. Slip rates inferred from seismic moment releases are compared to those predicted by plate motions and good correlation is detected. The difference in the centroid depths of transform and interplate seismicity indicates transforms are either weaker or higher temperatures than expected.

Engeln, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A feasibility study for long-path multiple detection using a neural network

Least-squares inverse filters have found widespread use in the deconvolution of seismograms and the removal of multiples. The use of least-squares prediction filters with prediction distances greater than unity leads to the method of predictive deconvolution which can be used for the removal of long path multiples. The predictive technique allows one to control the length of the desired output wavelet by control of the predictive distance, and hence to specify the desired degree of resolution. Events which are periodic within given repetition ranges can be attenuated selectively. The method is thus effective in the suppression of rather complex reverberation patterns. A back propagation(BP) neural network is constructed to perform the detection of first arrivals of the multiples and therefore aid in the more accurate determination of the predictive distance of the multiples. The neural detector is applied to synthetic reflection coefficients and synthetic seismic traces. The processing results show that the neural detector is accurate and should lead to an automated fast method for determining predictive distances across vast amounts of data such as seismic field records. The neural network system used in this study was the NASA Software Technology Branch's NETS system.

Feuerbacher, G. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uplift and Seismicity Driven by Magmatic Inflation at Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos Islands

Abstract Although episodes of surface uplift and elevated seismicity precede many volcanic eruptions, their temporal evolution is often complex, and apparently in contradiction to simple trends predicted by mechanical deformation models. Here, we use continuous global positioning system and seismic data recorded at Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands, to show how the edifice responded to stress changes driven by magma accumulation in a shallow sill. The rate of uplift varied during the 13 years and 6.5 m of inflation before the 2018 eruption. The number of earthquakes per unit of uplift increased exponentially with total uplift as the differential stress increased. Accordingly, the temporal seismicity rate varied in time as a function of both the total uplift and the uplift rate. The Gutenberg‐Richter b ‐value decreased as a function of total uplift. In the final six months before the eruption, a sequence of large ( M > 4) earthquakes regulated the state of stress on the fault, each being followed by 2–3 days of postseismic quiescence, and retarding the increase in seismicity rate. These earthquakes did not affect the overall uplift rate. Subsidence of 8.5 m accompanied the 2‐month eruption. On resumption of uplift, the number of earthquakes per unit of uplift was very low, and the b ‐value high, reflecting the relaxed stress state of the fault system. These observations show that crustal deformation becomes increasingly brittle at higher stress states, and supports theoretical models based on elastic‐brittle mechanics. They suggest that joint interpretation of deformation and seismicity is key for forecasting future eruptions in similar volcanic settings.

Bell, Andrew Forbes↗

DOE OSTI2020

Delegated Regressor, A Robust Approach for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Soil Radon Time Series Data

We propose a new method based on the idea of delegating regressors for predicting the soil radon gas concentration (SRGC) and anomalies in radon or any other time series data. The proposed method is compared to different traditional boosting e.g., Extreme Gradient Boosting (EGB) and simple regression methods e.g., support vector regressors with linear kernel and radial kernel in terms of accurate predictions. R language has been used for the statistical analysis of radon time series (RTS) data. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology predicts SRGC more accurately when compared to different traditional boosting and regression methods. The best correlation is found between the actual and predicted radon concentration for window size of 2 i.e., two days before and after the start of seismic activities. RTS data was collected from 05 February 2017 to 16 February 2018, including 7 seismic events recorded during the study period. Findings of study show that the proposed methodology predicts the SRGC with more precision, for all the window sizes, by overlapping predicted with the actual radon time series concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Relocation of the Seismicity of the Caucasus Region

Our objective is to improve the view of the seismicity in the Caucasus region using instrumental data between 1951 and 2019. To create a comprehensive catalog, we combine the bulletins of local agencies and the International Seismological Centre, and use an advanced single-event location algorithm, iLoc, to obtain better locations. We show that relocations with iLoc, using travel-time predictions from the 3D upper mantle velocity model, Regional Seismic Travel Time, improve the locations. Then, using the iLoc results as initial locations and the ground-truth events identified in the iLoc results as fix points, we apply Bayesloc, a multiple-event location algorithm, to simultaneously relocate the entire seismicity of the Caucasus region. Here we demonstrate that the simultaneous relocation of the seismicity with Bayesloc clarifies the location and geometry of major active structures accommodating ongoing convergence between the Arabian and Eurasian continents between the Black and Caspian Seas. Among our major findings is the confirmation of widespread seismicity in the mantle beneath the northern flank of the Greater Caucasus and central Caspian, resulting from north-dipping subduction of the Kura and South Caspian basins and the identification of a discrete band of crustal seismicity beneath the southern flank of the Greater Caucasus.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Laboratory

The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) in Louisiana and Mississippi is an Upper Cretaceous source rock formation sandwiched between the sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa sections. The TMS is believed to be the source rock for underlying prolific Tuscaloosa sand formation. The TMS has an unproven estimate of 7,000,000,000 bbls of recoverable oil while its current total average production is about 3,000 bbls of oil per day in 2017. In 2013 and 2014, more than 80 wells were drilled horizontally into the TMS that were fractured using multi-stage fracturing technology. The results from this have been mixed, but recent production for several wells show an appealing initial oil production rate of more than 1000 bbl/day. The preliminary core analysis by industry partners and a few literature studies shows that the TMS is one of the most clay-rich and sensitive shales to water. Due to these and other technical problems, there is high risk for the economic development of TMS compared to other shale plays. The experiences of major industrial players in the TMS show the necessity of open and collaborative efforts to better understand the critical gaps in the development of this challenging and potentially highly economic shale play to enable more cost-efficient and environmentally-sound recovery from this unconventional liquid-rich shale play. The overall objective of this project is to form a consortium of science and industry partners to address the following six major objectives using scientific and technical approaches: 1. To improve wellbore integrity by better understanding the sources of the wellbore instability issues, proposing innovative mud and cement design for the TMS. 2. To improve formation evaluation using laboratory techniques for the evaluation of mineralogical composition, organic content, and produced-water chemistry as well as well log and geophysical analysis. 3. To determine the role of geologic discontinuities on fracture growth and shale creep behavior using digital image correlation technique. 4. To investigate the application of stable CO 2 foam and super-hydrophobic proppants for improved reservoir stimulation. 5. To better understand the nature of water/hydrocarbon/CO 2 flow in clay and organic-rich formation and the role of water/fluid interaction on recovery. 6. To prepare better socio-economic environment for TMS development by community engagement. Subsequently, the TMS virtual laboratory conducted testing and analysis of various properties of rock and formation fluids from the TMS, including but not limited to the following: Analyzing reports and logs to better understand the source of wellbore instability in TMS wells; Experiments to design a customized cement based on TMS requirements; Experiments to obtain the mineralogical and geochemical composition of TMS samples; Seismic analysis of TMS geophysical data to better predict total organic carbon (TOC) content and brittleness in TMS; Well log analysis to better estimate the TOC and geo-mechanical properties of TMS; Experiments on formation water to understand the chemistry of produced water; Experiments to determine the role of lamination and natural fractures on fracture propagation or rock deformation using digital image correlation technique in in-direct tensile tests, semi-circular bend test and creep tests Experiments to determine the stability and rheological properties of nanoparticle-stabilized CO 2 foam in TMS rock samples; Experiments to determine fluid dynamics in un-propped TMS fractures and the role of nano-coating of proppants on fluid dynamics in fractures with proppants; Micro-fluidics experiments to enhance the understanding of fluid dynamics in tight liquidrich pores with high clay content; Socio-economic studies to better engage communities in TMS development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Terrestrial environment (Climatic) criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development, 1977 revision

Guidelines are provided on terrestrial environment data specifically applicable for NASA aerospace vehicles and associated equipment development. Information is included on the general distribution of natural environment extremes in the conterminous United States that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components. Atmospheric attenuation was investigated since certain earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the earth's atmosphere. A summary of climatic extremes for worldwide operational needs is also included. The latest available information on probable climatic extremes is presented with information on atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and on a mathematical model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth. Cloud phenomena are also considered.

Kaufman, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Guidelines for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development, 1993 Revision

Guidelines on terrestrial environment data specifically applicable in the development of design requirements/specifications for NASA aerospace vehicles and associated equipment development are provided. The primary geographic areas encompassed are the John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL; Vandenberg AFB, CA; Edwards AFB, CA; Michoud Assembly Facility, New Orleans, LA; John C. Stennis Space Center, MS; Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX; and the White Sands Missile Range, NM. In addition, a section was included to provide information on the general distribution of natural environmental extremes in the conterminous United States that may be needed to specify design criteria in the transportation of space vehicle subsystems and components. A summary of climatic extremes for worldwide operational needs is also included. Although not considered as a specific vehicle design criterion, a section on atmospheric attenuation was added since sensors on certain Earth orbital experiment missions are influenced by the Earth's atmosphere. The latest available information on probable climatic extremes is presented and supersedes information presented in TM X-64589, TM X-64757, TM X-78118, and TM-82473. Information is included on atmospheric chemistry, seismic criteria, and on a mathematical model to predict atmospheric dispersion of aerospace engine exhaust cloud rise and growth. There is also a section on atmospheric cloud phenomena. The information is recommended for use in the development of aerospace vehicle and associated equipment design and operational criteria, unless otherwise stated in contract work specifications. The environmental data are primarily limited to information below 90 km.

Johnson, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fracture Caging to Limit Induced Seismicity

Geothermal resources offer a stable low-carbon energy source. However, geothermal sites can collocate with the hypocenters of large-magnitude seismic events. Large seismic events pose a risk to public safety and are therefore a liability for efforts to develop geothermal resources. In this work, we propose “fracture caging” to limit induced seismic event magnitudes and present evidence from numerical model predictions, laboratory experiments, and field observations. Fracture caging involves drilling tactical production wells around a geothermal injection zone to contain fluids in fracture-dominated flow systems. Prior to our work, the effect of small wells on the growth of large fractures and on flow through fractures was subject to debate. Our work shows that production wells can impede fracture growth and contain high-pressure fluids in fracture-dominated rocks. This containment offers a mechanism to limit induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Crustal permeability generated through microearthquakes is constrained by seismic moment

We link changes in crustal permeability to informative features of microearthquakes (MEQs) using two field hydraulic stimulation experiments where both MEQs and permeability evolution are recorded simultaneously. The Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model effectively predicts permeability evolution and ultimate permeability increase. Our findings confirm the form of key features linking the MEQs to permeability, offering mechanistically consistent interpretations of this association. Transfer learning correctly predicts permeability evolution of one experiment from a model trained on an alternate dataset and locale, which further reinforces the innate interdependency of permeability-to-seismicity. Models representing permeability evolution on reactivated fractures in both shear and tension suggest scaling relationships in which changes in permeability (Δk) are linearly related to the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk ∝ M. This scaling relation rationalizes our observation of the permeability-to-seismicity linkage, contributes to its predictive robustness and accentuates its potential in characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydromechanical impact of basement rock on injection-induced seismicity in Illinois Basin

Abstract The common explanation of observed injection-induced microseismicity is based on the measured stress state at the injection interval and the assumption that it remains the same in the vicinity. We argue here that representing the stress state in different geologic formations over the injection site with the single Mohr’s circle is insufficient due to local stratigraphic features and contrast in compressibilities of the involved formations. The role of hydromechanical coupling in the microseismic response is also crucial for the proper assessment of the problem. Thoroughly monitored Illinois Basin Decatur Project revealed the majority of CO 2 injection-associated microseismic events being originated in the crystalline basement. Even though basement faults can serve as the conduits for fluid flow—the predicted pressure increase seems to be insufficient to trigger seismicity. To address this issue, accurate laboratory measurements of rock properties from the involved formations are conducted. The pre-injection stress state and its evolution are evaluated with the hydromechanically coupled numerical model. It appears that the presence of an offset in a stiff competent layer affects the stress state in its vicinity. Therefore, both the pre-injection stress state and its evolution during the fluid injection should be addressed during the induced seismicity assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Diffusivity and the Influence of Heterogeneity on Injection‐Induced Seismicity

Abstract The spatiotemporal patterns of injection‐induced seismicity (IIS) are commonly interpreted with the concept of a triggering front, which propagates in a diffusion‐like manner with an associated diffusivity parameter. Here, we refer to this diffusivity as the “seismic diffusivity.” Several previous studies implicitly assume that seismic diffusivity is equivalent to the effective hydraulic diffusivity of the subsurface, which describes the behavior of the mean pressure field in heterogeneous porous media. Seismicity‐based approaches for hydraulic characterization or simulations of IIS using domains of homogeneous equivalent porous media are implicitly based on this assumed equivalence. However, seismicity is expected to propagate with the threshold triggering pressure, and thus not be controlled by the evolution of the mean pressure field. We present numerical simulations of fluid injection to compare the seismic and effective hydraulic diffusivities in heterogeneous formations (including fractured rock). The numerical model combines uncoupled, linear pressure diffusion with the Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion to simulate IIS. We demonstrate that connected pathways of relatively high hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous media (particularly in fractured rock domains) allow the threshold triggering pressure to propagate more rapidly than predicted by the effective hydraulic diffusivity. As a result, the seismic diffusivity is greater than the effective hydraulic diffusivity in heterogeneous porous media, possibly by an order of magnitude or more. Additionally, we present a case study of IIS near Soultz‐sous‐Forêts where seismic diffusivity is found to be at least one order of magnitude larger than the effective hydraulic diffusivity.

Haagenson, Ryan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reverse Time Migration of Explosion-generated Infrasound and Ground-Coupled Airwaves

Accurately locating sources of seismic and infrasonic energy is integral to global monitoring of earthquakes and explosions. Infrasound arrivals times can be used to calculate the origins of events that generate acoustic energy. Picking times of emergent infrasound arrivals, however, can be difficult and prone to uncertainty. Reverse time migration (RTM) is a waveform based location method that does not rely on picked arrival times. Here we use RTM to locate a known chemical explosion that generated acoustic and acoustic-to-seismic signals on 26 and 108 receivers, respectively. All location predictions are less than 24 km from the known location with time errors of less than three minutes. We find strong overall agreement between our results and those of existing RTM and arrival time based methods. Our initial results suggest that RTM is a promising method of event location using acoustic arrivals recorded on both infrasound and seismic instrumentation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS2012

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

A method to enhance and detect subtle seismic arrivals typically used in terrestrial seismology, is to stack seismograms that have been time shifted to the predicted arrival time of a hypothetical phase of interest. We previously applied this array processing approach to the Apollo lunar seismic data, providing the first direct constraint on the size and state of the Moon's core. The method used travel time predictions made from pre-existing estimates of the crust and mantle velocities and densities and assumed that each of the Moons layers ia a uniform shell with no lateral variation or heterogeneity. In reality the structural properties of the Moon are likely inhomogeneous and vary both laterally and with depth.

Weber, Renee C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning-accelerated data assimilation and forecasting workflow for commercial-scale geologic carbon storage

Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast data assimilation-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates geologic properties and predicts reservoir performance with quantified uncertainty from pressure history and CO 2 plumes interpreted through seismic inversion. As the most computationally expensive component in such a workflow is reservoir simulation, we developed surrogate models to predict dynamic pressure and CO 2 plume extents under multi-well injection. The surrogate models employ deep convolutional neural networks, specifically, a wide residual network and a residual U-Net. The workflow is validated against a flat threedimensional reservoir model representative of a clastic shelf depositional environment. Intelligent treatments are applied to bridge between quantities in a true-3D reservoir model and those in a single-layer reservoir model. The workflow can complete history matching and reservoir forecasting with uncertainty quantification in less than one hour on a mainstream personal workstation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attention Network Forecasts Time-to-Failure in Laboratory Shear Experiments

Rocks under stress deform by creep mechanisms that include formation and slip on small-scale internal cracks. Intragranular cracks and slip along grain contacts release energy as elastic waves termed acoustic emissions (AE). AEs are thought to contain predictive information that can be used for fault failure forecasting. Here, we present a method using unsupervised classification and an attention network to forecast labquakes using AE waveform features. Our data were generated in a laboratory setting using a biaxial shearing device with granular fault gouge intended to mimic the conditions of tectonic faults. Here, we analyzed the temporal evolution of AEs generated throughout several hundred laboratory earthquake cycles. We used a Conscience Self-Organizing Map (CSOM) to perform topologically ordered vector quantization based on waveform properties. The resulting map was used to interactively cluster AEs. We examined the clusters over time to identify those with predictive ability. Finally, we used a variety of LSTM and attention-based networks to test the predictive power of the AE clusters. By tracking cumulative waveform features over the seismic cycle, the network is able to forecast the time-to-failure (TTF) of lab earthquakes. Our results show that analyzing the data to isolate predictive signals and using a more sophisticated network architecture are key to robustly forecasting labquakes. In the future, this method could be applied on tectonic faults to monitor earthquakes and augment early warning systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing

Note: This is the final public release version of PNNL-31671 Draft, which was previously released to the sponsor for review. The intent is the public release version will be PNNL-31671. There are no significant changes from the earlier draft version. This unlimited distribution report is the deliverable for M3SF-21PN010202014: Modeling and Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Testing. This report summarizes the modeling, analysis, and test plan support completed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the spent nuclear fuel dry storage system seismic test plan through May of 2021. Test plan preparation is planned to continue until the seismic test is completed in July of 2022. This report covers preliminary structural dynamic model development and computer-aided design of test hardware. Based on preliminary modeling, the strongest earthquakes under consideration in this test program provide mechanical loading on the spent nuclear fuel that is comparable to the 30 cm cask drop scenario, although the loads do not appear to be strong enough to cause significant permanent deformation of the fuel assembly spacer grids. The potential for grid deformation during the test will be assessed when the proposed shake table motion becomes available. The weakest earthquakes considered in this test are expected to be comparable to the mechanical loads witnessed in the multimodal transportation test of 2017. The horizontal canister system is predicted to provide nearly-uniform loading condition on the fuel assemblies it contains, while the vertical cask system is predicted to cause non-uniform dynamic loads on the fuel assemblies. In the horizontal case, gravity keeps the fuel assemblies in contact with one basket wall surface unless the loads are strong enough to cause a separation. In the vertical case, the fuel assemblies are relatively long and slender, and seismic motion in the anticipated test range is predicted to cause the assemblies to lean, tilt, and impact the basket walls throughout the seismic event. These gap closures are a nonlinear force transmission condition, so the vertical system is expected to have more variation and variability than the horizontal system. While the horizontal system is expected to have a relatively more linear response than the vertical system, there is still the potential for nonlinear behavior in the horizontal system because the fuel assemblies are free to slide, bounce, and impact the basket walls if the seismic loads are strong enough. One major conclusion of this study is that the use of mixed fuel assemblies in the canister will be acceptable. There are differences in overall system response when the mass, center of gravity, or gaps are changed, but the changes in response are within the bounds of a system that contains completely homogeneous fuel assemblies. One important observation is that the loading for each individual fuel assembly within the vertical canister is expected to be different from that of the others because of nonlinearities in the system. The horizontal canister system is expected to have a more uniform and more predictable response than the vertical canister, making variations in fuel assembly characteristics easier to account for. One important recommendation that comes from this modeling work is to repeat some of the strongest shake tests at different angles, particularly for the vertical cask system. Modeling predicts that strong seismic motion will cause the fuel assemblies to close initial gaps and impact the fuel basket walls when the canister is in the vertical cask configuration. Each shake test will impose a pre-defined three-dimensional time history on the cask system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗